Only 355 days until Christmas. I can tell because last year’s decorations are still up.
Race 1 6-3-1
Oghma was claimed by Chris Englehart last may at Belmont, brought him to FL where he finished second in a $15K claimer. He’s the best speed in the race, but his figures are a little suspect. Horatio is an interesting horse. His top figures would win this race, but he hasn’t won since June. His last on the inner can be thrown out considering he was rank and wide all the way around the track. He’s the best late runner, so it may depend on how the track is playing. Political Farce was struggling with seconditis, then broke his maiden and won in his first try with winners. His last was on a sloppy inner, and although his only two wins were on the wet he never got into that race. He’s 0 for 13 on a fast dirt but has 7 seconds.
Race 2 2-8-5
Update: with the scratch of the 4 I’ll add the 5 Striking Impact. She has six starts and has shown some speed previously. She has a high wet track rating and Gyamati is 25% with horses debuting for her.
Pop of Color took the lead in the slop at GPW and only missed by 1 1/2. He’s got a bullet on the BEL training track and if the track comes up soupy he could be splashing wire to wire. I still have a good feeling about Relax in this spot. He has a race over the inner and was really not in a good spot at any point in the race. James Jerkens is not at all successful with second out maidens, so this might be a stretch. His figure is about the same as the 2 and the odds differential may be tough to pass up. Cat Ten is making hier sixth start and although she has been competitive, I’ll look at one of the second start maidens to fill the win slot.
Race 3 3-4-2
None of the 5 horses is without a chance in this field. In all honesty I settled on the 3 in the win slot but couldn’t separate the 2, 4 and 5. Stormalina broke her maiden on the AQU main in the mud in a splended time. She has a strong series of works since Thanksgiving including a bullet 2 days ago. RuRod has been ice cold, except in stakes races. On the down side, no other horse has come out of that November 7 race to win. But if she goes off near her ML odds she may be worth a look. Noble and Beauty also ran a strong wire to wire race at AQU. Three good works since her last should have her on edge. Paulasilverlining has been in two straigh graded stakes, winning the Matron at BEL. She’ll almost certainly be the favorite and if the track is playing fair she’ll be the one running at the leaders.
Race 4 3-5-6
Update: with the scratches of both halves of the 2 entry, the 6 Jigsaw moves into the top three. He’s got two wins in three chances on the wet track and is dropping substantially in price to go in this race. A good pressing style should help today.
Goodtolook was claimed last out for $20K, a price as low as he’s seen. He finished second to Be Bullish in that race, and Be Bullish came back yesterday to beat a pretty good field. That race was in the slop and if the track is similar today his chances go up. Moonluck is the stronger of the two entry-mates, but if Jacobson scratches Moonluck I’ll still use Midnight Taboo. Moonluck is by far the fastest in the race, and is 1 for 1 on the wet. Tizmas is 4 for 8 at the distance and 1 for 3 on the inner. He has superior breeding for the mud.
Race 5 3-7-6
Papous Mia Bella was squeezed at the start in her maiden race and never got into the race in her second out. Her initial figure is plenty good enough to win the race and at 12-1 she an attractive proposition. Naipaul Chatterpaul is a middling trainer, but he’s had the horse since the start and does cut her price in half. Bella Forever just missed two back and last out ran into a monster in Time for Harlan. Should be better suited for the mile. Dance for Joe is another that drops in half for Schettino. She wasn’t pushed in her last event but should be up to the task today.
Race 6 2-7-6
In Kelly’s Defense is a win type. She was claimed by RuRod and won first off the claim, jumped up slightly in price and onlymissed by 3/4 to my Donna Jean. She’s back at the lower level and despite the fact that RuRod is colder than the temperature in Denver, the horse tries pretty much every out. Liberty Fuze makes a nose dive in price but has the figures to be a factor here. Inaflash was claimed by Danny Gargan and is moved up slightly in price, a good sign. Gargan is 2 for 10 first off the claim.
Race 7 4-7-2
Jazzminegem has a first and a third on the inner and is running second off an 8 month layoff. Linda Rice has not been having a great winter meet, but her in the money percentage is 50%. Her first back off that long layoff she ran a closing third, although she’s shown a pressing style previously. Is the ML favorite, has the ridiculously hot Jose Ortiz and isn’t likely to go off at value odds, but looks strong. Zippity Zoom is the other Rice trainee. She broke her maiden last out on the inner after a strong drive and looks good for a repeat. Verismilitude is coming off a claim by Charlton Baker who is 2 for 5 lately first off the claim. Pressed a hard pace and missed by two and a quarter to Rock N Cozy. The latter horse has two seconds in a row, but only two wins in 32 starts. She does however have 9 place and 9 show finishes, so while I’m discounting her in the win slot she has a lot of potential in the back holes.
Race 8 4-7-6
Update: With the scratch of the 8 I’ll move 7 Seal Team Four into the top three. He took the lead in the slop last out and should be the leader again today. Will have to be caught so we’ll see how if the track favors his style.
This is a very competitive race and coming up with a winner was tough. I settled on Groomedforvictory. The old campaigner is 35 for 54 in the money. He’s 2 for 8 on the inner and his two victories in November were very fast. Was claimed two back by Joe Imperio who brought him back at a $20K starter allowance in the mud where he finished fourth. A return to the previous form puts him on top. joe Mooch faltered last out when wide at 6 furlongs. Seems better suited for the two turns. Five Freedoms is one out of two on the inner and is probably the best of the closing types. Had a great 2014 despite spending most of his time at FL. At 20-1, why not take a look.
Race 9 1-2-7
Stickler will vie with Alliteration for favoritism. Stickler has three bullets in a row, McLaughlin is 21% first time, and Irad takes the ride. Alliteration is the Chad Brown trainee. She also has a good workout pattern and gets the other Ortiz. Should be a stirring stretch duel. Smart Alex is a second time starter who fought with the winner through a half after breaking a beat behind and having to rush to the front. That is always a death move and with a better break could be the winner if the two first timers don’t live up to their billing.