With NYRA having trouble with the weather, not to mention the auxiliary gate getting stuck in the snow, I figure time to take a shot with GP. We’ll see how well my handicapping holds up down south in Florida.
Race 1 4-2-8
Dee’s Causeway has had three consecutive races with trouble at the start, which is cause for some concern. Her last two workouts before her November race debut were from the gate, suggesting an issue. In her last race, her turf debut, she was off a step slow but rushed into the race and ran evenly, beaten less than three lengths. That switch to the turf was a tonic for the horse, and a little improvement puts her right there. The blinkers go on today, and perhaps that will help with focus. The trainer jockey combo is nothing to get excited about, being in the 10% range, but this is about as easy a field as she is likely to get. She’s at the right claiming price. Tumminia will garner favoritism by virtue of her front running ability and best last race number. No reason she can’t win today, but at the price she won’t be much value. Sexual Appeal (wonder how that one got by the Jockey Club) has been off since August. She puts the blinkers on, gets Lasix for the first time, changes trainers, and has a decent set of works for the return. 20-1 ML horse is worth a look.
Race 2 7-3-8
Jay Eye See has had a little bit of trouble being a groom instead of a groomsman, but he is rarely not in the race. He has an in-between look, not a route horse, but not necessarily a sprinter, so the seven furlong distance seems like it might be right for him. He was claimed last out by his previous trainer, usually a good sign. I wouldn’t bet him with gusto, but I like his figures and I like the pace he was on last out. Indian Brut broke his maiden on the slop at AQU in impressive fashion and came back at GP at today’s distance to finish second in a decent allowance race. He broke slow in that affair but managed to rush up near the front and finished well. He should be the favorite and won’t be good odds, but he will be solid in the horizontals and verticals. Pomeroy’s Package wired a cheaper OC field last out in an impressive time. He should be with the front runners and may hang on for the win.
Race 3 7-8-5
It’s Not Me has won four of his eight starts and looks like the speed of the speed. He only has one dismal start on the turf, but his last on the synthetic was powerful and provides reason for optimism. Souper Colossal actually had the lead at one point in the BC Juvenile but was swallowed up by most of the field. That was his only loss in four lifetime starts. He looks like more of a sprinter and has a win at five furlongs. Pow Wow Pal broke his maiden at five furlongs in an off the turf affair and did it in impressive wire to wire fashion. Wesley Ward has been having a good meet and should have him wound up and ready to roll.
Race 4 10-1-6
Performance Bonus had a troubled race first out but still finished second behind Classy Class. He should like the stretch out to a mile and Chad Brown is having his usual successful meet. The only thing Brown is better at than first time starters is second time starters. Vandalize goes first out for Pletcher, who is dynamite with young maidens. I like the speedier works early in the sequence and the mix of four and five furlong drills after that. He should take to the mile and while Castellano and Johnny V go elsewhere, Zayas is a competent sub. He gets the rail so he’ll have to fly early. Key to the Bridge is 20-1 on the ML but Brian Lynch is 25% first out. I like that quick three furlong early in the workout sequence and I like the breeding for the mile trip.
Race 5 5-3-7
El Botas was a first timer at the turf sprint last out and looked good drawing out after getting pressed early. Despite his lack of experience at this level, he is at the top of his game and could be the speed of the speed, although he should get a tussle from Bold Thunder up front. Green Mask finished second to Bold Thunder in the Turf Dash at Tampa in his first try at five furlongs. In that race he broke tenth of 12 and had the unfavorable outside tracking spot. If he gets a better spot out of the gate today he is the danger. The change from Clement to Wesley Ward shouldn’t hurt at all. Prudhoe Bay has a second at this distance in two starts but is coming out of two G3 races, winning the Jersey Shore in August. He’s been off since September but looks like he’s been working reasonably well for his return. He should be one of the ones trying to close for the win.
Race 6 4-10-8
Flashy Jewel is 12-1 on the ML. He vied with 1/2 favorite Royal Sun for the lead in his last, and was checked in the stretch when the eventual winner Tradesman came over. Tradesman was ultimately disqualified and placed behind Flashy Jewel. Flashy Jewel wasn’t going to beat either of the top two, but he ran well considering he was being intimidated between horses in the stretch and lost all chance after checking. I think this race is a better spot – there’s no Royal Son or Tradesman here. Like the experience, speed and works since last. Danzig Moon is coming off a three and a half month break for Mark Casse. His last was interesting – he totally missed the break, held back and closed to only miss by a length and half. A clean break would bode well for him. The Son Wind hasn’t show a lot of heart in the stretch but they have been solid efforts. Some chance today.
Race 7 5-3-13
Chiltern Street goes first time for Wesley Ward. He’s had a good series of turf works and Ward has looked strong with his first time starters. He’s well bred for the turf and the distance. Muhaawer has been sharp in the morning and Kieran McLaughlin has had a good GP meet. He’s moderately bred for the turf but well bred for the distance. Irish Cat is another with the workouts and the breeding to be a factor. Chad Brown and Rosario make the horse look better than the 10-1 ML.
Race 8 12-6-10
Tapicat had an abbreviated season last year, and while Mott isn’t high percentage off a long layoff, she has won coming off the rest previously. She’s certainly classy enough for this field and if she is back in top shape she’s the one to beat. Triple Charm won 2 of 4 last year but did not win her first in 2014 off the year and a half layoff. I think that was excusable, but clearly the horse has some physical delicacy. Still, I like Clement and the workouts and she’s another who is dangerous off her best. Patsy’s Holiday is the Pletcher entrant and is 2 for 4 at GP and 1 of 2 at the distance.
Race 9 7-4-11
I could have picked six horses in this race and not felt confident of the winner. Of the horses that have started, Sir Alfred looks best. He has one start on the slop for Pletcher and looked good vying for the lead between horses. The experience should serve him well in today’s contest. Centauro Star cuts back half a furlong today. Last race he broke slowly, didn’t rush, closed steadily and finished a decent second. Since then he was gelded and shows three nice workouts, the last a bullet blowout. Like his chances today. Rare Art is a Chad Brown first timer spectacularly bred for the sprint. I like his workout pattern, especially the last four furlong breeze.
Race 10 4-8-3
Starstruck makes her 2015 debut after a disappointing 2014. She switches from the Larry Jones barn to Nick Zito. She’s likely the best horse in the race on her best day, although you can never be sure which Starstruck is showing up. Sandiva ran a great race in the Tropical Park Oaks, breaking from the 13 post and hanging on gamely for the win. She was a Group 3 winner in Europe and I don’t think we’ve yet seen her best in America. Scampering already has a start at GP in 2015. She was anxious loading in that race, probably left all her reserves at the starting gate. Can’t underrate the prowess of McGaughey in Graded Stakes, and although this horse has struggled a bit at the level, she should be keyed for her best.
Race 11 3-10-5
Confrontation has five wins from 10 career starts and just missed four weeks ago in the Hal’s Hope to the talented Lea, one of today’s Donn starters. Looks like the value at 5-1 ML. Valid pressed the pace in the Hal’s Hope and may be the frontrunner today. He doesn’t give up easily and will be the one to pass late. Mosler is a newly turned four year old who seems to be getting better. His first turf race showed promise and he gets first Lasix today.
Race 12 3-4-1
Imagining tends to run toward the front in turf marathons, but is likely to be more of a closer at today’s distance. He lost his last to horse of the year contender Main Sequence in the BC Turf and he did just miss to another starter in this race, Lochte, in last year’s edition of GP Turf Handicap. He’s a proven commodity off the bench and should be coming hard at the leaders in the stretch. Grand Tito just missed to Mshawish in the Fort Lauderdale four weeks ago. The extra sixteenth should be in his favor and I look for him to turn the tables today. Mshawish is riding a two race winning streak and has won three of his last four. He’s got talent, but may have a tough time resisting some of the better closers.
Race 13 2-4-1
The Donn came up as a very competitive race. The Todd Pletcher trained Commissioner faces his first test as a four year old. He ran a spectacular race in the Belmont, losing by only a head to the talented Tonalist. He laid off until January where he ran a nice third in an OC $62. It seems likely Pletcher was only trying to give the horse a conditioner in prep for this race, and given the two nice four furlong works since that race he should be on top of his game for the Donn. Castellano bails in favor of the other Pletcher horse, Constitution, and that is of mild concern, but nothing wrong with having Johnny V as your backup. Lea was in great form at GP in 2014 and picked up right where he left off in the Hal’s Hope a few weeks ago. This horse has nothing but heart and anything less than a competitive run would be a surprise. If he has a down side it is that he would probably prefer a distance less than a mile and an eighth, but he obviously can negotiate since he is the defending champ in the Donn. Constitution was the Florida Derby winner at GP but injury kept him off the Derby trail. He came back in an OC $80K in October, a typical Pletcher prepatory move. In that race he stumbled early on and wanted to go-go-go to the front but was wrangled by Castellano. He faded slightly at the end, seemingly a common outcome for horses that use a lot of energy fighting to use their speed. His race in the Clark was almost a winning one, losing only to the very talented Hoppertunity and another Donn starter Protonico. If he’s learned to relax on the front end he represents a major contender.