Opening day at Bel and the track is muddy and off the turf.

Likely Winners – S’maverlous (R3), Reach for Yield (R5), All is Fun (R8)

Price Possibilities – Hangry (R2), Super Sharp (R7), Who is the Giant (R9)

Race 1      6-1-4

Scat Away has been close in her last three and I’m betting she picks up the pieces if the speed burns each other out. Lakeside Sunset has good early speed and has the best dirt figure. Is definitely at the right level but will have to contend with Uncle Southern up front. The latter has been running in state-bred stakes and should benefit from the drop to the OC 40K level.

Race 2      3-8-5

Hangry jumps up to MSW after being in a $40K at MTH and that explains the 15-1 ML The trip in that race was not clean but he did make a good close to only finish two lengths out. Looking for improvement today. New York Song had a difficult start first time out but should adapt well to the seven furlong distance. Violette is noted as a good trainer of two year olds. Fish Trappe Road goes in his fourth start looking for win number one. Has been disappointing and not sure he is better at the stretch out. Blinkers come off today.

Race 3      6-4-1

S’maverlous has a win and a second in three starts and is 8 for 8 in the money at the distance. Frazil has ten starts at BEL and five of them have been wins. Has generally run consistent figures at BEL and the distance. Gentrify looks like the speed of the speed and will have to be run down.

Race 4      1-2-8

On the Trail has been off since the end of the spring BEL meet and perhaps the rest will do her good. Has competitive figures and gets a switch to Jose Ortiz. Nothingbutthetruth had the lead to deep stretch in his first try on the turf and Albertrani horses usually take some time to fully develop. Classy Teacher goes for RuRod and gets Castellano. Should come out  running.

Race 5      5-3-1

Tiz Fantastic is a Tiz Wonderful filly that finished second to the well regarded Constellation. Should take to the distance and Tz Wonderful’s are usually superior in the mud. Shayna Lady had a little trouble at the break and had the lead by two at the eighth pole but retreated. Has to negotiate another two furlongs today but with Chad Brown doing the training you have to expect good things. Desert Turn missed the break last out and still showed interest. Should thrive with the stretch out.

Race 6      1-4-14

Ride a Cat has the best speed of the horses that are left and makes a drop in price for this spot. Kowboy Boots is better than 50% in the money and should do well in the mud. Ogermeister is another that has seconditis but is well bred for the mud and drops in price.

Race 7      7-1-5-(4)

Yes for Success did well at this level on the turf. Her best races have been on the dirt and she is one of the horses that should be coming in the stretch. Buckskin Doll has yet to finish out of the money and her maiden race yields the best figure. Super Sharp ships in from LRL off a sharp maiden win. Castellano picks ups the mount. Prize Taker has 14 seconds and thirds in 26 starts, and has a high probability of being part of the verticals.

Race 8      6-4-11

All in Fun raced well in the Grade 2 Lake George and the Riskaverse and fits well in this field. Miss Ella raced well in her first turf sprint upstate and figures to improve. Spark has a huge wet track rating and should be the one to catch.

Race 9      4-6-14

El Genio is the speed and has a second on the wet dirt. Who Is the Giant had a lot more success when dropped to this level last out and looking for improvement.Wrought dops in as one of the MTO’s. He had a tough trip last time and should be much more effective from the outside post.

I had a great Saratoga meet, and those of you who followed me saw that I had a lot of good days at the meet. I’m providing the statistics straight up, although many of the winners would not have been bets because they were not overlays, so my personal ROI was much higher. I also didn’t do statistics on vertical or horizontal bets, but I will point out the best day I had at the meet, August 1. The statistics for that day:

• 10 winners in 11 races, Average Win Mutuel $11.20
• Early Pick 4 – $3,677
• Pick 5 – $40,243
• Late Pick 4 – $594
• Six Pick 3’s – $981, $920, $1,313, $189, $121, $237

If you had bet every Pick 3, 4, and 5, total investment ($2 bets) would have been $1,700 (assuming using three horses in each race) with total return $48,275. Of course, I did have multiple P5’s and P4’s throughout the meet, but one day like that could make a season.

Here are the meet statistics for my picks. To be clear, I provide three horses per race, and if any one of the three wins it counts as part of the total winners, and if two of the top three choices finish first and second it counts as a hit in the exacta. Since I recommend win bets and exactas, I’ll provide the return for both:

• Total number of races handicapped – 375
• Total winners – 216
• Winners on top – 92
• Win percentage total – 58%
• Win percentage top choice – 25%
• Average win mutuel (total winners) – $9.20
• Win bet ROI (based on total wins)   +$2.33 per $2 bet
• Two win mutuels over $50, two between $40 and $50, two between $30 and $40, and seven between $20 and $30

• Exactas hit – 106
• Exacta hit percentage – 28%
• Average exacta  winning mutuel – $42
• Exacta ROI   +$2.40 per $2 bet
• Highest exacta pay – $433.50 (8/20 Race 7)
• Exactas over $100 – 8

Second to last day at the Spa and if you ask me it is one of the more indecipherable days. I’ve had a great meet with tons of longshot winners. Yesterday I started out on fire with five winners in the first five races, with four my top selection. Here are my results for Saturday:

• 1st – $5.10 win, $10.20 exacta
• 2nd – $$12.60 win, $51 exacta
• 3rd – $12 win, $346 P3
• 4th – $4.10 win, $54 exacta, $212.50 P3
• 5th – $4.90 win, $83 P3, $762 P4, $2,805 P5
• 8th – $19.80 win, $187 exacta
• 9th – $5.50 win
• 10th – $4.40 win, $35 exacta, $178 P3

My personal balance sheet for the day was approximately +$2,300. Now, I don’t do that well every day, but I’ve had a lot of days this meet where I’ve done at least that well. The key is having win money on the overlays, betting exactas with confidence, and occasionally getting into the Pick pools. For me, and this would be my best advice to people, consistency and patience are critical to realize profit. . This week I’ll try to do a post mortem on my Saratoga meet. I’ve seen a lot of people complain about how tough the meet has been. I’d say there were some mystifying days, but overall there was a lot of money there for the taking and I took my share. While the exact amount is between me and the IRS, my profit for the meet has five figures in it! Good luck to everyone today whether you look at my picks or not.

Race 1      2-1-4

Race 2      7-3-9

Race 3      4-5-1

Race 4      6-7-4

Race 5      1-2-6

Race 6      5-6-4-10

Race 7      2-8-4

Race 8      4-11-2

Race 9      4-12-8-6

Race 10   10-6-9-7

Race 11   10-5-8-6

Race 1      7-3-1

Wynhurst looks like the best speed in a race where none of the closers look that dangerous. Pin and Win makes his fourth start of the meet. He was on the horses to watch list and last time he had his second excuse race in a row. He’ll be long and worth a long look. Tax Package is the stronger part of the entry. He’s not raced anywhere except SAR and has his lone win there.

Race 2      6-3-1-(11)

War Order extends to a mile and a sixteenth and that should be to his advantage. Violette is 34% first time out and sends Arctic Joy, by Kitten’s Joy a top turf sire. Highland Sky has a dynamite work from three days ago and looks ready to go. Matt King Coal is on the AE list and if he goes he’s a contender.

Race 3      3-5-1-(6)

Julie D is full of speed but will have to contend with Excuse My French. The two of them may compromise each other and if they do Predicate has a big chance. Theophilia is another one that prefers the front. The speedsters are all quality horses and the race really depends on the pace.

Race 4      3-7-9-(12)

Greenpointcrusader was coming on the well regarded Saratoga Mischief last out and should enjoy the stretch out. Ifyousnoozeyoulose is a bit of a puzzle. His sire Wilburn has had no success with first timers but the morning works are impressive as is Mike Maker’s percentage with newcomers. Revved up really ran much better than looked last out and gets a jockey switch to Irad. Possible at a price. If Star Hill gets in off the AE list he’s the potential star. He ran a mature race first out, gets a switch to the capable Johnny V and adds Lasix.

Race 5      6-8-7

Goodtolook has far and away the best last out figure, has Danny Gargan in his corner, and has speed on a turf that has favored it lately. Branded Hand was taken last out by Toscano and he jumps him up today. Good consistent figures. Blarp beat a $35K NW3 last out and was claimed by the well-named Joe Sharp.

Race 6      8-7-1

Furyofthenorseman showed a lot of heart in his last and with some improvement should be the one to beat. Gustnado is back at his winning ditance today and the figures say he should be right there. Tale of Life makes his North American debut for Graham Motion who is 26% with those shippers. Had no business in a Group 1 last time but is certainly the equal of these.

Race 7      (12)-2-10-3

Set the Trappe is the likeliest winner if he gets into the race off the AE list. HAs a lot going for him. Direct Message has looked good in the mornings. The down side – Albertrani is not known for his prowess with debut runners. But given the breeding and the sales price, I’d say this horse is pointed at bigger things. Clear the Mine threw in a strong work four days ago and goes for good debut trainer George Weaver. Silvertown is the most experienced horse in the race and has shown some talent.

Race 8      7-1-3

Frankly, there isn’t a horse in this race that you couldn’t make a case for and in the horizontals this might be an all ticket. World Approval is a G3 winner and had a bit of a tricky trip last time. Looks like one of the main contenders here. Money Multiplier comes off a nice run in the G3 Kent and picks up Johnny V today. Brown is going all out with everything he throws on the track. Takeover Target raced well in the G1 Belmont Derby and won the Hall of Fame here last out. Likely the horse to beat.

Race 9      2-5-6

Rachel’s Valentina had a nice debut and should have no trouble with the stretch out. Constellation showed a nice turn of speed and is another that should like it better as they go longer. Banree finished second in the Schuylerville and is not without chances.

Race 10   2-7-6

The Woodward comes up a competitive race, and there are certainly more than three horses that can be a factor here. Wicked Strong is a quality horse and anyone who watched him knows he likes SAR. He may run a different strategy and not let Liam’s Map get so far away. Protonico is 12-1 on the ML and failure to have him on your tickets would not be a good thing. Anyone who watched Liam’s Map last time had to be impressed with the horse’s class. He showed high speed and would have been a winner if not for the super effort from Honor Code. That race may have taken something out of him but he has had a month to recover and the works look good. He’s the one to beat. Effinex inherits the Honor Code role and should be flying at the end if Liam’s Map falters. He’s shown himself to be a solid Graded horse. Coach Inge is another quality horse and should have first run at Liam.

Race 11   6-9-4

The Glen Falls has come up basically devoid of any real speedster and that means Goldy Espony once again should inherit the front on her own pace. Hard to bet against her here. Regardez has been improving since the trip across the pond. Last race showed the kind of talent the connections thought they had in Great Britain. Don’t let the jump up fool you. At her best she’s the equal of these. Ceisteach has been delicately handled in the U.S. by Procter and it has paid off with three victories a second and a third. Interesting at the price.

Race 12   12-1-8-10

Hollywood Idol will have to overcome the outside post, but his first at SAR off a short rest  showed promise and the second should be better. Ralph Nicks doesn’t bring a lot of horses to SAR but when he does they usually run. Yankee Dealer moves to the Bruce Levine barn after showing some talent in a G3 at AP and winning an Illinois bred stakes. Front has been competitive in all his races this year and gets a slight drop in price in search of the win. With Exultation should be one of the horses involved up front. Has a win and two seconds in his last three at this level.

Yesterday was fairly formful, although the turf races seemed to be all about speed. The last two races were won by some cheap speed, so I’ll be upgrading speedier sorts on the turf today.

Race 1      7-6-5

Path Dependent had been off close to a year before coming out a few weeks ago at SAR. Broke a step slow last out and closed well. Previously had shown some speed so if he breaks better should be the main factor. Ready for You ran well first out in the same race as the top pick. Ian Wilkes has been ice cold at this meet, but the horse should improve off the start. Jockey stays for the trip. Bow Tie Boss makes the top three because he is the top speed in the race and speed was deadly yesterday.

Race 2      5-7-1

Noble Hustle has been gelded since his last race in May and he’s got a couple of nice works in prep for this one. Magical Connection takes another drop in search of win number one. Has some nice figures from his dirt races. Bird Humor dueled up front in his last and faded. Most of the other front speed has scratched so he may have things his own way at the front and never look back. Don’t leave out of the horizontals or verticals.

Race 3      3-1-4

A number of horses coming out of the same race, and all of them look similar. Capriana had the lead in that race and just did get nipped. Ack Naughty is one of the horses not coming out of the August 10 race. She dominated the field and doesn’t really change class levels. Take It Inside has done well at the distance and does have a second at SAR. 12-1 ML is attractive.

Race 4      4-1-6

Saratoga Snacks hasn’t fun a bad one in 2015 and has very competitive figures. Has been successful at the distance and at SAR. Empire Dreams was over his head last time but is back at a more competitive level. Zivo was running in Graded races last year and had a win in the G1 Suburban. Has done well off the layoff and Chad Brown is exceptional getting them ready.

Race 5      5-6-7

Native Gold is the interesting horse at 8-1 ML. He was taken last out by DJ after breaking slow and not getting into the race. Totally throw that race out. Before that he had shown speed and ability to finish at a mile. I like his chances today. Sandcat comes off the horses to watch list. He stumbled out of the gate, rushed up and expectedly tired. At 20-1 ML he’ll be on my tickets. Noble Doss was claimed last out by Bruce Levine who is 23% 1st off the claim. Cuts back slightly in distance and Carmouche is not doing bad competing with the big boys. Works look ok

Race 6      7-3-2

Egyptian Magic comes off the horses to watch list. She was an impressive winner last out, but does take a healthy jump up. Still, she has a decent figure off the last and could be a big longshot winner. Autumn Squall broke his maiden on the turf, did not finish his second start, switched to the dirt with some success and is back on the turf today. Has the speed to be a big factor here. Comet Sixty Two was taken last out in a rare claim by Chad Brown. Has been working well for his new trainer.

Race 7      11-2-3

Mind Your Biscuits is another from the horses to watch list. He was on the AE list, but got in and looks the strongest. Awesome Gent goes first time for the deadly Pletcher/Velasquez combo and the works look like he’s ready. Holdtherightcards is a Tiz Wonderful colt and they are often precocious. Just a bit of a stab at 15-1.

Race 8      8-10-5-2

Willow U has plenty of speed and has a win and a second at the meet. Swoop closed into what was more of a speed biased day and although the speed was ruling yesterday, I’ll still have him underneath. Chow Fun pressed last out and weakened in the same race as Willow U. Does have a couple of wins at the distance. William’sluckygray has good speed and I’m throwing him in based on the potential speed bias.

Race 9      7-9-3-2

Spectacular Me was an impressive winner last out and returns at the same distance and level. Iroquois Girl ran well first time out in 2015 and Ralph Nicks is 38% second time off the layoff. Hinder wired a field in courageous fashion last out after being off a couple of months. Works suggest she’s still in good shape. Runway Ready showed a lot of speed last out but couldn’t last. Perhaps a more favorable track and a reduction to the OC level will be the ticket.

Race 10   11-4-7-9

Plundering may appreciate the cutback in distance. Second time on the turf at SAR was a definite improvement. Hirshbein stumbled out of the gate last out and had no chance. Drops from MSW to the claiming ranks and Clement is 26% with that move. Heavenly Sun is another dropping from MSW to the claiming ranks after having a bad trip the last time. Better than the 10-1 ML suggests. Adirondack Posse is one of a number of these dropping out of MSW. Has the figures to be a factor.

What a day it was on Wednesday. More longshots than I’d seen on one card in a very long time. Of course, I had one of my horses to watch, Azar, come in at $24.40 and one of my top picks in the 9th, Escape to the Moon, pay $50. Goes to show you can make money even when the day is chaos. Just the numbers for Thursday. There are a couple of horses to watch going today. The entire list is available at http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=1969

Race 2      5-1-4

Race 3      7-6-4

Race 4      1-4-5

Race 5      10-8-7-6

Race 6      10-7-6-1

Race 7      4-11-6-8

Race 8      7-1/1A-4

Race 9      8-2-3-9

Race 10   1-10-8

Race 2      1/1A-4-2

Since Castellano is named on both horses, either Big Blue Talent or Alysaro will scratch. Alysaro was claimed last out by Asmussen and should be most of the speed if he goes. Big Blue Talent is not quite as fast out of the gate, but should be in a comfortable spot if he goes. Either way I like either to be there at the end. Aleander just came off a good win and doesn’t really change class level. Chase Lane drops almost in half for Pletcher/Velasquez.

Race 3      2-5-6

Azar comes off the horses to watch list for Pletcher/Velasquez. Site Road looked professional in his maiden debut. Unbridled Daddy was the winner of that Azar race and should be fit and ready here.

Race 4      2-7-3

Nickname had trouble at the start but still ran an even race. J La Tache was game in her debut and should be better today. Sky My Sky had trouble at the start. Love the two workouts since that one.

Race 5      1-7-3-8

Sanfiera is the preferred half of the entry. He ran fast fractions, had a clear lead but couldn’t hold. Should have a better idea today. Splendid Gold has been more at home at the $40K level and was closing in that same Sanfiera race. Glare Ice comes back in 8 days after running a good sprint on the dirt last out. Should be winging early. Jamaalaree has been competitive and looks like a potential play in the verticals.

Race 6      6-11-5

Baldonnel had no interest after being bumped at the start last out. Should do better at the route after dropping from NW1X to $40K. Ulysses drops back to the level at which he was taken and should be competitive. Humboldt and Frost should be battling up front and is better placed at the mile.

Race 7      1-7-4-10

Louisville First was slow at the break, rushed up to mid pack and did not have the energy to finish. Couple of nice works in prep for this. Ask the Lonely makes her second start off a short layoff. Nevin is high percentage in both categories. Acapella goes first time for Chad Brown and inherits the favorite role. Could have something to do with the $300K purchase price. Singsong goes first time for Kimmel and Castellano. Another $300K horse.

Race 8      1-7-9-8

Riviere Du Loup comes off the horses to watch list and is the prefered half of th entry. Market Outlook ran decently on the turf at SAR and drops down looking for the win. Picozza comes in off a win and a third at MTH and has competitive numbers. Pep the Champ closed for third at this distance and level last out and looks competitive here.

Race 9      8-3-4-7

Saratoga Heater was improved when dropped to this level last out. Comandante drops down to the level at which he last won. Escape to the Moon should be setting the pace and may steal this one. So Noted looks for three in a row and drops down to the claiming level for the try.

Race 10   4-5-8

Dynamic Decision makes a big drop from ALW NW1X to a $40K NW2L. Should be the move that tips him over the top. Trecastle was claimed last out by Maker and moves up  in price. He seems to have a lot of trouble at the gate, and perhaps the change from an apprentice to Rosario will make a difference. Stevie’s Moonshot should be coming late and the drop in price makes him far more dangerous.