This last weekend has a number of very competitive races, and I’ll be walking to the windows very carefully in most of the races.

You may have noticed a slight change in the format of the selections. I’m still giving out the top three picks, but I have added secondary picks. This is mainly to give people interested in the verticals some options in the back holes. It also gives people looking to go deep in the horizontals some other considerations.

Race 1.  E Warfare ran well on a sloppy SAR track a month ago, and came back in a turf sprint where she didn’t break sharply but still showed some interest. Puts blinkers on today and gets a new rider in Irad Ortiz. Should be right on the lead and with a good break may be hard to catch. Sea Pebble has three seconds in a row with one of them her only start on the turf. Hard trying horse should be close up early. Uptown Liza ran a new top last out and seems to have taken well to the turf.  Primary 3-9-11  Secondary (7, 10)

Race 2.  This is a really competitive field. Gentrify didn’t appear to care for the turf last out but prior to that he was competitive with horses slightly below this group. Low key trainer is a concern, but the 6-1 odds create some interest. Money Changer finished second at this level last out and has enough speed to get a decent spot on the inside. Pletcher won’t give up the training title without a fight. Roll Tide Roll jumps up off a win for $25K. Servis is 23% second off the claim. Primary 3-1-8  Secondary (5, 6, 7, 9)

Race 3.  Apartfromthecrowd goes for Brown/Castellano and while Gio Ponti progeny have not shown the same ability their sire showed on the turf, the trainer/jockey combo is high percentage with first timers on the turf. Frostmourne is a Speightstown and his progeny are very good in their maiden starts.  He’s Cheeky goes first time for RuRod who is 20% with debut horses.  Primary 3-5-6  Secondary (7)

Race 4.  Tapwrit was sold for $1.2 million as a yearling and has solid connections in his corner. Have to assume he’s in to run. Westwood has a good workout pattern going into this one. Bernardini progeny are usually excellent at the sprint distances. South Sea goes second time for Bill Mott. Mott is not known for his skill with first time starters, but this one ran pretty well.  Primary 3-9-4  Secondary (2, 7, 8) 

Race 5.  This is looking like an “all” race unless Camelot Kitten is as good as the ML odds look. He does seem to be the class of the race with pretty much nothing but graded races in his past performances. Have to give him top billing, but he’s not miles ahead of the others in here. Strike MIdnight just missed to the top choice in the Hall of Fame. Castellano goes elsewhere today so Manny Franco picks up the mount. Isotherm was racing with the best juveniles last year and gets a good jockey switch to Johnny V today.  Primary 2-4-6  Secondary (1, 3, 5)

Race 6.  Changewilldoyagood ran a lifetime top last out in a race with Copingaway who is running in the Saranac, the previous race. Depending on how that one runs you may want to upgrade or downgrade the choice here. Request generally runs longer distances, but has had success at today’s trip. Third start off the layoff today. Nonna’s Boy looks like the speed of the field but he did look good in the Oceanport and the first two in that race were legitimate stakes runners. I like the speed angle.  Primary 3-8-10  Secondary (6)

Race 7.  Kahramani had trouble at the break last out but still showed some interest. Best figure of the horses that have raced. Outrun goes first time for Pletcher/Velasquez and given Johnny V opts for this one he may be the they one TAP thinks might have a brighter future. Casses Story has looked good in his previous starts, but he needs to make it home first soon. Primary 1-3-8  Secondary (4) 

Race 8.  Another race full of contenders. New York Chrome is riding a three race win streak and is one of a number of horses with competitive numbers. Beeks looks like he should be dueling up front and with some improvement he’s in the mix at good odds. Neolithic came off an eight month vacation to run a good second and he certainly needed the race. His figure really improved from last year and that may propel him to the top of this field. Primary 9-4-10  Secondary (1, 8, 12, 13)

Race 9.  The Spinaway come up with a competitive field headed by the Pletcher/Velasquez trainee Cherry Lodge. She ran a big number first time out and Johnny V opted to ride her instead of Sweet Loretta. Runway Doll won by a city block in the slop last out but she is a legitimate contender here. Sweet Loretta, the other Pletcher runner has a win in the Schuylerville and given she comes from slightly off the pace, the stretch out should be in her favor.  Primary 5-3-1  Secondary (6)

Race 10.  Frosted is in an amazing funk this summer and there is no reason to believe he is coming to the end of the run. Trying to beat him may be futile, but if he happens to falter, the horizontals will be big overpays. Primary 3  Secondary (1, 4, 6, 9)

Race 11.  Guapaza is on a two race win streak and recently won the Waya. She’ll be the favorite, but is a must use in the horizontals. Photo Call had the lead in the Waya before faltering, but she’s been reliable in these races. At 10-1 ML she’s in the mix for me. Itsonlyactingdad comes off a win in the G3 Matchmaker and always seems to be in the mix at the end.  Primary 3-2-8  Secondary (1, 6, 10)

Race 12.  Really wide open affair as you can tell from the ML odds line. I’m going away from the ML favorite with Hockey School, Blackout, and Gio’s Calling.  Primary 2-9-10  Secondary (1, 3, 4, 5)

Race 1.  The Lost Tigress ships in from FL although she’s been here before and has a second to show for it. She’s got plenty of natural speed and she rarely runs a bad race. Chickaletta is on a two race win streak including her last one at SAR. Seems to have stayed in good condition this year. Aix En Provence has a lot of starts but she’s still running well.  Primary 4-3-1  Secondary (7)

Race 2.  Munchkin Money is likely to go favorite on the strength of being trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano. She improved when dropped into the MCL ranks last out and really had no place to run in the stretch. Sneaky Fudge Face has been getting better with each start and last out ran well to the stretch. Weekend Hottie has a lot of thirds and may be useful in the verticals.  10-7-8

Race 3.  Sly Tom was claimed last time by Joe Sharp who has had a decent SAR meet. The blinkers go on today and Sharp is 14% with the move. Disard his last and prior to that he has the top figure. Dujac makes his 2016 debut for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Last year he ran well and his three year old figures suggest he’s competive here Matador ran ok on the dirt last out but in his prior race he ran competitively on the turf.  Primary 5-6-7  Secondary (1, 4, 9)

Race 4. Kenyan improved when dropped into the MCL ranks and takes another tumble down the ladder today. Good rider switch to Jose Ortiz. Buckwellspent ran his best career race last out on the SAR dirt. Fits well in this group. Celtic Scout moves back to the dirt and turns back in distance. Good chance based on dirt figures.  Primary 9-1-5  Secondary (2)

Race 5.  Luckystrikedelcoco is much better placed in this race and Castellano taking the mount is a positive. Marabea has been running consistently and is making a big drop in price today. Expect him to be running in the stretch. Electro Peg ran well when placed on the SAR turf. Off his best figure he’s competitive here. Primary 4-6-7  Secondary (2, 9)

Race 6. This is a wide open affair and it’s best to go with the higher priced horses with top two year old trainers. That makes the choices Black Canary, K J Warrior, and Orechchiette. Primary 7-9-4  Secondary (1, 2)

Race 7. Very competitive race and I’m going with First Service and Wonder Gal to make the exacta. The latter is the class of the field and the only thing keeping her from going odds on is is that she’s making her 2016 debut. If Wonder Gal runs to her 2015 form she may be hard to beat. Primary 1-2  Secondary (3)

Race 8.  Totally wide open race. Two Pump ran a good race at this distance on the turf early in the meet for a much higher price. She flopped in her subsequent try on the dirt, but if she runs to that earlier effort she’s competitive. Goodbye Sorrow ran a lifetime top while finishing second at this distance. She’s got plenty of speed and should have the shortest route to the wire. Sunrise Kitty has been in the mix pretty much every race and has a second and third in three tries on the SAR turf. Primary 3-9-7

Race 9.  I’m inclined to consider this an “all” race since every horse has a chance. A look at the ML shows no horse is greater than 5-1. Royal Posse is the horse to beat. He won the Alydar at SAR and ran a field topping figure doing so. Crackerjack Jones and Wake Up in Malibu should be the horses dueling up front and if both of them can avoid trying to outrun the other they have real chances. Ostrolenka has been close in both of his SAR races and will be trying the 9 furlong distance for the second time. He could also be a pace factor. Good Luck Gus may be the value in the race. There should be plenty of speed for him to run at, and while his figures are not at the level of some others, he has good outs given the pace scenario.  Primary 3-4  Secondary (1, 2, 5)

Race 10.  With two of the AE’s getting into the race the choices changed. Rediscover has shown a lot of speed at the MSW level and should benefit from the shift to MCL. The horse to his inside, He’s One Wild Dude, had a troubled start last out, but if you put a line through that race the race before that he ran a competitive race. At 15-1 he interests me a lot. Twenty Four Seven moves over to the Danny Gargan barn and he has been excellent with new charges. Another with good outs at the odds. Astute Warrior has been running longer but looks strong for Eddie Kenneally who has had good success at the meet with limited starters.  Primary 10-11-1-4  Secondary ( 5, 7, 13)

Race 2.  Fairly competitive race. Sweetrayofsunshine looks fairly strong on paper. She was close in a 6F event on Aug 10 in the slop at SAR and makes a slight drop in price today. Irad looks like he opted for Sun and Moon, but Geroux should be a capable replacement. The rest of the horses look about the same to me. Miss Amalita was in that same Aug 10 race and considering she was taking a lot of backsplash ran a pretty good race. She should be decent value today.  Da Wildcat Girl took some time off after Belmont but she is an honest runner and has had success at SAR.  Primary 2-6-7  Secondary (1, 3, 4)

Race 3. A few horses could be winners here, but I’m giving Warranty the nod. She’s dropping from MSW to the claiming ranks and is cutting back in distance, something that shouldn’t hurt her chances. Her figures are not dominating, but Chad Brown as trainer gives her an edge. Smile Big is the other Chad Brown horse. She just missed at a lower level last out and while her figures are a little low for the group, I think she’s got a real chance.  French Dressing ran well at this level at SAR, and while 0 for 17 is usually a DQ, I like her in the verticals at 15-1 ML.  Primary 3-2-7   Secondary (1, 4)

Race 4.  Pretty straightforward race. T R Crew, Singleton and Roustabout stick out for me. 1-4-6

Race 5. Lots of prospects here. Verbouwen exits a G3 race where she lost her best chance when she steadied. Looks good in this spot. Grey Stark comes off a win in an OC $80K race and has leading trainer Chad Brown in her corner. Rachel Wall has the figures to be a factor here and came off a nice second at the longer route distance last out.  Primary 4-5-3  Secondary (1, 6, 7)

 Race 6.  Lots of horses entered but I’m not seeing a lot of contenders. Bareeqa was claimed last out by Danny Gargan who is having a good 2016. Perhaps the change in scenery puts her over the top. Love Blues is coming off a short vacation and has enough speed to get a good spot from the rail. Octacto switches barns and the consistency of her figures is a real positive. Primary 8-1-3  Secondary (5, 7)

Race 7. Another competitive affair. Hudson River Gal gets the nod off her strong second last out in her first with winners. Winning rider Castellano gets back aboard. Khaleesi Kat comes out of the same race, but given it was her first in nine months improvement is likely. Indygita is the third horse coming out of that race. She’s shown her competitiveness and can’t be discounted here. Primary 3-10-5  Secondary (2, 8)

Race 8.  Another race where a few of the horses have common preps. Know It All Anna ran well a month ago and cuts back a half furlong in distance. One concern – regular rider Castellano jumps over to the 3. So You Say is the second runner out of a common race with the top choice. It was his first race of the year and improvement is likely. Casual Cocktail beat the top choice last out and would be no surprise in the winner’s circle.  Primary 6-4-1  Secondary (2, 3, 5, 7)

Race 9.  The P G Johnson is one of the important preps leading up to the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Make no mistake. These are good fillies and they will all be trying hard to win. Lady Joan has improved with each start and is adding distance today. That shouldn’t be a problem given her breeding. Right now looks like the value. Coasted has already won at the distance in impressive fashion. She’ll likely be the favorite and given her last start she will be deserving. Noble Ready goes for Clement and gets a switch to Irad. That combo is 25% at this meet. They all have similar figures, so expect a good race.  Primary 6-4-3  Secondary (2, 7)

Race 10.  Wide open race. If the two AEs Haul Anchor and Dab make it in they would be the choices. Otherwise, Dance Graze, Can You Diggit, and Jupiter Rising look like the most likely Primary 9-2-5 with 1A and 2B

Race 2.  Pontastic goes for new trainer RuRod. The horse ran well at CD in July and has been working steadily for his return. Tepid choice.  The Chad Brown entry is likely to go favorite. Musical Comedy looks to be the better of the two. Villa has had a lot of starts and seems more likely for the verticals.  6-1/1A-5

Race 3.  Catapult Jack lost his rider last out but prior to that he showed some talent when placed first time on the turf. Should be good odds at post time. Stony Brook has a lot of positives in this race. He faced a decent group of straight maidens at MTH. He probably lost any real chance because he was fractious at the gate, but Jason Servis has had some time to straighten him out.  Servis is 21% with his 2nd time starters and 40% at this meet when riding Irad. Colonel Andy starts for new trainer Thomas Morely. He has a couple of decent starts on the turf.  Primary 2-3-4  Secondary (1, 8, 10)

Race 4.  Lucky Lotto takes a pretty good drop today. His last race was disappointing, but prior to that he had been competitive with better. Perhaps a bit chancey, but may prove to be value. Cousin Stephen makes a huge drop in class off his 2016 debut which wasn’t that bad. If he improves he’s best in the race. Seventhfleethumor has potential in the verticals.  Primary 1-5-4  Secondary (2, 3, 6)

Race 5.  Lots of contenders in this race. I’m leaning toward Don’t Be So Salty who drops for Linda Rice. I’m a little leery about taking a horse that has run in G3 races and placing him at $25K but if he is right he is the most likely winner. Latigo Trail came out running in 2016 with a win and should be well recovered for this one. Likely front runner.  Primary 10-5-9  Secondary (1, 2, 7)

Race 6.  Another wide open race. Uncharted Course was caught flat footed on the slop last out but has a second on the SAR dirt. Other than the sloppy race he hadn’t really run a bad one for 10 months, and at hi best he’s much faster than anything else in here. Sidearm ships in from LS for new trainer Tom Amoss. Amoss has brought some live ones to the Spa with 33% in the money at the meet, and the horse has 2 wins in three starts on the SAR dirt. Comandante has the best last race figure and should be prompting the pace early.  Primary 6-4-3  Secondary (5)

Race 7.  Lots of contenders here and with the 14 getting into the race we can add one more contender. Circus Performer looks strong in this field. He adds blinkers and picks up Javier as his new rider. He had a troubled start last out but still managed to get into the race. The drop in price is definitely in his favor. Late Night Work has run well since arriving from England, finally breaking his maiden two back and running well in his first with winners. Figures say he is competitive here. Gunlock adds blinkers today and looks well positioned for the verticals.  Primary 10-6-3. Secondary  (2, 7, 9, 14)

Race 8.  Barrel of Dreams won last out with better horses and should be part of the early pace. Already has a win this year at SAR and Charlton Baker has been having a great meet. Table for Six broke slowly last out but was rushing at the end. In the prior race she also had trouble before managing to finish third. If Javier can get her out of the gate and keep her clear of problems she has a large chance. Weather Girl has been off a month and a half but should be in good condition for this run.  Primary 3-7-4  Secondary (6, 9, 10)

Race 9.   Not a particularly tricky race. The favorites, Keep Quiet, Made You Look, Ardmore Bay and My Bo Chop look best in this field. 7-2-4-3

Race 10. Wide open affair. I am using Honor Way, Late Night Kiss, Forres Lilly and Boa Sorte.  4-7-10-1

Unfortunately you just get the numbers today (before scratches) since today is the anniversary of my birth. While I had time to handicap early, with partying I had no time to do a detailed write-up. So I’ll know how many of you read the blog by how many birthday wishes I get! And I won’t specifically say anything about age, but when I was born Eisenhower was president.

Race 1.  3-6-1

Race 2.  4-2-8-6

Race 3.  3-2-4

Race 4.  3-5-8

Race 5.  1/1A-3-5

Race 6.  8-4-7-6

Race 7.  Primary 5-1-9  Secondary (2, 4, 10)

Race 8.  3-6-4-1

Race 9.  Primary 2-10-7  Secondary (3, 6)

Race 10.  Primary 10-7-1  Secondary (2, 3, 8)

Race 11.  Primary 1-8-4  [If 11, 12, or 14 draw in from the AE list they would be on the contenders list]

Travers Day. The culmination of the Saratoga season, which has been very good to me again. With 13 races no analysis on the early events, just the stakes.

Race 1.  Primary 2-3-1  Secondary (4, 10)

Race 2.  Primary 10-1-11  Secondary (2, 3, 6, 8)

Race 3.  Primary 4-1A-2  Secondary (3, 6)

Race 4,  Primary 10-3-5-7 Secondary (1, 8)

Race 5. Primary 10-5-6  Secondary (3, 7, 8)

Race 6.  2-5-1

This edition of the Personal Ensign looks like it is Curalina’s to lose. She had a smashing victory in the Shuvee and has had good success at SAR. She hasn’t run in anything but Grade 1’s since June 2015 and her figures are very consistent. Should be in a good spot turning for home. Cavorting looks like the major competition. She’s a multiple Grade 1 winner and is three of three at SAR. Although it may look like a two horse race, I’m a Chatterbox can’t be discounted. The winner of the G1 Delaware handicap last out ran a lifetime top in that race and a figure that puts her in the vicinity of Curalina. Forever Unbridled was second to Cavorting in the Ogden Phipps and in a five horse field she can’t be thrown out of the verticals. Paid Up Subscriber may be the speed in this field but just doesn’t look as accomplished as the others.

Race 7.  9-2-8-3

This is a good renewal of the Ballerina. Carina Mia gets the slight nod in this version. She was second to the powerful Songbird in her last but before that was an impressive winner in the 8 Belles and the Acorn. She has a nice stalking style and has the top last out figure. By the Moon may be the value play in this race. She beat Wavell Avenue in the Bed O Roses showing an impressive turn of foot coming out of the turn. Ortiz opts to ride the 3, but the switch to Castellano isn’t a downgrade at all. Wavell Avenue came out of the Bed  O Roses to win the Shine Again at SAR in an excellent time. She likes the track with two wins in three tries. Off her best she’s a prime contender. Paulassilverlining has been competitive in G2 and G3 events. She may be a half step below the choices in this race but she may be part of the early pace picture.

Race 8.  Primary 2-1-6-13  Secondary (3, 8)

The King’s Bishop is one of the most anticipated races of the season. Lots of contenders in here. Fish Trappe Road seems perfect for the 7F distance. He comes off a win in the Dwyer around one turn and looks to have developed quite a bit since his two year old and early three year old seasons. At 8-1 ML he’s worth a long look. Economic Model was second in the Dwyer and adds blinkers today. Chad Brown is 22% with that move. Irad Ortiz opts to stay with the horse. The most interesting horse is Mohaymen, especially at 5-1 ML. He was up against it in the Jim Dandy here a month ago after stumbling at the start, but he is still one of the quality three year olds in training. He showed he could negotiate the one turn sprint in his first two starts, and showed a good tracking style since. Based on breeding, this distance should be to his liking. Junior has to break the horse cleanly today and get a good attacking spot. He has every right to win this race. Defrong ships in for Bob Baffert and gets a nod on that basis. Plus, his last race figure thoroughly tops the field.  Summer Revolution is one of those young horses that can jump up and surprise. Mind Your Biscuits was a solid winner of the Amsterdam and can’t be dismissed out of hand.

Race 9.  Primary 11-8-1  Secondary (2, 9)

The two primary contenders are A.P. Indian and Marking. The former is on a three race winning streak including the 7FBelmont Sprint. He has a win on the SAR dirt. The latter was coming at the winner in the Belmont Sprint, losing by only a head. He looks recovered from the trip to Dubai and I like the switch to Rosario for this run. Stallwalkin‘ Dude comes off an good win in the Tale of the Cat at SAR. He loves the track and looks like he is at the top of his form cycle. Catalina Red comes off a series of Graded efforts including a win at this distance at CD. The figures say he is a main contender with this group. Chief Lion was second in the Tale of the Cat after lugging out with the lead in the stretch. Can’t be dismissed out of hand. Ready for Rye looks like he has some potential for the verticals.

Race 10.  Primary 6  Secondary ( 1, 2, 4)

Not a lot of need to go deep in this race. Flintshire is the best turf horse running in America and unless something strange happens he should be a short-priced winner. If you feel inclined to go deep, Grand Tito, Money Multiplier and Twilight Eclipse are the most likely upsetters.

Race 11.  Primary 4-7-8  Secondary(2, 10, 14)

The Travers is the race everyone is here to see. I like the race Governor Malibu ran in the Jim Dandy, and I actually think the mile and a quarter should be no problem. The good news and bad news are the same thing with this horse – nine starts, two wins but five seconds. But on a fast and fair track, I think the Governor should prove he is the three year old who has blossomed since the spring. Exaggerator is the obvious choice in this field, having beaten Nyquist handily in the Haskell. The question – is he just a good rather than great three year old when the track is fast. We’ll find out today. Destin disappointed in the Jim Dandy (and broke my heart in the Belmont) but I’m  willing to give him one more chance. I’m not throwing Laoban in the mix, and perhaps that is a mistake, but I think  his race in the Jim Dandy, while garnering an impressive number, was a fluke. We’ll find out today. Instead I’ll look at American Freedom, who ran the most impressive race in the Haskell, Connect, and improving three year old that was an impressive wire to wire winner in the Curlin, and Gun Runner who clearly needed that race in the Jim Dandy.

Race 12.  Primary 3-5-8  Secondary (6, 7)

Let’s face it. Lady Eli is the clear sentimental favorite. The old Lady Eli was an overlay at even money. But I don’t know what to think about the Lady Eli post-laminitis.  You can’t bet her with both fists, but the Lady Eli of 2014-15 would be a solid pick here. But let’s be realistic. We have no idea if she comes back better as a four year old, and we know some of the other horses have improved since last year. One of those is Sentiero Italia whose prep for this race was impressive She simply doesn’t ever run a bad race and should be every bit the match for the top pick. Miss Temple City is another that has to be considered. That last race was excellent, and she’s clearly a Grade 1 horse. She’s recovered from Dubai, where she showed her exceptional closing ability. While she is a solid closer notice at today’s distance she is 2 for 2. Strike Charmer is better than her 20-1 ML odds and can make the verticals. Onus is another that interests me. Notice in her last she had the lead at the stretch call before folding. The cutback in distance should be in her favor.

Race 13. 10-11-7-6

Race 1. Doesn’t look like there is anything tricky here. It looks like the winner will come from Gold for the King, Syndergaard, and Bobby on Fleek. Gold for the King had trouble in his first out on the same day that Syndergaard ran, and both ran about the same time. At the odds I’ll look harder at Gold for the King. 3-5-4

Race 2. Tough race with a lot of unknowns. Super Mama goes for Chad Brown and he is just excellent with debuting turf fillies. Filly Madison ran well on a sloppy track at SAR and tries the turf today. Breeding seems better for the turf and adds Lasix for this effort. About that Base should show speed today and could be tough to catch.  4-8-11

Race 3. Another race with no obvious throw-outs. Cause I’m Alex didn’t run badly on the slop at SAR. He’s the best closer in the race and has a good lifetime win percentage. Onecats Chance has been on a good run lately and has a nice work at the SPA for this race. Has a win at SAR in four races. Deuces High didn’t show well in the NY Derby at FL, but drops to a level that should allow him to show the talent he flashed in breaking his maiden. Primary 5-4-1  Secondary (3, 7)

Race 4. Moonshine Cafe ran well in her debut last year at SAR, laid off 10 months and ran decently at BEL. Comes back in seven weeks with a series of useful works at SAR. Preying Mantis has nine starts, and that is more than I usually like to see, but he has shown well on the turf lately. Catch Your Dreams goes for Jonathan Sheppard who is still a good turf trainer. Top last race figure. Primary 2-4-7  Secondary (8, 9) **Note: With this race off the turf only Moonshine Cafe stays in from the contenders list. That would make 5 Cahirciveen and 1 Cashconsiderations the more likely winners. 

Race 5. Nothing tricky here for me. The likely top choices Hit it Once, Jet Black and Extinct Charm look best. Primary 6-1-3  Secondary (7)

Race 6.  Totally wide open race. Lucky Lou Pal, The Great Samurai and Follow the Signs get the primary nod for me.  Primary 8-7-2  Secondary (5, 10) 

Race 7. I didn’t think there were any throw-outs in this running of the Seeking the Ante. Code Red ran wide entering the stretch but finished powerfully. Workouts suggest she should be ready in this spot. Tiznow’s Smile has a few positives. She didn’t break sharply and was well out of the race early, but finished strongly. She takes the blinkers off today and adds Lasix for this run. At 10-1 she’s the one I’ll be most interested in looking at for a win bet. Twist ‘n Shout dueled early and them dominated a field in the slop a month ago. Can’t discount her chances.  Primary 4-3-5  Secondary (2, 6, 7)

Race 8. The Yaddo is always an entertaining race and this renewal is likely to live up to that billing. Fourstar Crook draws in off the AE list looking for her fifth win in a row for Chad Brown. Her last is the top figure for the field. Neck of the Moon has been prepped for this race by Chad Brown. As a 5 year old she won at this distance on the SAR turf, and has only seemed to have gotten better in 2016, placing in two stakes at BEL. The works should have her ready to roll. Her last race was a lifetime best. The Tea Cups is back to defend her title in this race. She had a trouble start in her last and didn’t finish well, but she is top notch running against state breds. She likes the distance and likes SAR. Distorted Beauty isn’t really jumping up in class. She ran well in her last out at SAR and her figures suggest she fits in this race. Primary 13-10-7-11  Secondary (2, 3, 9) 

Race 9. The West Point brings together some of the better NY bred turf horses. King Kreesa is my choice here. He was second to Lubash in last year’s running of this race and looks to be in top shape having run competitively in the G1 Fourstardave. Kharafa ran well in the Oceanport, just losing to Blacktype. He’s always a threat in these statebred stakes.  Primary 2-4  Secondary (1, 3)

Race 10.  The Fleet Indian brings together a competitive field of fillies. Super Surprise has been running well for Pletcher this year and comes off a win at SAR. Consistent runner should have no trouble with the step up in distance. Highway Star had some trouble at the break last out when tried on the turf but still showed some interest. Back to the dirt today and that should put her in with a better chance today. Mecke’s Madalyn just missed in the NY Oaks at FL and should be fine with the stretch out. Last race figure suggests she competes well in this group. Primary 5-2-6  Secondary (3, 4)

Race 11. The closer is a tough race, especially if it moves off the turf. Primary 15-2-8  Secondary (1, 5, 6, 10)

Race 2. A lot of uncertainties here, but I like the drop Risener is taking today. A little bit of a chance, but at 8-1 he might be worth a second look. Trappe is dropping a little bit less, but is adding blinkers. In his last he never got away from the gate and made no real effort, but he was 9/2 in his debut and has Steve Asmussen in his corner. Mr. Curiosity ran very well in his 2016 debut and switches to the RuRod barn. Irad stays for the ride.  3-2-7

Race 3.  Tough race with more than a few unknowns. I’m going with the horse that has had some experience, Jacqueline D.  Primary 3-6-7-9  (13, 15 if they draw in are contenders)

Race 4.  This is one of a couple of races today where there are a plethora of contenders. Saluda is at 15-1 on the ML but if you toss the last race on the turf, the prior race is competitive. Dreamboat Annie showed a little bit of speed last out and drops a bit in price. The drop should help her hold her speed longer. Lady Luciano has had a decent 2016 and her figures suggest she’s competitive here.  Primary 2-7-5  Secondary (1, 3)

Race 5.  I don’t think there is a real throw out in this race. Dom the Bomb had three races on the synthetic at AP but prior to that had a big number on the dirt in a higher class. Rich ‘n’ Tuck was over his head last race but is at a much kinder level today. Winter Games was claimed last out by DJ off a strong win at $32K and fits well at this level.  Primary 1-3-5  Secondary (4, 6, 7)

Race 6. I tend to look for horses that haven’t gotten too close to professional maiden status. The horses that fit best for me are Bright Side Up, Queenofthechannel, and Laquesta. Primary 1-3-5  Secondary (4, 6, 7)

Race 7. No Texting was claimed last out by RuRod who laid him off for nine months. Rudy is not known for horses coming off layoffs, but the horse has done well off the layoff previously. Should be the speed in this race, Shalako comes off a win at SAR and is actually looking for his fourth in a row. Steamboat Bill always seems to be competitive. Figures put him right in the middle of this race.  Primary 11-3-8  Secondary (2, 4, 5, 9)

Race 8.  Cadeyrn has been on my list of horses to keep an eye on, and should be the one to catch today. Flash Trading shipped in for Albert Stall and impressively beat a field $50K starter ALW horses. Should be the one bearing down on the leader in the stretch. Primary 4-5  Secondary (1, 6, 7)

Race 9.  On Leave hasn’t run a bad one in her short career and is looking for her third win in a row. Actually had a second at SAR as a 2YO. Pricedtoperfection is one of the three horses trained by Chad Brown. She ran decently in the BEL Oaks and has a win in a G3 at GP. Island Reward moves over to the Chad Brown barn and he is 24% first time with new charges. At 12-1 she could be the overlooked horse.   Primary 7-8-1  Secondary (2, 3, 4, 10)

Race 10. Rio Vista didn’t run badly last out with $50K starter ALW horses. Figures are competitive. Ellenvelyn just broke her maiden for $40K and should be in a good pressing position. The drop to 5.5F shouldn’t hurt. Peppermint Stick makes her second start for RuRod. She’s at 12-1 which is worth giving her a longer look.  Primary 11-8-1  Secondary (4, 6, 10)

Race 2. Not a lot of insight here since the horses likely to get bet look best. I went with Chorus Line a horse that made a good debut last November at AQU, and actually didn’t run that badly in her 2016 debut three weeks ago at SAR. Expecting some improvement this time. Phantom Phasr adds blinkers today and usually Albertrani horses need a race or two. Antebellum moves back to the dirt after trying the turf for a while. Learning Curve is making the big drop today and may be tops based on back class. 4-9-1-8

Race 3. Bee Noteworthy never got out of the gate but made a decent run considering it was her 2016 debut. The drop in price should help today. Staff Sgt Reckless should be better at the sprint distance. The entry of Papa’s Missile and Redneck Gold both look well placed in this field. Primary 6-2-1/1A  Secondary (4, 5)

Race 4.  This race looks extremely wide open. Undercutter looked good breaking his maiden, but didn’t break and may have been over his head in his first with winners. He has enought speed to benefit from the one post. Zoot Suit is coming off a five month layoff, but has shown some talent at the short turf sprint distance. Seems better suited for the turf. Tapit Wicked has a bad case of seconditis, with 7 place finishes in 16 starts. Obviously he has the talent, but will he have the heart? Big Air made his SAR debut three years ago and it was inauspicious to say the least. Based on his last he certainly gets consideration.  Primary 1-8-3-11  Secondary (4, 5, 10)

Race 5. Very difficult race. While Johnny V normally rides debuting 2YO’s for Pletcher, in this race he went to Dr. Stone. Bruce Levine is struggling at SAR, but I’ll give him a nod today. Out of Trouble goes for Kieran McLaughlin who is a solid  21% with first timers. Great Neck has a start over the SAR dirt. She ran evenly to finish 3rd last out and should improve with the experience.  Primary 8-7-3  Secondary (2, 5, 6)

Race 6. A little more predictable 2YO race. Forge is the Chad Brown entrant and looks very tough off his last race. Let’s Get Loud goes for top 2YO trainer Wesley Ward. Toshiro goes first time for top turf trainer Graham Motion.  Primary 6-2-7  Secondary (3)

Race 7.  Greywalls is an interesting choice for me. She has been racing at a higher price, so the drop should be helpful. She has a win in two tries at SAR and she looks like she is cycling up in her form cycle. Littlemissperfect ran a good second and was claimed last out by Linda Rice who is 31% with a positive ROI first off the claim. She is dynamite on the dirt, but competent on the turf. Have to trust Rice  to place the horse where she has the best chance of winning. Emerald Pond goes for Chad Brown and you can’t ignore his turf fillies, especially considering she’s got three wins in four starts this year. Primary 5-4-2  Secondary (1, 8, 10)

Race 8. Saratoga Heater already has two wins at SAR and is looking to come back in three days to make it three in a row. Jacobson is actually 22% with that move. John’s Island has struggled a bit to find the winner’s circle this year but in his defense he’s been racing with much better than this group. More Zen Tea was claimed last out by Steve Asmussen after just missing three weeks ago. Should be finishing quickly in the stretch. Primary 6-1-4  Secondary (2)

Race 9. My Afleet has proven he can run the long distance races as he proved in 2014 at SAR with a win and a second. He’s been with better in the past and looks like he is cycling up to a top effort. Mr. Maybe has been running with graded horses this year and has the top figures in this field. Will be very tough in this spot. Renown jumped to the flats after doing well as a hurdle horse and won a stakes at DEL. I actually like horses that can run well over both the hurdles and the flat, and Elizabeth Voss is a good trainer.  Primary 7-3-1. Secondary (2, 5)

Race 10.  Stella Street is the Chad Brown horse dropping in price and has to be considered the main contender here. Magnesia Big Girl raced well when placed at this level last out. Figures suggest she’s right in the mix. Rosedale Arch didn’t have her best chance on the slop last out and the return to the turf should help her today. Primary 4-10-11  Secondary (2, 6, 9)

Race 1.  4-1-3

Race 2.  4-8-9 (12 if he draws in)

Race 3.  8-1-3

Race 4.  2-1-11-5

Race 5.  Primary 1-8-2  Secondary (3, 4)

Race 6.  Primary 2-5-3  Secondary (6, 7, 8)

Race 7.  9-5-3

Race 8.  Primary 2-1-5  Secondary (6, 7)

Race 9.  Primary 11-2-5  Secondary (1, 8, 9)

Race 10.  Primary 2-6-9  Secondary (1)

Race 11.  Primary 7-1-8  Secondary (4, 5, 6)