Race 1 4-3-6
Karenina Gal goes first time for Violette who is an amazing 42% with first timers. Yeah, the horse was a cheap purchase and the workouts are not eye catching, but they are steady. Worth the look at 10-1. Shoot the Moon didn’t run well in his debut on the BEL mud, but switches to Nevin who is 29% first time with a horse. Hot House Rose had trouble in her first start and didn’t take to the turf in her second, but looks fast enough to compete with these.
Race 2 9-6-11
15-1 ML Thunders Fury is my longshot play here. He has decent turf numbers and drops into MCL. Maybe a stretch, but I’ll give him consideration. Cuppa Joe has been consistent but is still looking to break through. The numbers say competitive. Balfe’s Corner is another dropping into MCL. He’s had some trip excuses in his first three on the turf and the switch to Saez may be what he needs to get over the top.
Race 3 4-2-3
Two Weeks off is looking to continue through his conditions for Pletcher. Conquest Curlinate showed immense talent with his off the pace run last out. Madefromlucky is coming off the ARK prep races into a softer group.
Race 4 1A-5-2
The McLaughlin coupling of Via Strata and Wedding Toast looks very tough here, with the 1A looking to be the better of the two. She’s coming off a couple fof graded runs and has the best last out number. Princess Violet has been with the best of her generation, and beat the 1A last time. Talented runner with every right to win this one. Shayjolie is a hard trying filly with a lot of success at BEL. Dangerous off her best.
Race 5 5-6-9-8
Colonel Juanita has been a popular claim for the last few months and has been consistent. Trail Walker drops her price in half in search of a win. Competitive figures. Wise Awake had an amazing 2014 as a nine year old, but hasn’t quite picked up in 2015. Still can throw in a good one. Darling Bridezilla is far and away the speed and needs to be given a look.
Race 6 4-9-3
Chunnel ran good first time off the layoff and should improve here. Madam I’m Adam comes off a long layoff for Linda Rice and if he is in condition figures to be a factor. Pep the Champ is one for one on the BEL turf and is another that is a factor off his best.
Race 7 7-2-6
Discreet Marq comes from CA and off a good run in the Matriarch. She’s 4 of 7 on the BEL turf and he numbers dominate. Tough call between the 1 and 2 here for me, but I decided to go with the Radiator. She looked very good in winning her stateside debut and Mott is 35% second off the move from Europe to the U.S. Testa Rossi won the Miss Grillo as a 2 YO at BEL and has been sticking at the graded levels for Chad Brown. Off her best she’s dangerous.
Race 8 1-5-3
Global Positioning looks like the 6 1/2F distance is perfect. Has the best last race figure. Dean Verdile looked good breaking his maiden at AQU and has come back with a sharp work. Rectify broke his maiden second time out for Mott. It’s not unusual to see Mott horses take time to break their maiden but once they do they can run through their conditions.
Race 9 1-6-4
The Man O War has a small but elite field. The choice is Imagining. He loves the BEL turf and is great at the distance. Age may be catching up with him, but he’s still dangerous. Hardest Core is making his first start since finishing in the middle of the pack in the BC Turf. Another well adapted to BEL. Twilight Eclipse has been in with the best turfers in America and doesn’t have Main Sequence to beat today. The only knock is that he hasn’t had great success on the BEL turf.
Race 10 3-5-12-9
Lone Trader is back on the turf where he ran his best races. Infinite Midnight goes first time for the always dangerous Chad Brown. That is reason enough to give him a look. Rock Eagle flew home in his first out and will probably be in that position again from the 12 hole. Britannia’s Moat could be the speed here and almost held to the wire last out. Another who might make a vertical bet.