I’ve got to point out that in the 10th race yesterday I put Oh So Sinister on top. He went off at an astonishing 80-1 and was a clear second, only a length behind the winner, that also happened to be the favorite. Now while the people who follow me know I am not generally disposed to bet to place, but when you have a horse you legitimately think can vie for the win, you better have place money if he finishes second. In this case you would have been rewarded with a $44.20 place mutuel. Since the winner and the third place horse were also among my top picks, with a little guts you could have also had the exacta ($410) and the trifecta ($4,369). Regardless of who you follow, having an 80-1 shot on top, and then watching the horse just miss is pretty good handicapping.
Race 1
3 Two Weeks Off
6 Steve’s Image
1 Kenyan
Secondary (2, 4)
No great insight in this race. TWO WEEKS OFF should go favorite, but he doesn’t look unbeatable. Best in a field that brims with mediocrity. FORMAL SUMMATION will get his share of action, but I’m even less sold on his prospects.
Race 2
9 Fear
10 Pine Ridge Forest
6 Cuckoo’s Saloon
Secondary (1)
FEAR is listed at 8-1 on the ML. He’s had a productive year and seems to have taken to the BEL turf. At the odds, he’s the one that holds my interest.
Race 3
6 Ornato
3 Buckwellspent
9 Summer Bourbon
Secondary (4)
Not many contenders stick out in this one. ORNATO has only one start, but it was a troubled beginning and he did run evenly around the track. Blinkers off today and maybe a change of fortune.
Race 4
(13 Defiant Honor – Top choice if he draws in)
1 Bogulator
11 Untouch
3 Fear No Evil
Secondary (4, 7)
Race 5
6 Stonetastic
1 Momameamaria
9 Kelsocait
Secondary (5, 8)
The top two voices look best in this one, but KELSOCAIT is a three year old with three wins in her first six starts all at BEL. Despite this being her first stakes, she has the numbers to be competitive. Improving three year olds late in the year are always worth watching, and if she runs her best she could surprise the field.
Race 6
1/1A Holiday Stone/High Promise
7 Cavil
9 Chenal
Secondary (5, 6)
Race 7
(13 Summer Breezing is a contender if he draws in)
2 Wicked Freud
6 Final Chapter
7 Latigo Trail
Secondary (3, 4, 11, 12)
This is a very competitive race as evidenced by the number of contenders. If SUMMER BREEZING draws in, he has to be given consideration. Otherwise, this race is ripe for a juicy payoff.
Race 8
5 Chubby Star
12 Create a Dream
4 Beat the Benchmark
3 Warrior Hall
Secondary (2, 8)
This is another competitive race, but I think CHUBBY STAR is one to watch closely. The Miss Grillo is THE turf stakes at BEL for juvenile fillies prepping for the Breeder’s Cup. She ran well at LRL, but was checked at the start after stumbling in the Miss Grillo, Still, she showed a little interest and is likely to be ignored in the betting. At 12-1 ML she captures my interest.
Race 9
9 Celtic Serenade
1 Brandi’s Diva
10 Persky’s Spirit
Secondary (6, 11)
While BEA BEA is listed at 2-1, I think she’s had plenty of chances and is a horrible bet at the odds. On the other hand CELTIC SERENADE has only two lifetime starts (technically), one on the turf and that represented an improvement for her. She obviously needed her last and should jump forward with the race under her belt. Should go off at good odds.
Oiseau de Guerre has been getting bet off the board but disappointed in his first two starts. He’ll be the favorite again, especially considering he was probably over his head in the Pilgrim. He’ll be dangerous, but he’s a tentative favorite for me. Dream Trip ran an interesting race in his debut. He broke at the back of the pack. The early pace was slow, but that second fraction was reasonable and he made a move into the pace during the second fraction, picking up 4 lengths into a 24.88 fraction. He then dropped a length or so, and then made another move in the stretch. Given a weak favorite, and 12-1 ML odds, this one is worth a look. Concomitant is the Chad Brown trainee and that is enough to put the horse in the list of contenders.
Race 2
4 Aktabantay
5 Irish Prayer
2 Canarsie Kid
Secondary (1)
Irish Prayer is listed at 15-1 on the ML and to me he looks like a primary contender. He began his career in state-bred races, finally broke his maiden, ran in a couple of NW1X races, winning one, and ran well in an open $50K claimer. He drops into a $35K NW3L and off his best race he should be competitive.
Race 3
4 Micozzi
7 Valhalla
2 Lead Astray
Secondary (1, 5)
Race 4
4 Innovative Idea
2 Lewis Bay
2 Eskenformoney
Lewis Bay should be the favorite here, but she is certainly not a lock. I’m going to look in a different place, and center in on Innovative Idea. She’s been primarily with Graded horses this year, and seems to be at the top of her game. Both horses should be vying up front, and I expect Innovative Idea to have the better speed. If I get the ML odds difference, she gets the closest look for me.
Race 5
12 Commend
8 Completely Bonkers
2 Ross J Dawg
Secondary (5, 6, 7, 11)
As you can tell, while Commend looks like the best horse in the race, there are far too many contenders to hand the race to the favorite. Completely Bonkers interests me though. He just won a $50K starter with a competitive number, and comes back in a NW1X. No reason I can see that he should be 15-1, and if he stays at high odds he’s the one I’ll focus on.
Race 6
6 Heaven is Waiting
2 Frostmourne
5 Harlan’s Harmony
7 Royal by Nature
First four choices – clearly no insight here.
Race 7
8 Big Handsome
5 Adonis Creed
9 Robbins
Secondary (1, 2, 6)
Almost all the horses have some sort of chance in this race. Perhaps the interesting horse is Kieran McLaughlin’s Adonis Creed. I like the workout pattern and I like that Irad takes the mount.
Race 8
9 Leaveematthegate
11 Ordinaire
1 Barton Holt
Secondary (3, 4, 8)
Again I think there are a lot of possibilities in this race and I’m vowing not to fall hard for any horse in this race. Leaveematthegate seems a better horse on the turf and at 8-1 ML could be the value.
Race 9
6 Stallwalkin’ Dude
4 Economic Model
8 Ami’s Flatter
Secondary (2, 13)
This is an interesting renewal of the Bold Ruler. the two top choices will be tough in this race, with Stallwalkin’ Dude being the front-running type and Economic Model coming at the end. There are a lot of horses listed at long odds on the ML, but I just see the winner coming from the five I have listed. I wanted to find a way to put Touchofstarquality in the top three. He has been competitive in every race since 2014, loves BEL, and has a won in a one turn mile, very similar to today’s race. He would not be a shock if he came home on top.
Race 10
(13 Catapult Jack – AE)
3 Oh So Sinister
9 Colonel Andy
11 Great Skellig
6 Slapstick
Good luck in the last. The obvious contenders are going to be on everyone’s radar, but that doesn’t mean one of the lesser horses can’t run a big one. My choice for the dark horse is Oh So Sinister at 30-1 on the ML. He ran a very good race at SAR at this price, jumped up into straight maidens. It seems clear that at MSW he’s over his head, but he’s going to be far more competitive at the MCL level. The turf is a small concern, but he’s got some experience there. Admittedly it’s a bit of a stab, but it’s also a wide open race and the time to take the stab.
NEWMAN is likely to go favorite off the strength of his race against PRACTICAL JOKER, but I’m going to look for a little more value and I would say that is OUTRUN. This second time starter for Todd Pletcher adds blinkers in an effort to focus his speed. Look at the running line where he was shuffled well back in the stretch, losing all chance, but rallying to only lose by 2 1/2 and galloping out strongly. He should be in a much better spot today. He should easily take to the mile distance.
Race 2
8 Gran the Man
1/1A Liberal Spin/Wireless Future
10 Creaky Circuit
Secondary (3, 8)
Race 3
2 Theory
1 Moves Like Ali
4 Reckling
Race 4
6 Southern Gentleman
12 Irish Filibuster
8 Gait to Heaven
Secondary (1, 10, 11)
This is a fairly wide open race. While IRISH FILIBUSTER has the top figures and is dropping from MSW he’s been off since February, which makes him vulnerable. SOUTHERN GENTLEMAN is the interesting horse in this race for me. While he’s been knocking around with MCL for a while, he’s only run two turf races (his last two races) and they were his best two races. In his last he showed good speed despite a troubled start and finished with a lifetime top. That figure makes him competitive with others and at 20-1 odds he could be huge value.
Race 5
10 Mr Curiosity
5 Made of Steel
1 Peculiar Sensation
Secondary (2, 8)
Race 6
5 Hothersal
6 Tombelaine
4 Dowse’s Beach
2 Plainview
Secondary (1, 7, 10)
Lots of competitors in this race, but I like the top two quite a bit. HOTHERSAL looks fairly obvious in here, coming off a series of Graded races. Jason Servis has been having a good BEL meet. The potential value horse is Chad Brown’s TOMBELAINE. In Ireland he was second in two Group races, won a minor stakes, and ran well in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. In his debut race in the states he was pinched back at the start and never really got into the race. Chad Brown is 25% off the long layoff, Castellano takes the mount, and I think we’ll see an improved run today.
Race 7
6 Stonecoldfox
4 Easy Way Out
7 The Eagle is Gone
Secondary (1, 3)
Race 8
4 Ancient Secret
12 She Doesn’t Mind
2 Believe in Bertie
Secondary (3, 7, 8, 9, 11)
I could have made a case for a number of horses in this race. I went with the solid choice, ANCIENT SECRET, winer of the G2 Lake George, and her stablemate SHE DOESN’T MIND, an improving runner for Chad Brown.The interesting horse is BELIEVE IN BERTIE who comes off a strong second place finish at Indiana Grand. Admittedly she is in with a tougher group today, but she had the best pace figure off her last and runs a perfect distance for her speedy running style. Trainer Brad Cox is an amazing 10 of 11 in the money at this BEL meet. At 10-1 morning line she could lead to a very lucrative collection.
