For those of you who read Horseplayer Magazine before its unfortunate demise you might have recognized that for the last three years of publication I was the designated handicapper for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. As many of my followers know, I am probably most prolific handicapping on the turf. Turf racing is not simply about the finishing fraction, but it is a lot about pace. This year’s Breeder’s Cup starts with the Juvenile Turf.

Race 6      Juvenile Turf

The Juvenile Turf is an ultra competitive affair this year. I’m looking for a few different keys in this race. First, I’d like to see some experience, say 3-5 races. For the North American Horses, I want a runner that showed well in the better known preps – the Summer, the With Anticipation, and the Pilgrim. While the Bourbon was a Grade 3, I’m not sure this year it attracted the same quality field as the others, but since it was at Keeneland, it can’t be ignored. Let’s go through the contenders.

Azar was the winner of the With Anticipation and a hard luck runner-up in the Pilgrim. He bobbled at the start of the race, was in the five path around the turn and dug in gamely to lose by a short neck to Isotherm, who chose to pass this race. After the start it looked to me like Velazquez was having a hard time relaxing him, and that could be a little worrisome. However, if you look at the race shape, the horses running 1, 2, 3, 5 early finished 5th, 8th, 9th and 10th, while the first four across the line were 8th, (Azar), 9th and 7th. In other words, Azar held up very well. He doesn’t look like a 10-1 horse to me, and only the need to lead Manhattan Dan, Airoforce, and Hollywood Don seem to be the front running types. He should get a good tracking position and should be the first one to move gunning for home.

Cymric is the John Gosden entrant here and Gosden has had great success in this race. He’s not afraid to bring one of his better colts to this race. Cymric just missed in a Group 1 at Longchamp and was in the money in a Group 3 in August. In the Longchamp race he was coming fast at the end and lost to a horse that has three wins in three starts. He’s got a lot of positives and is the must-use Euro.

Camelot Kitten was in one of the outer posts in the Bourbon and wound up with an ugly trip. He was off a little slow, was bumped but in the stretch looked spectacular, closing powerfully to nab the place. He’s stuck outside again, but with a better break he could be a big danger. Chad Brown is quickly becoming the number one turf trainer in the east and given the breeding (Kitten’s Joy) he should be both apt on a firm or soft course and good at the distance.

Conquest Daddyo was the winner of the Summer Stakes at Woodbine. He was off slow in that race, but showed good patience and was drawing away late. Mark Casse is a top flight conditioner and the Woodbine race has always been a good indicator of contenders in this race. He’s one I could put on top.

Airoforce ran well in the Bourbon. He came out of the 13 post, rushed quickly into contention, stayed wide most of the race and looked strong pulling free in the stretch. His figure isn’t as high as some of the other contenders, but he is eligible to improve and if he does he has a realistic chance. I’d be happier if he had another race or two, but I can’t pitch him out of hand.

Shogun is one of the two Aidan O’Brien runners expected to start in this race. In general, you don’t expect the Euro’s to bring their A Team to the Juvenile races, and Shogun does look a cut below the top Euro two-year olds. He’s raced in a Group 1 and Group 2 and today he adds blinkers and Lasix. I’d see him as a minor contender, but I might use him in some backholes.

Birchwood fits at least part of the pattern of a Breeder’s Cup contender. He’s experienced, he’s a Group 2 winner, and Group 1 placed. However, he doesn’t have experience around two turns,  and his pace figures are not up to the level of some others in here. He won’t be on top of my tickets, but he’s another I can use underneath.

This is definitely a competitive race, especially considering there are some horses with big eligibility to improve. There are a lot of contenders, but I think the solid horses are Azar and Cymric. I might be wrong, but I have a really strong positive feeling about Camelot Kitten, and at the potential odds I can imagine making a win bet. In the second tier of contenders is Conquest Daddyo and Airoforce. Birchwood and Shogun would be potential underneath horses.

Race 7     Dirt Mile

In the 2014 Dirt Mile, defending champion Goldencents ran a powerful race to repeat. In that race Vicar’s In Trouble sprinted fast out of the gate, leaving Godencents with work to do to get to the front. He drove up the rail and had the lead by the time they hit the turn, eventually burying a stubborn Vicar’s In Trouble in fractions of 22, 44:4, and 109.1.  Coming out of the turn it looked like Tapiture had the measure of Goldencents. Those were killing fractions and only the classiest of horses would have even had a chance to stay. In mid-stretch Godencents looked like he might be wobbling a bit and as Tapiture came up on him he showed the heart of a champion, digging down deep, finding another gear and pulling away at the wire. Goldencents was the very definition of class – running a fast pace and sticking to the end. Is there a horse like that in this year’s version?

Liam’s Map may very well be the shortest priced favorite in this year’s Breeder’s Cup and he has a lot of what Goldencents had – speed and finish. His figures stand out over this field and Todd Pletcher has brought him to this race perfectly. Had it not been for an other-worldy run by Honor Code in the Whitney he’d be coming into the race unblemished in 2015. The question is not whether he is the fastest horse in the race, but if there is any horse that can beat him. He’s 3 for 3 at the mile distance and it will take a super effort to deny him 4 for 4.

Red Vine has come to hand for Christophe Clement and is another coming to the race in peak form. In his last race, the key prep Kelso Mile, he stumbled at the break and was squeezed back. Instead of backing out he worked hard to finishing second, beating top stakes runner Honor Code in the process. There is a ton of speed in the race, and much like Tapiture last year, Red Vine looks he might benefit from that.

Tapiture only has one win since giving Goldencents a run for his money, but it was a month ago in the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill. Since then he’s been working steadily at Keeneland. I have to believe Asmussen has been pointing Tapiture to this race all year in an effort to get redemption for last year’s near miss. I’m looking for him to run that same race and we’ll see if Liam’s Map is more vulnerable than Goldencents was last year.

Lea has been in nothing but graded races for the last two years, winning his only three starts on the dirt at the mile distance. Clement initially was pointing the horse at the turf mile, but decided the weather might not cooperate so he elected to send him here. He looks like he took really well to the Keeneland dirt. Perhaps a step slower than the top choice, but still a threat off his best.

Wicked Strong has been knocking around with top graded runners for a while, although in 18 starts he has only produced 3 wins. He was third to Liam’s Map in the Woodward and second to Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and his last win came as a three year old in the Jim Dandy. He’s certainly a talented colt, but it would hard to be confident given his lack of wins.

There is nothing on paper to suggest Liam’s Map should not win this race, but then again Goldencents last year looked equally unbeatable as well, and Tapiture gave him a scare. If Liam’s Map falls, the two horses most likely to pick up the pieces are Red Vine and Tapiture. Lea and Wicked Strong seem most likely destined for minor awards.

Race 8      Juvenile Fillies Turf

This race has not been kind to the European Runners, with only one win in the seven runnings of this event. The European fillies have more last place finishes than top three. In fact, the only win was the year the Breeder’s Cup disallowed Lasix in the Juvenile races. Last year’s winner, Lady Eli, was a solid favorite and proved much the best for Chad Brown. In reality, very few of the top Euro runners are pointed at this race, instead opting for the more lucrative European Oaks. The key Euro preps are the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp and the Shadwell Fillies Mile at Ascot, while the key American  preps are the Natalma at Woodbine, the Miss Grillo at Belmont, and the Jessamine at Keeneland. The Surfer Girl at Santa Anita may someday be the equivalent of those races, but the reality is that the best turf fillies are racing back east.

Catch a Glimpse was the winner of the Natalma in wire to wire fashion in a good finishing time. One of the advantages the Americans have is that they have already negotiated two turns, while the Euros have mainly run on the straight. She’s in a good spot and should be once again leading the field from the start. Mark Casse has had good success sending his juvenile fillies to the BC turf. She may have to fight off challenges from Ruby Notion and Nemoralia to her outside, but going in she looks like the one to beat, but certainly doesn’t look unbeatable.

Harmonize was the winner of the Jessamine at Keeneland and that race has been a productive prep. In that race she was shuffled to the back of the field, circled everyone and nailed the victory, a really impressive run. She won the P G Johnson, Saratoga’s top filly turf race, in her penultimate start. Bill Mott is well known as taking some time to get his horses in racing shape, and the fact that he had this one ready from the get go is a very positive sign. She is the top U.S. horse in the race.

Alice Springs is one of the top two Euros in the race. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has not had good luck bringing his runners to the Juvenile Filles Turf, finishing poorly with a number of runners that came in looking good. . She hesitated at the start in the Moyglare but still finished well, running behind the top two fillies in Europe, Minding and Ballydoyle.. In the subsequent two races at Newmarket she finished a close fourth in the Group 1 Cheverley Park Stakes and then dusted a field in the restricted Tattersalls Millions stakes. Like many of the Euros, she is getting a dose of Lasix before the race, and while she’s never been the mile, her breeding suggests it shouldn’t be a problem.

Illuminate goes for Richard Hannon and Frankie Dettori. She’s ranked as the fifth best juvenile filly in Europe, but like Alice Springs she has never been in a route or around turns.  Unlike Alice Springs, her breeding is far more suspect at the mile. With the connections she can’t be ignored.

Thrilled is one of a couple coming out of the Miss Grillo a month ago. She finished behind Harmonize in the P G Johnson after having a small amount of trouble at the start, and barely missed in the Miss Grillo. She has a good running style for this race and she’s improving with every start. This is not Pletcher’s speciality but he’s still a quality trainer.

Tin Type Gal won the Miss Grillo directly after breaking her maiden. In that race she finished strongly to barely nip Thrilled. Motion has brought her slowly to hand and she’s one of a few with the figures to make an impact.

Despite having two Euros in the top four, I’m very wary given their overall record. Catch a Glimpse comes in off the fastest race, but it remains to be seen if her front running style will work at KEE. I’m disappointed not to have any Chad Brown horses in the top group, but breaking from the outside posts means they will have to overcome difficult trips. Still, Pricedtoperfection was not far behind Tin Type Gal in her maiden race and may turn out to be a good one in the future. Harmonize is another very solid choice, and may turn out to be the value. This should be a good race, and given the past history, a big price is not totally out of the question.

Race 9     The Distaff

The Distaff has produced a number of Eclipse Award winners, including last year’s dominant filly, Untapable. Unfortunately she will not be back to defend her title, so this year we will crown a new distaff champion. I’m looking for solid Grade 1 winners, especially those that have shown well at the distance.

Got Lucky is one of my upset selections in the Distaff. No question Pletcher has her wound up for this race and she is the best of the closers in the race. She was able to negotiate a ground saving trip last time out, and she may have a tougher time coming out of the 12 post, but given the amount of speed in the race she may be able to find the spot she wants early. She’s five of seven first or second at the distance, and showed a keen liking for Keeneland in the Spinster last out.

I’m a Chatterbox won the Cotillion at Parx last out, the same race that prepped Ashado and Untapable for their wins in the distaff. Although the record says she hasn’t won at the distance, she beat Curlina in the CCA Oaks only to be disqualified to second. She showed that wasn’t a fluke by once again beating Curlina in the Alabama. She broke her maiden at Keeneland and has been working well in preparation for this race. She’s a Grade 1 horse and should be in a perfect spot for the stretch run.

Sheer Drama might have been more of a contender had she not gotten stuck on the far outside. In her last ten races she’s finished out of the money exactly once, and this year has not been worse than second. She’s 4 of 5 first or second at the distance. Her last two Grade 1 wins in the Personal Ensign and the Delaware Handicap have given her figures that would top the field if she can repeat them. We’ll see if she can find the right spot and get the best of the field.

Wedding Toast is a tepid 4-1 favorite, speaking to the competitiveness of this race. Kieran McLaughlin has coaxed two Grade 1 wins out of the horse in her last two races, but both were against short fields. I’m somewhat ambiguous about the horse. On the one hand, she has run some good figures in the two Grade 1 wins, but they aren’t head and shoulders above some others in the field. She’s won all three of her mile and an eighth starts, the last two in wire to wire fashion. However, in this race, there are loads of potential challengers for the front. Stopchargingmaria, Calamity Kate, and Yahilwa may all be fighting for the front. Wedding Toast is a quality filly, but she’ll be a bet against in the top spot for me.

Stopchargingmaria in my opinion is the most overrated of the contenders. She spent 2014 ducking Untapable, and has not beaten any of the top contenders this year. Plus, she’s up against it in terms of running style. She’s no better than an underneath horse in the verticals for me.

Curalina finished behind Wedding Toast in the Beldame, and behind I’m a Chatterbox in the Alabama and the CCA Oaks, although she got moved up when I’m a Chatterbox was DQ’d in CCA Oaks.  She’s an improving three year old and they are always dangerous, but I’m thinking more a lesser award.

Todd Pletcher has three contenders in the race and I’m going with Got Lucky. His regular rider, Irad Ortiz, gets the mount and considering there are a slew of horses that seem to prefer pushing the pace, her closing style may give her an advantage. In the verticals I don’t believe there are a lot of horses with prospects to get the win, but there are a number of horses that could finish in the back holes. This is a race that might have a huge pay, especially with the morning line favorite, Wedding Toast, and the third choice, Stopchargingmaria, being suspect in my opinion. I’m a Chatterbox and Sheer Drama both have good running styles for this race. They don’t need the leed, and they have shown heart in the stretch. This is one tough race and I’d work very hard on a betting strategy.

Bonus: This four race sequence is a Pick 4. My A, B, C horses are

• Race 6    A=2, 13    B=12    C=8, 10
• Race 7    A=3    B=1, 9
• Race 8    A= 4, 8    B=1, 2, 3, 10
• Race 9    A= 12    B=1, 14    C=4, 7, 8