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Aqueduct November 29

Race 1

On the Turf: 9-2-5

On the Main: 3-1-8-5

Race 2

  • 5 Live Love Laugh – Broke her maiden at first asking, came back in an OC $50K and then laid off until November. She ran a pretty good race and has come back with an unremarkable 4 furlong breeze. Switches to Saez today and that is a bit of a downgrade, but if the speedier runners overdo it, she should be in a good striking position turning for home.
  • 1 Wavell Avenue – wired a field in a $40K MCL and jumps up to $50K starter. That might be asking a bit, but she started out in straight maidens and has Chad Brown conditioning. She has four November workouts and that should keep her on edge. She’s not going to be good value if she goes off near her ML odds of 8-5, and there will be a lot of speed to contend with, but she has a lot in her favor.
  • 6 Vision of Mine – broke her maiden three back and came close to wiring a field at this class level in her last. She gets a major upgrade to Irad and will definitely be part of the early pace battle.

Race 3

On the Turf: 5-11-9-4

On the Main: 13-12-1a-4

Race 4     Comely – Grade 3     6-3-1

  • 2 Shayjolie -was not factor in the Raven Run, although she had an awkward start. She came back in one of the top fall sprints at Laurel, the Safely Kept, and made a furious close to take second. She’s going to have to negotiate a mile and an eighth today, and although she broke her maiden at a mile there are horses more likely today.
  • 1 Penwith – one of the three Godolphin runners entered. This one has natural speed, one win at the distance, and a third at AQU on this day last year when she ran within a neck of Stopchargingmaria in the Demoiselle. She had some trouble when she couldn’t grab the lead, but seems to have come back to form. She’ll probably need to fight up front to have a chance.
  • 1a Snowbell – Another with plenty of early speed and seemingly better suited for the sprint distances. Still, as a Tapit she should relish the distance today and can’t be discounted. Doesn’t have any graded races in her background, and that has to make her a bit suspect. Still, she scratched out of the Go For Wand to take a spot here and that has to be seen as a positive.
  • 3 Dame Dorothy – Pletcher trainee came off a two month rest to win the Turnback the Alarm in a decent time. She has a good tracking style and given the speed inside of her should find a good tracking position.
  • 4 House Rules – this filly has been busy with eight races already this year. She’s had no luck at all at the Grade 1 level, but was running well in Grade 2 stakes at GP earlier this year. She’s coming off a solid win against much lesser on a sloppy AQU track so being a factor is not totally out of the question.
  • 5 Princess Violet – ran on Friday so should be a scratch.
  • 6 Catch My Drift – was right behind Dame Dorothy last out and was closing the gap most of the way down the stretch. Actually didn’t run that badly in the Alabama and has 3 wins in 5 tries. She’s a strong contender here.
  • 1x Divided Attention – while she hasn’t made any attempts at this distance, she’s beautifully bred for the 1 1/8. She was in the top flight of 2 year old fillies last year, came out at SAR after a long layoff and won a 7 furlong allowance. She folded like an accordion in the Raven Run, but I think she’ll be much better suited for this distance and if Irad metes out her energy, she has a good chance to be the best of the entry.
  • 7 Flipcup – She doesn’t have the figures of some of these and has been almost exclusively in state bred stakes, but she will be one of the closers and did finish second to Princess Violet, who lost the Go For Wand Friday by a slim nose. Might catch a minor piece.

Race 5

  • 4 March – Blame progeny are starting well at 20% first out. Chad Brown is giving him the usual set of useful breezes and his main guy Javier is riding. $320K purchase has been brought along slowly but looks ready for this one.
  • 3 Cat Fiftyfive – the best of the horses with a start, although that start was last July. Has been working very well at Fair Hill and looks primed for a return to the races.
  • 7 Good Pick Nick – Kieran McLaughlin is good with both first timers and two year olds. Excellent workout pattern and the trainer/jockey combo is 30%.  Given the $625 purchase price, great things are expected from this runner.
  • 8 On Tap – Linda Rice has been doing well this meet with 2 year olds and this one has a good recent workout pattern after breaking training in July. Might need this race but has a shot for a minor piece.

Race 6

On the Turf: 12-2-11-7

On the Dirt: 1a-4-15-9

Race 7

  • 1 Pulling G’s – wired a field in a good time but was just as effective on the fast dirt. A couple of good maintenance works and the switch to Rosario shouldn’t be an issue. There is some other speed signed on here but thoses wins put him at the top of the group.
  • 5 Celebrated Talent – another speedball with equally good figures. Got really good in the slop, but might have trouble holding on if he has to duel with the 1 and 7.  Will give the 1 all he can handle up front, and is probably better with the half furlong cutback. Shouldn’t have any problem with the fast track.
  • 3 Joking – just won at 7 furlongs, making it two in a row. He’ll be behind the front runners and should have first run. Not without a chance.
  • 7 Waco – the third part of the speed triumvirate. He really looks about the same at the 5 but will have to go around the other speed. Perhaps a little more up against it.

Race 8     The Demoiselle – Grade 2     6-4-3-7

  • 1 My Cara Mia – three turf starts but other than the maiden sprint win has not made a big impression.
  • 2 Calamity Kate – Seemed to jump up out of nowhere to win her maiden at a mile. Went to the Alcibiades and finished well back. Would have to jump up again today.
  • 3 Quezon – two very impressive wins, one in a state bred stakes. Actually adds Lasix today. She’s 5-1 on the ML but has a big shot today.
  • 4 Save Rock and Roll – Broke her maiden in the slop at MTH, came back in the Sorority and made a mile move in the stretch. She shipped over to BEL for the Matron and finished in the middle of the field. A month later she did the same thing in the Tempted at AQU. In all three of those stakes she had some trouble, either at the break or with a wide trip. She’s actually better than her 20-1 ML odds, and with a clean break and a good stalking spot she has upset possibilities.
  • 5 Gap Year – finished third in the mud at SAR but McLaughlin thought enough of her to run her in the Alcibiades. She was very wide, closed a little and then hung toward the end. She came back to nose out Eskenformoney in a maiden at KEE. Gets a rider upgrade to Irad, but still would have to improve a lot to beat the best in here.
  • 6 Condo Commando – runaway winner of the Spinaway in the slop at SAR after absolutely demolishing her maiden field. Was favored in the Frizette but didn’t handle the BEL slop at all. She’ll have a fast track today and if she runs back to her summer races she’ll be tough to keep out of the winner’s circle.
  • 7 Angela Renee – Was well beaten by the 6 in the Spinaway, went out to SA and won the Grade i prep for the Juvenile Filies, the Chandler, and then totally flopped as the favorite in the BC. She’s got the talent and despite the 2-1 odds, she’s got plenty of competition here.
  • 7 Jacaranda – winner of the Grade 3 Tempted at AQU in early November. Plenty of speed, but I don’t think she’s likely to upset this group.

Race 9      The Remsen – Grade 2     12-10-11-2

  • 1 Flashaway – scratched
  • 3 Combat Diver – Came out on the turf and never got into the race, then came back on the dirt at BEL to win a MSW in fair time. He may turn out to be a good one but I’m not sure he’s ready for this group.
  • 1a Moonlight Bandit – broke his maiden in his second start for Mark Casse. He’s well bred and Casse is known as a good trainer of two year olds, but I don’t think he’s shown enough yet to get a nod.
  • 4 Bodhisattva – he looks completely overmatched here,
  • 5 Thirtysevenliveson – Still a maiden and unless Romans has been playing possum, he looks over his head.
  • 6 Royal Burgh – Delicately handled by Pletcher. His maiden win was not particularly fast, but he has a series of good workouts and is well bred for this distance. A minor contender.
  • 7 Eh Cumpari – came from the clouds at 4-1 to take an off the turf event at AQU. It was not a high class maiden field and I don’t favor that sort of running style. I’ll pass.
  • 2 Leave the Light On – Chad Brown trainee has not yet seen a dry track but ran a nice wire to wire victory in his maiden in a good time. Given this will be his first try on the dry surface he could be any kind and can’t be simply eliminated.
  • 8 Keen Ice – Won his maiden at CD but was destroyed in the in the Breeders Futurity at KEE. He has some talent but I think he’d be a surprise today.
  • 9 The Truth or Else – the McPeek runner is not the same sort of 20-1 runner as a few in here. He won his maiden at BEL in his fourth career start. He then came back in the Champagne and ran third, but 15 lengths behind Daredevil, then another distant third in the Nashua. Both of those races were on wet tracks. He hasn’t shown any speed in his races, so will have to be coming in the stretch. I think it is not inconceivable for him to catch a minor piece.
  • 10 Classy Class – Smashing maiden win and he comes back with an impressive series of workouts. Well bred for the distance and a useful pressing style. One of the main contenders.
  • 11 Ostrolenka – Blew away his maiden field for Pletcher, then came back in the state bred Sleepy Hollow and beat a decent field, including Market Conduct. He’s been improving with each start and other than the outside post, has a lot of up side.
  • 2b Market Conduct – two state bred stakes, including a third to Ostrolenka in the Sleepy Hollow. Irad took off this one to ride the 12, but Rosario is not a bad sub. Probably the weaker half of the entry.
  • 12 Frosted – Took three starts to break his maiden, but in fairness he was likely to improve with distance. Adds Lasix today and has a fabulous couple of works in preparation for this. He’ll have to figure out a trip from the far outside, but otherwise all systems look go.

Race 10     The Cigar Mile – Grade 1     1-2-4-6

  • 1 Private Zone – Won the Vosburgh on the front end, and did very well in the BC Sprint despite having to run wide. Was second in this race last year after the same prep in the BC. That’s his only race at AQU and his best finish at the distance. He’s certainly talented, and given he’s only raced three times this year, should have plenty left in the tank.
  • 2 It’smyluckyday – has really had a great year, winning the Grade 1 Woodward and finishing second to Moreno in the Whitney. He lost as the odds on favorite to Vyjack but has been given two months to rest, and even went to Florida for the short vacation. Despite seeming to have a preference for the two turn races, he’s 2 of 4 at the mile distance, and certainly competes well in this group.
  • 3 Noble Moon – despite racing well as a two year old and early into his three year old season, he wasn’t able to beat the top three year olds in either the King’s Bishop of the PA Derby. He apparently detested the slop at AQU. On the one hand losing to BC Classic winner Bayern and top sprinter The Big Beast is nothing to downgrade the horse over, but he seems maybe a step behind the best in this field.
  • 4 Vyjack – had struggled all year in Graded races and then jumped up to win the Kelso. He is 3 of 4 at AQU and one of two at the mile. He should be coming in the stretch and is not without a chance.
  • 5 Transparent – Only two starts this year, the last one a win in an OC $62K. That was not a great field, and despite the 6-1 ML he’s one of the runners I’m not that interested in.
  • 6 Secret Circle – Another with only three starts this year, including an impressive second in the BC Sprint, the same race he won last year. He doesn’t have any AQU starts and we can’t be sure he’ll take to the track, but he’s got some massive figures and has run well in both of his mile races. He never runs a bad race, and no reason to expect him not to be part of the finish.
  • 7 Big Business – Did have a second in the Grade 1 Forego, but doesn’t look like he will be in the mix at the end.
  • 8 Regally Ready – hard knocking seven year old has won 6 of 9 races this year, but nothing against this level of competition. He’d be a surprise to me.
  • 9 Bourbon Courage – Made an insane run in the BC sprint to go from dead last at the stretch call to only lose by two lengths. While that was an incredible run, he hasn’t done better than a win at an OC $80K this year and is only 4 of 20 lifetime. It’s an ambitious placing and I don’t think I’m going to bite on his chances.
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Saratoga July 31 – Late Pick-4

Hard to say what the weather will be. It looks like rain is moving in, at least a possibility of showers in the afternoon so the later turf races might get moved.

RACE 7

This is not a straightforward race, and $25,000 starter allowances tend to be that way.

  • 1 Treasury Devil seems to like winning on the turf. Rudy Rodriguez claimed him last time, and Rodriguez is 31% 1st off the claim, although at SAR he’s been ice cold. In 2014 Treasury Devil seems to be at his best at a mile and a sixteenth, but he has gone longer.
  • 2 Media Kid. He’s been right behind Grand Rapport a couple of times and has about the same figures. But if you buy the handicapping philosophy that some horses just have other horse’s numbers, he may wind up second again.
  • 3 Grand Rapport. He fits about every way there is to fit and has a race over the track. 3-1 in the program, and you may be lucky to get that.
  • 4 Majestic Raffy is another one with a race at SAR, but he hasn’t won for two years. I’d say a minor player here.
  • 8 Sayler’s Creek had a win at BEL in May before beating up on a couple of Parx fields. My second choice.
  • 12 Manchurian High. Ran in the United Nations, a Grade 1, last out. He didn’t beat anyone, but he did top a 10-horse field in May at Pimilico. Another minor player.

RACE 8

Of the horses that have turf form four stick out.

  • 5 Shaun’s Blessing is one of those two start horses that has every right to improve. A definite contender.
  • 6 Storm has been racing well against state-breds. He wouldn’t be a total shock but I think he’s not as likely as some.
  • 7 Tiger Bourbon gets the top nod. He’s raced with better, including a Grade 2 at SAR last year. I think his last race is better than looked.
  • 9 Los Borrachos seems to have gotten a little high on the grass. A fast race last out and another improving 3 YO.

RACE 9

The feature is the Evan Shipman for state breds on the main at 1 1/8 miles.

  • 4 Sailmate has been knocking around with optional claimers but has run some fast races. I’ll be giving him consideration.
  • 6 Escapefromreality won the Albany last year at SAR at today’s distance. He finished just behind Sailmate in his last, but given that was his first race of the year I think improvement is more likely. The top pick.
  • 7 Awesome Vision has been knocking around with this kind for a while and is usually competitive. He hasn’t found his 2013 form yet, but with a win and a second at SAR, he could be the danger.
  • 8 Big Business is listed as the 9-5 favorite and loves to win. I think he has all kinds of chances, but I’m going to make him a play against today.

RACE 10

  • 2 Anmaat could be a single for me. He broke his maiden at the mile distance and didn’t race badly at BEL in his first race back after a 4 month layoff. This is a significant drop in class and I think that should put him over the top.
  • Most of the other contender look like professional NW2 horses. The 5, 7, 10, 11 and 12 are a combined 5 for 164. That doesn’t inspire confidence. Perhaps one of the other less heavily raced horses can surprise, but I think I’ll stick with Anmaat.
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Saratoga Preview – Part 1

I plagiarized this from myself. I’ve done previous Saratoga previews and I just liked the historical background aspect. Part 2 will look at trainers and jockeys. Part 3 will look at the intangibles.

Heaven is not in Iowa. No baseball fans, paradise is located on 350 tree-lined acres in the middle of the Adirondacks just off Union Avenue in the historic town of Saratoga Springs, New York.

On September 19, 1777 the first battle of Saratoga was fought at Freeman’s Farm. The American army led by Horatio Gates, but inspired by the mercurial Benedict Arnold severely dented the British troops of John Burgoyne on that day. A weakened and increasingly desperate Burgoyne regrouped and made a last ditch attack on October 7 at Bemis Heights, but his British regulars were soundly thrashed by the Americans. Short on supplies and suffering increasing desertions, Burgoyne retreated to Saratoga, finally surrendering on October 17 and changing the entire course of the war in the process, not to mention the history of racing. I shudder to think what might have happened had the revolutionary forces not held Saratoga.

225 years later, from July 18 to September 1, a whole different set of Saratoga battles will be fought, not on the rolling fields that separated the endless expanse of deciduous forests, but on a mile and one eighth oval of dirt and two courses of lush turf. Centuries of carefully mapped out breeding come together in a symphony of thundering blood horses and screaming fanatics that is the acme of race meets. I defy you to go to Saratoga and not emerge forever imprinted by the experience.

Saratoga Springs, like it or not, is defined by the track that seemingly dominates all human activity for six weeks in the late summer. It is the place where everything can be won or lost in the flash of a photographic instant. Trainers come to unseat the princes of the sport. Older horses look to solidify their reputations. And the owners of two year olds exude an optimism that can only come from believing the next Secretariat or Cigar or even Palace Malice is in their stable.

Saratoga is the prettiest and quaintest and best track in the country, without question or equivocation. Where else do you start your day by parking on the front lawn of an old Victorian house or under an old tree in the main grassy parking lot? Where else can you have breakfast while watching the greatest horses in the world finish their morning works to the expert commentary of the eminent horsewoman Mary Ryan? Where else do you look to be one of the early birds rushing to secure a free picnic table under some majestic tree? (That’s right all you tracks that loudly proclaim, no outside food or drink allowed. A real picnic with your own picnic food.) Where else can you hang out in a clubhouse filled with everyone from cinema royalty to real royalty to women in gaudy hats and bangles to match, to some guy chomping on a cigar he’s no longer allowed to light wearing clothes that Goodwill might reject? Where else do they allow jockeys to run a gantlet of irritated and elated bettors after a race? Where else do you have a horse of the year candidate pass within arm’s length of you on the way to be saddled? What other track contributed to the lexicon of American sports by changing once and for all the meaning of the word “upset?” (The great Man o’ War lost only once in his career in the Sanford Stakes on August 13, 1920 to a 100-1 horse that may have been totally forgotten had he not been named Upset. Man o’ War, one of the two contenders for Horse of the Century, was “upset” that day, and left the world with the definitive description of a beaten favorite.) Best of all, where else can you drag some racetrack neophyte over to the Big Red Spring, swearing it will be the experience of a lifetime, only to break out in laughter at the grimace that immediately follows the first drop of the vile stuff intersecting a taste bud?

I’ll tell you where. Nowhere but Saratoga. Win or lose, a day at Saratoga beats a day anywhere else.