Usually the day after the Kentucky Derby is an off day for me. The incredible energy expended in the run up to the race leaves most of us feeling deflated. It was especially hard for those of us who were rooting against the eventual winner. The great thing about horseracing is that your horse can lose and you can still make a case for him winning. Frosted, my bet, was far back early and went wide trying to get back into the race, eventually finishing fourth. Whatever you want to say about the race the top three ran, there was no way anyone was going to close by horses of that class on a fair (not slow, not fast) pace. Joel Rosario left himself a lot to do to win that race, and ultimately it was too much. Was Frosted the best horse? That’s a topic for hypothetical argument because yesterday the only winning horse was American Pharaoh.

On the other hand, I feel great about the way I bet this race. I used my general 50-25-25 approach and made the following bets:

• $200 win Frosted
• $50 ex Frosted/Am Pharaoh
• $20 ex Frosted/ Dortmund
• $20 ex Am Pharaoh/Frosted
• $10 ex Dortmund/Frosted
• $4 tri Frosted/Am Pharaoh, Dortmund, Carpe Diem/ AP, Dor, CD, Firing Line
• $2 tri AP, Dor, CD/Frosted/AP, Dor, CD, Firing Line
• $1 tri  Frosted/AP, Dor, CD/ 8 horses

Total invested was $375. Had Frosted won the race with Am Pharaoh second and Firing Line third, I estimated my collection would have been $6,650. Not a bad day’s work. I believe I bet the race correctly for value, although if you wanted to argue the $72 exacta with Am Pharaoh and Firing Line at $72 was value I’d agree. But the tri was not a great bet and I will argue with you all day that Am Pharaoh to win was not a value bet. In any case, I focused my money on my opinion, and unless I was willing to spend a lot of money boxing around with the top five, I needed Frosted first or second. I’d argue it’s worth $375 to potentially win 17-1 most days.

So on to BEL. As I said, this is normally a day off, but for those who need some help, my picks are below.

Race 1      6-3-1

Race 2      2-1-4

Race 3      1-2-5

Race 4      7-2-4

Race 5      7-1A-4-6

Race 6      4-1-7

Race 7      2-6-5

Race 8      6-4-2

Race 9      5-3-1-10

It’s Derby day, but for those who can’t resist Belmont, here are today’s picks.

Race 1      2-5-1

Overawe improved when moved to the AQU main. Has the fastest last race figure and Chad Brown in his corner. Woodford Pine is the other Chad Brown horse and adds shades today. Seems to be on the improve. Apache Warrior is making his debut. The workout pattern looks promising and he looks built to sprint.

Race 2      4-6-3

In a race with a lot of question marks, Mish Mosh seems to be the solid turf horse. Been threatening to break through for DJ and today he looks to have a solid shot.  Non Stop has been popular at the claiming box and last time he was taken he returned to the Cannizzo barn. Cannizzo has had success with the horse before at this level and the horse has also had success at BEL. Attractive Ride is a solid veteran that usually runs a competitive race.

Race 3      1-5-2

Tug of War has been stuck in third place in 2015. Fits at the level and the figures say competitive, but you have to demand value. Rap d’Oro is not often far out of a race and has a figure that could easily win this race. Private Tale has a lot of back class and perhaps the shift to the Mike Maker barn will put him back on the winning track.

Race 4      1-5-4

Riposte has been competitive with graded company lately and is very tough at the distance. Rosalind ships over from SA for Chad Brown and comes off two nice runs in graded races. Beauty Parlor shipped over from France and had immediate success for Clement. Best last race figure by far.

Race 5      2-7-8

No Tunes has won at 6 furlongs but the mile seemed a bit of a stretch, Should be comfortable at 7 furlongs and unless one of the turf maidens shows major adaptability she should be in the mix at the end. Miss Loretta Lynn broke her maiden on the turf at BEL. Has had some issues staying, but looks competitive in this field. Jewelisa should be one of the horses coming at the end and is another with competitive turf numbers.

Race 6      1-4-2

The Westchester has a short but distinguished field. Tonalist is back after finishing behind a quality foursome in the BC Classic. He has some workouts that suggest he’s in good shape and should enjoy the mile trip. Palace Malice ended last season with a disappointing performance in the Whitney but prior to that may have been the best older horse in training. He’s been working well and it should be a great race between the top two. Speedball Juba gets the other nod because speed is always dangerous at one turn distances.

Race 7      9-8-12

Boston Strong comes out in 2015 as a gelding. He’s shown a liking for the BEL turf and has a good series of breezes for the 2015 debut. One Eyed Ray is another who won on the BEL turf and hasn’t embarrassed himself is restricted stakes. Chasintheblues improved substantially on the BEL turf last year.

Race 8      3-2-4

Native Hawk was on the verge on the inner, has worked well on the BEL training track. Tommy Macho did not break well in his last but closed strongly and is also working well. Fortuitous Path should be the clear front runner and may forget to stop.

Race 9      3-10-4

Pretension is riding a two race win streak and it would be five if not for a hiccup on the turf last October. Looks well placed and no reason to think he can’t repeat again. Tizquick has a win over the BEL surface and should improve over his last on the AQU main. Ostrolenka was well thought of as a three year old. Disappointed in the 2015 debut, but does have the speed and class to hang on.

Race 10   1a-6-3

This edition of the Fort Marcy brings together a good field headed by the Chad Brown entry of Big Blue Kitten and Hyper. Of the two Big Blue Kitten is the most accomplished. She’s won multiple grade one races, and while he hasn’t been quite the same since turning 6, he’s a still a dangerous competitor and he does some of his best running when fresh. Divine Oath was running decently for Pletcher at GP although he’s finding the going at 4 just a little tougher than at 3. His numbers have been consistent and he should be pressing the leaders in this group. If he gets first jump he’ll be tough to catch. Unbridled Ocean has run well at BEL in the past and has stepped up to Grade 3 with moderate success in the past. He’s as consistent as they come.

Race 11   1a-4-6

The Cheyenne Stables entry of Classy Class and Special Ops looks strong in this NW1X allowance. Classy Class has been with superior horses this year, losing to the likes of Carpe Diem, El Kabeir and Far From Over. His entrymate Special Ops is on the improve and seems well suited for the distance. Gridley Here has been a useful NY bred and while this represents a small step up his numbers suggest he would be competitive in this group. Gold Shield puts the blinkers on for Shug after finishing second at this level a month ago at GP. No reason to expect he won’t be in good shape and a player today.

Race 12   9-1-8

This card-ending sprint on the turf looks like a good spot for A Marked Man to finally break through.He seems much better suited for the sprint distance. The drop down last time was a bit of a tonic and Linda Rice is decent off the layoff. Fear is another that seems better suited for the turf sprint and this price level . He needs to go from the one post and that should help him control the pace. Abandon Ship is much better bred for the turf and the sprint distance. While he hasn’t showed much, he has a little speed. Admittedly a bit of a stretch but at 20-1 he could punctuate the day with an exclamation point.