Selections

Aqueduct November 13

The first half of the card looks pretty chalky, but the second half looks more interesting.

Race 1

  • 1 Big Lute – good tactical speed, top figure in the race and Jacobson trains. He’s hitting at an other-worldly 40% at the AQU meet. Although he has an entrymate entered in Artemus Paperboy, there doesn’t seem to be a need for Jacobson to run that horse back in five days, so he is the likely scratch. He may be
  • 5 Mop Head – ran on the AQU dirt 13 days ago after running his last six on the turf and did just fine. Claimed two back by Danny Gargan and he enters him at the price at which he grabbed him.
  • 4 Harlan’s Hello – was well thought of as a three year old in 2011, running in the Dwyer and the Pegasus. After the Dwyer he disappeared until June of his year, ran three races and then dropped out of sight again in July. He comes back with a new trainer, Leslie Hinds, one of the worst trainers on the grounds and the current conditioner of the infamous Eva Lil. It’s hard to imagine Hinds improving the horse, but given the short field it’s possible he’ll finish in the money.

Race 2

  • 1 Melville – isn’t going to be overlooked by many. In his last he lost contact with the field and made a huge sustained move around the turn, actually taking the lead in the stretch. This is typically what I refer to as “overused information.” The pace in that race was killing and no horse up toward the front early had any finish left. This is not to say Melville didn’t run a good race – he did – but he certainly benefitted from a speed duel between his stablemate Coordinate and Sherifco, who wound up last and second last. On the other hand three horses have already come out of that race to win. He’ll be bet and he may be best.
  • 5 Idiosyncratic – Lost to one of the horses that came out of the Melville race in his last out. Thewayyouare is not noted at a turf sire – in fact this horse has a terrible turf rating.  Still, he’s run twice on the lawn and has done ok both times. It doesn’t hurt that Chad Brown is conditioning.
  • 3 Hoon – Irish bred debuted in America at CD and ran a good second. I like that the horse got into the race from an outside post, and really lost all the ground he could around both turns. Tried closing on the winner but couldn’t get there. He should improve in his second American start today.
  • 10 T Sizzle – Looked good at SAR this summer, went to Laurel to break his maiden and couldn’t get it done. Adds blinkers today and perhaps that focuses him enough to make it home first.

Race 3

  • 1 Speedboat Sally – Drops from OC $25K to open $16K claimers. Seven year old mare shows no signs of slowing down, with 3 wins in 8 starts this year. Her task is a little tougher today considering she has spent most of her time at Parx, but she has the figures to top this field.
  • 2 In Kelly’s Defense – Came from the midwest, set the pace in a $32K claimer in September but faded badly. Was taken out of that race by RuRod and that is the primary reason she’s one of the picks here. Rodriguez has a 29% hit rate first off the claim and I have a feeling he was correcting whatever problems he saw after snagging the horse. A return to form makes this one tough.
  • 3 Darnley Bay – Another one who went to Pennsylvania in search of a win but came back empty handed. Takes a serious drop in price, although she’s really done her best running with low level claimers. Cannizzo is overdue.
  • 4 Midnightpositano – has a lot of natural speed and may be the one to catch here. Races against this sort of group have been fair, but I’d like to have seen a better finish. Depends on the track, but not totally outless.

Race 4

  • 5 Island Candy – Finished second in a mile race washed off the turf and was claimed out of that one by Michelle Nevin. Nevin is a solid 26% with first off the claim. Has a win and a second at AQU and two seconds at the distance. I’d call her a good favorite, but certainly not untouchable.
  • 6 Ocean Boulevard – Presser/closer style should work well in this race. Won at a mile in a $25K NW2L, and didn’t run horribly in an open $25K claimer and a $25K NW3 in the slop last two, and this field is not the toughest she’s faced. She was well enough thought of as a two year old to start in a Grade 2. Good chance here.
  • 4 Casual Elegance – ran a good one on the AQU slop but is trained by one of the worst trainers on the grounds, David J. Smith. I debated a long time before including her in the mix. Smith after all was the trainer who got Eva Lil off to a career as a chronic loser. Despite Smith she seems to have speed and has occasionally held it through the stretch. Still playing her with a grain of salt.
  • 9 Kiss Cat – Beat Casual Elegance finishing second in that sloppy race at Aqueduct where the 4 finished third. Not much on a fast track, but could be part of the exotics.

Race 5

  • 6 Starship Pleasant – Jason Servis runner has good tactical speed, and has a lot of seconds and thirds but only one win this year. Probably at the right level to look for a win. Sporadic works for the return off a two month layoff. One second on the AQU turf.
  • 2 Thundering Gale – looking for her third win in a row for Chad Brown. He’s a genius with turf fillies and should have a rail spot early.
  • 7 My One and Only – Low profile connections and hasn’t won a race this year, but has been with this sort most of the year. Don’t prefer the plodding style but she should be closing at the end. More likely part of the exotics.
  • 10 Issheit – Front running sort jumps up the class ladder. Speed is always dangerous although Formulator tells us that only one horse has wired a field. Still, in the money is a real possibility,

Race 6

  • 3 Genre- was wide in her debut on the slop at BEL at today’s distance but closed very well to finish second. Pletcher trains so the 8-1 odds from her debut are a distant memory. Will be bet heavily and may deserve odds on status.
  • 8 Fair Point – third start and puts the blinkers on for McGaughey. Should appreciate the mile distance. There are actually a cadre of horses that all have run similar figures, so I’m looking for separators and the blinkers fit the bill.
  • 2 My Sweet Girl – was far outside on a sloppy BEL track in the same race as Genre. Barclay Tagg has been starting live horses at AQU. Don’t expect her to turn the tables on Genre, but should run a good one.
  • 7 Bonnet Plume – no reason she should be 10-1 on the ML. Showed a little bit of tracking speed but not much finish. Should have gotten a lot out of the race and improvement is not unreasonable.

Race 7

  • 5 Premium – Seems to prefer an easy pace at longer distances but does show a win at a mile. McLaughlin trainee showed a lot more speed with the addition of Lasix. She should be in the mix at the end.
  • 8 Little Journey – three graded races in a row before dropping into an OC $62K and finishing a length and a half behind Premium. Chad Brown usually finds a way to place his horses right and get them to win.
  • 1 Cloture – Broke her maiden in he eighth start but came back two after that to win her NW1X. Seems like McGaughey has her on the right track . One concern – her two wins were at a mile and a quarter. Still, with the right pace and the right ride she has a reasonable chance.
  • 3 Tizallheart – 18 starts, one win, 7 seconds. Looks like a horse with a good chance of finishing in the money.

Race 8

  • 7 Seal Team Four – won a race at a mile at CD in May where he was claimed by Tony Dutrow. He came back in a six furlong sprint three weeks ago but backed up in the stretch. Dutrow adds Lasix today and hopefully that keeps the horse from fading. He has plenty of speed and the last race should do him a world of good.
  • 2 Spider Roll – listed as the 4-5 ML favorite after drubbing a state-bred MSW field on a muddy AQU track 12 days ago. The final time was not spectacular, but given the mucky track a better time can be expected today. Whether or not he’s worth odds on is something we’ll find out today.
  • 4 Myrlanski – Horse hadn’t been seen since April 2012 when he showed up in a state-bred NW1X at seven furlongs on the turf a month ago. Scott Phillip is the trainer and his record is very poor, but the horse could improve enough to grab a minor piece.
  • 3 Adams Note – broke his maiden in his second start and has been stuck at NW1X since. Seems to run evenly and makes his first start on the dirt since his debut race. Has the feel of a trainer looking for something to change the mojo. We’ll see if it works.

Race 9

  • 2 Simple Love – Cuts her claiming price in half in search of a win. Has the best figures in the field and a nice pressing style. Clement is dynamite with sprint to route.
  • 1 Wine Burglar – had a troubled start, winding up at the back of the pack, but made a furious move to get within a length of the leader, ultimately losing the race by two. Has been racing well for a while now and can improve today.
  • 9 Chow Fun – beat a better field at BEL in June then threw in two mediocre races. Bruce Levine drops her substantially in claiming price in search of a win and she should be closing well in the stretch. Not without chances.
  • 3 Lakeview Lady – is the speed of the race and is at the proper level. Exotic possibilities.