The main track is listed as good today with the turf yielding and three races taken off the turf. I’ll try to correct the best I can.

Race 1

All three horses I selected have good wet track ratings. No change in this race.

• 1 Ozone – Drops from MSW down to $75K, a move we’ll see more and more as the year winds down and trainers decide which of their horses have real potential as three year olds. This one has been off since July when she lost to one of the good two year old fillies, Cavorting. She’s been working well for a month now and Contessa is fair with long layoff horses. Have to respect this one.
• 3 Diannestillworks – Came out at SAR in what turned out to be a not very productive maiden race and then was thrashed by Feathered who ran fourth by a length in the BC Juv Fillies. She had trouble in that race but it would be a stretch to try to make a case for her since Feathered won by almost 10. She’s another dropping out of MSW, has one of the better AQU winter trainers in RuRod, and has some average works for the return. She’s listed 9-5 on the ML and I’m not sure she’s that good.
• 4 Kisses for Romeo – was in the same MSW that Dianestillworks came out in, and ran a little closer to the pace. Schettino is fair with layoff horses. Longer series of works than the other two and perhaps has a pace advantage today.

Race 2

The only turf race left on the grass. The 2 can be downgraded some on the yielding track. No idea if the turf will be tiring but if it is that may compromise the 3. It may upgrade the 6 Daylight Ride who has run well on a yielding track previously. 

• 2 Orion Moon – finished a short neck behind Waterway Run in the Beaugay in May, came back in July in the Perfect Stranger, technically set the pace, and backed up in the stretch on a yielding track. She seems to prefer a firmer surface and should get that today. Has fired fresh on a few occasions so no worry there.
• 3 Party Now – lightly raced three year old hasn’t run a bad race this year, but has only been in races with three year olds. McGaughey is ambitious placing the horse in this spot but he’s good with layoff runners. Another that likes to run toward the front and will much prefer the mile.
• 5 Tuttipaesi – been off a year and a half, but before that ran in two graded events. Switched to the Mott barn for this run and he is fair with layoff horses. Could be the X factor in here.

Race 3

Yep. Just checked and it’s still a horrible field.

• 3 Distant Thoughts – after watching the races the past couple of days, I’m not sure any horse deserves to be 3-5, and definitely not this one. It’s a weak field, but this is a horse that took six starts to break his maiden and that was against bottom level $25K claimers. Still, he’s got some tactical speed and the best last race figure at today’s distance, and a useful if unspectacular workout since his last race.
• 8 Volatile Markets – Chris Englehart brings this one from FL where he last raced in July. 16 starts and only a maiden victory, but he generally runs in the vicinity of the winner. Perhaps the time off will do him good. He has a couple of nice workouts to boot.
• 2 Thorin – is another horse inching toward professional NW2L status. Trainer picked him up for $5K at MTH, jumped up to $35K and caught a sloppy AQU track, then bombed at Parx in a $10K claiming event. He’s had a lot of trouble getting out of the gate alertly, but if he does he has a shot here.

Race 4

Now off the turf. No reason to change picks. Perhaps the 5 gets an upgrade today.

• 7 Teresas Candyrose – Jimmy Jerkens sends her out for her first start since January at GP. She actually won her maiden race at a mile only to be disqualified from purse money. She switched barns to Steve Hobby for a run at CD in a MSW event on the dirt and finished a middling 5th. Then she went back to the Jerkens barn in a $75K MCL, never got out of the gate and raced wide all the way around but still managed third. She’s got a nice series of workouts for the return and actually has as fast a figure as anyone in the race. Another that has to be a little suspect at 5-2 ML but still looks good in this field.
• 5 Rachel’s Temper – ten start maiden who was in at this price last out but the race washed off the grass. She ran a nice second in that race, running slightly faster than she’s been on the grass. Still her grass numbers are competitive and she’s a good in the money prospect.
• 8 Shine On Erin – has only one start in a state bred $40K MCL. It was a slow race, but given she stumbled at the start and was ridiculously wide coming into the stretch. She was flattered when the winner of that race, Miss Motivation, came back to win her next start. She’s got three works since that one, so she should be about as sharp as she’s going to get.
• 1 Time for Harlan – Didn’t care for the slop in an off the turf event last out and was trounced in a $65K MCL the race before that. At this claiming price and distance she finished a close third in June. She’s at the right level and has prospects today.

Race 5

• 3 Groomedforvictory – won on a muddy track  last out at AQU with state bred OC $40. He’s 6 of 13 at AQU and 12 of 26 at this distance. Horse has only been off a week but Jacobson is good with the quick turnaround. Lots of positives but he is a nine year old and he is racing on short rest. Will probably go favorite but has some competition.
• 6 Joe Mooch – Not a great win percentage but he was taken last out by Linda Rice who is 17% first off the claim. In fact, he’s been taken his last three starts where he has a win, place and fourth. Last race was a fast one and he has good prospects here.
• 1 Fiona’s Hero – Raced two weeks ago at AQU and was taken by Contessa out of that race. Has a lot of tactical speed and he’ll probably have to use it from the rail. Had been with better over the summer and should fit well here.
• 4 Saturday Appeal – only 3 wins in 32 starts, but 8 place finishes. Good probability of an in the money finish.

Race 6

Off the turf. Two of my selections scratched and the MTO 1 Pleiadian made it in. He definitely has to be included in the mix. 3 of 4 on a wet track, just missed at AQU last out, running to the front and only losing by half a length. He hasn’t been this far before, and he’s not well bred for longer races, but if he can meter his speed he has outs. 3 Bedouin Now has spent most of his career on the dirt so he should move up today, plus he has some mile and an eighth races.

• 2 Lay It Down – a bit of a guru pick here. Hasn’t raced at the distance, but tries hard every race. Has good speed and may be able to use it to his advantage in this race – no other horse can really match him up front. Should be good odds at post.
• 8 Shetan – Has been with much better in the recent past. Only has four starts this year but has a win. Doesn’t seem to be a distance specialist, but has pretty good breeding for the longer trips. The main danger.
• 7 Global Asset – Comes in from LRL and has been racing with these types. Has one distance race and ran fairly evenly around the track in that one. Doesn’t have a win this year so he’s suspect in that regard, but this is a weak field and if he’s going to jump up this might be the race.
• 4 Arc Above – got caught in an off the turf event last out but has been specializing in distance races on the turf. High in the money percentage, but has trouble hitting the win position.

Race 7

None of the horses has outstanding wet track ratings so we’ll just leave things as they are.

• 7 Scattered Dreams – four starts with two seconds and a third. Last race figure was faster than anything else in here. Klesaris is good with sprint to route, although his juveniles in this category have had a hard time hitting the win slot. In his race two back where Klesaris claimed him there were four on the line and he was unlucky not to win. I like the running style and the fact that he moved back to MSW.
• 6 Beyond the Green – caught a muddy track for his debut. He was wide in that race and made his move too late. He has a very nice workout from four days ago and he’s well bred for a mile. Have to expect improvement today.
• 1 Humboldt and Frost – Different riders named for him and his entry mate so we might get a strong two for one. He’s been the distance on a muddy track and ran second all the way around. Has excellent chances today.
• 8 Arctic King – Finished half a length behind Humboldt in his last and has a good workout in prep for this one. Started out in the MCL ranks and while he didn’t disgrace himself in the MSW, he might have a tougher time with this group.

Race 8

All my selections scratched leaving a five horse field. Golden Itiz and Frazil get in off the MTO list. Golden Itiz prefers shorter routes, but has a superior wet track rating. Jumps up quite a bit for this one but is not without chances. Frazil has been sprinting lately but has been successful at a mile and an eighth. Is 5 of 7 in the money on wet tracks.In the horizontals I may hit the all button in this race.

• 3 Barrel of Love – Rudy Rodriguez claimed the horse last out and brings him back at the same level just not claim eligible. Had been competitive with sate bred open allowance horses and didn’t run badly in the West Point to some of the best NY turf horses. Is having a good year with 6 of 8 in the money.
• 6 Arctic North – specializes in longer distance races and has been competitive at this level all year. Won his last against two of the others in this spot and no reason not to expect him to run well today.
• 1 Joes Blazing Aaron – Went to the front in his last two mile and a quarter races; held on in one, finished second in the other. He’s capable, expecially considering there isn’t a lot of pace in the race.
• 11 Red Vine – Been racing long all year and seems to always be in competition with Joes Blazing Aaron and Arctic North. Seems to be more in the money than win.

Race 9

Lots of horses with good wet track ratings and Boss Daddy’s is superior. Could move Road to Rockport up. 

• 3 Read the Mirage – obviously didn’t take to the turf last out. Was taken by Thomas Morely and returns on the right surface at the right distance. Good steady series of works for his return. A little bothersome all his success has been on the inner dirt, but still has to be given respect here.
• 1 Scully – was demolished first out by Declassify who went on to become a Grade 1 winner. That was 19 months ago and you have to wonder what he’s been doing since then. Switches to Patrick Reynolds who has given him fair workouts for his return. Note that he had been working at Westfield Farm in Florida back in March and all of a sudden stopped. Likely a horse that had a major physical issue, so be warned he could be any sort.
• 4 Boss Daddy – Opened a clear lead in the stretch against $20K MCL and got caught, not necessarily the best sign, but he does cut back in distance a half furlong and that may do the trick. The track was sloppy in his last and perhaps that is what put the zoom in his performance, and if it stays wet today it seems like it would only help. Abby Adsit trains and that is a plus, but a very ambiguous choice here.
• 8 Road to Rockport – hasn’t caught a fast track in two starts this year. Ran ok in the slop at BEL and then showed speed in a turf sprint. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is in his favor. You have to give him a chance on a fast strip so definitely should be in the verticals and horizontals.