Belmont October 11

Race 1      3-6-5

Inca Saint may have the best chance in a suspect field. His negatives (zero wins at BEL and 1 for 7 at the distance) give me pause, but his best figures top this field. Will need odds to push the button at the window. Power Crazed was claimed by RuRod for $35K, jumped up to the ALW level where he ran respectably, and is dropped down to $25K today. Not far behind the 3. Successful Brothers has 11 seconds in 29 starts and only 2 wins. He’s in the top three as the likely vertical horse.

Race 2      3-2-5

Big Gillette came close first time out and RuRod usually improves them second time out. Destin is a first timer for Pletcher/Castellano. The workouts are typical Pletcher and being a Giant’s Causeway he should have no issue with the distance. Sea Wizard is listed at 4-1 ML and given the low profile connections you have to think he might be the real deal. Four bullets in his last five works.

Race 3      5-6-1

Indygita won the last two times she was in straight claimers, last time with the hot Jose Ortiz aboard. All systems go today. Kacy Lauren has two in a row, last in a state-bred allowance. This straight maiden is not much of a drop down in reality but she has won at the distance and at BEL. Arctic Ocean has had some weather bad luck, but has run well on the turf and at BEL. Would be no surprise and at 10-1 is the interesting horse.

Race 4      4-3-1

Sources and Methods was grabbed last out by 27% winner Brad Cox. The horse was coming hard at seven furlongs to just miss and perhaps the mile distance will be in his favor. Pin and Win ran better than looked last time out, but let’s face it – he’s 1 for 20.  A small chance to win, but more likely right behind the horse breaking next to him again. Bossmon has been knocking around at this level for a while but has competitive figures for this group. Lots of question marks in this race, and a head scratching finish is not out of the question.

Race 5      3-4-2

Chapman had been off since the end of the AQU meet, came out at SAR and held the lead to the stretch. He’s got a lot of back class, Chris Englehart in his corner, and the works should have him ready. The concern? He can’t blow his brains out running with Comandante. That one is now the controlling speed since Petrocelli is out of the race. He’s dropping in price and would be no surprise wiring the field. Bug Juice has had success at the distance and his figures are competitive with this group.

Race 6       5-1-8

This is one tough race to handicap. It was impossible to eliminate more than a couple of runners at a glance. I went with Compliance Officer on top. He has been with better in the recent past and although he was beaten last out by Sinatra that was at a sixteenth longer. I think he turns the tables at a mile. Media Kid had been off four months but turned in a good one in his last out. Improvement likely in the second start off the layoff. Sinatra is in top condition, has shown an ability to track and if he can avoid being part of a speed duel he has a lot of outs.

Race 7      2-5-3

This is another tough affair. Street Jersey and Star’s Ride look like the potential front speed here and both have chances if the track favors speed. Godrevy has been closing mildly but should have pace to run at today. Figures look like they should produce a top finish. I’m looking at some of the horses that haven’t had multiple starts. Candour stretches out another 16th and moving to the middle of the track should give him more room to run. Bookeelia Island broke slow last out, but Rosario was patient and when he pushed the go button the horse started flying. With a clean trip he’s got lots of outs.

Race 8      3-10-8

This is another very competitive race and it was a lot of effort to reduce the likely winners to three horses. Three for Me has been running lights out this year. He has won three times in 2015, once at the state-bred NW1X level. He’s moving up a level, but given the competitive races he should be in the mix at the end. Battle Red just broke his maiden and may have finally figured out how to win after finishing second six of eight times. Romeo Lima ships over from France and Clement is 27% with first timers in the states. Euro figures might be a little light but should be competitive today.

Race 9      2-1/1A-7

One Sided hasn’t run a bad race is his life and has managed consistent figures. Likes BEL and should do well at the distance. The entry is now just a single. Sailmate may have been the weaker part of the entry, but this is a common Jacobson move. Sailmate was competitive with much better last year and he looks like he might be rounding into shape. Likely to go much higher than the 4-1 ML. Force should appreciate the cutback in distance. He should be part of the early pace and should have the lead heading into the stretch.

Race 10   11-7-8

Whatawonderflworld did well breaking from the outside last time and has to circle again. Casse is 26% with second start maidens. Sherry’s Miracle ran well after a troubled start last out. A clean trip puts him right in the mix. Slapstick just missed first time out and has a nice series of breezes prepping for this. Another who could be the winner with a move forward.