Because pace and speed are very different from turf to dirt, it is important to develop a more specialized approach to turf handicapping. The following principles should go a long way toward making you more successful as a turf player

1. In graded races, class is critical. To put it another way, Grade I horses beat Grade II horses, and Grade II horses beat Grade III horses. I have a fairly simple method of assessing class level. A horse must have finished first or second in a respective Graded race where at least a third of the runners would qualify at that grade level. So in a nine horse, Grade I field, at least three of the runners should have Grade I credentials. The exception to this rule is the rapidly improving three year old. A three year old that has steadily and impressively moved through his conditions should be given every consideration once he enters a graded race.
2. Once a turf runner gets into shape, he tends to stay there for a while. In fact, it is not unusual to see a turf horse run the same figure over and over for five or six races in a row. As a general rule, once a turf horse establishes an ability level during the season, it is obvious and predictable. As I noted above, since turf racing is less destructive physically on a horse, it is easier to maintain a regular training and racing regimen.
3. Monitor where the inner rail is set on the turf course. Tracks regularly move the inner rail to prevent the turf course from wearing down on the interior lanes. For example, the inner turf rail at Saratoga was set at nine feet the second weekend of the 2010 meeting and 18 feet the third weekend. This change obviously makes comparing times more difficult. On a turf course of one mile, moving the rail out nine feet means horses will have to run about 30 additional feet. This translates to about three and a half lengths or seven tenths of a second. More than that, the extended rail exacerbates the advantage the inside or fast-breaking horses have.
4. Turf races are run at a much different pace than dirt races. High-octane speed horses such as Presious Passion are the exception on the turf. Turf runners are much better at relaxing during the race, generally making their moves in the last three-eighths of a mile, which is why it is common for turf races to finish with most of the field within a few lengths of each other. Most handicappers look for horses with the ability to run impressively in the final three-eighths. This is important, but you have to be careful not to overrate this statistic. It may not matter if a horse can run a final three-eighths in 30 seconds if you believe he will have 10 lengths to make up at that point. Determine how the race is likely to be run and assess each respectively horse accordingly. Don’t let ability to run a fast final fraction wholly drive a betting decision.
5. Ratable lone speed is even more dangerous on the turf, regardless of the distance. In fact, the longer the race, the bigger the advantage. Presious Passion was a freak in the 2009 Breeder’s Cup turf, but a good example of how speed can change a race. I’ve caught some great prices on horses who establish a three length lead on a 1:15 pace on a firm turf and stubbornly keep the closers at bay.
6. When you are considering an experienced dirt horse starting for the first time on the turf AT SIX FURLONGS OR LESS, don’t worry about turf breeding as long as the horse has shown quality front-running ability on the dirt. There are three reasons for this. First, most dirt races have a faster pace than most turf races, so the front running dirt horse has that advantage. Second, turf sprints are just too short to have the differences between the dirt and turf surfaces be as significant. By the time the advantages of breeding kick in, the race is over. Finally, as I previously mentioned, horses will hold their speed longer on the turf.
7. Anyone who spent time around New York racing has heard the phrase “Samyn on the Green.” This was a reference to long time rider Jean Luc Samyn’s attributed skill riding the turf. I’m not knocking Samyn’s riding ability, but I do have a suspicion that if his name had been Jean Luc Picard he would not have garnered quite the same reputation. In horseracing, if reputation gets a jockey some better mounts, more power to him, but handicappers should maintain a healthy skepticism about living on legend. In any case, I do believe that a jockey is important in turf racing, but neither horses, jockeys, nor trainers should get extra points because their name rhymes with turf, lawn, sod, green, or grass.

A good jockey creates one specific advantage: he knows how to keep his horse clear of trouble when it is time to move. Remember I mentioned how turf horses will often race under cover? Mediocre riders will turn that into a horse being blocked while premier jockeys always find a lane. But whether talking about the turf or the dirt, the best jockeys usually get the best horses and wind up with the best statistics.

While this is not an exhaustive survey I checked jockey statistics for the 2013 Saratoga meeting. The table below generally underscores that good jockeys are good jockeys whether the surface is turf or dirt, although Javier Castellano and Jose Lezcano did seem to find the turf especially to their liking, but then again they seemed to be the choice of the top trainers. One thing seems to reinforce the other. The bottom line—feel good if you have a competent rider on your horse, but start with believing the horse is a likely winner.

Jockey	Wins Main	Wins Turf
Javier Castellano	28	38
John R. Velasquez	30	16
Joel Rosario	23	18
Irad Ortiz, Jr.	14	14
Junior Alvarado	13	14
Jose Lezcano	5	19
Jose Ortiz	13	11
Cornelio Velasquez	10	13
Rosie Napravnik	14	5
Luis Saez	7	8
Jose L. Espinoza	7	10
joseph Rocco, Jr.	10	5

 

8. There is a great story told about Elston Howard, a catcher for the Yankees in the 50’s and 60’s. In 1963 he was having an MVP season. He credited hitting coach Wally Moses with his success. When pressed about that he said, “Wally don’t make you hit like him. He makes you hit like you.” In the same way, a good trainer figures out how to get the most out of each of his runners by using the horse’s natural abilities to their greatest advantage.

Great trainers are great trainers regardless of surface, but there are definitely trainers who specialize. In California, Neil Drysdale and the late Bobby Frankel were well known for having stables loaded with turf runners. On the east coast, Bill Mott, Jonathan Sheppard and Christophe Clement garner most of their wins in turf races. Do these trainers have an advantage? Sure. If you own a good turf horse it makes a lot of sense to give the horse to a turf specialist. They get good turf horses because they have good reputations and they have good reputations because they get good turf horses.

While there is temptation to overvalue a horse trained by a turf specialist, my advice is always to assess the horse first, then the trainer, then the jockey. And never feel bad about favoring a first rate turfer with a first rate trainer, even if that trainer isn’t a so-called turf specialist.

Up above I mentioned a trainer angle I look for based on the knowledge that grass racing is physically easier on a horse. Sometimes trainers with sore-legged dirt runners will move them to the turf for a few races. They have no interest in permanently switching surfaces, but this move will keep the horses in condition while giving them a chance to heal. When they move the horse back to the dirt, don’t ignore them just because there are a few clunkers on an unfavored surface in their past performances.