Aqueduct February 26

Holy Trifecta, Batman. Look who’s back handicapping. I’m sure to be a bit rusty, but I’m sure to pull a couple of rabbits out of my hat. I’m not promising I’m back full time – I still have to finish basketball – but I’ll be posting more and more often until I’m back full time.

Race 1      1-6-3

Let’s start the day with a long shot. Ecoach is listed at 20-1 on the ML. She’s making her second start since October and has an interesting mix of plusses and minuses. Her win clip is 37%, but her performances on the inner have been less than inspiring. She was probably in better races at FL, but she has definitely tailed off since she turned 6. I think the last race was a little better than looked, and despite being off four months her effort was encouraging. She was in the same race as horses that will be far lower odds and I think the difference is enough to make a small investment in her favor. Discreet Force ran to the front last out and did well to hold on to second. Same race may give her the front spot today. Island Candy was the winner of that race and has shown both an ability to lead and to track. Given 6 of the 8 starters are coming out of the same last race, a similar result is not unlikely.

Race 2      2-8-5

The second has a few money burners and disappointments.  Aleander has the figures but is making his twelfth attempt to break his maiden. He’s five and not a winner and at 7-2 doesn’t make for an inspiring bet. Retire Fifty Five is also heading in that direction, as well as having a case of seconditis. Those two can certainly be part of the tri or super, but I’m going to leave them out of the win slot. I going with Hollywood Idol. He’s only shown a modest amount of talent in his first two, and it appears that he’s had some physical issues to overcome. He started out in the Pletcher barn and shifted over to Jimmy Jerkens for his only start of 2014. He puts on blinkers for today’s start and that should help him focus. He been bet a little in both of his starts, and it’s a good sign he has been working regularly for this race. He’s a horse that was thought to have a lot of talent, he’s well bred for the distance, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he threw in a good one today. Chase the Love got a good figure off his last race, but it has to be a concern that trainer is pretty pathetic. His first two starts were on wet tracks, and the last wasn’t too bad at all. He gets first Lasix today, and that may give him a lift. Zingarelli is a Kiaran McLaughlin first timer who is nicely bred and has a good workout pattern, although nothing beyond a half mile. McLaughlin is fair with first timers. A chance but I don’t think 5-2 is appealing.

Race 3      3-8-9

Brad’s Ruby has four starts on the inner with a second and a third. She’s been with a lot better in the not too distant past – this is as low as she’s been. I like her last and she has a decent maintenance work. She should be the one to catch. Appearance had a nice start at this price a month ago and was able to get a maintenace work in five days ago. She’s been fairly consistent with her figures, but like most in here doesn’t standout. Charming Eyes is listed as the favorite off a win and a second in her last two on the inner. She looks as good as anything, but doesn’t inspire 2-1 odds.

Race 4      8-5-4

War Hero makes his first start for Eddie Kenneally and comes back at the same price. He’s got a series of races faster than anything else in here and looks solid as the favorite. Hold Everything makes his second start for DJ after winning for slightly less last out. No reason he couldn’t repeat. Drum Roll is making his first start for Jeremiah Englehart after a year on the shelf. Englehart is a little better than average with layoff horses and while the workouts haven’t been eye-popping they have been steady.

Race 5      7-3-6

Evrybdymstgetstonz is dropping into a state-bred OC $75K after leading half the race and finishing third in the Grade 2 Matron last October. If she hits her previous figure today she sticks out in this field. Graeme Crackers had trouble in the Franklin Square but showed some heart by closing. She certainly figures better than the other three that came ou of the same race. Bourbonstateofmind has a nice turn of early foot and is probably better at the sprint distance.

Race 6      11-8-3

With the scratches of 3 and 11, I’m  going to add the 9 Barrel of Dreams into the mix. She’s dropping out of MSW and cuts back in distance to a sprint. She showed some early foot last out and held a little longer before doing her usual fade. I’m hoping that race gave her a little more bottom and she shows more stretch courage today.

This race is pretty wide open. Miss Bellamy looks like the speed of the speed and has the best last out number. Probably won’t be the favorite and may actually be value. In this race I’m looking for something with value. Secret Militaire is a bit chancey but the 12-1 ML makes her a bit more intriguing. She’s jumping up from $20K to $40K but she has a good front-running rider in Chuck Lopez. She just has that look of a horse starting to get better. Not About the Nail drops out of straight maidens and may turn out to be the best horse in the field. Should be in a good spot to fire on the front runners.

Race 7      8-4-3

Bullheaded Boy had been running in state-bred stakes before Pletcher dropped him into an OC $75K. Hard to tell what his best distance is, but it looks like at best he’ll have to press and make a move in the stretch. Gets extra consideration for having Irad up. Copernicus easily beat a MCL $40K field and was grabbed by RuRod. He fits here today. Deficit Hawk strongly won his maiden but disappointed at the odds on fav in the Rego Park. Violette has him working well and this field may be a lot more to his ability.

Race 8      2-10-4

Don’t Blame Her puts the blinkers on and is dropping way down after making her first two starts in MSW races. Should have high early and has been getting better late in races. Wonderish is another dropping out of MSW, although they were at FL. May be looking for a drier track. Moonlight Fantasy is a five start maiden who is going first out for Jacobson. She was hard to load last out and if she calms a bit today and expends he energy in the race she’s a contender.