I’ll explain up front that I have a varsity scrimmage I’m working early tomorrow so I won’t have an opportunity to adjust picks for off the turf or scratches. Unlike my usual pattern where I post about half an hour before post time, I’ll be posting Friday night, well before we know changes at NYRA. In the turf races I haven’t written up a detailed analysis — instead I just gave picks for the turf and dirt– but those are the picks I would have elaborated on either way, depending on scratches. I’ll be back about post time, and at that point I’ll see about adjusting the later races. In any case, take the turf races for what they are worth. By the way, you should always feel free to tweet me if you are wondering about my thinking on any particular horse.

Race 1

• 1 Forty Nine Karats – I like four things about the horse. He adds Lasix, although if you watch his last race I don’t think bleeding had anything to do with the finish; he got a fast work 7 days ago; he only has one start so improvement is possible; and he switches from turf to dirt where he is MUCH better bred. He’s 12-1 and the two horses that are favorites on the ML are not world beaters.
• 8 Awesome Lute – Flubbed when trying the turf in a MSW last out, but before that he ran ok in two MCL $40K races. Although he is listed at 2-1 ML I don’t see him as a lock, but in this group he doesn’t have a lot of competition.
• 5 Bad to the Road – five starts, two thirds and the same mediocre figures as a couple of the other starters. He may actually be the most likely horse to set the pace, although he’s not exactly a speedball. 8-5 on the ML is hard to take, but he may have to find his way onto your horizontal tickets.
• 4 Show of Force – first timer for Schettino has decent works and the trainer is fair with debut horses, a little better with first time maiden claimers. We’ll see how good he is today.

Race 2

• 1 Tiz Elusive – Tiznow first timer for Gary Contessa has an interesting set of works. Started with some fast moves at the Training Center at Copper Crowned in Louisiana, got a couple of works to build bottom at AQU and BEL, and had a nice breeze ten days ago. Contessa is only fair with firsters but this might be one of the successful ones.
• 6 Hythe Gardens – McPeek also just fair with younger horses. I’d like to see a few longer works, but seems to have been building the horse for speed. He’s bred beautifully for the distance so maybe the workout pattern won’t be a hinderance.
• 2 Channel of Love – has had the misfortune of two off tracks and puts the blinkers on today. I’ll give him another shot on the fast track today.

Race 3

• 8 Attractive Ride – old campaigner still giving the youngsters a run for their money. David Cannizzo is training now and puts the blinkers on, although he doesn’t look like he needs focus. He’s got some very nice back figures – I think you excuse the last one on the slop. Saez has to give the right ride and that is not a sure thing.
• 7 Love To Run – racing well lately. There are a lot of horses with a preference to run to the front, so he may have some trouble getting a good tracking spot
• 1 Patriot’s Voyage – another speedster who was 3 of 4 last year and only has one start in March this year. Baffert seemed to have the horse until June or so when David Jacobson was able to purchase the horse. Obviously Baffert likes to work his horses quick and Jacobson has just given the horse one slow work since June, which is why he’s my third choice.
• 6 Volastic – can track and that makes him one of the few in this race. He should get a decent tracking sport and seems to like finishing in the money.

Race 4

On the Turf: 4-3-9-2

On the Main: 16-9-15-3

Race 5

• 6 Sunny Desert – was dominant in 2013 at AQU in these state bred stakes. She’s had four races this year with a second and a third, and it is of concern that her best figures were on sloppy tracks, but she’s had plenty of success on fast tracks. She should like the distance – she’s one for one lifetime. At 3-1 ML she’s a fair bet.
• 10 Storied Lady – has been running with these sorts all year. Likes to come from farther back and seems more comfortable at route distances. Does have a second at the distance and certainly has good enough figures to make it her day.
• 2 Uncle Southern – Six furlong and wet track winner has no experience at the distance, although her last race on the mud at FL was a clunker. Somewhat ambiguous but I like that she seems to give an effort every time.
• 5 Champagne Ruby – another that runs in this company regularly. Won the Niagara at FL and actually ran pretty well in the Arctic Queen, but it does appear that 7 furlongs might be the edge of her ability.

Race 6

• 5 Monster Mash – has a great figure off his last win, although it was on a muddy track. Of course every horse that raced at BEL seems to have recent races on wet tracks. Has a second at AQU. Will have to press since some better speed is signed on. Englehart has a high percentage with horses coming off a win and Jose Ortiz stays for the trip.
• 8 Honor Code – It may have been silly not to put him on top, considering he was in the conversation about the Kentucky Derby late last year. He was a close second in the Champagne and won the Remsen. Something happened because he was off until March and came back in an open allowance where he was drubbed by Social Inclusion, a pretty talented horse on his own. He got the comment “hard to load” which could have explained why he gave it up in the lane. He’s probably better meant for longer distances, and I always have a bit of discomfort when a horse comes out at the wrong distance in a lower level allowance – could be some exercise or he could win in a romp. Have to use but he should get overbet.
• 7 Pure Sensation – Puts the blinkers on for Christophe Clement, although he doesn’t seem to need focus – he generally is up with the leaders. He did run in the Woody Stephens, which was one of the fastest three year old races of the year, and actually only finished 8 lengths behind HOY candidate Bayern. Has been given a short break and has a good workout pattern, seemingly an attempt to give him more bottom. I have a feeling Clement has something up his sleeve with this one.
• 1 Royal Currier – claimed last out for $32K by Michelle Nevin but before that race had been in some minor stakes with mixed success. 3 wins in six starts this year – I like horses that like to finish in front. At 12-1 he’s got a legitimate shot and could make your horizontals and verticals.

Race 7

On the Turf: 8-4-9-10

On the Main: 6-1a-14-12

Race 8

• 1 West Hills Giant – no wins in five starts this year, but he has been with this sort most of the year and actually finished second in this race last November. Has the best figures in the group. Not enamored with the fact he’ll have to come from near the back of the pack, but still looks best overall.
• 3 John’s Island – Another plodder with good figures. He’s been with some good horses, having run fourth in the Amsterdam. He’s had trouble, some of his own making, in his last three. Bumped at the break, wide around the turn. But he has a win in one start at AQU and did run ok in the Mike Lee at this distance. Fast work last out tells me Jerkens might be looking to get the horse a better placement this time.
• 4 Loki’s Vengeance – Hushion has been putting a lot of live horses on the track at AQU. Laid this one off from the end of May to late October where he ran third after being herded by Glickman all the way through the stretch. It was a good first off a layoff and Hushion is 27% with second time off a break. Has a lot of outs in this race.
• 9 Geaux Mets – Came out of the same race as Loki’s Vengeance but it’s usually not a good idea to ignore Jacobson. Has run a lot better figures than his last two indicate. Two back he was pretty much taken out at the start, but really didn’t have an excuse in his last. Got the usual maintenance work and it’s reasonable to expect better today.

Race 9

On the Turf: 4-1-6-8

On the Main: 14-1a-7-13

Race 1

No fun when your choice gets scratched. I still believe the 3 is vulnerable but perhaps less so.

• 4 Cee No More – listed at 15-1 on the ML but I don’t think the crowd will let us get away with that. Of his six lifetime starts three have been on the turf, three on the dirt. He has one second, one third, both on the dirt. He is dropping from $40K down to $20K and his dirt figure is as good as anyone in the race. The connections are less than inspiring, but that’s why you get big odds.
• 3 Mischieviously – the 6-5 ML favorite and while he looks competitive, he doesn’t look unbeatable. Ten starts, one second, one third. He hasn’t improved since being snagged by Linda Rice and his figures are not heads above the others.  He seems to prefer pressing, although there isn’t a lot of real speed here. We’ll let the odds dictate how interesting he is at post time.
• 2 Heading to Boca – Michelle Nevin claimed him back in Jan and rested him until October. His return was nothing to get excited about, but it was on the slop and certainly he would have needed it. He’s likely to improve and we’ll find out if it is enough for him to finish in front.
• 5 Qui C’est Moi – was claimed last out by Abigail Adsit, and she has been effective at improving horses. Another that laid off from May to October, ran into a sloppy track for his return, and tired. He’s got some past figures that would be competitive in this field. Can’t count him out.

Race 2

• 3 Cocktails With Dan – Actually showed a good tracking style in most of his races, but broke out and checked at the break. He never really got into the scrum, but I like that he showed some interest by closing past half the field. He doesn’t quite match up to a couple of others in terms of pace figures but at 10-1 you’re not going to get a horse that sticks out.
• 5 Le Deluge – one race at AQU and one close second place finish. He looks perhaps like he made his move a little prematurely, but he shifts from Chuck Lopez to Cornelio and that should help. Has had consistent figures, although he does seem to have a decided tendency to finish second and third.
• 1 Ausable River – has a lot of early speed. Came out on the turf after a brief respite and didn’t show much on that surface. Should prefer the dirt and has a second at AQU. Will be the one to catch.
• 7 Seeker – the other speed in the race. Bruce Brown claimed him for $16K and hasn’t really improved him, but he is 3 for 3 at AQU. Will probably be overlooked in the betting and isn’t without chances.

Race 3

• 11 Keen’s Cupla – one of the MTO’s, has the best main track figure, although it was on a wet track. Has some good early punch so he should be able to establish a nice tracking position.
• 10 Blue Shark – has a couple of good races on the dirt and competitive figures. Gives him an edge over some of the other turf only starters.
• 9 Talladega – has showed a lot of talent – consistent in his figures. Hard to explain why he hasn’t won by this point, but he has had some wide trips in his last two. We’ll see if he takes to the dirt.
• 1 Forever Utopia – 8 second place finishes in 14 starts and has done well on the dirt. Hard to see him in the win slot, but has good outs for an exotic position.

Race 4

• 1 David Rocks – Almost wired a field at BEL in October. Ok, the fractions weren’t exactly blazing, but these are state bred two year olds. Of the starters, his figure certainly sticks out.
• 8 Global Positioning – First timer for Hushion out of Malibu Moon. Looked like he was being prepped for an early start, but something happened and he took a training break from May to September. He has a good series of works and should be as ready as he needs to be.
• 9 Pierce’s Prize – Puts the blinkers on after showing well in two maidens and a state bred futurity at FL. Gets a big positive jockey switch to Rosario. Consistent figures.
• 4 Possilicious – First timer for Kelly Breen. I like the workout pattern and Breen is 19% with firsters and 21% with two year olds. Chuck Lopez has a lot of experience riding, but he’s not been effective on this circuit, although he’s usually good about getting horses out and in position.

Race 5

• 1 Financial Mogul – One of those cheap claimers with horses who have tons of starts but only one win. Financial Mogul is the X factor. He broke his maiden at first asking, and then went into a series of six graded stakes, including the Woody Stephens, a very fast race with an exceptionally strong field. Obviously this horse has been over his head for about all of his career. He may have head problems, a possibility with horses that have been raced at the wrong level, but the drop to $25K should be telling. Betting based on past class and that fact he has a lot of figures that would dominate the field.
• 4 Brass Pear – Lots of early speed but not as much luck holding on. The 24 starts with only one victory is not inspiring, but in this field he has a shot to be in the exacta. He’ll have to be caught – again.
• 6 Sun Storm – Came out after a year plus off and didn’t run too badly.  In his second start he didn’t have a lot of interest at the start, and it went downhill from there. But, a horse with four starts in this field has a lot of up side. Is making his third start off the layooff and if he’s going to hit it, this might be the race. Fairly low-key connections, but this is not a high class field.

Race 6

• 5 Lunar Tales – Popular at the claim box. Contessa lost him, snagged him back next out, then jumped him the a $50K starter that was taken off the turf. He showed a little speed in that race, but it seems like the slop did him in. That was his only dirt race but I think you can excuse the poor performance  because of the soupy track. Has some decent works on th dirt and gets another chance today.
• 3 Police Camp – Ran on the inner at AQU last winter, then took off until October when he returned on the turf. He won his first race back, returned two weeks later on the yielding turf. In that race he started a little slow, stayed wide the whole time, but still passed a few horses. Never actually been on a fast track so we’ll see how he adapts.
• 7 Bajan Summer – one dirt start in her maiden voyage, not much of a race. Blossomed on the turf, and may have a decided preference for that surface, but has some some nice figures on the turf and if he runs to those he’s a contender here.
• 9 Mental Iceberg – I have no idea what that means, but the horse has outs. He was well enough thought of as a 2 year old to get a start in the Remsen and then in the winter as a 3 year old in the Jerome.  He’s taking a pretty steep drop in class and he has some good races on the inner dirt.

Race 7

• 7 Masons Dream – two starts, two second place finishes. Of the starters, has the top figures. Not likely to get much of a price, but he is the obvious pick.
• 2 Andrew’s Got Zip – broke slow and made the death move, rushing to try to engage the leaders. No surprise he faded in the stretch. We won’t know if he is better than the 7, but with a clean break we should find out today.
• 3 Fear – Went to the front in the Masons Dream race and backed up. We can give him a race to get his feet under him, and he should be the one to catch. I like the workout since the last – he got the rare handily comment.
• 8 Damage Control – Kimmel is 21% with first timers and slightly lower with 2 year olds overall. Been prepping a while for this debut and should be ready.

Race 8

• 15 Touching My Toes – has a lot of speed and almost wired a field at this level last time out. Has very competitive dirt figures and looks solid.
• 16 Nonnie Connie – 23 starts and only two wins, but has been consistently competitive all year. Top dirt figure in the group.
• 3 Graceful Gal – Just broke her maiden on the turf, but ran an impressive time. Curlin is a fine dirt sire and her dirt works are fair. Gets a shot to impress winners today,
• 5 Barrier to Entry – Ran a second in an off the turf race at BEL in the mud. Has been running with cheaper, but ran well against a few of the others in here so I’m willing to give her a chance.

Race 9

• 7 Absolute Beauty – Last three races were on the turf and a muddy track. He’s 0 for 5 on the turf, so those races can be excused. That muddy race was impressive. She went a fair pace early, and didn’t fade that badly in the stretch. I like the early foot and the distance. She’s 6-1 ML and I’d think we’ll get value at post time.
• 4 Zimbabwe Lady – Michelle Nevin claimed the horse in February and gave her a race in March before laying her off until October. She ran well on a sloppy track, has a couple of workouts that should have sharpened her speed, and should improve second off the layoff.
• 3 Literata – Just broke her maiden after dropping from MSW to the $25K claiming level. The figures are competitive, but she may have to improve a little to take this field to the wire. Dilger engages Johnny V to ride and they are  23% combo.
• 9 Pitched – Really underwhelming connections, although the horse has been in the money the last four starts. Has about the same figures as the other contenders and given the low profile trainer and jockey, she should be some value.

I assume they’ll be off the turf again. Everything handicapped for the dirt.

Race 1

• 3 Guggenheim – sometimes 7-5 on the ML looks like it should be 7-5. Fastest numbers in the race, should have no trouble with the distance, and has better tactical speed than it may look like in the PP’s. Seems to have some issues – two months between first and second start, four months between start two and three, but is coming back in less than a month this time, a good sign.
• 2 Veya – eight start maiden had been exclusively on the grass until last out when the race washed off. That affair was as good as he has run, and Ribaudo adds blinkers today. Izzy Rodriguez is still a work in progress, but he has had some decent rides lately.
• 6 Street Babe – don’t get too excited about all those bullets on the workout line. He has been upstate and there aren’t too many horses using the Oklahoma Training Track at SAR at this time of the year. Tough debuting at a mile, but it is only one turn. Rosario probably had his choice and decided to pass on the 3 in favor of this one. Dilger is fair to good with first timers. Really the only unknown in the race, so could be any sort.

Race 2

• 4 Summer House – has shown speed in two races on off tracks. She’s trained by Bill Mott, and historically Mott runners need a race or two to get going. Being a Tiznow, she should relish the distance and the fast dirt. She won’t be 15-1 at post, but may be a decent price.
• 8 Doukas – three starts on the turf, but she is bred well enough for the dirt. RuRod trains and Irad stays for the trip. She has the best figure of the horses left after scratches, and plenty of tactical speed.
• 12 Resilient One – Pletcher trainee has one start at 6 furlongs on the yielding turf, but should adapt to the dirt and the distance just fine. Pletcher is dynamite with second start maidens.
• 11 Tap It Out – Comes out of the same race as the 12 where she was three lengths behind that one. She is well bred to handle the dirt and the distance and improvement is realistic today.

Race 3

• 1 E Z Passer – Threw in a clunker at 7 furlongs last out, but before that had won four in a row and around this class level. Came back with a good workout a week ago. Patrick Quick grabbed her from Diane Balsamo, and he has only been fair first off the claim. Still, has some really competitive figures and if he runs back, he’s got a great shot.
• 5 My Place – nine starts, 3 wins, including one for one at AQU, and 3 second place finishes, include 2 of 2 place finishes at this distance. Good numbers and should thrive at the trip.
• 3 Pure Vida Zen – the track didn’t play to closers on Wednesday, although she does have the ability to press. Runs well on fast or wet dirt. Hasn’t seen this particular trip but no reason to expect she’ll falter at 7.
• 6 Darling Bridezilla – Luckily you don’t have to like the name – just the horse. This the the David Jacobson runner, and he is white hot with 1st off the claim lately. Horse seems to always be trying hard, and with a little improvement is right there with these.

Race 4

• 10 N.F.’s Destiny – has some fast races in his pp’s and speed was doing well on Wednesday. 12 of 17 first or second lifetime. Does seem to have some trouble hanging on in the stretch, but given his lifetime record at six furlongs, you have to include him.
• 8 So Scott – Drops all the way down to $20K after running decently in some state bred $75K races at AQU in the spring. Bruce Levine is only fair off the layoff, but he looks like he has been patient with this horse. Wouldn’t be a total surprise.
• 2 Won Great Classic – 20% lifetime winning percentage. He has 3 wins in 8 starts this year, all at this level and a figure that makes him competitive given the key scratches. Has a pressing style, so should be close enough to get a clear run in the stretch.
• 7 Seek to Destroy – Showed good speed last out after shipping over from FL. Cuts back half a furlong and that should only help. Cannizzo hasn’t been hot at the AQU meet, but usually has his runners ready to go.

Race 5

• 5 Irish Jasper – Overwhelmed his maiden field at Parx going five and a half. Pressed nicely, drew away powerfully, despite having a slow start. Castellano takes the mount and even though it is a step up. the horse looks good enough to be competitive.
• 3 Omagoddonna – Chris Englehart snatched this one off a strong maiden win. Steps her up in price today, but cuts back slightly in distance. Couple of nice works in her favor.
• 6 She’s Marvy – Another that was taken last out, this time by Steve Klesaris. She barely managed to win her maiden, but has a decent figure for this group. Klesaris is 28% first off the claim, although not really known as a two year old specialist.
• 8 Captain Munnings – Dominated a field when dropped from MSW to MCL. Gary Contessa trains, and he is only fair with horses coming off the short rest, but she does have speed and that is an advantage.

Race 6

• 1 Againsome – more seconds and thirds than wins this year, but is definitely at the right class level to move to the winner’s enclosure. Linda Rice has been fair at this meet, and if he runs back to his last he’s a serious contender.
• 7 Sean and Matt – didn’t run horribly in the slop last time, but was much better on a fast surface. This is the third in the sequence since coming off a 10 month break and I’m expecting it to be a good one. Did well at the distance last time he went a mile.
• 8 March Too – Showed good speed in the summer at SAR and BEL, went to KEE a month ago and won comfortably despite being challenged around the track. A mile seems to be the end of his stamina rope. Eddie Kenneally grabbed this one for $40K off the maiden win, steps him up a bit today, but given the positives, he’s a contender.
• 4 Giant Fox – been close with these sorts since breaking his maiden for $20K. Dropped way back last time and made a strong close, although that may not be the best strategy today. Certainly has the numbers to be a factor here.

Race 7

• 10 It’ll Be Fine – started his career on the turf including including a run in the Sunday Silence where he only lost by 3/4 length. Next out was on a muddy KEE track where he finished a close second. Although he ran a clunker on the fast dirt next out, he’s proven at the distance and is well bred for the dirt. Castellano takes the mount and that has to helps.
• 8 Blazing Truth – has shown good speed in five turf starts for Bill Mott. Given that any other potential speed defected, he should inherit the lead here and that makes him dangerous. Actually is nicely bred for the dirt and should have no issue with the distance.
• 6 Havermeyer Street – one race on the dirt at a much lower level, but he did make a nice press and close while wide into the stretch. Actually went off as the favorite in that race so was well thought of. A couple of decent works should have the horse on edge.

Race 8

• 4 Girlaboutown – Been off for two months for NY bred specialist Mike Hushion. Has been working steadily for the return. Was a strong winner at seven furlongs, came back at a mile and faded a bit in the stretch. Still, she’s well bred for the distance, and figures best if she runs back to her SAR race.
• 5 Official – The other winter giant David Jacobson trains this one. Just beat a NW1X last out on a good AQU track. Last two before that were on the turf, but she seems to be one of those horses that runs well on both but prefers dirt. No surprise to see these two battling to the wire. Jacobson’s go to guy Cornelio rides.
• 6 Canal Six – Another last out winner for Tom Morley. Is six of seven in the money lifetime, one for one at AQU, and one for one at the distance. Is every bit as competitive as the first two, and given the pressing style, could be picking up pieces in the stretch.
• 7 Bridgetta – Claimed last out by Schosberg, and immediately jumped up. Schosberg is not good first off the claim, but he does take the blinkers off today and perhaps that helps the horse to relax. Not without a chance but more likely underneath in the exotics.

Race 9

• 13 American Hero – one of the MTO’s. He finished a close second after having some trouble at the start and altering course in the stretch. He’s at the right level and perhaps finally has it figured out.
• 12 Spa City Treasure – has one race on the fast dirt at GP where he finished second. Late bloomer has three second place finishes in six lifetime starts. Nice pressing style. A little dicey in the win slot but the character of the race changed substantially with the scratches and his chances are certainly elevated.
• 14 Party On – Two races on the dirt. The first one was at this level and he settled at the back of the pack, eventually showing interest in the stretch and passing a few horses. Next out he hit a muddy surface and was over his head in a MSW. The drop coupled with dirt experience makes him a contender.
• 2 Tottie Royer – debut race was on the dirt. He had some trouble at the start in that one and didn’t show much. The two races on the grass were helpful in terms of experience. Low profile trainer and a jockey that has had very little success, but has a shot to make the exotics.
• 1a Zabaione – part of the coupling that stayed and one of the MTO’s. Breaking from the far outside in a mile race can’t help, but given he’s the only one that hasn’t started enough to get a good handle on his running ability, it doesn’t make sense to leave him out.

Race 1

• 2 Player to Be Named – Jimmy Soul looks very strong in this field, but the 2 has shown a lot of speed and if the track plays well to front runners she’s got a chance here. At 10-1 she represents the value in the race, especially since she is a filly running against the boys. She has been racing with slightly better and the drop down in price should help.
• 5 Jimmy Soul – despite being seen as a world beater, he was an eight start maiden when the switch to Rudy Rodriguez and a sloppy track woke him up. He does have an impressive number and perhaps will win for fun, but they don’t run races on paper.
• 4 Brother Ralphie – has two races on the inner dirt, one on a fast track one in the mud, and two races on the turf. He won the race on the fast dirt and although he’s been off a while he’s got some useful works and Linda Rice is fair with layoff horses.

Race 2

• 4 Mallory Street – two seconds and a third in three lifetime races. She had been off over a year, returned at BEL and ran a clear second to True Romance. She’s had a work since then and looks good to break her maiden in this race.
• 2 Hijaab – three spaced races indicates some physical issues, but she has shown good early foot and has a couple of nice works since her last.
• 6 Blooper – One race where she broke from the far outside and stayed wide throughout but still managed to find her way to fourth. Michelle Nevin trains and she’s been having a good AQU meet with limited starters.
• 3 Full of Sugar – Hennig has been fair with layoff horses and this one has been off since the spring at GP. Irad takes the ride and that is a plus. If she improves from her previous races she’s a contender.

Race 3    (off the turf)

• 5 Senso – the Jacobson trainee, has some experience on the dirt. Concern is her ability to stay the distance, but this is a very weak field.
• 4 Lil’ Zilla – has some speed. Only has one race on the dirt, and that was on a sloppy BEL track. She made a big move mid-race in that one and flattened in the stretch. Another with a shot.
• 9 Bi Light of Day – six starts on the dirt and three in the money finishes. Is a 17 start maiden, and normally that is a red flag, but given the ambiguity of the race, you can’t discount any horse that has shown some ability on the dirt.

Race 4

• 4 Socialsaul – has three in a row and no reason he won’t make it four. Has a nice pressing running style and Cornelio stays aboard. May not be dominant but looks best.
• 1 Holy Invader – had been off eight months and came out to run a nice third to favorite Socialsaul.  No reason to expect the tables to turn today, but looks second best.
• 8 Chrisandlorisposse – ten starts this year, mostly against better competition. Could pick up some of the pieces.

Race 5

• 7 Saint Finian – won on the BEL mud last out and jumps up slightly in price. Irad stays for the ride. Definitely will depend on how the track is playing. If it is kind to the wider closers, his chances increase.
• 2 Midnight Taboo – was racing well late last year and early this year. Took a vacation and has shown very little in two starts. Takes a big drop today and given he has good tactical speed, may have found a field easy enough to beat.
• 3 Sir Bond – ran a good third last out and Chris Englehart puts the blinkers on today. 2 for 28 record not inspiring, but could get a piece.
• 5 Run for Logistics – should set the early fractions and is in with much cheaper than he’s ever seen. Has the figures to be a factor here.

Race 6

• 10 Inaflash – has been competitive all year. Has two thirds on the AQU dirt and competitive figures.
• 7 Mama Zee – has good tactical speed, although she didn’t look too good in her last when she got taken back by Rudy Rodriguez. It was only a few short months ago she was running in a minor stakes. Might be able to prosper with the price drop.
• 1 Blue Ballerina – although the 1a looked to be the stronger of the two Barrera runners, the 1 has the best speed. She does seem to have developed chronic seconditis – in 30 starts she has three wins and ten seconds. Still, should be competitive in this group.
• 2 Hoopskirt – another suffering from seconditis. Took a year off, came back and never got into her last race. May improve enough to catch a piece.

Race 7

• 5 Freudie Anne – in the battle of the Anne’s, I’ll go with the 5. She broke her maiden in fine style at BEL on the turf, returned in a state-bred stakes and never got into the race. She drops to a claiming race and should have much better prospects today.
• 8 Building Permit – Chad Brown trainee stays for the dirt race after  clobbering a field at BEL in the mud. Can’t argue with Brown’s success and go to guy Castellano gets the ride.
• 1a In Spite of Mama – MTO makes it in. Was beaten soundly by Building Permit and then came out to do the same to a MSW field. Should improve with a drier track.
• 10 Brockolini – Comes of a debut win. Has the number to be first to the wire.

Race 8

• 5 Irish Whisper – Was running well in the spring, took six months off and came back in the Iroquois where he showed a little speed but backed up badly. Obviously needed the race. Have to expect improvement today.
• 9 Storm Swept – Jerkens trainee is making the crucial third start of a layoff and has gotten better. Topped last year’s best number in her last out, and that is a really positive sign.
• 4 Sun and Moon – Good tactical speed but a tendency to hang. Did finally break her maiden two back and didn’t run badly in her first with winners. Perhaps now that’s she’s found what it is like to finish in front she’ll repeat the feat.
• 2 Irish Sweepstakes – hasn’t been with nearly this good, but does have 3 wins in 9 starts lifetime. Rosario takes the mount and that is a positive.

Race 9

• 15 Net Gain – second time starter for Mott and everyone knows his horses improve with experience. Has a great number but will have to find a way to get into the race from the far outside.
• 6 Battle Red – has shown a lot of speed on the turf but has one good race on the dirt. Pletcher trains and Johnny V rides, and that usually leads to paydirt.
• 12 Manchurian – debuted on the dirt at a mile and a sixteenth, a tough job for any firster. He ran a decent third in that one, and should be a factor today.
• 2 High Noon Rider – gets Lasix today for George Weaver. Hasn’t run that badly and if he takes to the dirt and improves he has a big shot.

It doesn’t pay to handicap for the turf too far ahead of time. There can be days of sunshine and somehow the track is still listed as yielding. Absolutely frustrating for handicappers. Some competitive races today, some because all the horses are equally terrible.

Race 1

• 1 Ring Knocker – Raced well at SAR but was no match in the Frizette in the slop. The top three from that race went on to the BC Juvenile fillies. Wonder Gal and Feathered were third and fourth in that race, only a length out. She’ll be back on a fast track and should improve with this group.
• 7 Eloquent Tribute – Two good races at BEL and actually finished ahead of Treasure in her last. One of the players.
• 3 Embellish the Lace – has been working lights out at Fair Hill for Tony Dutrow. He’s fair with first time MSW, The horse was a $320K purchase at last September’s Keeneland sale so there are expectations for the horse. This field is not so strong he can’t dominate it if he meets expectations. Johnny V takes the reins and that is a positive.
• 5 Steely Magnolia – First timer for McLaughlin. Has a quick series of drills for this race, although none longer than four furlongs. Gets Irad and that should help.

Race 2     The Key Cents     3-2-4-5

• 1 Sweetpollypurebred – Is something of an underdog in this event (people of a certain age will understand the joke). Won her maiden at BEL at 6 1/2, wiring the field. The time was good for two year olds. She came back in the Maid of the Mist at a mile and ran evenly around the track. She has numbers to match any of the runners in this race but may have trouble if she tries to go with My Super Nova.
• 2 Alexandrie – Opened her career on the dirt at SAR but was no match that day for Temper Mint Patty. Came back on the turf and wired a seven furlong field. She has the talent and the figure to be a factor in this race.
• 3 My Super Nova – Took her three tries but she was game in beating a maiden field in October on a muddy BEL track. She was only a neck behind the aforementioned Temper Mint Patty in her debut and then got demolished by the same horse, but of course so did everyone else, in the Joseph Gimma. She’s a solid ML favorite, and while I don’t think she is dominant, I think she’s the best in the field.
• 4 The Lewis Dinner – a winner in her fourth maiden start but was competitive in the three races before that. Her figures are about like the others, so a win would be no surprise.
• 5 Sandra – fourth behind the very strong Quezon and Temper Mint Patty in the Maid of the Mist. Looks like she’ll be strong in the mid-distance races. Might be one of the ones closing in the stretch and if there is a torrid duel, she may be the one to benefit.
• 6  Dunn Listening – Doesn’t look like a match for this group.

Race 3

• 6 Energy Spirit – only two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. Came from well out to win his maiden event, then went off as favorite in a mile and a sixteenth race on the BEL turf. He was a little wide in that race and ran evenly around the yielding track. His turf figures are as good as any other horse. Might get some decent odds on him.
• 8 Los Borrachos – 11 starts, 1 win and 4 place finishes, and two of the place finishes are on the turf. Certainly has the talent to take this field, but you have to question his willingness to leave the field in his wake. Has a useful series of works since his last and maybe Mott has him more willing to get to the front of the pack.
• 5 Ironicus – only four starts to this point in his career and once McGaughey moved him to the turf he really blossomed. What I don’t like is the plodding style, although Rosario should be helpful in steering him through the traffic. Has the talent and the figures to get the win.
• 9 Sycamore Lane – broke his maiden last out despite a little bumping at the start. Tried a pressing style but Mott has him coming from well off the pace. Lezcano stays for this ride.

Race 4

• 7 Harlans Six – prospered when dropped from MSW to $40K. That race was in the mud and she ran a strange one. She broke on top, then continued to drop back and made a furious but belated move in the stretch. Frankly, I don’t think she is worth an 8-5 ML, but that race does look like the figure topper for this field.  I’d hope to see a little better strategic race this time.
• 5 Laura’s Patriot – Puts the blinkers on for Gary Gullo and he is 26% with that move. I’d like to see a workout or two in the last two weeks, but he’s ok off the short layoff. She was well backed first time out at SAR and you have to take that as a positive sign.
• 4 Secret Militaire – Dropping from MSW, and in this field that may do the trick. Frankly this is a bit of a stab, mainly because the field is suspect. She didn’t break well, didn’t do anything in the race, but she has come back with a good workout. Anthony Quarterolo has not had a good 2014, and he puts Anthony Cruz on the horse to save a little weight. I’m speculating the horse is better than she showed last out – but I could be wrong.
• 8 Rhody Rendezvous – another bit of a stab. She puts blinkers on today, and actually did show a little bit of speed last out. I don’t think she is a good win prospect, but could make and exacta or trifecta.

Race 5

In the main part of the field, there are 10 horses, each with one win and AVERAGING over 20 starts. One of these horses will unavoidably get the win today. When 1 for 20something horses win, it’s often in a field like this.

Update: 11 Frogman Mel drew in from the AE list and immediately becomes a contender. He’s been in against slightly better and only has 9 starts, not many compared to most in this field. Lately he has been closing and he’ll need a little bit of pace to run at, but his figures are competitive. He is a definite win possibility.

• 7 Double Whammy – it’s as if one field just gets worse than the last. I’m resisting putting the ML favorite Wind of Bosphorus on top, so Double Whammy inherits the nod. David Jacobson trains, and I’m sure he’s stinging from suffering two defeats on Saturday with heavily bet favorites. Double Whammy did beat a $40K maiden field, but never got going against a $50K starter allowance field where he was over his head. He hasn’t broken alertly, and has that come from well out of it style, but if you’re looking for something to bet other than the favorite, and you want more than 8-5 on a Jacobson horse, this looks like the one. At least he doesn’t get the chronic NW2L label the rest of them get.
• 1 Wind of Bosphorus – I said I was resisting putting him on top, not leaving him out entirely. Presses but has trouble closing the deal so Bruce Brown has been dropping him Today is as low as he’s been in quite a while. 20 starts and one official win (he won a $35K maiden and was disqualified from purse money for the ridiculous oxazepam violation). In any case he later won a $35K claimer so he remains eligible for NW2L races. He tops the field figure-wise, but it might be a little risky to take 7-5 on the horse. Still, it is about as weak a field as he’s ever seen.
• 9 Toy Cannon – 18 starts 5 seconds, and a bunch of thirds and fourths. Looks reasonable for an in the money finish.
• 6 Papa Freud – another with 29 starts and multiple in the money (but only one win) finishes. Has one really good race on October 1, and if he runs to that he’s in the mix.

Race 6

• 6 Round – practically broke on his knees at the start, tried to take a right turn and Rosario had to yank him hard left to get back in the race (are you listening Victor Espinoza). he went five wide around the turn and finished two and a half lengths behind the winner. Two horses have come out of that race to win. Based on the lousy trip, he gets a figure upgrade, and he was already the fastest in the field. I’m feeling pretty solid about Round, especially if Liam’s Map is going to get 2-5 action.
• 5 Liam’s Map – goes for Pletcher. He demolished a field at Belmont in September in a snappy 1:34.72, but then oddly went on the shelf until today. He sold for almost 12 times his stud fee and he’s been working on the BEL training track about every six or seven days since mid-October. He’ll be tough to beat at his best and with Round they stand above the other starters.
• 3 Finn’s Quest – has two wins lifetime, putting him ahead of most of the field. He hasn’t been out since the AQU inner dirt meet, but Morely is 1 for 4 with horses returning off a long layoff. Has a win and a second at the mile distance.

Race 7

• 4 Congress Park – come out running at BEL at today’s distance but got caught by Ack Naughty. He followed that up with a good third at 1 1/16 miles. On the plus side, high percentage rider Javier Castellano stays, but on the down side trainer Bruce Brown has had some trouble cracking the winner’s circle at this meet. Still looks good as long as a couple of the AE’s don’t scratch in.
• 10 R Y Squadron – ran well in the mud when his race washed off the turf. Chad Brown is best known as a turf trainer, especially with two year old fillies. She showed a lot of speed last out, and the turf has not been playing well to front runners of late, but with Irad in the saddle she should be able to meter her energy.
• 6 Fourstar Crook – bumped out of the gate, wound up at the back of the pack, but closed steadily through the race. Like it when a horse shows interest after adversity, even if it is just passing tired horses. The other Chad Brown trainee has every reason to improve.
• 1 Not Now Joanie – showed good speed in her debut on a yielding track that was unkind to front runners. Should get a good spot out of the gate, and if Saez distributes her energy better, has a chance to hit the board.

Race 8    The Notebook     5-4-7-1

• 1 Breakin the Fever – Won his maiden in fine fashion on a sloppy BEL track, returned in the Sleepy Hollow, showed speed and faded into oblivion. He looks better suited to the sprint and low profile trainer Debra Breed puts blinkers on today. Not without a chance.
• 2 Regal Minister – Dueled all the way around the track with Saint Joseph who came back to win his MSW next time out. It wasn’t a particularly fast time, but improvement is possible.
• 3 Navy Blue – two races on the dirt, then three on the turf, and then he breaks his maiden on a muddy track. Just don’t think he’s good enough here.
• 4 Tizquick – Ran a good second first time out, beating Breakin the Fever in the process, then came out in the B F Bongard in the BEL mud, got taken out at the start by Bullhead Boy, checking hard and quickly backing out of the race. That race has to be a throw-out considering the trouble and the mud. He broke his maiden next out in pretty fair time, coming from well off the pace to run by the field. Can catch a piece of this one.
• 5 Good Luck Gus – Broke his maiden at SAR in July, then ran three state bred stakes, winning the NY Breeders Futurity at FL. He finished second to the powerful Ostrolenka in the Sleepy Hollow. He’s listed at 8-5 on the ML and that’s about what I would expect him to go off. Can sprint, can route and can run fast.
• 6 Deputy Busterstone – Demolished by Good Luck Gus in the Breeders Futurity before breaking his maiden on a muddy FL track. I still think he is overmatched here.
• 7 Bullhead Boy – Has been running and doing well in the NY stakes. Added blinkers last out and if anything they hurt his performance. Pletcher takes them off today and that improves his chances. He’s had more than his share of trouble at the starting gate – brushed the gate last time, lunged at the start of the Bongard, hit the gate and then Tizquick, but still managing to finish second, and in his maiden had a minor bumping incident. If he races clean, he could wind up best.
• 8 Clockwork –  Broke his maiden in a pedestrian time on a muddy BEL track. No reason to expect he is better than his 15-1 ML.
• 9 One Eyed Ray – Broke his maiden at BEl on the turf, finished second in the Laurel Futurity, and then couldn’t handle the yielding BEL turf in the Awad. Sold for three times the stud fee so he’s well though of, but I’ll have to see him proven against this sort of field on the fast dirt before I can get excited about him.

Race 9

• 5 Pretty Nauty – Ran a diminishing second to E Biscuit despite having a bumping incident around the turn with the horse that finished 5th. The jockey actually had to stand up in the saddle, he was trapped behind horses on the rail and he rallied to get within half a length at the wire. He also was part of an early pace in which the first two horses on the backstretch finished 10th and 11th. It was an impressive race. He finished a close 4th in a mile at SAR at this class level. He fits, he has the figure to win and he looks ready. Trainer Jamie Ness doesn’t bring many in, but when he does they are live and he is a 22% trainer this year with over 600 starts. A lot to like and if he stays 7-2 worth betting.
• 1 With Expression – has set the pace in most of his races, a style that hasn’t been particularly successful at AQU. Still, he has good numbers and has shown some heart in the stretch. Should get a little firmer surface to run on.
• 9 All Over Me – Was rank in winning his maiden at SAR in a state-bred $40K, came back at a mile in a NW1X and essentially took himself out at the start. Ran a much improved race for $25K on a yielding BEL track, running his top number. Looking to turn the tables on Coexist and Rontos New York.
• 3 Coexist – twelve starts, and lately has been running in the money. Low probability for the win, but can catch a piece.

Racing at Aqueduct is maddening. One day you have a pick 6 that pays $1,800, the next day you have indecipherable races. Now, they take races off the turf while the sun is shining and there is little time left in the turf season. But, we rise to the challenges.

Race 1

• 1/1a Wealth to Me/Moonluck – It seems like hardly a day goes by when Jacobson doesn’t have an entry in some race. Wealth to Me just won a $35K Starter Allowance by 13 at BEL, and was no more than an additive length from having won his last five races. The horse has been consistent this year and has the race topping figures. Moonluck has won four of his five races in 2014 against competition as good as what he’ll face today. Since Cornelio is named on both horses there will be a scratch. I’ll assume whichever one stays in is the one Jacobson thinks is best in this field.
• 4 Non Stop – on a two race winning streak, the last on the BEL slop. He’s fine on fast tracks too. I like the pressing style  and while his figures don’t quite match the Jacobson runners, he has the talent and heart to win.
• 5 Street Shark – another with a pressing style. He was claimed by Chris Englehart for $40K and returned at this level, running evenly and finishing third. He’s won 5 of 10 this year and is definitely competitive.

Race 2

It looks to me like someone told trainers the races would be off the turf on Saturday, because this race has more horses without major turf experience than with it. Turns out they were right. I’ll stay with Animal Style even though he was my turf pick but I’ll move M J Plus up to the top.  Abilio moves into the top three, The three MTO’s all have a chance, with Love to Run and Market Blaster sticking out.

• 9 Legendary King – has 8 lifetime wins and 7 are on the turf. He obviously didn’t care for the BEL slop last out although he did show a little speed in that race. Before that he only finished a length behind open $25K claimers, and had two wins at Suffolk on the turf before that. Has a good tracking style and is listed at 8-1 on ML.
• 4 Animal Style – I wish I had been paying attention to Parx on November 2 because one of the great angles in racing is to back a horse coming back fairly quickly after being vanned off in his previous race. In any case, that race made him eligible for this $12,500 starter since before that he hadn’t raced for less than $25K. This looks to me like an attempt to steal a race and the 12-1 ML is juicy. He has a place and a show at this distance and is 3 of 10 on the turf.
• 2 MJ Plus – has a lot of fast figures – on the dirt. He has run five times on the turf and has only won once. He’s not without a shot, but at 2- 1 I can look elsewhere for the win.
• 7 Abilio – in great condition having won his last two races on the dirt at a mile. Looks very tough now that the race is off the turf.

Race 3

• 9 B.B.’s Remington – improved substantially when dropped to $40K, although that was on the slop. Is the best of the horses that have started. Contessa conditioning is a plus.
• 6 The Fixer – Never got into his first race on the slop. Drops from MSW to $40K claimers and the track should be much firmer today. He was ovbviously well meant first out at 3-1 odds. Today might be his day.
• 7 Golden Boy – Linda Rice doesn’t have a great record with first timers, but she is effective with two year olds. He has a useful series of works for this debut.
• 1 Can’tcatchjack – total clunker on the slop in his debut race. He wasn’t well backed in that event, but Albertrani had been doing better with young two year olds late at SAR and at BEL. The works since his debut haven’t sparkled, but they should give him a needed edge.

Race 4

• 1/1a Bobby V/Patriot’s Voyage – Again both are trained by Jacobson and both have Cornelio named to ride. Patriot’s Voyage was trained by Baffert and you can see in the workouts the typical fast works Baffert is known for, then all of a sudden he starts working like a plow horse and Jacobson is called in to work his magic. He’s tons faster on his best day, but it’s really hard to back the horse. Bobby V on the other hand was claimed last out by Jacobson, and he is unworldy with 1st off the claim. If he goes he will likely be the favorite and it would be hard  not to back him.
• 11 Summit County – never a good sign that he has more thirds than firsts but he’s been with better in the not too distant past. Puts blinkers on and I’m surprised they haven’t tried them before. Has good enough figures to compete here.
• 7 Perfect Trippi – Dropped over to MTH in search of a win at what looks like a slightly lower price but is essentially just the same bottom level claimers he’s up against today. Carlos Martin is good with medium layoff horses and at 15-1 I’ll include him in exotics.
• 5 Tummel – has a lot of starts this year with mixed success. I like the pressing style and he has chances in a field this weak.

Race 5

• 10 Changewilldoyagood – two starts at a mile, one win on a good turf one on the yielding turf. He ran better than looked on the yielding track considering he ran wide around the track. He’s come back with one decent workout. Has a good running style and a  lot of upside.
• 3 Macagone – has a lot of early foot, but has a tendency to not finish as strongly. Still, he has strong figures and that can’t be discounted.
• 1 Runaway Posse – took until his fourth start to break his maiden, but the move to the turf brought out the best in him and now that he’s figured it out he may duplicate the effort. This field is not so strong he can’t win.
• 5 Iced Over – has been at the level a while and in 8 starts has five third place finishes. May be more useful in the verticals than the horizontals.

Race 6

It was hard to get down to four contenders. I struggled with including the Gary Contessa first timer, Call Daddy is dropping from MSW to MCL and that can signal big improvement, and Bert Stone ran a good race at KEE, although it was for $30K and Gullo is not notable with horses first starting for him. In fact, of the eight starters, each had positives and negatives. In any case, I settled on

• 7 Overthespeedlimit – Came out at $40K and pretty much nothing went his way. Track was muddy, he was wide throughout, and still managed a close second. A series of five workouts since that race, and the last one was impressive. Dutrow is 28% with second start maidens.
• 3 Astron – Ran a decent race in a $75K MCL then went into a MSW where he hit the gate and never got into the race. Has had a lot of trouble getting out of the gate and I have to believe Gullo has used the month and a half off to fix that problem. Certainly has the talent to compete and if he can get out, he has big chances.
• 6 Whateveryouwant – has shown a lot of early foot but no courage in the stretch. Switches to the bug boy today and maybe that will overcome his lack of stamina. Has the overall best figures.
• 4 It’s Perfect Too – but the blinkers on last trip and it almost got him to the wire first. He jumps up today so we’ll see if the shades keep him going or if he is over his head.

Race 7   The Red Smith   Grade 3    4-3-1-8

• 1 Red Rifle – all sorts of speed but not an uncontrollable need-to-lead type. He ran a nice race in the Hill Prince as a three year old, and then Pletcher moved him to the dirt where he ran creditably if not remarkably. He then put him back on the turf and he blossomed, winning the Yankee Affair and finishing second three other times, including the Grade 3 Sycamore at KEE. I think he gets a nod because of his speed and ability to stay the distance. Jockey switch from Johnny V to Bravo is of concern.
• 2 Margano – doesn’t appear to have the class to get involved in this one.
• 3 Dynamic Sky – Has been running graded events in his last five, and although he hasn’t won, he’s had two seconds and two thirds. In his last, the Candian International, he finished two lengths behind likely favorite Big Blue Kitten. He’s for real and Mark Casse is one of the best, if not underrated, conditioners around.
• 4 Big Blue Kitten – the stickout class of the field, but has been beatable this year, with only a restricted stakes in the win column. He is a six year old and might be slowing down, but if anyone can get the best out of him, it would be Chad Brown. He’s always there at the end, but he’ll need a top effort to beat this field. Still the top choice for me.
• 5 Micromanage – ran third in the Bowl Game to North Slope, a horse that had been spending all his time in $62K OC races. He ran a big one for his first race on the green, but will have to contend with Red Rifle if he decides to run to the front again. Marginal at best for me.
• 6 St Albans Boy – Also comes out of the Bowl Game where he finished behind the 5. He can certainly go the distance, but he looks ambitiously placed to me.
• 7 Calvados – I’ve had Calvados – it’s not exactly to my taste but I get the appeal (no pun intended). Pretty much like the horse in this race. He only has two starts in America, but improved in the Laurel Turf Cup. Manchurian High is no Big Blue Kitten and I think if he sneaks in it is for a lesser award.
• 8 Legendary – Five year old gelding ran his best race of the year in the Grade 2 Knickerbocker last time out. He beat Up With the Birds, the fourth place finisher in the Arlington Million. His race in the Lure was not bad, and there is no shame in getting beat by Big Blue Kitten. He has to be in the mix for me.
• 9 Can’thelpbelieving – a young horse, perhaps improving, but I think he has a way to go before catching up with this field.
• 10 Unitarian – won the Grade 2 Elkhorn at KEE. Likes to run from far back, so he’ll need the right pace up front. I’m not enamored with the style so I’ll take my chances leaving him out.
• 11 Manighar – was a good one last year but it seems like age may be catching up with him. Only raced once this year in the Fort Marcy in May and backed out of the race after 3/4. I can understand why people might back him, but there are too many others that you don’t have to guess about in this race.

Race 8

• 3 Leroy Jr. – good tactical speed and demolished a field last time he raced at AQU. Chad Brown trains and although Javier is not riding here, Manny Franco has been doing a good job. Recent work should have him sharp.
• 6 Captain Toews – has been a disappointment most of the year despite looking good in a few fields. This field is weak enough that he could pick up one of the bigger checks.
• 4 Man of Mystery – Poor trainer and Laurel jockey Sheldon Russell comes in to ride. Showed good speed in the slop last out when winning a state-bred MSW. Sometimes a horse can overcome his trainer and this looks like one that might. Gotta like the Fair Hill workouts.
• 5 Mighty Zealous – Broke his maiden in his fourth start in rather impressive fashion, then was given a five month rest. Has fair workouts for his return. Linda Rice runners seem to need a race off the layoff, but have to like late improving three year olds.

Race 9

• 5 Broken Border – Broke from the far outside and stayed wide throughout, still getting up for the place. Has a much better spot today, although the switch from Lezcano to Izzy Rodriguez is a negative.
• 3 Stolen Victory – race well at a mile in an off the turf affair two weeks ago. Tracked a little closer that day and has a couple of speed drills to sharpen the edge. Could be the one if Broken Border doesn’t favor the dirt.
• 10 Kool Charlie – first timer for Dilger is bred better for the dirt than the turf, and Tale of the Cat is a good one for siring precocious runners. Dilger is red hot at AQU with four wins and two seconds in nice starts. Gets Johnny V for the debut. Useful if not outstanding series of works.
• 2 Cosmic Tale – showed lots of speed on the turf and didn’t run that badly on the dirt at SAR this summer. Speed is always dangerous so she gets a nod here.

The main track is listed as good today with the turf yielding and three races taken off the turf. I’ll try to correct the best I can.

Race 1

All three horses I selected have good wet track ratings. No change in this race.

• 1 Ozone – Drops from MSW down to $75K, a move we’ll see more and more as the year winds down and trainers decide which of their horses have real potential as three year olds. This one has been off since July when she lost to one of the good two year old fillies, Cavorting. She’s been working well for a month now and Contessa is fair with long layoff horses. Have to respect this one.
• 3 Diannestillworks – Came out at SAR in what turned out to be a not very productive maiden race and then was thrashed by Feathered who ran fourth by a length in the BC Juv Fillies. She had trouble in that race but it would be a stretch to try to make a case for her since Feathered won by almost 10. She’s another dropping out of MSW, has one of the better AQU winter trainers in RuRod, and has some average works for the return. She’s listed 9-5 on the ML and I’m not sure she’s that good.
• 4 Kisses for Romeo – was in the same MSW that Dianestillworks came out in, and ran a little closer to the pace. Schettino is fair with layoff horses. Longer series of works than the other two and perhaps has a pace advantage today.

Race 2

The only turf race left on the grass. The 2 can be downgraded some on the yielding track. No idea if the turf will be tiring but if it is that may compromise the 3. It may upgrade the 6 Daylight Ride who has run well on a yielding track previously. 

• 2 Orion Moon – finished a short neck behind Waterway Run in the Beaugay in May, came back in July in the Perfect Stranger, technically set the pace, and backed up in the stretch on a yielding track. She seems to prefer a firmer surface and should get that today. Has fired fresh on a few occasions so no worry there.
• 3 Party Now – lightly raced three year old hasn’t run a bad race this year, but has only been in races with three year olds. McGaughey is ambitious placing the horse in this spot but he’s good with layoff runners. Another that likes to run toward the front and will much prefer the mile.
• 5 Tuttipaesi – been off a year and a half, but before that ran in two graded events. Switched to the Mott barn for this run and he is fair with layoff horses. Could be the X factor in here.

Race 3

Yep. Just checked and it’s still a horrible field.

• 3 Distant Thoughts – after watching the races the past couple of days, I’m not sure any horse deserves to be 3-5, and definitely not this one. It’s a weak field, but this is a horse that took six starts to break his maiden and that was against bottom level $25K claimers. Still, he’s got some tactical speed and the best last race figure at today’s distance, and a useful if unspectacular workout since his last race.
• 8 Volatile Markets – Chris Englehart brings this one from FL where he last raced in July. 16 starts and only a maiden victory, but he generally runs in the vicinity of the winner. Perhaps the time off will do him good. He has a couple of nice workouts to boot.
• 2 Thorin – is another horse inching toward professional NW2L status. Trainer picked him up for $5K at MTH, jumped up to $35K and caught a sloppy AQU track, then bombed at Parx in a $10K claiming event. He’s had a lot of trouble getting out of the gate alertly, but if he does he has a shot here.

Race 4

Now off the turf. No reason to change picks. Perhaps the 5 gets an upgrade today.

• 7 Teresas Candyrose – Jimmy Jerkens sends her out for her first start since January at GP. She actually won her maiden race at a mile only to be disqualified from purse money. She switched barns to Steve Hobby for a run at CD in a MSW event on the dirt and finished a middling 5th. Then she went back to the Jerkens barn in a $75K MCL, never got out of the gate and raced wide all the way around but still managed third. She’s got a nice series of workouts for the return and actually has as fast a figure as anyone in the race. Another that has to be a little suspect at 5-2 ML but still looks good in this field.
• 5 Rachel’s Temper – ten start maiden who was in at this price last out but the race washed off the grass. She ran a nice second in that race, running slightly faster than she’s been on the grass. Still her grass numbers are competitive and she’s a good in the money prospect.
• 8 Shine On Erin – has only one start in a state bred $40K MCL. It was a slow race, but given she stumbled at the start and was ridiculously wide coming into the stretch. She was flattered when the winner of that race, Miss Motivation, came back to win her next start. She’s got three works since that one, so she should be about as sharp as she’s going to get.
• 1 Time for Harlan – Didn’t care for the slop in an off the turf event last out and was trounced in a $65K MCL the race before that. At this claiming price and distance she finished a close third in June. She’s at the right level and has prospects today.

Race 5

• 3 Groomedforvictory – won on a muddy track  last out at AQU with state bred OC $40. He’s 6 of 13 at AQU and 12 of 26 at this distance. Horse has only been off a week but Jacobson is good with the quick turnaround. Lots of positives but he is a nine year old and he is racing on short rest. Will probably go favorite but has some competition.
• 6 Joe Mooch – Not a great win percentage but he was taken last out by Linda Rice who is 17% first off the claim. In fact, he’s been taken his last three starts where he has a win, place and fourth. Last race was a fast one and he has good prospects here.
• 1 Fiona’s Hero – Raced two weeks ago at AQU and was taken by Contessa out of that race. Has a lot of tactical speed and he’ll probably have to use it from the rail. Had been with better over the summer and should fit well here.
• 4 Saturday Appeal – only 3 wins in 32 starts, but 8 place finishes. Good probability of an in the money finish.

Race 6

Off the turf. Two of my selections scratched and the MTO 1 Pleiadian made it in. He definitely has to be included in the mix. 3 of 4 on a wet track, just missed at AQU last out, running to the front and only losing by half a length. He hasn’t been this far before, and he’s not well bred for longer races, but if he can meter his speed he has outs. 3 Bedouin Now has spent most of his career on the dirt so he should move up today, plus he has some mile and an eighth races.

• 2 Lay It Down – a bit of a guru pick here. Hasn’t raced at the distance, but tries hard every race. Has good speed and may be able to use it to his advantage in this race – no other horse can really match him up front. Should be good odds at post.
• 8 Shetan – Has been with much better in the recent past. Only has four starts this year but has a win. Doesn’t seem to be a distance specialist, but has pretty good breeding for the longer trips. The main danger.
• 7 Global Asset – Comes in from LRL and has been racing with these types. Has one distance race and ran fairly evenly around the track in that one. Doesn’t have a win this year so he’s suspect in that regard, but this is a weak field and if he’s going to jump up this might be the race.
• 4 Arc Above – got caught in an off the turf event last out but has been specializing in distance races on the turf. High in the money percentage, but has trouble hitting the win position.

Race 7

None of the horses has outstanding wet track ratings so we’ll just leave things as they are.

• 7 Scattered Dreams – four starts with two seconds and a third. Last race figure was faster than anything else in here. Klesaris is good with sprint to route, although his juveniles in this category have had a hard time hitting the win slot. In his race two back where Klesaris claimed him there were four on the line and he was unlucky not to win. I like the running style and the fact that he moved back to MSW.
• 6 Beyond the Green – caught a muddy track for his debut. He was wide in that race and made his move too late. He has a very nice workout from four days ago and he’s well bred for a mile. Have to expect improvement today.
• 1 Humboldt and Frost – Different riders named for him and his entry mate so we might get a strong two for one. He’s been the distance on a muddy track and ran second all the way around. Has excellent chances today.
• 8 Arctic King – Finished half a length behind Humboldt in his last and has a good workout in prep for this one. Started out in the MCL ranks and while he didn’t disgrace himself in the MSW, he might have a tougher time with this group.

Race 8

All my selections scratched leaving a five horse field. Golden Itiz and Frazil get in off the MTO list. Golden Itiz prefers shorter routes, but has a superior wet track rating. Jumps up quite a bit for this one but is not without chances. Frazil has been sprinting lately but has been successful at a mile and an eighth. Is 5 of 7 in the money on wet tracks.In the horizontals I may hit the all button in this race.

• 3 Barrel of Love – Rudy Rodriguez claimed the horse last out and brings him back at the same level just not claim eligible. Had been competitive with sate bred open allowance horses and didn’t run badly in the West Point to some of the best NY turf horses. Is having a good year with 6 of 8 in the money.
• 6 Arctic North – specializes in longer distance races and has been competitive at this level all year. Won his last against two of the others in this spot and no reason not to expect him to run well today.
• 1 Joes Blazing Aaron – Went to the front in his last two mile and a quarter races; held on in one, finished second in the other. He’s capable, expecially considering there isn’t a lot of pace in the race.
• 11 Red Vine – Been racing long all year and seems to always be in competition with Joes Blazing Aaron and Arctic North. Seems to be more in the money than win.

Race 9

Lots of horses with good wet track ratings and Boss Daddy’s is superior. Could move Road to Rockport up. 

• 3 Read the Mirage – obviously didn’t take to the turf last out. Was taken by Thomas Morely and returns on the right surface at the right distance. Good steady series of works for his return. A little bothersome all his success has been on the inner dirt, but still has to be given respect here.
• 1 Scully – was demolished first out by Declassify who went on to become a Grade 1 winner. That was 19 months ago and you have to wonder what he’s been doing since then. Switches to Patrick Reynolds who has given him fair workouts for his return. Note that he had been working at Westfield Farm in Florida back in March and all of a sudden stopped. Likely a horse that had a major physical issue, so be warned he could be any sort.
• 4 Boss Daddy – Opened a clear lead in the stretch against $20K MCL and got caught, not necessarily the best sign, but he does cut back in distance a half furlong and that may do the trick. The track was sloppy in his last and perhaps that is what put the zoom in his performance, and if it stays wet today it seems like it would only help. Abby Adsit trains and that is a plus, but a very ambiguous choice here.
• 8 Road to Rockport – hasn’t caught a fast track in two starts this year. Ran ok in the slop at BEL and then showed speed in a turf sprint. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is in his favor. You have to give him a chance on a fast strip so definitely should be in the verticals and horizontals.

The first half of the card looks pretty chalky, but the second half looks more interesting.

Race 1

• 1 Big Lute – good tactical speed, top figure in the race and Jacobson trains. He’s hitting at an other-worldly 40% at the AQU meet. Although he has an entrymate entered in Artemus Paperboy, there doesn’t seem to be a need for Jacobson to run that horse back in five days, so he is the likely scratch. He may be
• 5 Mop Head – ran on the AQU dirt 13 days ago after running his last six on the turf and did just fine. Claimed two back by Danny Gargan and he enters him at the price at which he grabbed him.
• 4 Harlan’s Hello – was well thought of as a three year old in 2011, running in the Dwyer and the Pegasus. After the Dwyer he disappeared until June of his year, ran three races and then dropped out of sight again in July. He comes back with a new trainer, Leslie Hinds, one of the worst trainers on the grounds and the current conditioner of the infamous Eva Lil. It’s hard to imagine Hinds improving the horse, but given the short field it’s possible he’ll finish in the money.

Race 2

• 1 Melville – isn’t going to be overlooked by many. In his last he lost contact with the field and made a huge sustained move around the turn, actually taking the lead in the stretch. This is typically what I refer to as “overused information.” The pace in that race was killing and no horse up toward the front early had any finish left. This is not to say Melville didn’t run a good race – he did – but he certainly benefitted from a speed duel between his stablemate Coordinate and Sherifco, who wound up last and second last. On the other hand three horses have already come out of that race to win. He’ll be bet and he may be best.
• 5 Idiosyncratic – Lost to one of the horses that came out of the Melville race in his last out. Thewayyouare is not noted at a turf sire – in fact this horse has a terrible turf rating.  Still, he’s run twice on the lawn and has done ok both times. It doesn’t hurt that Chad Brown is conditioning.
• 3 Hoon – Irish bred debuted in America at CD and ran a good second. I like that the horse got into the race from an outside post, and really lost all the ground he could around both turns. Tried closing on the winner but couldn’t get there. He should improve in his second American start today.
• 10 T Sizzle – Looked good at SAR this summer, went to Laurel to break his maiden and couldn’t get it done. Adds blinkers today and perhaps that focuses him enough to make it home first.

Race 3

• 1 Speedboat Sally – Drops from OC $25K to open $16K claimers. Seven year old mare shows no signs of slowing down, with 3 wins in 8 starts this year. Her task is a little tougher today considering she has spent most of her time at Parx, but she has the figures to top this field.
• 2 In Kelly’s Defense – Came from the midwest, set the pace in a $32K claimer in September but faded badly. Was taken out of that race by RuRod and that is the primary reason she’s one of the picks here. Rodriguez has a 29% hit rate first off the claim and I have a feeling he was correcting whatever problems he saw after snagging the horse. A return to form makes this one tough.
• 3 Darnley Bay – Another one who went to Pennsylvania in search of a win but came back empty handed. Takes a serious drop in price, although she’s really done her best running with low level claimers. Cannizzo is overdue.
• 4 Midnightpositano – has a lot of natural speed and may be the one to catch here. Races against this sort of group have been fair, but I’d like to have seen a better finish. Depends on the track, but not totally outless.

Race 4

• 5 Island Candy – Finished second in a mile race washed off the turf and was claimed out of that one by Michelle Nevin. Nevin is a solid 26% with first off the claim. Has a win and a second at AQU and two seconds at the distance. I’d call her a good favorite, but certainly not untouchable.
• 6 Ocean Boulevard – Presser/closer style should work well in this race. Won at a mile in a $25K NW2L, and didn’t run horribly in an open $25K claimer and a $25K NW3 in the slop last two, and this field is not the toughest she’s faced. She was well enough thought of as a two year old to start in a Grade 2. Good chance here.
• 4 Casual Elegance – ran a good one on the AQU slop but is trained by one of the worst trainers on the grounds, David J. Smith. I debated a long time before including her in the mix. Smith after all was the trainer who got Eva Lil off to a career as a chronic loser. Despite Smith she seems to have speed and has occasionally held it through the stretch. Still playing her with a grain of salt.
• 9 Kiss Cat – Beat Casual Elegance finishing second in that sloppy race at Aqueduct where the 4 finished third. Not much on a fast track, but could be part of the exotics.

Race 5

• 6 Starship Pleasant – Jason Servis runner has good tactical speed, and has a lot of seconds and thirds but only one win this year. Probably at the right level to look for a win. Sporadic works for the return off a two month layoff. One second on the AQU turf.
• 2 Thundering Gale – looking for her third win in a row for Chad Brown. He’s a genius with turf fillies and should have a rail spot early.
• 7 My One and Only – Low profile connections and hasn’t won a race this year, but has been with this sort most of the year. Don’t prefer the plodding style but she should be closing at the end. More likely part of the exotics.
• 10 Issheit – Front running sort jumps up the class ladder. Speed is always dangerous although Formulator tells us that only one horse has wired a field. Still, in the money is a real possibility,

Race 6

• 3 Genre- was wide in her debut on the slop at BEL at today’s distance but closed very well to finish second. Pletcher trains so the 8-1 odds from her debut are a distant memory. Will be bet heavily and may deserve odds on status.
• 8 Fair Point – third start and puts the blinkers on for McGaughey. Should appreciate the mile distance. There are actually a cadre of horses that all have run similar figures, so I’m looking for separators and the blinkers fit the bill.
• 2 My Sweet Girl – was far outside on a sloppy BEL track in the same race as Genre. Barclay Tagg has been starting live horses at AQU. Don’t expect her to turn the tables on Genre, but should run a good one.
• 7 Bonnet Plume – no reason she should be 10-1 on the ML. Showed a little bit of tracking speed but not much finish. Should have gotten a lot out of the race and improvement is not unreasonable.

Race 7

• 5 Premium – Seems to prefer an easy pace at longer distances but does show a win at a mile. McLaughlin trainee showed a lot more speed with the addition of Lasix. She should be in the mix at the end.
• 8 Little Journey – three graded races in a row before dropping into an OC $62K and finishing a length and a half behind Premium. Chad Brown usually finds a way to place his horses right and get them to win.
• 1 Cloture – Broke her maiden in he eighth start but came back two after that to win her NW1X. Seems like McGaughey has her on the right track . One concern – her two wins were at a mile and a quarter. Still, with the right pace and the right ride she has a reasonable chance.
• 3 Tizallheart – 18 starts, one win, 7 seconds. Looks like a horse with a good chance of finishing in the money.

Race 8

• 7 Seal Team Four – won a race at a mile at CD in May where he was claimed by Tony Dutrow. He came back in a six furlong sprint three weeks ago but backed up in the stretch. Dutrow adds Lasix today and hopefully that keeps the horse from fading. He has plenty of speed and the last race should do him a world of good.
• 2 Spider Roll – listed as the 4-5 ML favorite after drubbing a state-bred MSW field on a muddy AQU track 12 days ago. The final time was not spectacular, but given the mucky track a better time can be expected today. Whether or not he’s worth odds on is something we’ll find out today.
• 4 Myrlanski – Horse hadn’t been seen since April 2012 when he showed up in a state-bred NW1X at seven furlongs on the turf a month ago. Scott Phillip is the trainer and his record is very poor, but the horse could improve enough to grab a minor piece.
• 3 Adams Note – broke his maiden in his second start and has been stuck at NW1X since. Seems to run evenly and makes his first start on the dirt since his debut race. Has the feel of a trainer looking for something to change the mojo. We’ll see if it works.

Race 9

• 2 Simple Love – Cuts her claiming price in half in search of a win. Has the best figures in the field and a nice pressing style. Clement is dynamite with sprint to route.
• 1 Wine Burglar – had a troubled start, winding up at the back of the pack, but made a furious move to get within a length of the leader, ultimately losing the race by two. Has been racing well for a while now and can improve today.
• 9 Chow Fun – beat a better field at BEL in June then threw in two mediocre races. Bruce Levine drops her substantially in claiming price in search of a win and she should be closing well in the stretch. Not without chances.
• 3 Lakeview Lady – is the speed of the race and is at the proper level. Exotic possibilities.

I’m assuming fast and firm today.

Race 1

• 1 Imposing Figure – Only one race at SAR where he battled up front early while wide and gradually weakened. Since that race the horse has changed hands to David Jacobson who has only given him one workout and that was two weeks ago. Still, Jacobson is magic with horses first time under his care and he really doesn’t have a tough field to beat here.
• 7 Ziggy Moondust – looks like the pacesetter in here. Ran into two off tracks in his last two races, and in his debut was on the turf, so we can’t be certain how he’ll handle a fast dirt. Still, has an impressive figure off the wet track races and will have to be caught.
• 4 Rock On Chacho – high percentage trainer at FL hasn’t had the same sort of success downstate. The FL works are good, although they don’t really show the trainer trying to inject some speed into the horse. Perhaps he’s prepping for something a little longer, but no reason to doubt he’ll be trying hard today.
• 2 Shinnecock Bay – eight starts and a couple of in the money finishes. Has shown speed on the turf and didn’t run badly on the fast dirt. Less up side than the top two, but not totally outless.

Race 2

• 8 Day Six – has the best figures, although he’s been racing longer distances. Has showed an inclination to run to the front and has good stretch courage. Probably had a very minor injury after the September 14 race, laid off three weeks and has had regular works over the last month. Not sure I like the drop from MSW, and the 5-2 ML odds are not particularly attractive, but it’s possible they are hungry for a win. Not a pushover field but he looks best.
• 4 Mambo At the Gym – had been running in MSW and dropped into a $62,500 claimer where he finished second behind behind next out winner Are We Not Men and a length in front of Dividend who also goes today. He went back to MSW on a good BEL turf and ran somewhat evenly. Two horses have already won out of that MCL and the drop to $40K should make a big difference.
• 7 Dividend – third behind the aforementioned 4 last out. In the race before that he was coming on the eventual winner Big Boss Man but missed by a nose. In that race he actually beat Are We Not Men by almost two lengths, but didn’t have the same luck on the good turf. Seems, then, to prefer the firmer turf and we can expect a top effort today.
• 3 Collinito only has three races. He won his second start at GP, but was DQ’d to second in what I could only describe as a marginal call. If the GP stewards were working at SA for the Breeder’s Cup Classic, no doubt they’d have DQ’d the top two. Collinito sprinted to a long early lead, and drifted slightly in the stretch, never making contact but “bothering” the second place horse. After the incident the second place horse started a rally and came within a neck of the victory, and I think that rally (not unexpected considering Collinito had been on fast fractions and had to be tiring) induced the stewards to assume he just might have lost a placing. Apparently the stewards at GP have a slightly clearer crystal ball than those at  SA, because I thought it could have been 50-50 chalked up to good race riding. In any case, after an 8 month layoff he didn’t get the front and ran pretty much evenly around the track. I know I put him in the fourth spot here, but he would be no surprise if he sprinted out on an AQU turf that has been very kind to front runners and won again.
• 3 Relentless Ride – let’s face it; a horse that finishes in the money 12 of 14 races seems like a high probability to finish in the money. Not expecting a win, but it would be hard to leave him out of the exotics.

Race 3

• 2 Glickman – Jacobson scratched him out of a spot where he had good win prospects last weekend to place him here. Glickman was a middling $20K claimer until Jacobson got a hold of him and turned him into a speedball. He looks like the front runner here and will have to be caught.
• 1 Cherokee Artist – is the other Jacobson horse and the one he owns. I know that racing rules allow horses with the same trainer but different owners to run uncoupled, but it seems a little funky when one of the horses is also owned by the trainer. In any case, he was top notch at some lesser tracks and didn’t run horribly at Saratoga. If he runs back to his earlier form he’s a strong contender.
• 5 Abra – the other speed horse; is 2 of 3 at AQU. Will have his hands full with Glickman and may set the race up for Cherokee Artist.

Race 4

• 6 Call Wil – should claim favoritism. Won in early October in a NW2L on a yielding BEL turf. Returned in an off the turf race on a sloppy track and didn’t run badly. Pressing style should give him a good striking spot.
• 11 George Cross – makes it in from the AE list. Five straight second place finishes and it looks like that might be the best he can hope for today.
• 9 Spirit of Peace – plenty of speed and held it for a win at MED in October. May be a little over his head here, but the AQU lawn has been kind to front runners so he has some outs.
• 1 Sonnyandpally – dropped down to beat a $25K NW2L field in September. Has a lot of starts for only two wins but does have his share of in the money finishes,

Race 5

• 4 Knockher Off – good speed and has a liking for the AQU dirt. Was on two wet tracks that were taken off the turf in his last two races and those were his first two in ten months. Didn’t run badly and Jimmy Jerkens decided to keep him on the dirt. Third off the layoff should be the best effort.
• 2 Big Guy Ian – Showed a lot of speed in the Amsterdam, came back in a NW1X and faded badly. Laid off two months and came back out in the mud and actually held as well as he had since he broke his maiden. Another where improvement should be expected.
• 1 Dyker Beach – 23 starts and 2 wins but 10 seconds. Lots of talent, just seems to hang. Useful in the exotics.
• 5 Billy the Bull – Came out in the slop and won at 15-1. Lots of speed, is good at the distance, and is ok on a fast track.

Race 6

• 5 Compliance Officer – in a tough, competitive race, Compliance Officer gets the nod. He is 2 of 4 on the AQU turf, and is good at the distance. He drops from OC $62K into this spot and has far and away the best figures. He has had some trouble finding the winners enclosure so there is always a little doubt, but he’ll be low odds and seems best.
• 10 Blue Pigeon – Nothing but in the money finishes in his last five, including a win on the yielding BEL turf last out. Probably not dropping significantly in price but fits with this group. Like the running style and Irad stays for Clement. Wouldn’t be a surprise.
• 2 Jonrah – In a move you don’t see too often Chad Brown claimed the horse last out for $40K and wheels him back in this OC $40K and offers him for the same price. I’m not sure what that means – is he just looking to grab a purse or is he signalling it wasn’t a great move to grab the horse? In any case the horse ran well in this class level last time and has some good figures in his past performance.
• 11 I Got Id – wondering what Imbriale does with this name. Will it be I-D or id? Horse has only 4 starts with two wins and a place. Nothing I like better than to find a three year old with prospects to improve. He may have some physical issues, but he’s had a nice set of works for this return and I’ll give him a reasonable chance to jump up.

Race 7

• 7 Little Gidding – had some good races at SAR and BEL during the summer but had trouble staying in front all the way to the wire at 6 1/2. Cut back to 6 furlongs on a good Laurel track with the same result. Drops in price for RuRod and gets Irad for the ride. Perhaps a bit chancy but has speed and fits the group.
• 4 Da Wildcat Girl – Two race win streak on the line. Grabbed by Scott Schwartz last time out for $25K and he drops her a level today. Has been consistent all year and should have no problem with the cut back to 6 furlongs.
• 6 Bridget Maloney – Has had some success at AQU and at the distance. A lot of races this year. Was claimed two back by Peter Chris and he got her to run second with $20K state-breds. Not without a chance.
• 3 Foxbeau – has been off since March for new trainer Gary Gullo. Comes down by half from his last claiming price. Is 1 for 1 on the AQU dirt and has two wins in five attempts  at the distance. Ran well in his debut start so perhaps she’ll come running today.

Race 8

• 1a Goodtolook – Contessa scratched Pretension to leave this one in despite Pretension looking like the stronger of the two. Has shown lots of speed at route distances since the claim and tries sprinting today. Gotta trust Contessa on this one.
• 2 Smokem’s Charm – ships in from FL for Charlton Baker. Works well in the morning upstate and has been with some of the better state-breds at FL. At 15-1 ML worth throwing in to the verticals and horizontals.
• 4 Writingonthewall – won two of his last three including a very nice win at today’s distance against a $25K starter allowance. One of four at AQU and won his only start at this distance. Michelle Nevin has kept a low profile at AQU but is 5 of 6 in the money. Should be a solid favorite and would be no surprise at all to find the winners enclosure.
• 5 Sol The Freud – Finished second off a two month layoff and comes back after another five weeks off. Has one uninspiring work for this one, but has the number and the running style to compete.

Race 9

• 7 Fulmer – Didn’t break well in his last, dropped all the way back and then started a long sustained run down the backstretch. Nobody was beating Kerjillion that day and Fulmer did well to get the place. Third place runner broke his maiden next time out. Very Dangerous with a good break.
• 10 No Texting – plenty of early speed but questionable heart in the stretch. Still, the track has played friendly to speed so that is in his favor. Has the figures to win here.
• 4 Gear Jammer – Looked  pretty good in his last two starts at a mile and adds blinkers today. Has a couple of nice workouts prepping for this.
• 8 Pronunciation – first two finishers came from well off the pace. Bumped at the start and had to work hard to get a spot. Stayed wide throughout and really wasn’t likely sustain to given the early trouble and position. Can improve enough to outpace the field here.
• 6 Mark My Style – ran poorly on the slop but in his prior race ran a good one in the same race Gear Jammer finished 3rd. He was only half a length behind that one and should be double Gear Jammer’s odds. I’ll probably use him in my pick 3/4.

A few really poor fields, but a couple of competitive races.

Race 1

This race is one of the poor ones. I want to comment about the 1 Eva Lil. She has started 34 times, has two third place finishes and $17K in winnings. That means she averages $500 per start. There is no reason this horse should be allowed to race, especially at one of the big NY tracks.

• 7 Hot On Ice – was on two gooey tracks in a row and the turf the race before that. She’s run consistent figures at this level and does have a good turn of early speed. I like that she was able to hold off all horses except the winner last race. Should be volleying up front and just needs to show a little more courage in the stretch to nail this one.
• 2 Alice and Trixie – even money ML favorite. Hasn’t been out since April but has a steady series of works for the return, including two bullets. Was racing against slightly better competition and has experience on this track. If she comes out in shape she might dominate this field.
• 3 Built in a Day – only has three lifetime starts which keeps her out of the potential professional maiden category. Her last two starts were on off tracks, and I liked that she showed a little interest on the BEL slop. Hard to make a case for any other runner in this field.

Race 2

• 5 Hundred Percent – ran well in the mud last out. A little concerning he hasn’t been on the turf but he shouldn’t have any problem with the distance despite backing up at the sprint distance. If Cornelio gets him to relax he should be able to better distribute the speed.
• 1 Intelligence – first timer for Bill Mott and usually this means the horse doesn’t have much of a shot. In this field a lot of the starters have not shown much, so despite the Mott record, this could be the one that is the exception to the rule.
• 8 Thrown of My Own – showed a tiny bit in his debut on the turf and showed a bit more on the slop when the race came off the turf. Low profile connections don’t help but in a field where not many starters have shown anything, these are good credentials.
• 7J C’s Not Brown – goes for Kimmel who’s pretty good with first timers and two year olds. Decent set of works for the debut and would be no surprise in front at the wire.

Race 3

• 2 Furyofthenorsemen – wild ride in the slop first time out so the not-too-close third is forgivable. Far and away the top figure of the horses that have started. Steve Klesaris has quietly had a good year. Arroyo rode him last time, so there is some familiarity with the horse.
• 5 American Soldier – hunch plays don’t get any better than a horse with that name on Veterans Day. Tony Dutrow is fair with first timers and two year olds. The works at Fair Hill have been ok, nothing spectacular, but that seems to be Dutrow’s style. The capable Irad Ortiz gets the mount.
• 6 Madroos – Love the breeding (Indian Charlie and a Malibu Moon mare). Kieran is pretty good with firsters and two year olds. Nice set of works for the debut. The improving Manny Franco gets the ride.
• 1 Saratoga Wildcat – apparently didn’t care for the slop and really never got into his debut race. Has the rail and should improve today.

Race 4

• 2 Gabby’s Brown – ran a good second in her debut race despite having to move between foes.. Rudy Rodriguez trains and Manny Franco stays to ride. Not likely to get any odds but looks best.
• 1 Ferzetti – started her career in DEL with two close seconds. Stepped up to BEL and had a troubled trip first time in NY. Still, she finished fourth in that race. Has plenty of experience and adds Lasix today.
• 7 Samus – Claimed for $40K by Contessa only 12 days ago and wheels right back. Troubled start didn’t help, rushed up some and didn’t fade badly. Expect some improvement today.
• 6 Birkenhead – another one that had trouble last out. Picks up Johnny V today. Looks good enough to catch a part.

Race 5

• 7 Grand Rapport – been generally going longer but is 3 of 4 at today’s distance. Was ambitiously placed in the Bowling Game and still ran respectably. Cornelio has consistently ridden the horse and knows him well. Does nothing but finish first or second.
• 2 Media Kid – only one start at this distance but looks like the best of the horses with early foot. You have to worry about him getting an easy lead and running off with the race. Another that is consistent about being in the money. Seems to flourish when the turf is a little softer, and has run well even with a closer’s bias.
• 1 Treasury Devil – just won at a mile last out for Rudy Rodriguez. Johnny V stays for the ride. The turf should be firm today and that is Treasury Devil’s preferred condition. Two good maintenance works since last should keep him on edge.
• 9 Best Actor – veteran runner fits at this class level. Has struggled to find the winner’s enclosure lately, but has a penchant for finishing in the money.

Race 6

• 7 Socialsaul – 2 of 4 over the AQU dirt. Claimed by Jacobson two back and all he’s done is get the horse to reel off two in a row. Keeps him at the same price level. Consistent figures.
• 6 Volastic – claimed last out by Chris Englehart. Hasn’t been as hot as he was earlier but is still a first rate claiming trainer. Fairly consistent figures – gave Socialsaul all he could handle last time.
• 2 Zoebear – claimed in last two races, last time by Abby Adsit. Seems to have some trouble pushing all the way to the wire, but Adsit has been doing well improving horses after a claim. A couple of nice breezes for this start. May be the pacesetter in this race.
• 5 Reggie D – Not likely a winner, but last time he was at this level just missed. Useful in the back holes.

Race 7

• 8 Blacktype – rode the rail on a soft turf last out, and when they hit the stretch he had nowhere to go. Had to bide his time, finally found a clear lane and closed with interest. Has been consistent this year and should improve in his second start with Lasix. Gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz. 3-1 ML would be good if he stayed there at post time.
• 10 Which Market – bumps up a little in distance but is 3 of 7 going the 1 1/16. Good figures and fits in this group.
• 6 Ocala Jim – has been superb on the lawn all year. Only bad defeat was against the top state-bred turfers in the Mohawk. Would be no surprise here.
• 1 Iron Power – been backing up a little against NW1X on the turf. Won last out on a sloppy track. Has the best early foot in the race and will look to carry his speed all the way. Switches riders to the other Ortiz.

Race 8

• 8 North Ocean – two consecutive races on a sloppy track. He appears to prefer a firmer track. 2 of 6 at the distance and a second in two tries at AQU. Been very popular at the claim box and currently is in the Linda Rice barn. Will head to the front and if he runs back to some of his earlier races he’ll be tough to catch.
• 7 Regulus – 2 for 2 at the mile. Has a nice pressing style and competitive figures. Actually dropping a bit in price today.
• 5 Springcourt – Contessa has been busy at the claiming box and after grabbing this one last out wheels him back for the same price.  Another one with a good record at the distance and at AQU.
• 6 Chairman Now – front running sort just missed against Springcourt last out. Bullet work on 10/30 confirms he’s going to the front and will have to be caught.

Race 9

• 8 Barbara’s Smile – horse has been disappointing since claim by Sciacca in July. But, with only 8 starts she has the right to improve. Finished behind a couple of the professional NW2L horses last out but puts blinkers on and hopefully that will be enough to get her to the winner’s enclosure.
• 4 Flirtacious Spring – 21 starts, one win but a bunch of seconds and thirds. Competitive just not good about leading at the wire.
• 9 My Four Rewards – another that struggles to win races. Good prospect for a back hole.
• 5 It’s Your Dime – Just broke her maiden after 11 tries. Has a lot of early speed and will try to use it all the way to the wire.