Sometimes I feel like the Grinch watching all the Who’s down in Whoville incessantly happy and dancing when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Oh, the Derby is a good thing on balance for horseracing. People who could care less about horseracing the other 364 days of the year will faithfully spend time watching, and maybe even betting, the so-called “most exciting two minutes in sports.” But it also the most overrated two minutes in racing. It’s a race for three year olds, and not necessarily even the best of the three year old crop. Trust me – if you think that is heresy, it is only because you have been programmed from birth by endless newspaper articles and over the top TV ads to see the Derby as America’s premier racing experience. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Think about the 2014 Derby. The only horse of the top ten Derby finishers that was in the BC Classic at the end of the season was California Chrome. Bayern, Toast of New York and Shared Belief were non factors in May, but they have all finished ahead of Chrome since the Derby. What does that tell you?
I’ve often used the analogy of high school. Three year old race horses in May are the equivalent of high school juniors and seniors. Remember how there was one guy who was already having to shave every day? A girl that could have passed for twentysomething? Same with thoroughbreds. Some of them are physically ahead of the others, but just like with high school eventually everybody catches up. That’s why they run the Breeders Cup in November.
So what is the relevance of all this? The hype associated with the Derby causes it to be weighted too heavily when assessing which horse should be the champion. But as I said above, on balance the Derby is a good thing for racing.
This week the Derby picture started to come into better focus. Here is my take at this point in no particular order.
El Kabeir ran a strong race in the Gotham. In that race he switched styles, changing from a front runner to a closer. There are two negatives with El Kabeir – the Gotham field was not particularly strong and there is still the spectre of Far From Over‘s convincing victory in the Withers. El Kabeir comes close to the breeding I like to see in the Derby, with dosage points in the first four categories, well distributed, but perhaps a little too biased toward speed. He remains of interest, but I’ll withhold a final opinion until his last prep.
Dortmund received fawning praise for his San Felipe victory. I have a feeling he is this year’s California Chrome – the horse people become emotionally involved with. He tops most of the current Derby lists and may be the most impressive physical specimen of the contenders. He is the horse with the look of the man among boys. His breeding is good – he’s by a Derby winner – and his overall profile is close to what we would look for in Derby winners. But I’m not totally sold on the horse yet. I thought the San Felipe was a good race, but the field was not powerful. I’m not sold on the front running types in the Derby – notice how El Kabeir decided to change styles in the Gotham – mainly because some no chance trainers look forward to having their horse leading the Derby at some point and could compromise other speed horses. I’d like to see Dortmund win his next prep from off the pace. I also thought Dortmund drifted a bit, which may have been due to the lack of competition as much as anything. He’s another that I’ll have a better handle on after the SA Derby.
Carpe Diem ran well in the Tampa Derby, especially considering it was his first race of the year. This year’s edition of the Tampa race probably had the best field it has seen. If I was forced to pick the leading contender, this would be the horse. He has plenty of stamina on both sides of his pedigree, and on dosage has most of his points in the classic category. I like the two prep road – he should come to the Derby loaded. I have high expectations for this horse, but of course, like the others, I’m waiting to see the final prep before getting any more excited.
Upstart won the Fountain of Youth but was disqualified, losing the Oscar for “best performance by a jockey who wasn’t going to win anyway” to Itsaknockout. His pedigree is shaded toward shorter distance, although he wouldn’t be a total surprise in the Derby. Trainer Violette seems to not have a definitive plan for Upstart and that’s a bit bothersome. At this point, he’s not on my list of serious contenders, but that could change after the final preps.
The aforementioned Itsaknockout did not look all that impressive finishing second in the Fountain of Youth. Based on his pedigree, I like him a lot more as a Belmont contender than a Derby contender. He’s another that could move up based on his final prep.
Texas Red has been sidelined with a foot abcess. As a rule of thumb, horses that miss training at this time of the year are usually crossouts in the Derby. I’m passing on the horse at this point.
Far From Over won against style in the Withers. He stumbled at the break, losing six lengths or so, fell well back of front runners El Kabeir and Classy Class, and closed furiously to win going away. According to Mike Watchmaker of the DRF, he was miles the best in that race. I’m not quite as sold. He rode the golden rail while El Kabeir was wide on both turns, and I thought El Kabeir was not all out in the stretch. Regardless of the Withers, the horse is beautifully bred for a triple crown run. He’s already shown both front running and closing ability and should have no problem with the mile and a quarter distance. At this point he’s the dark horse to watch.
American Pharoah is making his debut in the Rebel this weekend after missing the BC Juvenile due to injury. I have two issues. I’m not thrilled about the late debut, although it’s not wise to spend a lot of time second guessing Baffert. Mostly, he doesn’t have the kind of breeding I’m looking for in the Derby. He seems more speed oriented, and while he’s marginal for me at a mile and a quarter, we’ll see how he runs in his preps.
Far Right has gotten mention on Derby lists off his closing victory in the Southwest Stakes and his impressive run in the Smarty Jones. He’s another one I’d prefer in the Belmont – he seems bred more for the distance – but with a perfect trip a Derby win is not out of the question. . His Southwest victory was not dominating – he got a perfect ride from Mike Smith – although his other victory against winners in the Smarty Jones showed a stout ability to close. He’s another one I’m holding off on evaluating until after the Arkansas Derby.