Today’s card is as good as any card you’ll see this year. Last year’s top filly, Untapable, is running. The BC Classic winner Bayern is going. And of course 2015’s leading candidate for three year old of the year, American Pharaoh is running. Many of the races are super-competitive, and picking winners will be no easy task, but here goes.
Race 1 5-3-1
Donworth is going for the fourth time and with each successive race he has shown improvement. First time at BEL but he’s shown adaptability on different surfaces. He’s already graded stakes placed and his best figure tops this field. Japan just broke his maiden for Mott in his third start. Given he’s a trainer not noted for getting the best out of horse first time, now that Japan has shown some ability we can expect him to keep it up. Stanford ran a strong second to International Star in the Louisiana Derby and has been given some time to continue his development. He would be no surprise in this race.
Race 2 4-2-7
Tiz Shea D ran smartly in the Perer Pan after showing he wasn’t quite ready in the spring. He’s returned to the races in great shape and should thrive with the slight cutback in distance. Wisecracker broke his maiden impressively and he has the figures to compete in this NW1X. Tommy Macho broke his maiden at second asking and gets a rider upgrade to Castellano. I like the potential for improvement.
Race 3 3-4-1
Competitive Edge will be a strong favorite in this Grade 2 event. He was a winner at seven furlongs first time out this year and followed that with a convincing victory in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day. He’s undefeated, loves the distance and has a versatile running style. Two Weeks Off was outkicked in the Peter Pan but is two for two at the seven furlong distance. Ready for Rye won the Grade 2 Swale impressively but faltered in the Bay Shore. He’s got a win over the BEL dirt and has good tactical speed. Dangerous here.
Race 4 4-1-11-10
The Grade 3 Jaipur at six furlongs on the turf is full of quality runners. Ageless will be the longshot play here, being a mare going against the boys. Last time she ran in mixed company she only missed 3/4 of a length in the BC Turf Sprint. She’s almost a 50% winner overall, better than 50% on the turf, and one for one at the distance. Her figures are a match for any horse in here, and she’s graded stakes placed. Power Alert just won the G3 Turf Sprint at CD and stretches out another furlong today. He’s got great speed and has become a different horse with the addition of Lasix. Regular jock Leparoux decided to ride the 4, but the switch to Johnny V is positive. Spring to the Sky is always competitive at the distance and on the BEL turf. Obviously needed his last and should improve today. Channel Marker at 20-1 ML is interesting for the back holes.
Race 5 4-2-5
The G1 Ogden Phipps has a small but very elite field. Last year’s dominant three year old filly, Untapable will achieve odds on favoritism and on her best day she is better than any other horse in the race. But, her two races in Arkansas showed vulnerability and there are a couple in here that seem to be on the improve. She’s probably not a bet at anything approaching here ML odds, but if she was ever vulnerable, today might be the day. Wedding Toast came out in 2015 as a horse that has kicked some of the problems that held her back in 2014. Her last two figures say this race is not a foregone conclusion for the favorite. Princess Violet was a later blooming three year old who has become competitive at graded levels and she shows a definite taste for BEL. The upset possibility.
Race 6 8-5-10-2
The Brooklyn has always been one of my favorite races ever since I watched the mighty Forego make one of his patented late moves to win the race. This edition features a couple of last year’s talented three year olds in V E Day and Wicked Strong, as well as a couple of quality older stakes horses. V E Day gets the nod today. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has had great success with the turf to dirt move, especially with this horse. Yes, there is a the question of how well he’ll like the mile and a half, and whether he’ll get the right pace to run at, but he is a winner at BEL and getting ready to get his four year old season on the winning track. His stablemate Effinex should have no issue with the distance and rides a two race winning streak coming into this one. He’s a horse that looks like he’s developed over the winter and should be a major contender. Sky Kingdom comes from the West Coast off a win at this distance at SA. That last race was a monster and if he runs that race here he’s going to be tough to keep out. Red Rifle is the sneaky horse here. He hasn’t gone the distance on the dirt, but he has successfully on the turf. He may be the one hurt most by any sort of pace battle, but he’s a legitimate contender in here.
Race 7 9-7-8-2
Promise Me Silver comes into the race 8 for 8, but also hasn’t raced at the mile. She seems to be ratable and hard to run down once she gets the lead. Mike Smith takes the mount today. Condo Commando may be overrated in this field. She’ll certainly work to get to the front, but holding on against this group may be a task. Still, she’s a quality horse and the distance cutback shouldn’t hurt. Shook Up ran well in the Kentucky Oaks and the FG Oaks before that. She’s a horse that could also benefit from the distance cutback. Wonder Gal is the longshot possibility. She raced very well in the BC Juvenile fillies and didn’t embarrass herself first out at AQU. She looks like one of the ones eligible for improvement.
Race 8 6-3-4-2
Filimbi is listed at 6-1 ML in this year’s Just A Game, and for my money she’s overlayed. She’s 5 for 8 in turf miles and one of one at BEL. She’s going to be much better suited at the mile and her mile figures are outstanding. At the price, she’s worth a look. Discreet Marq looked good in her season debut in the Beaugay and is another well suited to the mile. She has a liking for the BEL surface and may be the one to catch in the stretch. Coffee Clique is the defending champ and comes in third off the layoff. She’s become a mile specialist and has the figures to be a major factor. Sandiva is 12-1 ML and is definitely better than that. She’s likely to be one of the ones closing and while she hasn’t won at the distance she may be part of the verticals.
Race 9 5-1-4-9
The Metropolitan is always a quality race and this year is no different. The X factor horse is Tamarkuz. He has blossomed on the dirt and his top figures are as good as any horse in the field. Of course when you are racing against the likes of Tonalist, Wicked Strong and Bayern and you’re generally unknown 10-1 is about as good as you could expect. He has been here a while and should be acclimated. He gets first Lasix and McLaughlin is 4 of 5 with shippers to North America. Private Zone is a horse you have to love. He goes to the front and often refuses to be caught. He’s well suited for the mile and it’s hard to criticize a horse that tries as hard as he does. Tonalist came out in 2015 and won the Westchester mile. This is a quality thoroughbred and if he stays healthy he should have a lot to say about horse of the year. Honor Code is the biggest closer in the race and if the speed does falter he could be the one picking up the pieces. That leaves out last year’s BC Classic winner Bayern, and that’s not to say he’s out of luck, but frankly he doesn’t seem to be in the shape of the top picks.
Race 10 2-3-5
Today’s co-feature is the 10 furlong Manhattan. Twilight Eclipse may appear to have trouble winning but a lot of that had to do with a horse named Main Sequence. That horse is not in this race and I think that will make all the difference. His figures are consistent and high quality and while he faces a quality field, this may just be his year. Finnegans Wake is one of those quality contenders and already has three graded wins this season including the Turf Classic at CD. He’s another with consistent, high level figures and may have the best closing kick in the field. Big Blue Kitten hasn’t slowed down much as a 7 year old. He likes the BEL turf and at the top of his game he’s right there.
Race 11 6-8-1-5
This is the race everyone has been waiting for, and I’ll make it as easy as possible. American Pharaoh is either a freak destined to outrun his breeding or a horse whose breeding will catch up with him at the mile and a half. AP will go to the front and if he is the super horse his press extolls he won’t look back, and make no mistake that is a real possibility. So my advice is play the race one way or the other (or both). I’m leaning toward playing the “California Chrome/Big Brown/etc scenario” and playing others in the top three. If you remember all the way back to the Derby I was a big fan of Frosted and today is redemption baby. He had one of the horror trips in the Derby and ran farther than anyone else and still finished fourth. He has a stamina point in his dosage and should have no problem at the mile and a half. Materiality is another that had no outs in the Derby but was highly regarded coming in. He’s another that still has to be given a chance to run his best race. Based on his running style he may decide to go with AP early and we’ll find out if he has the stuff to outfinish him. Mubtaahij is really much better than he looked in the Derby and is another with favorable mile and a half breeding. He will be underbet and I expect him to show far better than he did in the Derby. And if any horse other than one of these four wins I’m heading back to handicapping school.
Race 12 11-12-5
If you still have any energy left, Umgiyo looks like the solid choice here. He has consistent, quality figures and there is no shame in getting beat in the Turf Classic by Finnegan’s Wake. Market Outlook is on the improve for top turf trainer Chad Brown. Depeche Chat is about a 30% winner and goes for high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Figures say competitive.
Race 13 10-5-1-6
The finale is a mess of a race. I went with the obvious choice, Social Inclusion. He puts the blinkers on for his second start in 2015. First time out he ran well at a mile at GP and the cutback in distance should be to his favor. He’s got plenty of tactical speed. Spa City Fever just keeps on going and looks to make it two in a row. Green Gratto is the likely front runner although he might be a bit up against it at 7 furlongs. Easy to Say comes off a big win at MTH and with only four starts is eligible to improve.