Yesterday was a pretty good day for upsets. Untapable got drubbed by Bayern (as did every other horse in the Haskell). Goldencents was held at bay by Big Macher. Every time this happens it almost seems to become personal. And then the excuses fly.

• Untapable was wide around both turns.
• Goldencents was at the wrong distance.
• Bayern fell into a highly speed favoring track.
• Goldencents didn’t get into the bit until late in the race.
• Social Inclusion was apparently suffering Lasix withdrawal (some humor) and was fractious in the gate, bothering Untapable.

I have an interesting explanation. Bayern and Big Macher were better horses in those races. Just because the crowd makes a horse the favorite doesn’t mean the horse is the best horse IN THAT RACE. The crowd is wrong about that 65% of the time.

Untapable was never going to live up to her hype in a field with the talent the Haskell had.  In her last race she swamped Princess Violet, a horse still eligible for NW2X and America, a horse eligible for NW2L.   My Miss Sophia and Unbridled Forever, the place and show horses from the Kentucky Oaks aren’t a lot more distinguished. I’m just going to ask you to think about this. Substitute Bayern for Untapable in the Mother Goose and speculate on the winning lengths.

Untapable was more an example of a hype horse, a horse people just wanted to see succeed. Anyone who said Untapable was completely outless in the Haskell would have been pilloried on social media. Is she a prize filly? You bet. Is she Rachel Alexandra? Not yet.

I’ve been in horseracing long enough to know that sometimes horses lose because they get poor trips. Sometimes they lose because they run into a bias that is against their running style. Sometimes they lose because they are sprinters trying to get a route and sometimes they are routers trying to sprint. And apparently they lose because other owners cheat and enter their fresh horse against your tired runner. But most of the time, horse lose because they are not as good as the winner.

It’s human nature to think you lost because things went wrong. But I, for one, am kind of tired of reading about all the reasons why the favorite lost. How about trying this one on for size. There was a better horse in the race today.