Selections

Aqueduct November 15

Racing at Aqueduct is maddening. One day you have a pick 6 that pays $1,800, the next day you have indecipherable races. Now, they take races off the turf while the sun is shining and there is little time left in the turf season. But, we rise to the challenges.

Race 1

  • 1/1a Wealth to Me/Moonluck – It seems like hardly a day goes by when Jacobson doesn’t have an entry in some race. Wealth to Me just won a $35K Starter Allowance by 13 at BEL, and was no more than an additive length from having won his last five races. The horse has been consistent this year and has the race topping figures. Moonluck has won four of his five races in 2014 against competition as good as what he’ll face today. Since Cornelio is named on both horses there will be a scratch. I’ll assume whichever one stays in is the one Jacobson thinks is best in this field.
  • 4 Non Stop – on a two race winning streak, the last on the BEL slop. He’s fine on fast tracks too. I like the pressing style  and while his figures don’t quite match the Jacobson runners, he has the talent and heart to win.
  • 5 Street Shark – another with a pressing style. He was claimed by Chris Englehart for $40K and returned at this level, running evenly and finishing third. He’s won 5 of 10 this year and is definitely competitive.

Race 2

It looks to me like someone told trainers the races would be off the turf on Saturday, because this race has more horses without major turf experience than with it. Turns out they were right. I’ll stay with Animal Style even though he was my turf pick but I’ll move M J Plus up to the top.  Abilio moves into the top three, The three MTO’s all have a chance, with Love to Run and Market Blaster sticking out.

  • 9 Legendary King – has 8 lifetime wins and 7 are on the turf. He obviously didn’t care for the BEL slop last out although he did show a little speed in that race. Before that he only finished a length behind open $25K claimers, and had two wins at Suffolk on the turf before that. Has a good tracking style and is listed at 8-1 on ML.
  • 4 Animal Style – I wish I had been paying attention to Parx on November 2 because one of the great angles in racing is to back a horse coming back fairly quickly after being vanned off in his previous race. In any case, that race made him eligible for this $12,500 starter since before that he hadn’t raced for less than $25K. This looks to me like an attempt to steal a race and the 12-1 ML is juicy. He has a place and a show at this distance and is 3 of 10 on the turf.
  • 2 MJ Plus – has a lot of fast figures – on the dirt. He has run five times on the turf and has only won once. He’s not without a shot, but at 2- 1 I can look elsewhere for the win.
  • 7 Abilio – in great condition having won his last two races on the dirt at a mile. Looks very tough now that the race is off the turf.

Race 3

  • 9 B.B.’s Remington – improved substantially when dropped to $40K, although that was on the slop. Is the best of the horses that have started. Contessa conditioning is a plus.
  • 6 The Fixer – Never got into his first race on the slop. Drops from MSW to $40K claimers and the track should be much firmer today. He was ovbviously well meant first out at 3-1 odds. Today might be his day.
  • 7 Golden Boy – Linda Rice doesn’t have a great record with first timers, but she is effective with two year olds. He has a useful series of works for this debut.
  • 1 Can’tcatchjack – total clunker on the slop in his debut race. He wasn’t well backed in that event, but Albertrani had been doing better with young two year olds late at SAR and at BEL. The works since his debut haven’t sparkled, but they should give him a needed edge.

Race 4

  • 1/1a Bobby V/Patriot’s Voyage – Again both are trained by Jacobson and both have Cornelio named to ride. Patriot’s Voyage was trained by Baffert and you can see in the workouts the typical fast works Baffert is known for, then all of a sudden he starts working like a plow horse and Jacobson is called in to work his magic. He’s tons faster on his best day, but it’s really hard to back the horse. Bobby V on the other hand was claimed last out by Jacobson, and he is unworldy with 1st off the claim. If he goes he will likely be the favorite and it would be hard  not to back him.
  • 11 Summit County – never a good sign that he has more thirds than firsts but he’s been with better in the not too distant past. Puts blinkers on and I’m surprised they haven’t tried them before. Has good enough figures to compete here.
  • 7 Perfect Trippi – Dropped over to MTH in search of a win at what looks like a slightly lower price but is essentially just the same bottom level claimers he’s up against today. Carlos Martin is good with medium layoff horses and at 15-1 I’ll include him in exotics.
  • 5 Tummel – has a lot of starts this year with mixed success. I like the pressing style and he has chances in a field this weak.

Race 5

  • 10 Changewilldoyagood – two starts at a mile, one win on a good turf one on the yielding turf. He ran better than looked on the yielding track considering he ran wide around the track. He’s come back with one decent workout. Has a good running style and a  lot of upside.
  • 3 Macagone – has a lot of early foot, but has a tendency to not finish as strongly. Still, he has strong figures and that can’t be discounted.
  • 1 Runaway Posse – took until his fourth start to break his maiden, but the move to the turf brought out the best in him and now that he’s figured it out he may duplicate the effort. This field is not so strong he can’t win.
  • 5 Iced Over – has been at the level a while and in 8 starts has five third place finishes. May be more useful in the verticals than the horizontals.

Race 6

It was hard to get down to four contenders. I struggled with including the Gary Contessa first timer, Call Daddy is dropping from MSW to MCL and that can signal big improvement, and Bert Stone ran a good race at KEE, although it was for $30K and Gullo is not notable with horses first starting for him. In fact, of the eight starters, each had positives and negatives. In any case, I settled on

  • 7 Overthespeedlimit – Came out at $40K and pretty much nothing went his way. Track was muddy, he was wide throughout, and still managed a close second. A series of five workouts since that race, and the last one was impressive. Dutrow is 28% with second start maidens.
  • 3 Astron – Ran a decent race in a $75K MCL then went into a MSW where he hit the gate and never got into the race. Has had a lot of trouble getting out of the gate and I have to believe Gullo has used the month and a half off to fix that problem. Certainly has the talent to compete and if he can get out, he has big chances.
  • 6 Whateveryouwant – has shown a lot of early foot but no courage in the stretch. Switches to the bug boy today and maybe that will overcome his lack of stamina. Has the overall best figures.
  • 4 It’s Perfect Too – but the blinkers on last trip and it almost got him to the wire first. He jumps up today so we’ll see if the shades keep him going or if he is over his head.

Race 7   The Red Smith   Grade 3    4-3-1-8

  • 1 Red Rifle – all sorts of speed but not an uncontrollable need-to-lead type. He ran a nice race in the Hill Prince as a three year old, and then Pletcher moved him to the dirt where he ran creditably if not remarkably. He then put him back on the turf and he blossomed, winning the Yankee Affair and finishing second three other times, including the Grade 3 Sycamore at KEE. I think he gets a nod because of his speed and ability to stay the distance. Jockey switch from Johnny V to Bravo is of concern.
  • 2 Margano – doesn’t appear to have the class to get involved in this one.
  • 3 Dynamic Sky – Has been running graded events in his last five, and although he hasn’t won, he’s had two seconds and two thirds. In his last, the Candian International, he finished two lengths behind likely favorite Big Blue Kitten. He’s for real and Mark Casse is one of the best, if not underrated, conditioners around.
  • 4 Big Blue Kitten – the stickout class of the field, but has been beatable this year, with only a restricted stakes in the win column. He is a six year old and might be slowing down, but if anyone can get the best out of him, it would be Chad Brown. He’s always there at the end, but he’ll need a top effort to beat this field. Still the top choice for me.
  • 5 Micromanage – ran third in the Bowl Game to North Slope, a horse that had been spending all his time in $62K OC races. He ran a big one for his first race on the green, but will have to contend with Red Rifle if he decides to run to the front again. Marginal at best for me.
  • 6 St Albans Boy – Also comes out of the Bowl Game where he finished behind the 5. He can certainly go the distance, but he looks ambitiously placed to me.
  • 7 Calvados – I’ve had Calvados – it’s not exactly to my taste but I get the appeal (no pun intended). Pretty much like the horse in this race. He only has two starts in America, but improved in the Laurel Turf Cup. Manchurian High is no Big Blue Kitten and I think if he sneaks in it is for a lesser award.
  • 8 Legendary – Five year old gelding ran his best race of the year in the Grade 2 Knickerbocker last time out. He beat Up With the Birds, the fourth place finisher in the Arlington Million. His race in the Lure was not bad, and there is no shame in getting beat by Big Blue Kitten. He has to be in the mix for me.
  • 9 Can’thelpbelieving – a young horse, perhaps improving, but I think he has a way to go before catching up with this field.
  • 10 Unitarian – won the Grade 2 Elkhorn at KEE. Likes to run from far back, so he’ll need the right pace up front. I’m not enamored with the style so I’ll take my chances leaving him out.
  • 11 Manighar – was a good one last year but it seems like age may be catching up with him. Only raced once this year in the Fort Marcy in May and backed out of the race after 3/4. I can understand why people might back him, but there are too many others that you don’t have to guess about in this race.

Race 8

  • 3 Leroy Jr. – good tactical speed and demolished a field last time he raced at AQU. Chad Brown trains and although Javier is not riding here, Manny Franco has been doing a good job. Recent work should have him sharp.
  • 6 Captain Toews – has been a disappointment most of the year despite looking good in a few fields. This field is weak enough that he could pick up one of the bigger checks.
  • 4 Man of Mystery – Poor trainer and Laurel jockey Sheldon Russell comes in to ride. Showed good speed in the slop last out when winning a state-bred MSW. Sometimes a horse can overcome his trainer and this looks like one that might. Gotta like the Fair Hill workouts.
  • 5 Mighty Zealous – Broke his maiden in his fourth start in rather impressive fashion, then was given a five month rest. Has fair workouts for his return. Linda Rice runners seem to need a race off the layoff, but have to like late improving three year olds.

Race 9

  • 5 Broken Border – Broke from the far outside and stayed wide throughout, still getting up for the place. Has a much better spot today, although the switch from Lezcano to Izzy Rodriguez is a negative.
  • 3 Stolen Victory – race well at a mile in an off the turf affair two weeks ago. Tracked a little closer that day and has a couple of speed drills to sharpen the edge. Could be the one if Broken Border doesn’t favor the dirt.
  • 10 Kool Charlie – first timer for Dilger is bred better for the dirt than the turf, and Tale of the Cat is a good one for siring precocious runners. Dilger is red hot at AQU with four wins and two seconds in nice starts. Gets Johnny V for the debut. Useful if not outstanding series of works.
  • 2 Cosmic Tale – showed lots of speed on the turf and didn’t run that badly on the dirt at SAR this summer. Speed is always dangerous so she gets a nod here.