Not a pretty betting day at first glance. Too many WYSIWYG races or races where seven horses look like they have a reasonable chance.

Race 1      3-6-7

Axtell ran in a stakes last out, finished close in both his maiden starts and drops to $75K. Looks tough on paper. Strong Dude is a 12-1 first timer for Contessa. He’s got some nice works and in a weak field is worth a look. Denim Blue drops out of MSW. Two starts at SAR weren’t horrible and he should improve this start.

Race 2      6-5-3

First Charmer was nipped by Lilikoi but I like him to turn the tables today. She was coming off a short rest and should show a little more. Stone Supplier is another one coming out of the same race. Showed some courage in the stretch and will probably be longer than the horses that beat her. Hush Now was third in that race after a bad stumble at the start. Given she had shown good pressing ability she has every right to improve enought to win today.

Race 3      3-6-4

Modus Operandi has a lot of starts but a lot of good numbers. If she decides to finish today she could be the one. Khaleesi Kat is the strongest closer and may already have two wins had she not had all sorts of trouble in her last. Equal chances to win with the top pick. Angel Choir is all the speed here and that is always going to be dangerous. Three pretty equal choices including on the tote board.

Race 4      8-3-1/1A

Spartan Emperor showed speed in both his starts and last time held it to deep stretch. Looking for the last step today. My Tommy Boy looked much better on the dirt than his last race on the turf. Should be in a good striking position. The Sunrise Stallions entry of Rich Dalone and How Frosty It Is have been knocking at the maiden level for a while. They each have run races that would be competitive with this group. Outside chances.

Race 5      1/1A-4-3

The Jacobson entry looks tough on both ends. Chasing Bubbles was just claimed for $40K and drops down to $12,500, a typical Jacobson move. Bass River Road is another $40K claimee. He is 6 for 16 overall with five of those at this distance. Gentrify got his last win at BEL in June, showed good speed last out at BEL and has competitive figures. A bit of an in and outer, but dangerous at the front. Mach Seven is close to 50% in the money, although only about 11% win. Has shown some affinity for BEL.

Race 6      3-2-5

Scorpion Aly  has had a good season for Patricia Farro who is 1 for 4 shipping into BEL. The mare has not been over the BEL surface, but she has shown ability on different lawns and looks to be placed at the right level.  Love That Kelly has been popular at the claim box and has two in the money finishes in three tries at BEL. Looks to be in good condition. Low key connections ensure a good price. Bargaining Table goes second off the claim for RuRod. She’s been consistent figurewise but has had trouble reacing the winner’s circle this year. In a good spot this time though.

Race 7      5-11-2-9

The last three races in the P4 sequence look highly competitive. I went with Dark Roast. He just won a statebred allowance and drops into the OC $40K ranks. He’s well suited to the seven surlong distance and has shown an affinity for BEL. Glowing Ember drops out of ALW NW1X into this statebred affair. He’s another with an affinity for BEL and should be best at this distance. Lord of Love seems more likely in the money than in the winner’s circle, but the figures are competitive. Could be part of the finish. Powerful Instinct may want more distance but if he is close at the top of the stretch he could be a factor.

Race 8      7-2-6-4

Ocean Knight was well regarded early in the year, even winning a graded event. The SAR race was a good combacker and at his best he should top the field. Second City is 4 for 6 at the distance and looks to be in good condition. May seem a cut below the top runners here, but given he is the closing speed and is at 20-1 ML I’ll give him a long look. Noble Moon was running graded races last year and lately has been showing some front speed. Chances look better today. Face of Winner generally goes to the front and stays there. Faltered late in the BEL mud last out but still showed courage. Like his chances today.

Race 9      6-4-2-12

Preying Mantis had been fading but gets first Lasix today. Should be the one to catch. Sheyn Vi Di Levone ran well last time and puts the blinkers on today. Taken by Surprise is the Pletcher/Velasquez runner and should improve this time out. Love You Babe was stuck on the far outside last time and finds herself there again. If she can find the trip she’s got a real chance.