I’ll explain up front that I have a varsity scrimmage I’m working early tomorrow so I won’t have an opportunity to adjust picks for off the turf or scratches. Unlike my usual pattern where I post about half an hour before post time, I’ll be posting Friday night, well before we know changes at NYRA. In the turf races I haven’t written up a detailed analysis — instead I just gave picks for the turf and dirt– but those are the picks I would have elaborated on either way, depending on scratches. I’ll be back about post time, and at that point I’ll see about adjusting the later races. In any case, take the turf races for what they are worth. By the way, you should always feel free to tweet me if you are wondering about my thinking on any particular horse.

Race 1

• 1 Forty Nine Karats – I like four things about the horse. He adds Lasix, although if you watch his last race I don’t think bleeding had anything to do with the finish; he got a fast work 7 days ago; he only has one start so improvement is possible; and he switches from turf to dirt where he is MUCH better bred. He’s 12-1 and the two horses that are favorites on the ML are not world beaters.
• 8 Awesome Lute – Flubbed when trying the turf in a MSW last out, but before that he ran ok in two MCL $40K races. Although he is listed at 2-1 ML I don’t see him as a lock, but in this group he doesn’t have a lot of competition.
• 5 Bad to the Road – five starts, two thirds and the same mediocre figures as a couple of the other starters. He may actually be the most likely horse to set the pace, although he’s not exactly a speedball. 8-5 on the ML is hard to take, but he may have to find his way onto your horizontal tickets.
• 4 Show of Force – first timer for Schettino has decent works and the trainer is fair with debut horses, a little better with first time maiden claimers. We’ll see how good he is today.

Race 2

• 1 Tiz Elusive – Tiznow first timer for Gary Contessa has an interesting set of works. Started with some fast moves at the Training Center at Copper Crowned in Louisiana, got a couple of works to build bottom at AQU and BEL, and had a nice breeze ten days ago. Contessa is only fair with firsters but this might be one of the successful ones.
• 6 Hythe Gardens – McPeek also just fair with younger horses. I’d like to see a few longer works, but seems to have been building the horse for speed. He’s bred beautifully for the distance so maybe the workout pattern won’t be a hinderance.
• 2 Channel of Love – has had the misfortune of two off tracks and puts the blinkers on today. I’ll give him another shot on the fast track today.

Race 3

• 8 Attractive Ride – old campaigner still giving the youngsters a run for their money. David Cannizzo is training now and puts the blinkers on, although he doesn’t look like he needs focus. He’s got some very nice back figures – I think you excuse the last one on the slop. Saez has to give the right ride and that is not a sure thing.
• 7 Love To Run – racing well lately. There are a lot of horses with a preference to run to the front, so he may have some trouble getting a good tracking spot
• 1 Patriot’s Voyage – another speedster who was 3 of 4 last year and only has one start in March this year. Baffert seemed to have the horse until June or so when David Jacobson was able to purchase the horse. Obviously Baffert likes to work his horses quick and Jacobson has just given the horse one slow work since June, which is why he’s my third choice.
• 6 Volastic – can track and that makes him one of the few in this race. He should get a decent tracking sport and seems to like finishing in the money.

Race 4

On the Turf: 4-3-9-2

On the Main: 16-9-15-3

Race 5

• 6 Sunny Desert – was dominant in 2013 at AQU in these state bred stakes. She’s had four races this year with a second and a third, and it is of concern that her best figures were on sloppy tracks, but she’s had plenty of success on fast tracks. She should like the distance – she’s one for one lifetime. At 3-1 ML she’s a fair bet.
• 10 Storied Lady – has been running with these sorts all year. Likes to come from farther back and seems more comfortable at route distances. Does have a second at the distance and certainly has good enough figures to make it her day.
• 2 Uncle Southern – Six furlong and wet track winner has no experience at the distance, although her last race on the mud at FL was a clunker. Somewhat ambiguous but I like that she seems to give an effort every time.
• 5 Champagne Ruby – another that runs in this company regularly. Won the Niagara at FL and actually ran pretty well in the Arctic Queen, but it does appear that 7 furlongs might be the edge of her ability.

Race 6

• 5 Monster Mash – has a great figure off his last win, although it was on a muddy track. Of course every horse that raced at BEL seems to have recent races on wet tracks. Has a second at AQU. Will have to press since some better speed is signed on. Englehart has a high percentage with horses coming off a win and Jose Ortiz stays for the trip.
• 8 Honor Code – It may have been silly not to put him on top, considering he was in the conversation about the Kentucky Derby late last year. He was a close second in the Champagne and won the Remsen. Something happened because he was off until March and came back in an open allowance where he was drubbed by Social Inclusion, a pretty talented horse on his own. He got the comment “hard to load” which could have explained why he gave it up in the lane. He’s probably better meant for longer distances, and I always have a bit of discomfort when a horse comes out at the wrong distance in a lower level allowance – could be some exercise or he could win in a romp. Have to use but he should get overbet.
• 7 Pure Sensation – Puts the blinkers on for Christophe Clement, although he doesn’t seem to need focus – he generally is up with the leaders. He did run in the Woody Stephens, which was one of the fastest three year old races of the year, and actually only finished 8 lengths behind HOY candidate Bayern. Has been given a short break and has a good workout pattern, seemingly an attempt to give him more bottom. I have a feeling Clement has something up his sleeve with this one.
• 1 Royal Currier – claimed last out for $32K by Michelle Nevin but before that race had been in some minor stakes with mixed success. 3 wins in six starts this year – I like horses that like to finish in front. At 12-1 he’s got a legitimate shot and could make your horizontals and verticals.

Race 7

On the Turf: 8-4-9-10

On the Main: 6-1a-14-12

Race 8

• 1 West Hills Giant – no wins in five starts this year, but he has been with this sort most of the year and actually finished second in this race last November. Has the best figures in the group. Not enamored with the fact he’ll have to come from near the back of the pack, but still looks best overall.
• 3 John’s Island – Another plodder with good figures. He’s been with some good horses, having run fourth in the Amsterdam. He’s had trouble, some of his own making, in his last three. Bumped at the break, wide around the turn. But he has a win in one start at AQU and did run ok in the Mike Lee at this distance. Fast work last out tells me Jerkens might be looking to get the horse a better placement this time.
• 4 Loki’s Vengeance – Hushion has been putting a lot of live horses on the track at AQU. Laid this one off from the end of May to late October where he ran third after being herded by Glickman all the way through the stretch. It was a good first off a layoff and Hushion is 27% with second time off a break. Has a lot of outs in this race.
• 9 Geaux Mets – Came out of the same race as Loki’s Vengeance but it’s usually not a good idea to ignore Jacobson. Has run a lot better figures than his last two indicate. Two back he was pretty much taken out at the start, but really didn’t have an excuse in his last. Got the usual maintenance work and it’s reasonable to expect better today.

Race 9

On the Turf: 4-1-6-8

On the Main: 14-1a-7-13