Travers Day. The culmination of the Saratoga season, which has been very good to me again. With 13 races no analysis on the early events, just the stakes.
Race 1. Primary 2-3-1 Secondary (4, 10)
Race 2. Primary 10-1-11 Secondary (2, 3, 6, 8)
Race 3. Primary 4-1A-2 Secondary (3, 6)
Race 4, Primary 10-3-5-7 Secondary (1, 8)
Race 5. Primary 10-5-6 Secondary (3, 7, 8)
Race 6. 2-5-1
This edition of the Personal Ensign looks like it is Curalina’s to lose. She had a smashing victory in the Shuvee and has had good success at SAR. She hasn’t run in anything but Grade 1’s since June 2015 and her figures are very consistent. Should be in a good spot turning for home. Cavorting looks like the major competition. She’s a multiple Grade 1 winner and is three of three at SAR. Although it may look like a two horse race, I’m a Chatterbox can’t be discounted. The winner of the G1 Delaware handicap last out ran a lifetime top in that race and a figure that puts her in the vicinity of Curalina. Forever Unbridled was second to Cavorting in the Ogden Phipps and in a five horse field she can’t be thrown out of the verticals. Paid Up Subscriber may be the speed in this field but just doesn’t look as accomplished as the others.
Race 7. 9-2-8-3
This is a good renewal of the Ballerina. Carina Mia gets the slight nod in this version. She was second to the powerful Songbird in her last but before that was an impressive winner in the 8 Belles and the Acorn. She has a nice stalking style and has the top last out figure. By the Moon may be the value play in this race. She beat Wavell Avenue in the Bed O Roses showing an impressive turn of foot coming out of the turn. Ortiz opts to ride the 3, but the switch to Castellano isn’t a downgrade at all. Wavell Avenue came out of the Bed O Roses to win the Shine Again at SAR in an excellent time. She likes the track with two wins in three tries. Off her best she’s a prime contender. Paulassilverlining has been competitive in G2 and G3 events. She may be a half step below the choices in this race but she may be part of the early pace picture.
Race 8. Primary 2-1-6-13 Secondary (3, 8)
The King’s Bishop is one of the most anticipated races of the season. Lots of contenders in here. Fish Trappe Road seems perfect for the 7F distance. He comes off a win in the Dwyer around one turn and looks to have developed quite a bit since his two year old and early three year old seasons. At 8-1 ML he’s worth a long look. Economic Model was second in the Dwyer and adds blinkers today. Chad Brown is 22% with that move. Irad Ortiz opts to stay with the horse. The most interesting horse is Mohaymen, especially at 5-1 ML. He was up against it in the Jim Dandy here a month ago after stumbling at the start, but he is still one of the quality three year olds in training. He showed he could negotiate the one turn sprint in his first two starts, and showed a good tracking style since. Based on breeding, this distance should be to his liking. Junior has to break the horse cleanly today and get a good attacking spot. He has every right to win this race. Defrong ships in for Bob Baffert and gets a nod on that basis. Plus, his last race figure thoroughly tops the field. Summer Revolution is one of those young horses that can jump up and surprise. Mind Your Biscuits was a solid winner of the Amsterdam and can’t be dismissed out of hand.
Race 9. Primary 11-8-1 Secondary (2, 9)
The two primary contenders are A.P. Indian and Marking. The former is on a three race winning streak including the 7FBelmont Sprint. He has a win on the SAR dirt. The latter was coming at the winner in the Belmont Sprint, losing by only a head. He looks recovered from the trip to Dubai and I like the switch to Rosario for this run. Stallwalkin‘ Dude comes off an good win in the Tale of the Cat at SAR. He loves the track and looks like he is at the top of his form cycle. Catalina Red comes off a series of Graded efforts including a win at this distance at CD. The figures say he is a main contender with this group. Chief Lion was second in the Tale of the Cat after lugging out with the lead in the stretch. Can’t be dismissed out of hand. Ready for Rye looks like he has some potential for the verticals.
Race 10. Primary 6 Secondary ( 1, 2, 4)
Not a lot of need to go deep in this race. Flintshire is the best turf horse running in America and unless something strange happens he should be a short-priced winner. If you feel inclined to go deep, Grand Tito, Money Multiplier and Twilight Eclipse are the most likely upsetters.
Race 11. Primary 4-7-8 Secondary(2, 10, 14)
The Travers is the race everyone is here to see. I like the race Governor Malibu ran in the Jim Dandy, and I actually think the mile and a quarter should be no problem. The good news and bad news are the same thing with this horse – nine starts, two wins but five seconds. But on a fast and fair track, I think the Governor should prove he is the three year old who has blossomed since the spring. Exaggerator is the obvious choice in this field, having beaten Nyquist handily in the Haskell. The question – is he just a good rather than great three year old when the track is fast. We’ll find out today. Destin disappointed in the Jim Dandy (and broke my heart in the Belmont) but I’m willing to give him one more chance. I’m not throwing Laoban in the mix, and perhaps that is a mistake, but I think his race in the Jim Dandy, while garnering an impressive number, was a fluke. We’ll find out today. Instead I’ll look at American Freedom, who ran the most impressive race in the Haskell, Connect, and improving three year old that was an impressive wire to wire winner in the Curlin, and Gun Runner who clearly needed that race in the Jim Dandy.
Race 12. Primary 3-5-8 Secondary (6, 7)
Let’s face it. Lady Eli is the clear sentimental favorite. The old Lady Eli was an overlay at even money. But I don’t know what to think about the Lady Eli post-laminitis. You can’t bet her with both fists, but the Lady Eli of 2014-15 would be a solid pick here. But let’s be realistic. We have no idea if she comes back better as a four year old, and we know some of the other horses have improved since last year. One of those is Sentiero Italia whose prep for this race was impressive She simply doesn’t ever run a bad race and should be every bit the match for the top pick. Miss Temple City is another that has to be considered. That last race was excellent, and she’s clearly a Grade 1 horse. She’s recovered from Dubai, where she showed her exceptional closing ability. While she is a solid closer notice at today’s distance she is 2 for 2. Strike Charmer is better than her 20-1 ML odds and can make the verticals. Onus is another that interests me. Notice in her last she had the lead at the stretch call before folding. The cutback in distance should be in her favor.
Race 13. 10-11-7-6