Belmont September 11

Opening day at Bel and the track is muddy and off the turf.

Likely Winners – S’maverlous (R3), Reach for Yield (R5), All is Fun (R8)

Price Possibilities – Hangry (R2), Super Sharp (R7), Who is the Giant (R9)

Race 1      6-1-4

Scat Away has been close in her last three and I’m betting she picks up the pieces if the speed burns each other out. Lakeside Sunset has good early speed and has the best dirt figure. Is definitely at the right level but will have to contend with Uncle Southern up front. The latter has been running in state-bred stakes and should benefit from the drop to the OC 40K level.

Race 2      3-8-5

Hangry jumps up to MSW after being in a $40K at MTH and that explains the 15-1 ML The trip in that race was not clean but he did make a good close to only finish two lengths out. Looking for improvement today. New York Song had a difficult start first time out but should adapt well to the seven furlong distance. Violette is noted as a good trainer of two year olds. Fish Trappe Road goes in his fourth start looking for win number one. Has been disappointing and not sure he is better at the stretch out. Blinkers come off today.

Race 3      6-4-1

S’maverlous has a win and a second in three starts and is 8 for 8 in the money at the distance. Frazil has ten starts at BEL and five of them have been wins. Has generally run consistent figures at BEL and the distance. Gentrify looks like the speed of the speed and will have to be run down.

Race 4      1-2-8

On the Trail has been off since the end of the spring BEL meet and perhaps the rest will do her good. Has competitive figures and gets a switch to Jose Ortiz. Nothingbutthetruth had the lead to deep stretch in his first try on the turf and Albertrani horses usually take some time to fully develop. Classy Teacher goes for RuRod and gets Castellano. Should come out  running.

Race 5      5-3-1

Tiz Fantastic is a Tiz Wonderful filly that finished second to the well regarded Constellation. Should take to the distance and Tz Wonderful’s are usually superior in the mud. Shayna Lady had a little trouble at the break and had the lead by two at the eighth pole but retreated. Has to negotiate another two furlongs today but with Chad Brown doing the training you have to expect good things. Desert Turn missed the break last out and still showed interest. Should thrive with the stretch out.

Race 6      1-4-14

Ride a Cat has the best speed of the horses that are left and makes a drop in price for this spot. Kowboy Boots is better than 50% in the money and should do well in the mud. Ogermeister is another that has seconditis but is well bred for the mud and drops in price.

Race 7      7-1-5-(4)

Yes for Success did well at this level on the turf. Her best races have been on the dirt and she is one of the horses that should be coming in the stretch. Buckskin Doll has yet to finish out of the money and her maiden race yields the best figure. Super Sharp ships in from LRL off a sharp maiden win. Castellano picks ups the mount. Prize Taker has 14 seconds and thirds in 26 starts, and has a high probability of being part of the verticals.

Race 8      6-4-11

All in Fun raced well in the Grade 2 Lake George and the Riskaverse and fits well in this field. Miss Ella raced well in her first turf sprint upstate and figures to improve. Spark has a huge wet track rating and should be the one to catch.

Race 9      4-6-14

El Genio is the speed and has a second on the wet dirt. Who Is the Giant had a lot more success when dropped to this level last out and looking for improvement.Wrought dops in as one of the MTO’s. He had a tough trip last time and should be much more effective from the outside post.