Usually the day after the Kentucky Derby is an off day for me. The incredible energy expended in the run up to the race leaves most of us feeling deflated. It was especially hard for those of us who were rooting against the eventual winner. The great thing about horseracing is that your horse can lose and you can still make a case for him winning. Frosted, my bet, was far back early and went wide trying to get back into the race, eventually finishing fourth. Whatever you want to say about the race the top three ran, there was no way anyone was going to close by horses of that class on a fair (not slow, not fast) pace. Joel Rosario left himself a lot to do to win that race, and ultimately it was too much. Was Frosted the best horse? That’s a topic for hypothetical argument because yesterday the only winning horse was American Pharaoh.
On the other hand, I feel great about the way I bet this race. I used my general 50-25-25 approach and made the following bets:
- $200 win Frosted
- $50 ex Frosted/Am Pharaoh
- $20 ex Frosted/ Dortmund
- $20 ex Am Pharaoh/Frosted
- $10 ex Dortmund/Frosted
- $4 tri Frosted/Am Pharaoh, Dortmund, Carpe Diem/ AP, Dor, CD, Firing Line
- $2 tri AP, Dor, CD/Frosted/AP, Dor, CD, Firing Line
- $1 tri Frosted/AP, Dor, CD/ 8 horses
Total invested was $375. Had Frosted won the race with Am Pharaoh second and Firing Line third, I estimated my collection would have been $6,650. Not a bad day’s work. I believe I bet the race correctly for value, although if you wanted to argue the $72 exacta with Am Pharaoh and Firing Line at $72 was value I’d agree. But the tri was not a great bet and I will argue with you all day that Am Pharaoh to win was not a value bet. In any case, I focused my money on my opinion, and unless I was willing to spend a lot of money boxing around with the top five, I needed Frosted first or second. I’d argue it’s worth $375 to potentially win 17-1 most days.
So on to BEL. As I said, this is normally a day off, but for those who need some help, my picks are below.
Race 1 6-3-1
Race 2 2-1-4
Race 3 1-2-5
Race 4 7-2-4
Race 5 7-1A-4-6
Race 6 4-1-7
Race 7 2-6-5
Race 8 6-4-2
Race 9 5-3-1-10