How Important is the Trainer in Handicapping

If you don’t want to read any farther, the answer is the trainer is critical to the success of a horse.

In my blog piece about jockeys a few days ago, I mentioned my bias in favor of the horse. If a jockey has the best horse in a race and basically allows that horse to run its race, the vast majority of the time that horse will win.

On the other hand, everything about the horse is in the hands of the trainer. The list of jobs the trainer has is enormous. He has to figure out everything from diet to how to keep a genetically high strung animal from being a head case. The trainer is father, mother, coach, babysitter, amateur doctor, and the best friend a horse has. The horse may have an inherent ability, but only a first-rate trainer can get the maximum results.

If you read some of the reports from the recently completed Welfare and Safety Summit, you realize just how critical the trainer is. How often and how hard he works the horse is incredibly important to the horse’s long term health. The most important thing that I saw come out of that conference is that you have to have the perfect combination of races and gallops to properly strengthen and remodel bone.

The best trainers not only know this, but they know exactly how to accomplish it. Just like jockeys,

The best trainers get the best horses.

There are a bevy of statistics available through TimeformUS and Formulator. If you want to know how a trainer does on a Thursday in September when the temperature is 83 degrees and the horses is coming out of the six post, I’m betting someone has that information.

The problem with handicapping trainers is that we don’t really have interior access to the less public information. Oh, we knew that Alan Jerkens was “the giant killer” because he had a career full of victories over odds-on horses. But we weren’t exactly sure what he did that brought out the best in horses. Was it diet? Some special training technique that he stumbled into? His farrier?  Some concoction of vitamins and herbs he got from a shaman? No, we just took it on faith that every time Jerkens started a horse he was dangerous.

Remember Oscar Barrera, great claiming trainer, a man the Daily News referred to as “the miracle man?” Ray Paulick wrote this about Barrera

“Barrera would claim a horse from an early race on a Wednesday and, if the entry box for Friday was still open, might run it back two days later for a higher claiming price – often winning. He would run that same horse again in another three or four days. And again. And again. Barrera once won six races in a single month with the same horse.”

We never knew for sure whether he had mastered some secret of training, or he was the Linus Pauling of horse medication, but we knew that if he entered a horse three days after claiming him or moved a $40000 plater up to a Grade 1, we bet the horse on faith.

One piece of advice. Even with trainers like Alan Jerkens, you can’t just bet blindly. When you hear someone crow, of course I won – it was Jonathan Sheppard on the turf, take it with a grain of salt. Sheppard may help, but you still have to dig farther than that.

What are the key things to know about trainers?

  • Winning percentage is one thing, but what we really want to know are the sub-statistics. Sprints or routes? Turf or Dirt? Sprints on the turf? Claimers or allowance horses? Two year olds or older?
  • How does a trainer do when he raises/drops a horse in claiming price?
  • Does the trainer select the right spots for his horse? How many times have you seen a horse break his maiden in a $20000 claimer, move up to allowance company and have five miserable races in a row. The trainer needs to place his horse in a spot that will allow him to succeed if he runs his best race.
  • A trainer who is a “big fish in a small pond” moving up to a major track is always dangerous, especially if he has a record of successfully making that move. Check out the 9th race at Saratoga from July 21. You familiar with Brad Cox? He is a 27% trainer from the midwest who came into Saratoga and won with the 22-1 Overton Square. I think these sorts of examples abound. The point is that sometimes small trainers just want to be part of the pageantry of big league racing, but sometimes they have a live runner and they want to pick up the largest part of a $47,000 purse. That buys a lot of oats.
  • Trainers like Todd Pletcher race their horses lightly. They can do that because they are expert at training a horse up to a race. But not every trainer can replace the experience of a race with training. Many modern trainers feel tremendous pressure to show a high winning percentage, so they only try to run race-ready horses. Other trainers believe they must stress a horse gradually. You hear a lot of handicappers talk about “third off a layoff.” Pay close attention to those trainers that race their horses into top condition, and pay attention to whether it is first, second or third off a layoff.
  • Look at the workout pattern for certain trainers. Bob Baffert likes to work his horses quickly, often to the point where he is criticized for leaving a horse’s race on the training track if he loses. Every trainer has a preference for how hard or long to work horses. Know what it is and use it to your advantage.
  • While we are talking about that, how in the world are you supposed to know how well meant a first-time starter is off three ordinary four furlong workouts and a five furlong workout? You’re supposed to know whether the trainer has a documented history of success with that training pattern.
  • Look at horses in the paddock. Do they have healthy coats? Are the horses so keyed up they’ll use up most of their energy before the race?
  • Look at the medications the trainer uses. Trust me, it is a much longer list than Lasix and Bute. Do you know the medication rules for your state? They are readily available on line. The New York State Gaming Commission actually has an equine steroid administration log. If your state doesn’t make medication logs available, then you need to make a stink with your local racing commission.
  • Does the trainer have a specific go-to jockey in a specific type of race? Everyone knows Pletcher-Velasquez or Baffert-Garcia. But will the trainer go elsewhere when he has a horse he needs ridden in a specific way?
  • The Racing Form and TimeformUS publish statistics on how well a trainer does first after a claim. But can we break that statistic down farther? What happens if the trainer moves a horse up or down after a claim? How about if he runs the horse back in a week? How about if he waits two or three months? The micro statistics are just as important as the macro statistics.
  • How does a trainer do early in a meet? Inevitably some trainers bring their horses ready to run and others need time to get into the swing of the meet. Look at previous meet statistics and use that information to your best advantage. It is one of the few statistics you actually have to do some legwork to find out.

I’ll say something I say a lot. If the only information you use is the information everybody has, you are less likely to get a price on your horse. Either you need to put information together in unique ways, or you need to put together unique information.

Tell me what I missed? The great thing about a blog is it can always be edited!

Public Handicapping

My blog is a combination of thoughtful, researched articles on betting and handicapping and more off the top opinion pieces. This is the latter.

Last Sunday, I did a stint as a public handicapper at Arapahoe Park in Colorado. I’ve done public stuff before, but this was a little more intense. Before each race the announcer, Jonathan Horowitz, would throw it down to me in the paddock and I would give out three horses.

I mentioned the winner in 6 of 9 races, and I swept the trifecta in two. I thought is was at best a fair day, but the track folks seemed to be really excited and asked me back next week. So, if everything works out, I’ll be back in the paddock on Sunday.

The reports I got from my support section were pretty positive. As expected I stumbled through a couple of races, but eventually I smoothed out. Jonathan and the Arapahoe Park staff were incredibly welcoming and helpful and I really gained a lot of respect for how hard their job is.

I actually had a couple of stumbles. The 6 horse in a race I was doing was the third horse I mentioned and I kept calling him the 3. I got the name right though. In an funny follow up, the 6 finished second and the 3, whom I didn’t actually mention, finished 3rd. There were three scratches on the day, and incredibly enough all three of them were horses I was selecting. That was a scramble.

Here is the best story of the day. I gave out the 7 horse in one race. Now from where they had me on camera, I can only see the first part of the stretch. I see the 7 start to seriously back out of the race, but I can’t really tell more than that.

The cameraman comes back from filming in the winner’s enclosure and says, “the 7 died.” I said, “I know, he backed up big time in the stretch.” The cameraman said, “No, he really died.”

Strangely, I’ve been going to the races long enough that it’s the third time I’ve have a horse pass away during a race.

Shine Again at Saratoga

Today’s Shine Again Stakes was about as thrilling as a four horse race gets. Better Lucky came  from well out of it to snatch a four-horse photo.

The horse that may have been best was Grace Hall. She was blasted in the lane by Miss Aurelia and despite being knocked offstride, she recovered to miss winning by a head.

Do I know for absolute certain that Grace Hall would have won the race without the bumping incident? Of course not. But is it highly conceivable that having to check cost her a half a length? Of course it is.

There was a brief if not spirited discussion about the role jockeys Joel Rosario (Grace Hall) and Johnny Velasquez (Miss Aurelia) may have played in the outcome. One side said, Grace Hall was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. That’s horseracing. The other side said, in a four horse race, can’t you find a way to make sure your horse is clear of any potential trouble?

I’ll admit to my bias. I tend to think that it is 90% horse and 10% jockey, and if that is the case, it is far more likely that a jockey will make an error that causes the horse to lose than somehow find a way to get a horse who isn’t best to win. I watched the replay a number of times. I will concede that if Johnny V didn’t foul Grace Hall she had a lane to run in and probably would have won the race. As it was, she was bumped, lost some momentum and had to pull to the outside to finish the race.

I’m still going to give Rosario some of the blame. It was a four horse race. How in the world do you not have the ability to put your horse in a spot that allows it to run clear the whole race? How many horses could she have possibly needed to circle? Instead, Rosario allowed Velasquez to dictate Grace Hall’s race. Rosario stuck Grace Hall on the rail and Velasquez immediately made sure he kept her right there. Now that is smart race riding. Kudos to Velasquez and a little bit of frustration with Rosario. Bridgehampton, the leader, wasn’t going to let Grace Hall through on the inside. In fact, only bad things could happen from the position Rosario had her. Rosario had to make sure Miss Aurelia moved out enough to give him a lane, which was no sure thing. He had to avoid running up on Bridgehampton. And given it was a four horse field, Rosario chose to put himself in the position where the highest probability of trouble existed.

No, it wasn’t Rosario’s fault Miss Aurelia came over. But if you read my blog on jockeys posted the other day, I listed the jockey’s responsibilities.

  1. They break a horse in a way that allows the horse to establish the proper position.
  2. They steer the horse clear of trouble.
  3. They keep the horse on the live part of the racetrack.
  4. They understand energy distribution for a particular animal.
  5. They make sure their horse will have a clear lane to run in.
  6. They understand quirky trips (like 6 1/2F downhill at SA)at certain tracks.
  7. They move the horse at the right time.
  8. They relax the horse at the right time.
  9. They get the horse to change leads at the right time.
  10. They keep the horse running in a straight line.

It’s not an easy job, but  if the jockey has the best horse, and that horse doesn’t win, he has to shoulder some of the blame. He did something wrong, even if it was putting a horse in what turns out to be the wrong place at the wrong time. I’m just going to have a hard time believing Rosario couldn’t have done a better job of putting Grace Hall in the most advantageous spot to win the race.

Will Bobby Flay Save Racing?

Let me start by saying anytime a celebrity gets involved in horseracing, it is a positive thing. Bobby Flay, Jim Rome, Joe Torre, Drew Brees and others have been bitten by the horseracing bug. But Flay has taken it a step farther. Not only does he own, but he seems determined to make himself as well known in horseracing as he is as Iron Chef on the Food Network.

Will Farish, Jr – are you ready for a throwdown?

Flay decided to challenge Will Farish, Jr. for a seat on the Breeder’s Cup Board of Directors. That’s the same Will Faish, Jr. from Lane’s End farm. That would be the same Lane’s End Farm where A.P. Indy, Curlin and Zenyatta currently reside. Will Farish, Jr., the chairman of the Breeder’s Cup Board. Racing royalty versus the guy that owns, announces races, and hands out trophies in the winner’s circle from coast to coast.

Flay actually tied Farish in the original vote and there will be a runoff next week.

The question is, would Bobby Flay be good for the Breeder’s Cup and racing in general?

I’m on the fence. Oh, I don’t question Flay’s sincerity for a moment. I think he truly loves horseracing as much as he loves whipping out southwestern food at his many restaurants. But I have to wonder how the ubiquitous Flay can spread himself much thinner than he is already spread.

On the other hand, if horseracing has a novella of problems, you have to say a lot of them occurred while the Will Farish, Jr’s of the world have been at the helm. In all fairness the Breeder’s Cup is a pretty successful endeavor so the Board has done a pretty fair job of promoting it. But therein is the rub. Everybody loves the Triple Crown and the Breeder’s Cup, and they are big enough to attract sizable TV audiences. But it isn’t just those events that need attention.

Bobby Flay wasn’t raised on a big farm in the bluegrass of Kentucky. He is a New York City boy, and he still has a soft spot for the Big Apple. He’s an outsider, a man who wasn’t born into money but worked tirelessly to make himself famous, and wealthy, as a chef. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good, and Flay happened to be born at a time when being a chef could produce as much celebrity as being a movie star. Can you imagine in 1964 some TV executive saying, let’s start a TV network with cooking shows and cooking games all day? Probably made as much sense as the guy who pitched a 24-hour weather channel.

In short, Bobby Flay is an outsider elbowing his way into the boardroom of racing biggest event.

Could racing use the new blood? Absolutely. Is Bobby Flay the right guy? I don’t know. I’d like to believe he will represent the everyman on the BC Board, but frankly, other than elevating his stock in racing, I’m not sure what he represents to the $2 railbird. As far as the people who voted for Flay, I think they made an obviously self-serving move at the expense of Will Farish, Jr. Putting Flay in the spotlight can only help their marketing efforts.

It’s not a fight that we can likely influence. The BC board is an insider’s game. But I’m going to take the fact that upstart Flay can knock off racing royalty as a positive. Who knows. Perhaps a whole new cohort of wannabe Iron Chefs will get into racing just like their hero Bobby Flay.

I’m not sure he’s the underdog, but I like the idea of upsetting some apple carts. Let’s have the throwdown.

Saratoga July 21 – Late Pick-4

Other than the 8th race feature, I think the late pick-4 is up in the air.

RACE 6

This race is a chaotic maiden claimer for state breds at a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf.

#3 Fire Ship is a nine start maiden. For me as horses approach double digit starts without a win I downgrade their win chances. However, when a horse makes a dramatic turnaround due to a major change, I can ignore the increasing number of starts without a win. Fire Ship switched to the grass in his last and dropped into a maiden claimer, two pretty dramatic changes. Plus she showed big early speed at today’s distance and ran the best pace figure of her life. I think she deserves a second chance.

#4 Dixie Gem is a three start maiden coming out of MSW turf races. One of the best angles in racing is to back horses dropping from MSW into maiden claimers. She has a competitive figure and that combination is enough for me to put her in the mix.

There are a number of other horses with chances. I noted the #6 Bi the LIght of Day and the #10 Kevin’s Steel but the are in that category of more starts than I am comfortable with. The #8 Sweetdreamsaboutme only has two races, but in the last she showed a tremendous close, so I’ll assume she will be coming again in the stretch. Finally the #1 Make Your Point has one nice race on the turf at Belmont and a competitive pace figure.

“A” Horses – 3, 4

“B” Horses – 1, 6, 8, 10

RACE 7

It is another wide open five and a half furlong affair on the turf.

#4 Danceteria only has two wins in eight starts, but both were at six furlongs with one coming on the turf. He has plenty of early foot and should be tough to pass in the stretch.

#5 Mr. Rosenthal is a lightly raced six year old with 9 of 13 in the money on the turf. His second last was an excellent race and if he duplicates that race he’ll be right there.

#9 Dreamsgonewild has a win and a third on the Saratoga turf and if 5 for 5 in the money at the distance. #10 Sandy’s Slew has a win in her only start on the Saratoga turf and is coming off a nice second in a optional claimer at Belmont where she beat Mr. Rosenthal. #11 is shipping in from Presque Isle but definitely fits the class level. You may not get odds as good as you’ll see today on him for a while if he wins the race.

“A” Horses – 4, 5

“B” Horses – 8, 9, 10

RACE 8

With the scratches of Toasting and Angel’s Glory a six horse race becomes a four horse race. Actually a two horse race stays a two horse race.

#2 Grace Hall has obviously had some physical setbacks and is racing her third back after a 13 month layoff. She has finished second in both her 2014 starts and both those races were graded stakes. She seems more of a two turn horse but runs consistently well. She has one win on the Saratoga dirt and if she can recapture her 2012 form she has the right to win.

#4 My Miss Aurelia is a multiple G1 winner and 3 for 3 on the Saratoga main. Todd Pletcher takes over the training duties from Steve Assmussen in 2014. She is another runner who has had physical issues but her race in the Azeri should give enough confidence to back her in this spot.

“A” Horses – 2,4

RACE 9

This 8 furlong mile NW2 claiming event on the turf is also a fairly wide open affair.

#3 Belly of the Whale has only four starts and really hasn’t run poorly yet. He has the fastest pace figure and adds blinkers today. The class drop from AlwNW1X is actually a little troubling. At three years old this horse could have a lot of upside, but perhaps Peachtree Stables needs the win.

#4 Honor the Kitten is 3 of 6 in the money, although his one win came  on the synthetic at Keeneland. He has competitive pace figures and the switch to Castellano should help.

# 9 Handsome Dennis has twleve starts with one win but has done his best racing on the grass. # 10 H Town Brown just broke his maiden at Arlington Park and may be able to continue his winning ways. #6 Big Island Boy was claimed out of his last by Steve Assumussen. That could be enough of a positive for him to light the boar.

“A” Horses – 3, 4

“B” Horses – 6, 9, 10

Saratoga Jul 19 – Late Pick-4

The last four at Saratoga look brutal from a handicapping perspective. All four are on the turf at route distances.

Race 8

The 8th is a ALW NW1X at a mile on the inner turf. I’m  giving the nod to #9 Tasmona. The Chad Brown trainee only has three starts and she has been brought along carefully for her Saratoga debut. She should be able to establish a good spot even though she is coming out of the 9 post, and the combination of Brown and Castellano has been deadly everywhere, including Saratoga. I don’t think she is worth more than her morning line, but 4-1 would be a fair price. #5 Stock Fund is one of those horses I am wary about putting in the win slot, but seem a high probability for one of the lesser awards. That 28-3-11-5 record makes me wonder about the horse’s heart, but her three wins have all come in her last six races, so perhaps she’s decided being an also ran isn’t what she wants to do. #4 Mei Ling is an interesting horse. She has yet to run on the turf, but her dirt figures are very competitive. She is an Empire Maker out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the turf shouldn’t be a problem. The #11 Weave only seems to be getting better and better. In her last race she encountered all kinds of trouble, including being blocked, wide into the stretch and having to check around a fallen horse. I’m not sure if she was best in that race, but she was never given a chance to show her best. She is only listed at 5-1 on the ML, but may be one of the horses that takes action.

Race 9

The 9th is an optional claimer on the turf. The ML favorite at 3-1 is #8 Battle Force, and that shows the competitiveness of the race. I’m giving the nod to #9 North Star Boy, an Irish bred who has been generally consistent over the last two years. On the down side she hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle in 2014, but she does look to be in good form. #2 Pyrite Mountain is starting for the first time in the Todd Pletcher barn, and he wouldn’t have to improve the horse much to find the winners enclosure. He does have a win over the Saratoga turf. #7 Shock Leader’s last two races have been his best, and although he makes a slight jump in class he looks competitive. #4 Hard Enough won the Grade 2 Red Bank at Monmouth in May and led the field to the stretch in the Grade 2 Monmouth three weeks later. He should be the controlling pace, although I question his heart in the stretch.

Race 10

The Grade 1 Diana brings together some of the top turf fillies in the country. #4 Emollient should vie for favoritism with #8 Alterite and both are deserving picks. Remember one of my angles on the turf – Grade 1 horses beat Grade 2 horses, Grade 2 beats Grade 3. Emollient is a multiple Grad 1 winner and just barely missed notching another G1 in the Gamely at Santa Anita. She has plenty of tactical speed and should get good position from the 4 post. Alterite is another Grade 1 winner and is multiple G1 placed. She has a nice pressing style that should keep her well positioned, and the Brown/Castellano coupling has been powerful at the Spa. #9 Stephanie’s Kitten is another Chad Brown trainee that has been put in the capable riding hands of Frankie Dettori today. Stephanie’s Kitten has a win over the Saratoga turf, and finished a short half-length from the win in last year’s Diana. She should be one of the horse’s closing in the stretch, and if anyone can time that move correctly it is Dettori. #3 Somali Lemonade is a sentimental pick. I touted her in my 2011 Breeder’s Cup analysis for Horseplayer Magazine and have been waiting for her to emerge as a Grade 1 filly/mare since. Lately she has shown nothing but a front-running style, and could have a lot to say about the pace in this race.

Race 11

The nightcap may be a nightmare as some NW1X horses negotiate a mile and a sixteenth on the Mellon Turf. I’m going to go against the grain and take the 15-1 ML #3 Alarmed Ndangerous. I tend to like horses in effective NW2 races that have proven to be winners, and Alarmed Ndangerous has a creditable record of 16-3-4-4. He is a bit of a plodder, and you always have to worry about those types getting buried in the pack, but this is only his second start of the year and he could improve enough to win if he stays out of trouble. #2 All Included ran a powerful race first time on the turf, and seems to be the “smart money” horse. Given the ambiguities in this race, expect All Included to get strong action. If he is as good as the insiders think, he may leave this field behind just as he did his last one. #6 Alakazan Alakazan tried to steal the Maker’s Mark mile from Wise Dan, but was exposed as a lower class horse in the stretch. The Brazilian bred has yet to cross the wire first in America, but does get the services of the capable Johhny V for trainer Graham Motion. #10 Stableford has not been getting great trips since coming to America, and being on the outside today probably won’t help. Still, he fits in the field and at this distance.

So the numbers are

9-5-4-11/9-2-7-2/4-8-9-(3)/3-2-6-10

Saratoga Jul 18 – Late Pick-4

Update: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times in the Pick-4. The best of times because I hit it, the worst of times because the scratches had it paying $89. In the 7th race Tiz Sardonic Joe threw a shoe before the race. They decided to let him run, but for purse money only. As expected the #8 Joe’s Blazing Aaron sprinted to the lead and wired the field with “Shoeless Joe” making a race out of it for second. Monument Hill picked up the payoff place. So everyone who had the 3 wound up with the 8, which kept a lot of the crowd alive for the Pick-4. The 8th race had four early scratches so a field of only seven went postward. As expected Adventure Love led all the way around the track with Kiss Me Lola second and Ballerina Belle third. The 9th race went to Tourist with Ring Weekend second and Storming Inti third. The 10th race was my strongest play, Jet Majesty. Jet Majesty was hanging around as the second choice to Winter Wish, but unfortunately Winter Wish went cuckoo for cocoa puffs in the paddock and was scratched. So all the Winter Wish money went to Jet Majesty, dropping the Pick-4 pay from $160 to $89. It may have been closer to $300 if Tiz Sardonic Joe stayed in the 7th race and won and Winter Wish stayed in the 10th and won. But, it was a hit to start the season. 

Opening day at the Spa is always testing for handicappers. Shippers from different tracks, layoff horses that have been prepping for Saratoga, and horses hoping to carry over Belmont form. You have to love that the late pick-4 has mostly full fields entered. I’d be shocked if the late pick-4 wasn’t a big one.

Race 7

There is a lot of ambiguity in this race. #2 Monument Hill has a lot of positives. George Weaver does well at Saratoga, the horse seems to be at the right class and distance, his pace figures are competitive, he has a second over the track, and he should be able to establish good position from the inside post on the tighter-turned inner turf course. #8 Joe’s Blazing Aaron should go off as the favorite. With his natural speed he should be able to clear the horses to his inside, but that hard run to the first turn might take something out of him. He is 0 for 7 at the distance and 0 for 2 on the Saratoga turf. On the positive side, Michael Maker and Javier Castellano have formed a potent combination, and there is no reason to worry about the layoff since late May. Still, with only one win in the last two years, I wouldn’t call him a standout. I suspect either he wires the field or airballs. #3 Tiz Sardonic Joe is a lightly raced 5 year-old that seems to be in good condition. He was black type stakes placed a little over a year ago and is 2 for 3 on the Saratoga Turf. Having Frankie Dettori up can’t hurt. If you are going deep in your pick-4’s, the #4, #5, and #7 at least have the potential to upset.

Race 8

Because of Saratoga’s configuration, turf sprint races are run at the 5 1/2 furlong distance. #10 Ballerina Belle might be the best closer in the race, but she may have trouble if she doesn’t get a good early position. If she is no more than three or four back entering the turn, she could run by them all. #3 Adventure Love is a turf sprint specialist who gets the services of Frankie Dettori. She comes off a strong win at Arlington Park at today’s distance. Her pace figure makes her competitive and she should be able to establish a strategic position. #4 Kiss Me Lola has a win and a close second on the Saratoga turf and lately has been staying well in turf sprints. If she runs back to last year’s Saratoga’s winning race, she should notch her second win. The five year-old mare #1 Zamquick just broke her maiden at five furlongs and could improve now that she’s learned to win.

Race 9

#1 Storming Inti and #5 Tourist should vie for favoritism, and rightly so. #1 Storming Inti is for 4 for 9 lifetime and is graded stakes placed. He’s had a consistent career and even has a third at Saratoga. #5 Tourist won his first race for winners in hand by open lengths. Since switching the horse to the turf trainer Billy Mott has seen the horse blossom. She will be very tough today. #7 Ring Weekend has been way over his head since winning the Tampa Bay Derby. He does have a nice second on the Gulfstream Park turf and trainer Graham Motion seems to have put him in a more reasonable spot. #2 Cabo Cat is also well spotted and has been very competitive in his last three.

Race 10

The nightcap  is a 1 1/16 mile turf maiden for state-breds. In these races it either looks obvious or totally chaotic. Today it is closer to chaos.  If you read my piece an angle handicapping, you would know one of the strongest angles, especially in maiden races, is betting a horse with figures from the previous year higher than any other horse has from this year. #9 Jet Majesty fits that bill. The Wesley Ward trainee opened up her career in a turf sprint at Belmont and ran respectably. She then came back a month later and finished third by a length to males before laying up over the winter. Ward does well with layoff horses and the switch from Abel Lezcano to Frankie Dettori is about as positive as it gets. The rest of the field all have their negative and positives. #1 Resolutely hasn’t started since last year at Saratoga, but does have a third over the course. #8 Winter Wish had an eventful race last time, being steadied at the start and racing six wide into the stretch.  She has figures that should put her in the mix. #11 Chasing Paradise has raced consistently over the turf and should do well if she gains good early position. #5 Traipse in Utopia was well over her head the last time but should be charging at the end.

How Important is the Jockey in Handicapping?

In most races AT A RESPECTIVE TRACK, the answer is, not that important. In most races, the horse is about 90% of the winning formula if the horse gets a reasonably competent ride. If you gave me a Ferrari and Dale Earnhardt a Hyundai Elantra I’m pretty sure I’m winning that battle. My certainty comes from the fact that people who drive with me often ask if I think I am at Daytona. Well that and the fact a Ferrari is just way faster than an Elantra. But Earnhardt might finish closer than my next door neighbor.

The jockey helps a horse to win in the following ways:

  • They break a horse in a way that allows the horse to establish the proper position.
  • They steer the horse clear of trouble.
  • They keep the horse on the live part of the racetrack.
  • They make sure their horse will have a clear lane to run in.
  • They understand energy distribution for a particular animal.
  • They understand quirky trips (like 6 1/2F downhill at SA)at certain tracks.
  • They move the horse at the right time.
  • They relax the horse at the right time.
  • They get the horse to change leads at the right time.
  • They keep the horse running in a straight line.

When they do these things they give the horse the best chance to win, and yes, better jockeys do it better than poorer jockeys. But don’t believe that putting Javier Castellano on a 1 for 27 horse in a NW2 race is suddenly going to change the horse from also ran to winner. If you like a horse and one of the top 10 or so riders is in the saddle, you’re fine.

For anyone considering jockey as a career, I am giving you the absolute secret of success. Ready?

GET THE BEST HORSES.

In my experience, and this is anecdotal, for every time I get a brilliant ride, I get about five bonehead rides and 25 my-horse-did/didn’t-have-it-today rides where the jockey was irrelevant.

Yes, if you lose a race with what you think is the best horse it is not unusual to give the jockey some of the blame. I had a race at Belmont last Sunday where a jockey who has actually won a Breeder’s Cup race, broke the horse I bet on sharply, and instead of playing to his presser running style,  strangled him back to last and made a big sustained close in the stretch to finish second. You’ll never convince me I got the right ride.

Jockey’s lose races with poor rides far more often than they win races with brilliant rides, but about 90% of the time the win/loss has less to do with the jockey than the horse.

I’m not dogging jockeys. They have a job with a danger quotient about the same as great white shark biologists. In fact, I’ll say that if most of us got treated at work as shabbily as jockeys, unions would make a comeback like it was 1914 instead of 2014. That doesn’t change my opinion about handicapping a race. Most riders at your respective race meet are competent within their peer group, and if you give them the right horse they have a chance to win.

When a jockey makes it on a particular circuit, it is definitely related to hard work and staying in great condition. But at the risk of repeating myself, the difference between the top jockey at a meet and the 10th best on the standings is more a matter of the horses they are getting. Johnny Velasquez is a great rider, but it didn’t hurt that he was getting all of Todd Pletcher’s horses. Travis Wales, the leading rider at Arapahoe Park, is probably never going to ride in the Kentucky Derby, but not because he would have turned California Chrome into an also ran. And if he went to New York to ride, he’d be lucky to get a mount.

THE BEST JOCKEYS GET THE BEST HORSES, AND THE BEST HORSES GET THE BEST JOCKEYS.

Here are some other questions I get asked.

Are some jockeys better on the dirt? Yes, they are called the leading riders at the track.

Are some jockeys better on the turf? Yes, they are called the leading riders at the track.

And that is pretty much the answer to all your questions.

Slot Machines at Arapahoe Park Gets on Fall Ballot

Once again Arapahoe Park is going after a bigger slice of the gambling dollar by getting a measure to allow 2,500 slot machines at the track on this year’s ballot. You can read the details in this Sentinel article from May of this year.

Do I think it is a good idea? The libertarian in me says the state should  only be concerned about facilities meeting their license requirements, but should not decide whether or not we have enough casinos. The horseracing fan in me says, even if this is a way to keep horseracing going, it is not the long term solution to the problems horseracing has. And if you don’t believe me, just read about Delaware Park after they allowed casino gambling. You can also read one of my earlier blogs below on how to save racing.

Naturally the people in favor of the initiative cite revenue sharing with the state’s education fund. I’ve cynically noted that if someone wanted to get public executions on pay per view, they’d offer part of the profits to the state education fund. Even I will concede that the gambling revenues might not the best choice to save education. (How about slot machines with the jackpot being CSAP-CSAP-CSAP instead of cherries?)

This whole issue of slot machines only affects me inasmuch as it affects racing. Even in Vegas the only time I used to play slots was when I had a loose quarter in my pocket, and now you can’t even get into a slot with less than a dollar. It’s a sucker’s game, and anyone who understands the statistics of gambling knows that. So for the most part,  I really don’t care if I have a casino five miles from my house (far enough to not affect my home value).

Guess who opposes the initiative? That’s right. The existing casinos in Cripple Creek, Black Hawk and Central City. Ostensibly, the reason for allowing casinos in the first place was to give those historic mining towns an economic boost. I was here when they passed that initiative, and I guarantee it was sold as a way to give a few bars an old west flavor with a few one-armed bandits and a poker table. Have you seen the Ameristar  in Black Hawk? Doesn’t exactly scream Miss Kitty’s saloon, does it?

Here is what Lois Rice, executive director of the Colorado Gaming Association said about a casino in the Denver metro area: “If there was gambling available in major metro areas in the state, there would be no incentive for folks to drive to the historic mining towns,” she said. She said the state would lose all the revenue created by those casinos.

Seriously? The casino at Arapahoe Park wouldn’t replace that money and even more? Besides, if you live anywhere on the west side of town, Black Hawk and Cripple Creek are miles closer than Arapahoe Park, a facility about as far east as development has occurred. On the other hand, people who live on the east side of town are not regularly driving to the mountain casinos that often because it is a 60-90 minute trip, unless of course they dream about slot machines all day. For most people who enjoy the occasional game of chance, the mountain casinos are akin to that trip to Elitch’s. Once or twice a year is plenty. Anybody who understands geographical location and its relation to human behavior (I actually have a degree in that) knows that there are only so many things people will drive an hour and a half to enjoy regularly.

One other question. Is the executive director of the Colorado Gaming Association somehow biased here? Why should the Gaming Association care where the casinos are unless….ok, I won’t say it.

I’m not backing Arapahoe Park here. I’m just saying, nobody should have an exclusive right to casino gambling in a state that allows casino gambling by entities other than the Indian Tribes (a whole separate discussion).

Let’s call the opposition what it really is. Either protectionism by the mountain casinos or moralizing by people who believe gambling is on the devil’s list of things he loves. And that’s fine. There are plenty of issues people will disagree on. Just be honest in why you have a position.

A Denver Post editorial came out against the initiative. Their basic reason seems to be that because we are not preserving historic mountain towns (with mega hotels/casinos) there is no reason to approve this initiative. We did our duty 24 years ago (and I’m guessing they mean we probably made a huge mistake in doing so) and that is that. But the editorial undertone I was getting was, gambling is a scourge and just because we have to put up with it in the mountain towns is no reason to put up with it anywhere else.

Now I will say this. If they are going to generate major traffic to Arapahoe Park they better have a plan for improving Quincy Avenue and Gun Club Road. It’s already a mess at rush hour and that’s just from the developments that are popping up like the prairie dogs they are displacing.

Like most things, piecemeal is the wrong way to go about solving a problem. If the race track needs help, there are ways to do that. If education needs help, then we need a strong and sensible comprehensive state policy to address that. And if there is an incredible pent-up demand for slot machines, we should figure out that too. Just because someone is already here doesn’t mean the door should slam shut. Unless, of course, we are talking about…..never mind.

The Four Most Important Things to Know When Handicapping a Race

Only four, you say? Well of course there is a lot more to handicapping than what I’m going to say below, but if you don’t know these four things, you’ll be starting in a hole.

At today’s distance and surface, what style is winning? Most of us have a way of assigning running style to a horse. I use early, presser, sustained in the following way.

  • E – normally runs on the lead
  • EP – will run on or very near the lead
  • PE – usually won’t take the lead but will be within a length or two of the frontrunner
  • P – prefers running just off the pace
  • PS – will be midpack but prefers running on from off the pace
  • SP – prefers running from the back with a closing style
  • S – a plodder early, will make up ground in the stretch

Let’s look at the last week of the Belmont meeting.

  • Dirt Sprints – E=2, P=7, S=3
  • Dirt Routes – E=4, P=5, S=2
  • Turf Sprints – E=7, P=4, S=0
  • Turf Routes – E=4, P=5, S=3

This gives us a recent track profile (for all the good it will do considering the meet ended Sunday). In dirt sprint races, horses just off the pace do best. In dirt routes, generally the same, although speed holds up a bit better. In turf sprints the sustained runners could not crack the win column, with the early speed and pressing types dominating. In turf routes the pattern seems to be more even, so any style has a chance to win.

Next we want to look at the placement of the horse in relation to the rail. On Sunday July 13 the track seemed to play fair for dirt runners, neither favoring the rail or mid-track runners. Usually when biases develop they are short-lived, often related to weather incidents. When I look at biases, I generally will look at two things: how does the track play in off-weather conditions and how does the track play immediately after a weather incident? So if we were playing Belmont today, we’d be most interested in early speed/presser types in sprints, pressers in dirt routes and presser/sustained in turf routes and generally we aren’t going to be concerned about post position as long as our choice can get an attacking position.

Which race do I use to evaluate my horse? Most people look at a horse’s last race, and it is important to look at the last race. But if it is not at today’s distance or surface, we may want to use another race for our evaluation. When we get to questions three and four, this will become clearer.

Generally I want to look for a recent race that is at (or within a half furlong of) today’s distance, on today’s surface, where the horse won or finished within a couple of lengths of the winner. It is usually the case that the shorter the race, the higher the number, so I want to know how well a horse runs at today’s distance. Does that mean I use a race from a year ago, or even two months ago? Only if I think it is really representative. At the end of the day, the condition a horse is currently in trumps all else.

Now if you are evaluating a horse who has been off for a while, you should look at any similar comeback races on the past performance in addition to other competitive races. The Racing Form and Timeform U.S.can give you lifetime past performances. The Racing Form and Timeform U.S. also give you statistical information on trainer success with layoff horses.

Races where the horse gets a good number but where the horse was far back are generally not going to be as useful as races where the horse was competitive. It is often the case that the better horses “pull” a runner along with them, and you often see this in horse coming from higher classes into lower class races. I just don’t trust a figure earned from a race where a horse ran eighth by 10 lengths.

Finally, you have to make an overall evaluation of the horse’s interest in winning. When you see a maiden with the lifetime record of 17-0-6-6, no matter what the horse’s figure, you have to steeply discount the winning probability, even if the horse has a top figure.

How fast can my horse run? I want to know what my horse is capable of running when he is at his best. If my horse ran his best race today, would he be competitive? Which begs the last question

Can my horse run a winning race today? At this point you have most of the basic information you need to answer the important questions. Does my horse have the right running style? Do I think he is fast enough to win? Is he in good enough condition to win?

There are other factors, of course. Trainer or jockey may influence your handicapping. Moving up or down the class ladder (negative or positive class drops, e.g.) can be worth evaluating. Track condition could be critical. Changes in equipment or medication or a move to a new barn have to be considered. But the essential task of handicapping is to find the horse you believe will run fastest today.