UPDATE: Send the Limo did establish an easy lead on fractions of :49.83 and 1:13.96. Despite having a three length lead at the eighth pole, she was caught near the wire by Coriander and wound up beaten a neck. Lemon and Honey was third. Coriander went off at 6-5, Send the Limo went off at 2-1, and Lemon and Honey went off at almost 7-2, so on my line there was no win bet. The exacta paid $11.60, so it was a good bet at track odds but no bet on my line.The trifecta was $22.20 and given there were only three horses to play, could have represented an investment.
The 2nd is a $25,000 claiming race for NW2 lifetime.
The scratch of #7 Morethanawarning will substantially alter the betting in the race given he was the morning line favorite. Here is my odds line for the six remaining runners.
Number My Odds Bet Odds
- 15-1 X
- 12-1 X
- 3-1 9-2
- 12-1 X
- 3-1 9-2
- 8-5 5-2
For the most part I am discounting the win chances of 1, 2, and 4. 1 is a 26 start horse with one win, definitely not a win type. 2 has 18 starts with one win, although it did come on the turf. However, she is coming off state-bred claimers at a slightly lower price and is trained by the 1 for 56 Joseph Parker. 4 hasn’t shown much since her maiden win at Calder in January. She is also conditioned by a low percentage trainer.
That leaves only three contenders. #3 Coriander was more of a front running type in 2013. Lately she has not shown an ability to get out of the gate, and her latest workout doesn’t seem to indicate they are trying to put speed back into her. John Hertler claimed the horse two races back, and jumped her up twice into state-bred allowances. This condition is really not that much lower. She had pace figures last year that would have topped this field, and if Hertler has her wound up, she could light the board.
#5 Lemon and Honey was claimed last out by Gary Contessa, who lately wins with only 9% of his first claims. Lemon and Honey is another horse that looked far more promising at the end of 2013. She was showing good speed in most of her races and then all of a sudden decided to take up at the back of fields. She went favorite in her last race and improved position mildly to finish second. If Contessa asks jockey Saez to prompt the pace, she may have enough stretch kick to get the win.
#6 Send the Limo looks to be the clear speed of the race. She may get slightly overlooked because her last race was a maiden claimer, but she likely fits at his class. She wired a nine horse field at Monmouth in her last, and there doesn’t seem to be any reason she can’t look to do it again. Rudy Rodriguez and Jose Ortiz at hitting at a 13% rate, and unless one of the other runners decides to keep the 6 from loafing along on a clear lead up front, she will have every chance to win. She has only four lifetime starts, so she is not yet in the professional NW2 ranks.
$2 Exacta Fair Pay
3-5 $35 3-6 $23
5-3 $35 5-6 $23
6-3 $19 6-5 $19