Oiseau de Guerre has been getting bet off the board but disappointed in his first two starts. He’ll be the favorite again, especially considering he was probably over his head in the Pilgrim. He’ll be dangerous, but he’s a tentative favorite for me. Dream Trip ran an interesting race in his debut. He broke at the back of the pack. The early pace was slow, but that second fraction was reasonable and he made a move into the pace during the second fraction, picking up 4 lengths into a 24.88 fraction. He then dropped a length or so, and then made another move in the stretch. Given a weak favorite, and 12-1 ML odds, this one is worth a look. Concomitant is the Chad Brown trainee and that is enough to put the horse in the list of contenders.
Race 2
4 Aktabantay
5 Irish Prayer
2 Canarsie Kid
Secondary (1)
Irish Prayer is listed at 15-1 on the ML and to me he looks like a primary contender. He began his career in state-bred races, finally broke his maiden, ran in a couple of NW1X races, winning one, and ran well in an open $50K claimer. He drops into a $35K NW3L and off his best race he should be competitive.
Race 3
4 Micozzi
7 Valhalla
2 Lead Astray
Secondary (1, 5)
Race 4
4 Innovative Idea
2 Lewis Bay
2 Eskenformoney
Lewis Bay should be the favorite here, but she is certainly not a lock. I’m going to look in a different place, and center in on Innovative Idea. She’s been primarily with Graded horses this year, and seems to be at the top of her game. Both horses should be vying up front, and I expect Innovative Idea to have the better speed. If I get the ML odds difference, she gets the closest look for me.
Race 5
12 Commend
8 Completely Bonkers
2 Ross J Dawg
Secondary (5, 6, 7, 11)
As you can tell, while Commend looks like the best horse in the race, there are far too many contenders to hand the race to the favorite. Completely Bonkers interests me though. He just won a $50K starter with a competitive number, and comes back in a NW1X. No reason I can see that he should be 15-1, and if he stays at high odds he’s the one I’ll focus on.
Race 6
6 Heaven is Waiting
2 Frostmourne
5 Harlan’s Harmony
7 Royal by Nature
First four choices – clearly no insight here.
Race 7
8 Big Handsome
5 Adonis Creed
9 Robbins
Secondary (1, 2, 6)
Almost all the horses have some sort of chance in this race. Perhaps the interesting horse is Kieran McLaughlin’s Adonis Creed. I like the workout pattern and I like that Irad takes the mount.
Race 8
9 Leaveematthegate
11 Ordinaire
1 Barton Holt
Secondary (3, 4, 8)
Again I think there are a lot of possibilities in this race and I’m vowing not to fall hard for any horse in this race. Leaveematthegate seems a better horse on the turf and at 8-1 ML could be the value.
Race 9
6 Stallwalkin’ Dude
4 Economic Model
8 Ami’s Flatter
Secondary (2, 13)
This is an interesting renewal of the Bold Ruler. the two top choices will be tough in this race, with Stallwalkin’ Dude being the front-running type and Economic Model coming at the end. There are a lot of horses listed at long odds on the ML, but I just see the winner coming from the five I have listed. I wanted to find a way to put Touchofstarquality in the top three. He has been competitive in every race since 2014, loves BEL, and has a won in a one turn mile, very similar to today’s race. He would not be a shock if he came home on top.
Race 10
(13 Catapult Jack – AE)
3 Oh So Sinister
9 Colonel Andy
11 Great Skellig
6 Slapstick
Good luck in the last. The obvious contenders are going to be on everyone’s radar, but that doesn’t mean one of the lesser horses can’t run a big one. My choice for the dark horse is Oh So Sinister at 30-1 on the ML. He ran a very good race at SAR at this price, jumped up into straight maidens. It seems clear that at MSW he’s over his head, but he’s going to be far more competitive at the MCL level. The turf is a small concern, but he’s got some experience there. Admittedly it’s a bit of a stab, but it’s also a wide open race and the time to take the stab.
