It’s the last day of the AQU main track meeting for 2015 so no shameless promotion of my book, The Kingpins of Riverbend. Yesterday was one of my better days at the meet, when one of my choices finished first in every race, and two of my choices made up the exacta in 8 of 9 races. The day was capped with Winston Kay winning his first race on longshot River Knight, triggering a $517 Pick 4 for $0.50. While I have to handicap anyway to play, I’m not sure there are many people that play based on my picks, so starting next week I’ll only be providing picks for the weekend races in New York, and it will just be the numbers. If I play during the week I’ll tweet out my plays. I’m going to focus my efforts on my blog and I’ll be working on two books this winter, one on horseracing and another fictional novel.
There is an unwritten rule in horseracing. You don’t ask another horseplayer how much he made, for a day or for a year. If he wants to offer, like Andy Beyer did in his book My $50,000 Year at the Races, fine. I’ll offer this. If you followed me all year, you probably got the sense that I had a decent year, and I did. First, I don’t bet every race. As I have said many, many times, if you allocate 50% of your bankroll to win bets, 25% of your bankroll to exactas, and 25% to any of the other bets, and you only bet when there is a value overlay, you may not be able to make a living at the track, but you can make a decent profit. I play one track a day, and most often I’m only playing three or four races, sometimes more, sometimes less. Second, I come up with three contenders in a race, AND I WILL BET ANY OF THE THREE TO WIN IF I BELIEVE THEM TO BE SUFFICIENTLY OVERLAYED. I have given horseplayers a chart so they can tell if exactas are overlayed. You don’t have to do any more work than compare real prices to overlay prices.
I have consistently railed against being selection oriented instead of value oriented. In my opinion, one of the great mistakes horseplayes make is to focus on only one horse in a race. Even the best public handicappers don’t pick more than 25-30% winners on top, and plenty of those are betting underlays. There is only one measure of success, and it is ROI. The aggregate crowd picks 35% winners, yet a bet on every one would produce a negative ROI. I’m not betting 5/2 horses I think should be 5/2, but I’m betting 8/1 horses I think should be 5/2 every time. Trust me, a good handicapper can assess a horse’s chances with uncanny accuracy given enough experience. Sometimes the crowd makes it easy. On Friday my third choice in the race was 15-1. You didn’t even have to make a line to realize that horse was well overlayed, and as someone noted, you only have to hit 1 in 15 of those to break even, and if you are good at evaluating overlays, you are sure to do better than that.
Playing horses is like anything else. If you work harder than the next guy and learn from your mistakes, you can be a winner. Give yourself all the credit for your success, but take equal responsibility for your failures. Most of all set your expectations realistically.
There is a lot of negativity about racing, and much of it is legitimate. The take is too high and field size is often too small. There are computer betting programs and rebate whales. Frankly, I don’t give a shit if you believe me or not, but I make profit at the track. Since I give away everything for free, I don’t need to inflate my success. I publish my picks every day so anyone who wants to check me, have at it. It is possible to win over an extended period, even with the obstacles, as long as you have discipline, and you get into the right pools.
I understand a lot of people wouldn’t enjoy playing like I do – one track, maybe half the races at the track in a day. I rarely bet a Pick 6 (at AQU Saturday, no one hit the Pick 6, but my blog published the winners of each of the P6 races) and sometimes I regret the decision, but I won’t make major adjustments to my M.O. I have a weakness for Pick 3’s and 4’s, and they constitute a good part of my 25% other bets, along with trifectas, but I’ve trained myself not to jump into those pools unless I have a very solid opinion. I try to keep 75% of my money in the win and exacta pools and 25% looking to catch some boxcars.
A lot of people enjoy betting multiple tracks and all kinds of lottery bets, and I’m sure there are people who do that and also make profit. What I do works for me, but I wouldn’t be so arrogant as to think there is only one way to play. The only thing I’ll say is that you cannot conflate betting with winning. You can’t convince yourself that a lot of action, regardless of the outcome is more satisfying than betting in a way that leaves you in the black. Focusing $300 on win and exacta is most likely to give you a better chance at profit than dropping $300 into the Pick 6 pool. That’s where I’ve ended up. I’m happy with a balance sheet healthily in the black even if I limit myself to half the races at NYRA. I’m long past needing the action. I can enjoy a race I’m invested in, and I can enjoy a race where I’m just spectating.
As I said, I don’t give a shit if you believe me, and I don’t give a shit if you take my advice. I shared what works for me. Take it for what it is worth. If you want more detail, ask me and I’ll be happy to answer any questions. I’ve written excellent articles about how to handicap, how to set win lines, and how to bet exactas. The sections in my blog on handicapping are as good as anything out there because I’ve been a published, professional horseracing author for over 25 years, and believe me I’ve gotten plenty of feedback. I’ve tried to do a lot for horseplayers with my handicapping articles and my blog and no one has had to pay a dime. Use it or not, it’s up to you.
Meanwhile, Sunday’s picks for AQU.
Race 1 2-8-1
Race 2 5-1A-3
Race 3 3-7-5
Race 4 9-2-4
Race 5 4-8-3-1
Race 6 10-4-12
Race 7 6-4-9-7
Race 8 5-3-7-1
Race 9 11-6-3