Selections

Aqueduct November 16

It doesn’t pay to handicap for the turf too far ahead of time. There can be days of sunshine and somehow the track is still listed as yielding. Absolutely frustrating for handicappers. Some competitive races today, some because all the horses are equally terrible.

Race 1

  • 1 Ring Knocker – Raced well at SAR but was no match in the Frizette in the slop. The top three from that race went on to the BC Juvenile fillies. Wonder Gal and Feathered were third and fourth in that race, only a length out. She’ll be back on a fast track and should improve with this group.
  • 7 Eloquent Tribute – Two good races at BEL and actually finished ahead of Treasure in her last. One of the players.
  • 3 Embellish the Lace – has been working lights out at Fair Hill for Tony Dutrow. He’s fair with first time MSW, The horse was a $320K purchase at last September’s Keeneland sale so there are expectations for the horse. This field is not so strong he can’t dominate it if he meets expectations. Johnny V takes the reins and that is a positive.
  • 5 Steely Magnolia – First timer for McLaughlin. Has a quick series of drills for this race, although none longer than four furlongs. Gets Irad and that should help.

Race 2     The Key Cents     3-2-4-5

  • 1 Sweetpollypurebred – Is something of an underdog in this event (people of a certain age will understand the joke). Won her maiden at BEL at 6 1/2, wiring the field. The time was good for two year olds. She came back in the Maid of the Mist at a mile and ran evenly around the track. She has numbers to match any of the runners in this race but may have trouble if she tries to go with My Super Nova.
  • 2 Alexandrie – Opened her career on the dirt at SAR but was no match that day for Temper Mint Patty. Came back on the turf and wired a seven furlong field. She has the talent and the figure to be a factor in this race.
  • 3 My Super Nova – Took her three tries but she was game in beating a maiden field in October on a muddy BEL track. She was only a neck behind the aforementioned Temper Mint Patty in her debut and then got demolished by the same horse, but of course so did everyone else, in the Joseph Gimma. She’s a solid ML favorite, and while I don’t think she is dominant, I think she’s the best in the field.
  • 4 The Lewis Dinner – a winner in her fourth maiden start but was competitive in the three races before that. Her figures are about like the others, so a win would be no surprise.
  • 5 Sandra – fourth behind the very strong Quezon and Temper Mint Patty in the Maid of the Mist. Looks like she’ll be strong in the mid-distance races. Might be one of the ones closing in the stretch and if there is a torrid duel, she may be the one to benefit.
  • 6  Dunn Listening – Doesn’t look like a match for this group.

Race 3

  • 6 Energy Spirit – only two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. Came from well out to win his maiden event, then went off as favorite in a mile and a sixteenth race on the BEL turf. He was a little wide in that race and ran evenly around the yielding track. His turf figures are as good as any other horse. Might get some decent odds on him.
  • 8 Los Borrachos – 11 starts, 1 win and 4 place finishes, and two of the place finishes are on the turf. Certainly has the talent to take this field, but you have to question his willingness to leave the field in his wake. Has a useful series of works since his last and maybe Mott has him more willing to get to the front of the pack.
  • 5 Ironicus – only four starts to this point in his career and once McGaughey moved him to the turf he really blossomed. What I don’t like is the plodding style, although Rosario should be helpful in steering him through the traffic. Has the talent and the figures to get the win.
  • 9 Sycamore Lane – broke his maiden last out despite a little bumping at the start. Tried a pressing style but Mott has him coming from well off the pace. Lezcano stays for this ride.

Race 4

  • 7 Harlans Six – prospered when dropped from MSW to $40K. That race was in the mud and she ran a strange one. She broke on top, then continued to drop back and made a furious but belated move in the stretch. Frankly, I don’t think she is worth an 8-5 ML, but that race does look like the figure topper for this field.  I’d hope to see a little better strategic race this time.
  • 5 Laura’s Patriot – Puts the blinkers on for Gary Gullo and he is 26% with that move. I’d like to see a workout or two in the last two weeks, but he’s ok off the short layoff. She was well backed first time out at SAR and you have to take that as a positive sign.
  • 4 Secret Militaire – Dropping from MSW, and in this field that may do the trick. Frankly this is a bit of a stab, mainly because the field is suspect. She didn’t break well, didn’t do anything in the race, but she has come back with a good workout. Anthony Quarterolo has not had a good 2014, and he puts Anthony Cruz on the horse to save a little weight. I’m speculating the horse is better than she showed last out – but I could be wrong.
  • 8 Rhody Rendezvous – another bit of a stab. She puts blinkers on today, and actually did show a little bit of speed last out. I don’t think she is a good win prospect, but could make and exacta or trifecta.

Race 5

In the main part of the field, there are 10 horses, each with one win and AVERAGING over 20 starts. One of these horses will unavoidably get the win today. When 1 for 20something horses win, it’s often in a field like this.

Update: 11 Frogman Mel drew in from the AE list and immediately becomes a contender. He’s been in against slightly better and only has 9 starts, not many compared to most in this field. Lately he has been closing and he’ll need a little bit of pace to run at, but his figures are competitive. He is a definite win possibility.

  • 7 Double Whammy – it’s as if one field just gets worse than the last. I’m resisting putting the ML favorite Wind of Bosphorus on top, so Double Whammy inherits the nod. David Jacobson trains, and I’m sure he’s stinging from suffering two defeats on Saturday with heavily bet favorites. Double Whammy did beat a $40K maiden field, but never got going against a $50K starter allowance field where he was over his head. He hasn’t broken alertly, and has that come from well out of it style, but if you’re looking for something to bet other than the favorite, and you want more than 8-5 on a Jacobson horse, this looks like the one. At least he doesn’t get the chronic NW2L label the rest of them get.
  • 1 Wind of Bosphorus – I said I was resisting putting him on top, not leaving him out entirely. Presses but has trouble closing the deal so Bruce Brown has been dropping him Today is as low as he’s been in quite a while. 20 starts and one official win (he won a $35K maiden and was disqualified from purse money for the ridiculous oxazepam violation). In any case he later won a $35K claimer so he remains eligible for NW2L races. He tops the field figure-wise, but it might be a little risky to take 7-5 on the horse. Still, it is about as weak a field as he’s ever seen.
  • 9 Toy Cannon – 18 starts 5 seconds, and a bunch of thirds and fourths. Looks reasonable for an in the money finish.
  • 6 Papa Freud – another with 29 starts and multiple in the money (but only one win) finishes. Has one really good race on October 1, and if he runs to that he’s in the mix.

Race 6

  • 6 Round – practically broke on his knees at the start, tried to take a right turn and Rosario had to yank him hard left to get back in the race (are you listening Victor Espinoza). he went five wide around the turn and finished two and a half lengths behind the winner. Two horses have come out of that race to win. Based on the lousy trip, he gets a figure upgrade, and he was already the fastest in the field. I’m feeling pretty solid about Round, especially if Liam’s Map is going to get 2-5 action.
  • 5 Liam’s Map – goes for Pletcher. He demolished a field at Belmont in September in a snappy 1:34.72, but then oddly went on the shelf until today. He sold for almost 12 times his stud fee and he’s been working on the BEL training track about every six or seven days since mid-October. He’ll be tough to beat at his best and with Round they stand above the other starters.
  • 3 Finn’s Quest – has two wins lifetime, putting him ahead of most of the field. He hasn’t been out since the AQU inner dirt meet, but Morely is 1 for 4 with horses returning off a long layoff. Has a win and a second at the mile distance.

Race 7

  • 4 Congress Park – come out running at BEL at today’s distance but got caught by Ack Naughty. He followed that up with a good third at 1 1/16 miles. On the plus side, high percentage rider Javier Castellano stays, but on the down side trainer Bruce Brown has had some trouble cracking the winner’s circle at this meet. Still looks good as long as a couple of the AE’s don’t scratch in.
  • 10 R Y Squadron – ran well in the mud when his race washed off the turf. Chad Brown is best known as a turf trainer, especially with two year old fillies. She showed a lot of speed last out, and the turf has not been playing well to front runners of late, but with Irad in the saddle she should be able to meter her energy.
  • 6 Fourstar Crook – bumped out of the gate, wound up at the back of the pack, but closed steadily through the race. Like it when a horse shows interest after adversity, even if it is just passing tired horses. The other Chad Brown trainee has every reason to improve.
  • 1 Not Now Joanie – showed good speed in her debut on a yielding track that was unkind to front runners. Should get a good spot out of the gate, and if Saez distributes her energy better, has a chance to hit the board.

Race 8    The Notebook     5-4-7-1

  • 1 Breakin the Fever – Won his maiden in fine fashion on a sloppy BEL track, returned in the Sleepy Hollow, showed speed and faded into oblivion. He looks better suited to the sprint and low profile trainer Debra Breed puts blinkers on today. Not without a chance.
  • 2 Regal Minister – Dueled all the way around the track with Saint Joseph who came back to win his MSW next time out. It wasn’t a particularly fast time, but improvement is possible.
  • 3 Navy Blue – two races on the dirt, then three on the turf, and then he breaks his maiden on a muddy track. Just don’t think he’s good enough here.
  • 4 Tizquick – Ran a good second first time out, beating Breakin the Fever in the process, then came out in the B F Bongard in the BEL mud, got taken out at the start by Bullhead Boy, checking hard and quickly backing out of the race. That race has to be a throw-out considering the trouble and the mud. He broke his maiden next out in pretty fair time, coming from well off the pace to run by the field. Can catch a piece of this one.
  • 5 Good Luck Gus – Broke his maiden at SAR in July, then ran three state bred stakes, winning the NY Breeders Futurity at FL. He finished second to the powerful Ostrolenka in the Sleepy Hollow. He’s listed at 8-5 on the ML and that’s about what I would expect him to go off. Can sprint, can route and can run fast.
  • 6 Deputy Busterstone – Demolished by Good Luck Gus in the Breeders Futurity before breaking his maiden on a muddy FL track. I still think he is overmatched here.
  • 7 Bullhead Boy – Has been running and doing well in the NY stakes. Added blinkers last out and if anything they hurt his performance. Pletcher takes them off today and that improves his chances. He’s had more than his share of trouble at the starting gate – brushed the gate last time, lunged at the start of the Bongard, hit the gate and then Tizquick, but still managing to finish second, and in his maiden had a minor bumping incident. If he races clean, he could wind up best.
  • 8 Clockwork –  Broke his maiden in a pedestrian time on a muddy BEL track. No reason to expect he is better than his 15-1 ML.
  • 9 One Eyed Ray – Broke his maiden at BEl on the turf, finished second in the Laurel Futurity, and then couldn’t handle the yielding BEL turf in the Awad. Sold for three times the stud fee so he’s well though of, but I’ll have to see him proven against this sort of field on the fast dirt before I can get excited about him.

Race 9

  • 5 Pretty Nauty – Ran a diminishing second to E Biscuit despite having a bumping incident around the turn with the horse that finished 5th. The jockey actually had to stand up in the saddle, he was trapped behind horses on the rail and he rallied to get within half a length at the wire. He also was part of an early pace in which the first two horses on the backstretch finished 10th and 11th. It was an impressive race. He finished a close 4th in a mile at SAR at this class level. He fits, he has the figure to win and he looks ready. Trainer Jamie Ness doesn’t bring many in, but when he does they are live and he is a 22% trainer this year with over 600 starts. A lot to like and if he stays 7-2 worth betting.
  • 1 With Expression – has set the pace in most of his races, a style that hasn’t been particularly successful at AQU. Still, he has good numbers and has shown some heart in the stretch. Should get a little firmer surface to run on.
  • 9 All Over Me – Was rank in winning his maiden at SAR in a state-bred $40K, came back at a mile in a NW1X and essentially took himself out at the start. Ran a much improved race for $25K on a yielding BEL track, running his top number. Looking to turn the tables on Coexist and Rontos New York.
  • 3 Coexist – twelve starts, and lately has been running in the money. Low probability for the win, but can catch a piece.