The first half of the card looks pretty chalky, but the second half looks more interesting.

Race 1

• 1 Big Lute – good tactical speed, top figure in the race and Jacobson trains. He’s hitting at an other-worldly 40% at the AQU meet. Although he has an entrymate entered in Artemus Paperboy, there doesn’t seem to be a need for Jacobson to run that horse back in five days, so he is the likely scratch. He may be
• 5 Mop Head – ran on the AQU dirt 13 days ago after running his last six on the turf and did just fine. Claimed two back by Danny Gargan and he enters him at the price at which he grabbed him.
• 4 Harlan’s Hello – was well thought of as a three year old in 2011, running in the Dwyer and the Pegasus. After the Dwyer he disappeared until June of his year, ran three races and then dropped out of sight again in July. He comes back with a new trainer, Leslie Hinds, one of the worst trainers on the grounds and the current conditioner of the infamous Eva Lil. It’s hard to imagine Hinds improving the horse, but given the short field it’s possible he’ll finish in the money.

Race 2

• 1 Melville – isn’t going to be overlooked by many. In his last he lost contact with the field and made a huge sustained move around the turn, actually taking the lead in the stretch. This is typically what I refer to as “overused information.” The pace in that race was killing and no horse up toward the front early had any finish left. This is not to say Melville didn’t run a good race – he did – but he certainly benefitted from a speed duel between his stablemate Coordinate and Sherifco, who wound up last and second last. On the other hand three horses have already come out of that race to win. He’ll be bet and he may be best.
• 5 Idiosyncratic – Lost to one of the horses that came out of the Melville race in his last out. Thewayyouare is not noted at a turf sire – in fact this horse has a terrible turf rating.  Still, he’s run twice on the lawn and has done ok both times. It doesn’t hurt that Chad Brown is conditioning.
• 3 Hoon – Irish bred debuted in America at CD and ran a good second. I like that the horse got into the race from an outside post, and really lost all the ground he could around both turns. Tried closing on the winner but couldn’t get there. He should improve in his second American start today.
• 10 T Sizzle – Looked good at SAR this summer, went to Laurel to break his maiden and couldn’t get it done. Adds blinkers today and perhaps that focuses him enough to make it home first.

Race 3

• 1 Speedboat Sally – Drops from OC $25K to open $16K claimers. Seven year old mare shows no signs of slowing down, with 3 wins in 8 starts this year. Her task is a little tougher today considering she has spent most of her time at Parx, but she has the figures to top this field.
• 2 In Kelly’s Defense – Came from the midwest, set the pace in a $32K claimer in September but faded badly. Was taken out of that race by RuRod and that is the primary reason she’s one of the picks here. Rodriguez has a 29% hit rate first off the claim and I have a feeling he was correcting whatever problems he saw after snagging the horse. A return to form makes this one tough.
• 3 Darnley Bay – Another one who went to Pennsylvania in search of a win but came back empty handed. Takes a serious drop in price, although she’s really done her best running with low level claimers. Cannizzo is overdue.
• 4 Midnightpositano – has a lot of natural speed and may be the one to catch here. Races against this sort of group have been fair, but I’d like to have seen a better finish. Depends on the track, but not totally outless.

Race 4

• 5 Island Candy – Finished second in a mile race washed off the turf and was claimed out of that one by Michelle Nevin. Nevin is a solid 26% with first off the claim. Has a win and a second at AQU and two seconds at the distance. I’d call her a good favorite, but certainly not untouchable.
• 6 Ocean Boulevard – Presser/closer style should work well in this race. Won at a mile in a $25K NW2L, and didn’t run horribly in an open $25K claimer and a $25K NW3 in the slop last two, and this field is not the toughest she’s faced. She was well enough thought of as a two year old to start in a Grade 2. Good chance here.
• 4 Casual Elegance – ran a good one on the AQU slop but is trained by one of the worst trainers on the grounds, David J. Smith. I debated a long time before including her in the mix. Smith after all was the trainer who got Eva Lil off to a career as a chronic loser. Despite Smith she seems to have speed and has occasionally held it through the stretch. Still playing her with a grain of salt.
• 9 Kiss Cat – Beat Casual Elegance finishing second in that sloppy race at Aqueduct where the 4 finished third. Not much on a fast track, but could be part of the exotics.

Race 5

• 6 Starship Pleasant – Jason Servis runner has good tactical speed, and has a lot of seconds and thirds but only one win this year. Probably at the right level to look for a win. Sporadic works for the return off a two month layoff. One second on the AQU turf.
• 2 Thundering Gale – looking for her third win in a row for Chad Brown. He’s a genius with turf fillies and should have a rail spot early.
• 7 My One and Only – Low profile connections and hasn’t won a race this year, but has been with this sort most of the year. Don’t prefer the plodding style but she should be closing at the end. More likely part of the exotics.
• 10 Issheit – Front running sort jumps up the class ladder. Speed is always dangerous although Formulator tells us that only one horse has wired a field. Still, in the money is a real possibility,

Race 6

• 3 Genre- was wide in her debut on the slop at BEL at today’s distance but closed very well to finish second. Pletcher trains so the 8-1 odds from her debut are a distant memory. Will be bet heavily and may deserve odds on status.
• 8 Fair Point – third start and puts the blinkers on for McGaughey. Should appreciate the mile distance. There are actually a cadre of horses that all have run similar figures, so I’m looking for separators and the blinkers fit the bill.
• 2 My Sweet Girl – was far outside on a sloppy BEL track in the same race as Genre. Barclay Tagg has been starting live horses at AQU. Don’t expect her to turn the tables on Genre, but should run a good one.
• 7 Bonnet Plume – no reason she should be 10-1 on the ML. Showed a little bit of tracking speed but not much finish. Should have gotten a lot out of the race and improvement is not unreasonable.

Race 7

• 5 Premium – Seems to prefer an easy pace at longer distances but does show a win at a mile. McLaughlin trainee showed a lot more speed with the addition of Lasix. She should be in the mix at the end.
• 8 Little Journey – three graded races in a row before dropping into an OC $62K and finishing a length and a half behind Premium. Chad Brown usually finds a way to place his horses right and get them to win.
• 1 Cloture – Broke her maiden in he eighth start but came back two after that to win her NW1X. Seems like McGaughey has her on the right track . One concern – her two wins were at a mile and a quarter. Still, with the right pace and the right ride she has a reasonable chance.
• 3 Tizallheart – 18 starts, one win, 7 seconds. Looks like a horse with a good chance of finishing in the money.

Race 8

• 7 Seal Team Four – won a race at a mile at CD in May where he was claimed by Tony Dutrow. He came back in a six furlong sprint three weeks ago but backed up in the stretch. Dutrow adds Lasix today and hopefully that keeps the horse from fading. He has plenty of speed and the last race should do him a world of good.
• 2 Spider Roll – listed as the 4-5 ML favorite after drubbing a state-bred MSW field on a muddy AQU track 12 days ago. The final time was not spectacular, but given the mucky track a better time can be expected today. Whether or not he’s worth odds on is something we’ll find out today.
• 4 Myrlanski – Horse hadn’t been seen since April 2012 when he showed up in a state-bred NW1X at seven furlongs on the turf a month ago. Scott Phillip is the trainer and his record is very poor, but the horse could improve enough to grab a minor piece.
• 3 Adams Note – broke his maiden in his second start and has been stuck at NW1X since. Seems to run evenly and makes his first start on the dirt since his debut race. Has the feel of a trainer looking for something to change the mojo. We’ll see if it works.

Race 9

• 2 Simple Love – Cuts her claiming price in half in search of a win. Has the best figures in the field and a nice pressing style. Clement is dynamite with sprint to route.
• 1 Wine Burglar – had a troubled start, winding up at the back of the pack, but made a furious move to get within a length of the leader, ultimately losing the race by two. Has been racing well for a while now and can improve today.
• 9 Chow Fun – beat a better field at BEL in June then threw in two mediocre races. Bruce Levine drops her substantially in claiming price in search of a win and she should be closing well in the stretch. Not without chances.
• 3 Lakeview Lady – is the speed of the race and is at the proper level. Exotic possibilities.

I’m assuming fast and firm today.

Race 1

• 1 Imposing Figure – Only one race at SAR where he battled up front early while wide and gradually weakened. Since that race the horse has changed hands to David Jacobson who has only given him one workout and that was two weeks ago. Still, Jacobson is magic with horses first time under his care and he really doesn’t have a tough field to beat here.
• 7 Ziggy Moondust – looks like the pacesetter in here. Ran into two off tracks in his last two races, and in his debut was on the turf, so we can’t be certain how he’ll handle a fast dirt. Still, has an impressive figure off the wet track races and will have to be caught.
• 4 Rock On Chacho – high percentage trainer at FL hasn’t had the same sort of success downstate. The FL works are good, although they don’t really show the trainer trying to inject some speed into the horse. Perhaps he’s prepping for something a little longer, but no reason to doubt he’ll be trying hard today.
• 2 Shinnecock Bay – eight starts and a couple of in the money finishes. Has shown speed on the turf and didn’t run badly on the fast dirt. Less up side than the top two, but not totally outless.

Race 2

• 8 Day Six – has the best figures, although he’s been racing longer distances. Has showed an inclination to run to the front and has good stretch courage. Probably had a very minor injury after the September 14 race, laid off three weeks and has had regular works over the last month. Not sure I like the drop from MSW, and the 5-2 ML odds are not particularly attractive, but it’s possible they are hungry for a win. Not a pushover field but he looks best.
• 4 Mambo At the Gym – had been running in MSW and dropped into a $62,500 claimer where he finished second behind behind next out winner Are We Not Men and a length in front of Dividend who also goes today. He went back to MSW on a good BEL turf and ran somewhat evenly. Two horses have already won out of that MCL and the drop to $40K should make a big difference.
• 7 Dividend – third behind the aforementioned 4 last out. In the race before that he was coming on the eventual winner Big Boss Man but missed by a nose. In that race he actually beat Are We Not Men by almost two lengths, but didn’t have the same luck on the good turf. Seems, then, to prefer the firmer turf and we can expect a top effort today.
• 3 Collinito only has three races. He won his second start at GP, but was DQ’d to second in what I could only describe as a marginal call. If the GP stewards were working at SA for the Breeder’s Cup Classic, no doubt they’d have DQ’d the top two. Collinito sprinted to a long early lead, and drifted slightly in the stretch, never making contact but “bothering” the second place horse. After the incident the second place horse started a rally and came within a neck of the victory, and I think that rally (not unexpected considering Collinito had been on fast fractions and had to be tiring) induced the stewards to assume he just might have lost a placing. Apparently the stewards at GP have a slightly clearer crystal ball than those at  SA, because I thought it could have been 50-50 chalked up to good race riding. In any case, after an 8 month layoff he didn’t get the front and ran pretty much evenly around the track. I know I put him in the fourth spot here, but he would be no surprise if he sprinted out on an AQU turf that has been very kind to front runners and won again.
• 3 Relentless Ride – let’s face it; a horse that finishes in the money 12 of 14 races seems like a high probability to finish in the money. Not expecting a win, but it would be hard to leave him out of the exotics.

Race 3

• 2 Glickman – Jacobson scratched him out of a spot where he had good win prospects last weekend to place him here. Glickman was a middling $20K claimer until Jacobson got a hold of him and turned him into a speedball. He looks like the front runner here and will have to be caught.
• 1 Cherokee Artist – is the other Jacobson horse and the one he owns. I know that racing rules allow horses with the same trainer but different owners to run uncoupled, but it seems a little funky when one of the horses is also owned by the trainer. In any case, he was top notch at some lesser tracks and didn’t run horribly at Saratoga. If he runs back to his earlier form he’s a strong contender.
• 5 Abra – the other speed horse; is 2 of 3 at AQU. Will have his hands full with Glickman and may set the race up for Cherokee Artist.

Race 4

• 6 Call Wil – should claim favoritism. Won in early October in a NW2L on a yielding BEL turf. Returned in an off the turf race on a sloppy track and didn’t run badly. Pressing style should give him a good striking spot.
• 11 George Cross – makes it in from the AE list. Five straight second place finishes and it looks like that might be the best he can hope for today.
• 9 Spirit of Peace – plenty of speed and held it for a win at MED in October. May be a little over his head here, but the AQU lawn has been kind to front runners so he has some outs.
• 1 Sonnyandpally – dropped down to beat a $25K NW2L field in September. Has a lot of starts for only two wins but does have his share of in the money finishes,

Race 5

• 4 Knockher Off – good speed and has a liking for the AQU dirt. Was on two wet tracks that were taken off the turf in his last two races and those were his first two in ten months. Didn’t run badly and Jimmy Jerkens decided to keep him on the dirt. Third off the layoff should be the best effort.
• 2 Big Guy Ian – Showed a lot of speed in the Amsterdam, came back in a NW1X and faded badly. Laid off two months and came back out in the mud and actually held as well as he had since he broke his maiden. Another where improvement should be expected.
• 1 Dyker Beach – 23 starts and 2 wins but 10 seconds. Lots of talent, just seems to hang. Useful in the exotics.
• 5 Billy the Bull – Came out in the slop and won at 15-1. Lots of speed, is good at the distance, and is ok on a fast track.

Race 6

• 5 Compliance Officer – in a tough, competitive race, Compliance Officer gets the nod. He is 2 of 4 on the AQU turf, and is good at the distance. He drops from OC $62K into this spot and has far and away the best figures. He has had some trouble finding the winners enclosure so there is always a little doubt, but he’ll be low odds and seems best.
• 10 Blue Pigeon – Nothing but in the money finishes in his last five, including a win on the yielding BEL turf last out. Probably not dropping significantly in price but fits with this group. Like the running style and Irad stays for Clement. Wouldn’t be a surprise.
• 2 Jonrah – In a move you don’t see too often Chad Brown claimed the horse last out for $40K and wheels him back in this OC $40K and offers him for the same price. I’m not sure what that means – is he just looking to grab a purse or is he signalling it wasn’t a great move to grab the horse? In any case the horse ran well in this class level last time and has some good figures in his past performance.
• 11 I Got Id – wondering what Imbriale does with this name. Will it be I-D or id? Horse has only 4 starts with two wins and a place. Nothing I like better than to find a three year old with prospects to improve. He may have some physical issues, but he’s had a nice set of works for this return and I’ll give him a reasonable chance to jump up.

Race 7

• 7 Little Gidding – had some good races at SAR and BEL during the summer but had trouble staying in front all the way to the wire at 6 1/2. Cut back to 6 furlongs on a good Laurel track with the same result. Drops in price for RuRod and gets Irad for the ride. Perhaps a bit chancy but has speed and fits the group.
• 4 Da Wildcat Girl – Two race win streak on the line. Grabbed by Scott Schwartz last time out for $25K and he drops her a level today. Has been consistent all year and should have no problem with the cut back to 6 furlongs.
• 6 Bridget Maloney – Has had some success at AQU and at the distance. A lot of races this year. Was claimed two back by Peter Chris and he got her to run second with $20K state-breds. Not without a chance.
• 3 Foxbeau – has been off since March for new trainer Gary Gullo. Comes down by half from his last claiming price. Is 1 for 1 on the AQU dirt and has two wins in five attempts  at the distance. Ran well in his debut start so perhaps she’ll come running today.

Race 8

• 1a Goodtolook – Contessa scratched Pretension to leave this one in despite Pretension looking like the stronger of the two. Has shown lots of speed at route distances since the claim and tries sprinting today. Gotta trust Contessa on this one.
• 2 Smokem’s Charm – ships in from FL for Charlton Baker. Works well in the morning upstate and has been with some of the better state-breds at FL. At 15-1 ML worth throwing in to the verticals and horizontals.
• 4 Writingonthewall – won two of his last three including a very nice win at today’s distance against a $25K starter allowance. One of four at AQU and won his only start at this distance. Michelle Nevin has kept a low profile at AQU but is 5 of 6 in the money. Should be a solid favorite and would be no surprise at all to find the winners enclosure.
• 5 Sol The Freud – Finished second off a two month layoff and comes back after another five weeks off. Has one uninspiring work for this one, but has the number and the running style to compete.

Race 9

• 7 Fulmer – Didn’t break well in his last, dropped all the way back and then started a long sustained run down the backstretch. Nobody was beating Kerjillion that day and Fulmer did well to get the place. Third place runner broke his maiden next time out. Very Dangerous with a good break.
• 10 No Texting – plenty of early speed but questionable heart in the stretch. Still, the track has played friendly to speed so that is in his favor. Has the figures to win here.
• 4 Gear Jammer – Looked  pretty good in his last two starts at a mile and adds blinkers today. Has a couple of nice workouts prepping for this.
• 8 Pronunciation – first two finishers came from well off the pace. Bumped at the start and had to work hard to get a spot. Stayed wide throughout and really wasn’t likely sustain to given the early trouble and position. Can improve enough to outpace the field here.
• 6 Mark My Style – ran poorly on the slop but in his prior race ran a good one in the same race Gear Jammer finished 3rd. He was only half a length behind that one and should be double Gear Jammer’s odds. I’ll probably use him in my pick 3/4.

A few really poor fields, but a couple of competitive races.

Race 1

This race is one of the poor ones. I want to comment about the 1 Eva Lil. She has started 34 times, has two third place finishes and $17K in winnings. That means she averages $500 per start. There is no reason this horse should be allowed to race, especially at one of the big NY tracks.

• 7 Hot On Ice – was on two gooey tracks in a row and the turf the race before that. She’s run consistent figures at this level and does have a good turn of early speed. I like that she was able to hold off all horses except the winner last race. Should be volleying up front and just needs to show a little more courage in the stretch to nail this one.
• 2 Alice and Trixie – even money ML favorite. Hasn’t been out since April but has a steady series of works for the return, including two bullets. Was racing against slightly better competition and has experience on this track. If she comes out in shape she might dominate this field.
• 3 Built in a Day – only has three lifetime starts which keeps her out of the potential professional maiden category. Her last two starts were on off tracks, and I liked that she showed a little interest on the BEL slop. Hard to make a case for any other runner in this field.

Race 2

• 5 Hundred Percent – ran well in the mud last out. A little concerning he hasn’t been on the turf but he shouldn’t have any problem with the distance despite backing up at the sprint distance. If Cornelio gets him to relax he should be able to better distribute the speed.
• 1 Intelligence – first timer for Bill Mott and usually this means the horse doesn’t have much of a shot. In this field a lot of the starters have not shown much, so despite the Mott record, this could be the one that is the exception to the rule.
• 8 Thrown of My Own – showed a tiny bit in his debut on the turf and showed a bit more on the slop when the race came off the turf. Low profile connections don’t help but in a field where not many starters have shown anything, these are good credentials.
• 7J C’s Not Brown – goes for Kimmel who’s pretty good with first timers and two year olds. Decent set of works for the debut and would be no surprise in front at the wire.

Race 3

• 2 Furyofthenorsemen – wild ride in the slop first time out so the not-too-close third is forgivable. Far and away the top figure of the horses that have started. Steve Klesaris has quietly had a good year. Arroyo rode him last time, so there is some familiarity with the horse.
• 5 American Soldier – hunch plays don’t get any better than a horse with that name on Veterans Day. Tony Dutrow is fair with first timers and two year olds. The works at Fair Hill have been ok, nothing spectacular, but that seems to be Dutrow’s style. The capable Irad Ortiz gets the mount.
• 6 Madroos – Love the breeding (Indian Charlie and a Malibu Moon mare). Kieran is pretty good with firsters and two year olds. Nice set of works for the debut. The improving Manny Franco gets the ride.
• 1 Saratoga Wildcat – apparently didn’t care for the slop and really never got into his debut race. Has the rail and should improve today.

Race 4

• 2 Gabby’s Brown – ran a good second in her debut race despite having to move between foes.. Rudy Rodriguez trains and Manny Franco stays to ride. Not likely to get any odds but looks best.
• 1 Ferzetti – started her career in DEL with two close seconds. Stepped up to BEL and had a troubled trip first time in NY. Still, she finished fourth in that race. Has plenty of experience and adds Lasix today.
• 7 Samus – Claimed for $40K by Contessa only 12 days ago and wheels right back. Troubled start didn’t help, rushed up some and didn’t fade badly. Expect some improvement today.
• 6 Birkenhead – another one that had trouble last out. Picks up Johnny V today. Looks good enough to catch a part.

Race 5

• 7 Grand Rapport – been generally going longer but is 3 of 4 at today’s distance. Was ambitiously placed in the Bowling Game and still ran respectably. Cornelio has consistently ridden the horse and knows him well. Does nothing but finish first or second.
• 2 Media Kid – only one start at this distance but looks like the best of the horses with early foot. You have to worry about him getting an easy lead and running off with the race. Another that is consistent about being in the money. Seems to flourish when the turf is a little softer, and has run well even with a closer’s bias.
• 1 Treasury Devil – just won at a mile last out for Rudy Rodriguez. Johnny V stays for the ride. The turf should be firm today and that is Treasury Devil’s preferred condition. Two good maintenance works since last should keep him on edge.
• 9 Best Actor – veteran runner fits at this class level. Has struggled to find the winner’s enclosure lately, but has a penchant for finishing in the money.

Race 6

• 7 Socialsaul – 2 of 4 over the AQU dirt. Claimed by Jacobson two back and all he’s done is get the horse to reel off two in a row. Keeps him at the same price level. Consistent figures.
• 6 Volastic – claimed last out by Chris Englehart. Hasn’t been as hot as he was earlier but is still a first rate claiming trainer. Fairly consistent figures – gave Socialsaul all he could handle last time.
• 2 Zoebear – claimed in last two races, last time by Abby Adsit. Seems to have some trouble pushing all the way to the wire, but Adsit has been doing well improving horses after a claim. A couple of nice breezes for this start. May be the pacesetter in this race.
• 5 Reggie D – Not likely a winner, but last time he was at this level just missed. Useful in the back holes.

Race 7

• 8 Blacktype – rode the rail on a soft turf last out, and when they hit the stretch he had nowhere to go. Had to bide his time, finally found a clear lane and closed with interest. Has been consistent this year and should improve in his second start with Lasix. Gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz. 3-1 ML would be good if he stayed there at post time.
• 10 Which Market – bumps up a little in distance but is 3 of 7 going the 1 1/16. Good figures and fits in this group.
• 6 Ocala Jim – has been superb on the lawn all year. Only bad defeat was against the top state-bred turfers in the Mohawk. Would be no surprise here.
• 1 Iron Power – been backing up a little against NW1X on the turf. Won last out on a sloppy track. Has the best early foot in the race and will look to carry his speed all the way. Switches riders to the other Ortiz.

Race 8

• 8 North Ocean – two consecutive races on a sloppy track. He appears to prefer a firmer track. 2 of 6 at the distance and a second in two tries at AQU. Been very popular at the claim box and currently is in the Linda Rice barn. Will head to the front and if he runs back to some of his earlier races he’ll be tough to catch.
• 7 Regulus – 2 for 2 at the mile. Has a nice pressing style and competitive figures. Actually dropping a bit in price today.
• 5 Springcourt – Contessa has been busy at the claiming box and after grabbing this one last out wheels him back for the same price.  Another one with a good record at the distance and at AQU.
• 6 Chairman Now – front running sort just missed against Springcourt last out. Bullet work on 10/30 confirms he’s going to the front and will have to be caught.

Race 9

• 8 Barbara’s Smile – horse has been disappointing since claim by Sciacca in July. But, with only 8 starts she has the right to improve. Finished behind a couple of the professional NW2L horses last out but puts blinkers on and hopefully that will be enough to get her to the winner’s enclosure.
• 4 Flirtacious Spring – 21 starts, one win but a bunch of seconds and thirds. Competitive just not good about leading at the wire.
• 9 My Four Rewards – another that struggles to win races. Good prospect for a back hole.
• 5 It’s Your Dime – Just broke her maiden after 11 tries. Has a lot of early speed and will try to use it all the way to the wire.

This is an extremely competitive day. Getting some of the races down to four horses was difficult. Lots of turf horses moving onto the dirt for the winter season, and many don’t have any dirt form. Good luck to everyone today.

Race 1

• 7 Opener – was wide moving on to the backstretch in a turf race and was bumped hard entering the backstretch. Stayed wide throughout, looked a little anxious when she tugged Luzzi into third, but ran out of energy around the far turn. Drops from $50K to $20 K today and changes jockeys to Dylan Davis. Steve Jerkens gave her two recent workouts, nothing special but she should be ready to roll today. She’s a Rock Hard filly so she should be fine with the dirt switch.
• 1 Bay Dawn – has done her best running at FL where she nearly broke her maiden. Her last was on the turf and she’s shown no affinity for the lawn in two starts. Given the weak field, she’s got plenty of outs.
• 3 Bay Road – Been on a break since May 2013 and trainer Randi Persaud is 0 for 14 with long layoff horses. Still she had better figures as a 3 year old than any other horse in the race and has a decent dirt pedigree. If she is over her obvious physical issues she could be the winner.
• 6 Tenacious Indeed hasn’t yet been on the dirt although her best turf races have figures that would be competitive in this field. Perhaps the X factor in this race.
• I’m honestly having trouble throwing anyone else in the win mix. Our Favorite Place showed a tiny bit of talent on the MED lawn at five furlongs but only has two really poor dirt races. You Take the Cake is a 23 start maiden but does have five seconds, so she might be useful in combination bests. That’s No Limit is an 11 start maiden with a recent string of poor races. Too Many Pockets hasn’t been closer than 19 lengths in four lifetime starts. This is a poor field and I’d caution investing at your own risk.

Race 2

• 1 Seeking – second start for Mott who doesn’t have much of a reputation with first timers. She broke second last and closed steadily through out the race despite a dawdling pace. Had a useful work 6 days ago. Regular rider Alvarado is up.
• 4 Accord – goes for Leah Gyamati. Unlucky to have both her first two races wash off the turf and being a Lemon Drop Kid the turf and the distance should be to her liking. Steady works since her last.
• 8 Trensita – ran a good second at this distance on the BEL turf. Comes back with a steady series of works at Fair Hill. Doesn’t have to improve much to be in the mix.
• 10 Lismore – ran second in a 7 furlong sprint and adds Lasix today. Worked a bullet five days ago and Cornelio stays.
• Lots of other interesting horses to look at. Cover Up has three decent dirt starts and tries the turf for the first time. Violinist is a first timer for Todd Pletcher and how often does one of his horses get listed at 12-1 ML. Tiz Jeweled went in a race that washed off the turf and with Clement training she could make a big improvement on the green. Bishops Pond is a first timer for Chad Brown and he is something of a genius with 2 year old turf fillies. She might be one to throw in just because of the connections. Finally, any of the three also eligibles would have to be considered if they drew in.

Race 3

• 5 Ridingwiththedevil – winner last out for Abby Adsit and hasn’t run a really bad one in a while. Seemed to be developing some seconditis but after she was claimed, Adsit put fronts and blinkers on and the horse ran away from a MSW field in a good time. Should enjoy the cutback to six furlongs.
• 3 Wraith – 6-5 ML favorite has thrown four second place finishes in a row and that is not really positive. But has been at the class level and has the figures to compete.
• 1 Vision of Mine – last at Parx is a little hidden – she was only a length and a half out at the six furlong call. Puts the blinkers on and that may focus her enough to be in the picture.

Race 4

• 2 Blue Collar Cat – was running fairly well in MSW last year. Laid off a full year and came out at six and a half at BEL where he ran well after being slightly bumped at the break. Definitely needed the race and given his front running style she should be able to get a good initial position. Encouraging sign that Johnny V stays.
• 5 Blue Shark – only one race on a fast dirt track and that was a decent effort, but he is dropping from MSW and that should be a big help. Should be tracking and we’ll see if he has the stamina to get by everyone.
• 4 Fictional Character – one race on a fast dirt and he just missed. That has to be enough to put him in the contender category.
• 6 Greg’s Fourwheeler – Dropping from MSW and has been ok on the dirt. Improved out of the gate last time when he put the shades on and that race can be excused because the track was soupy. Ran evenly at a mile and might be the value play.

Race 5

Frustratingly now off the turf. Of the MTO’s, 15 Nonnie Connie is 2 for 22 and may catch a piece but I just can’t back horses with that kind of percentage with any enthusiasm.

• 8 Bella Kateri – had been knocking on the door before she won her maiden drawing away. Like the pressing style and the nice series of works after two months rest.
• 3 Thatza Wrap – has run decently on the yielding turf. Don’t necessarily like that this is her fifth try at the NW1X level but she has run consistent figures and is good enough on her best to get a piece.
• 6 Lady Kreesa – has not really run a bad one in a seven race career., including two races in the NY Stallion Series. Another with consistently competitive figures. Should thrive at the mile.
• 4 Swear by It – one start, one win. Came from way back in that one and was very wide into the stretch. Has two decent works at Fair Hill for her return. 

Race 6

• 4 Saint Joseph – Clunked in his debut race but came back to lose by only one and a quarter lengths to a strong Regal Minister. He had to fight that one all the way around the track and perhaps he won’t have it quite so hot on the front end today.
• 3 Got Winged – moved from the turf for his second race and only lost by half a length to the aforementioned Regal Minister. Gets a switch to Lezcano from Rice and that is a positive. Should like the 7 furlong distance.
• 1 Copernicus – had a troubled beginning in the same MSW race but Johnny V stays and that is a good sign. Gets first time Lasix. We’ll give him one more chance to see what he can do with a clean start.
• 7 Mr Harlan – puts the blinkers on after running a middling race in the Regal Minister heat. Worked a bullet 10 days ago and have to expect some improvement today.

Race 7

• 9 North Star Boy – has been fairly consistent this year, and only lost to champion Wise Dan by two and a half in the Baruch. Fits the field, fits the distance and has a win on the AQU turf.
• 2 Sky Blazer – has been running longer distances but is 3 for 7 at the mile and a sixteenth. Only one win this year, and that was a while ago at GP. Was another not too far in back of Wise Dan in the Baruch and the race before that he missed less than a length in the Bowling Green. Good enough to compete in this field.
• 1a Tetradrachm – Claimed by Jacobson last out but before that had been running mainly in graded races. Looking for his first win of the year, and Jacobson is just lights out with 1st off the claim.
• 8 Mutin – comes to America and gets Lasix for Kieran McLaughlin who is 3 for 5 with first time Euro shippers. He hasn’t run particularly fast in Europe and hasn’t threatened in a group race, but a return to the turf from the synthethic track in Dubai should help. Has been working steadily since September so should be fully acclimated.

Race 8

• 7 Frivolity – clearly didn’t care for the sloppy BEL track where she wanted to stay wide and clear of mud being kicked in her face. She pulled up quickly once the race was over. I think you put a line through that race.  Jacobson claimed her out of that race, laid her off six months and decided to start her today. Jacobson claiming a horse has been powerful and off her best she’s competitive here.
• 2 Misszippityslewda – Plenty of tactical speed but perhaps a little less heart in the stretch than I’d prefer. Is dropping in price so that could make the difference between hanging on and getting caught. Does have a place and show at the distance.
• 4 Swakopmund takes a drop for Gary Contessa. He claimed the horse two back and put her on the turf in $50K claimers. She’s back at 7 furlongs on the dirt and given her closing style could be the major beneficiary of a pace duel.
• 3 Guyana – romped for $20K last time and returns at the same distance today. Jumps up a bit in price and may have to duel with the 2 up front, but should be fair odds.

Race 9

• 9 Loveisheartandsoul – this is a very competitive affair, so we’ll go with the horse with the best figures. He finished second on the good turf at a mile at BEL and was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart. He’s got a win in two starts on the AQU turf, is lightly raced and has a nice pressing style.
• 5 Bigger Picture – had been running on dirt and synthetic exclusively with 3 year olds until Linda Rice claimed him and started him on the yielding BEL turf. He closed by the field to nail the victory and basically stays at the same price except now it’s NW3. If he really prefers the turf he’s a factor here
• 11 Honor the Kitten – has been running competitively around this level. Struggled to find the winner’s circle until Jimmy Klesaris took him SAR in July. Since then he has a win and a second. Looks very possible today.
• 3 Permanent Campaign – has run well in 2014, winning his last for Richard Violette. He beat 11 others that day, and although it was at a slightly lower price and condition he fits well with this group. Not a need to lead sort, so should be in a comfortable tracking spot.

• Still waiting for the form to settle and the track to dry out. It’s been an interesting couple of days. Speed has generally not done well – in fact the winning move seems to be staying wide through the stretch. There have been races with lots of speed where only one horse has gone out and races where a horse you wouldn’t expect has wired a field. My strategy will be to not ignore the top trainers, no matter how their horses look, and to look for the fastest horse in the race, After coming off the sandy Belmont surface horses have to adjust to the new course and hopefully we’ll start having more success in the coming weeks,

Race 1

• 4 Artemus Paperboy – Jacobson runner has been running  well since breaking his maiden on the BEL mud. If the outside move is still working, I look for him to be in a good striking position heading for home and his figures are good enough to get the win here.
• 7 Patty and Nooche – claimed two back by Asaf Ronen. He’s a stone closer in a race that isn’t likely to produce a lot of pace. If Cornelio puts him in the right spot he’s got plenty of outs.
• 2 Harley – in 27 starts he’s got 6 seconds and seven thirds to go along with his single win, That makes him a higher probability to finish in the money than win the race.
• 3 Maximus Mike – claimed last out by Gary Gullo who gave him a seven week rest. He started out in the Bill Mott barn at AQU where he broke his maiden going a mile and an eighth over a muddy track. He was claimed at SAR in August by Scott Schwartz and was taken next out by Gullo. I’m thinking this may be more of a prep for something longer, but he’s actually nicely bred for the distance.

Race 2

Is now off the turf. Of the original turf selections, only the 10 was scratched. However the MTO’s 14, 15 and 16 are now in the race. 14 Osie is a Pletcher first time starter by Awesome Again with a very strong wet track rating. He would be a must-use in the verticals and horizontals. 15 Fowler Avenue has two mediocre races on the turf and takes the blinkers off today. He may improve on the dirt but I’m going to have to see something before backing him. Despite the monster wet track rating for 16 Kick Off he totally flopped on a sloppy track last out. He’s another that is going to have to show something before getting any money. Of the horses that stayed in, 2 Mandolin Wins had been on the dirt twice, finishing three lengths behind King of New York. He moves up on the dirt. 5 Wild Dynaformer showed good speed on a fast BEL track last out and really didn’t lose lengths in the stretch. I’d add him to the contenders list.

• 12 King of New York – three seconds and a third in four starts is encouraging on the one hand, but perhaps concerning on the other. He adds blinkers today and that may be enough to get him past the whole field.
• 1 Made in Detroit – been working up a storm at AQU for Richard Violette. Ran evenly on the BEL lawn first out and should be better for having had the experience. At 12-1 ML he could make the picks.
• 11 Ebreeq – purchased for $270K as a yearling. Came out on the BEL turf and set the pace for close to six furlongs in a pretty fair time. Steady works since then for the comback. Dangerous if he can carry his speed.
• 3 Path Dependent – two races on the turf and should benefit from the experience. Last race he broke on top from the far outside and pressed hard for half the race, fading a bit in the stretch. Mark Hennig started to pick up toward the end of the BEL season.

Race 3

• 2 Rap d’Oro – 2 for 3 at AQU and has 3 wins, 3 places in 11 starts this year. Ran Evenly at a mile on a fast track last out, but the three before that were in the goo. Should appreciate the mile distance. Drops a bit in price and that could put him over the top. May have to work to get a good spot from the rail and get clear in the stretch where he does his best running.
• 1/1a My Adonis/Socialsaul – one of them will get scratched since Cornelio is named on both. My Adonis is dropping in price but hasn’t yet had luck at AQU. Socialsaul has two wins in a row and Jacobson jumps him up a level looking for three. Gotta trust Jacobson to leave the best of the two in the race,
• 7 Bedouin Now – Clunker in the slop last out at $30K, although ran a decent race in the mud time before that. Just missed on a fast SAR track at essentially this level three back. Lots of starts this year but still seems to have some fuel left in the tank.
• 4 Little Jimmy – shows plenty of speed and should get the front here. Has not been racing at the A tracks but probably fits at this level. Might not look back if the track is friendly to speed.

Race 4

• 1/1a Bemata /Glickman – Jacobson claimed Bemata for $25K seven weeks ago and wheels him back at the same price. Winner in his last repeated so perhaps that was a strong heat. Glickman is the stronger of the two and the last time he was this low in price he wired the field. Has had a pretty successful 2014 and definitely is the reason the entry is 2-1 on the ML.
• 7 Storm Pursuit – Was claimed last out by Mike Miceli and comes back at the same price. Beat Bemata in his last. Ran most of his career on the turf but seems to have found new life running on the dirt. Plenty of speed but doesn’t seem to be a need to lead type. Strong contender.
• 5 Joe Mooch – has run well in 2014 and was claimed last out by Gary Contessa. He’s only 10% first off the claim but Mooch seems to run well no matter who is conditioning. He is moving from the state-breds to open company but has some pretty good figures and no reason why he can’t be competitive here.
• 8 The Big Deluxe – ran dead last last out but prior to that was running well. Has plenty of speed but will have to deal with Glickman on the front end.

Race 5

• 9 Hope Cross – Broke her maiden at this distance at SAR and then came back to run second on a yielding turf in an 11 horse field. Switches from Castellano to Bravo and that isn’t a positive, but the horse looks strong enough to compensate.
• 5 Sky Painter – Ran nowhere in the 2013BC Juvenile Fillies Turf and laid off until August where she ran second in an ALW race. She came back at BEL and showed a good close. It’s a little concerning that in two starts she hasn’t reached last year’s figure, but she seems to have a lot of talent. Some concern about her style winning at AQU, but if you look at the race two back she pressed the pace and still showed a little close.
• 4 Miss Atomic Bomb – well suited for the mile based on Euro experience. Immediately adds lasix. May not make it to BEL given she’s cross entered in a Laurel race. Looking for a spot and if she goes here you can’t cross her out.
• 6 Morning Star – Showed her speed lately and especially after the claim by Serpe. Jumps up in class today and needs to rise to the occasion if she expects to win.

Race 6

• 10 Partytime Chill – was scheduled to try the turf first time out but that race was washed off and she wound up trying the mud at BEL. She didn’t run badly, pressing the pace for half a mile and ultimately holding on to third. She stays on the dirt today and Dutrow is 28% with second out maidens.
• 8 Movie Starlet – ships in from Laurel where she finished third in a six furlong maiden. Got a good figure from this race despite running wide most of the way around. Is listed at 10-1 on the ML and should be good value at post time.
• 2 Dream On – adds the blinkers for Carlos Martin who is 18% with second start maidens. Broke slowly in the debut but has a series of good works including a speedy last work out of the gate. Puts the blinkers on today and big improvement would be no surprise.
• 3 Golden Gem – First timer for Violette who is 13% with debut maidens. Good series of works for this one.

Race 7

• 1 Aigue Marine – been consistently racing in Grade 3’s this year, winning one and finishing second in two. Irad Ortiz leaves this one for the 5 horse, but he picks up Johnny V and that’s not so bad. Very nice series of turf works for Clement. Has run well on softer turf at AQU previously.
• 5 Danza Cavallo – first start in the U.S. for Chad Brown and he is 27% with first time Euro shippers. Has been running well all year, mostly at the long distances on softer turf. She’s been here for at least a month and a half and has been working regularly so should be ready to go.
• 2 Viva Rafaela – Pletcher trainee is another that has been knocking around with graded players but hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle. Doesn’t get Javier or Johhny V so will take his chances with Bravo who did ride the horse to a third place in the grade 2 New Yotk. Regular maintenance works for the horse. Given her tendency to be heartless in the stretch we’ll have to look for value odds.
• 6 Hellenistic – Racing well at the B Irish tracks but doesn’t show any group races. Still, she’s that most dangerous of horses, the rapidly improving three year-old. Would have liked to have seen some works, so she may lack a bit of stay in the stretch. Perhaps the good Irish trainer Dermott Weld wanted to hang out in the states and see if she improves on Lasix.

Race 8

• 3 Official – seems good on either turf or dirt. Started her career on the dirt, moved to the turf and has been close but no wins in her three turf starts. She did get a win in an off the turfer at BEL in July. The Jacobson trainee looks like she has been well handled this year, and after a summer vacation of three months she came back to run a nice race on the BEL turf. This is the second back off the short layoff and we’re expecting a good one.
• 8 Clean Eleven – Chad Brown trainee is running third off a 15 month layoff. It’s concerning she hasn’t been able to top her maiden winning figure, but Brown does bring her back in a little over two weeks which indicates she make have overcome whatever problems put her on the shelf. Dangerous trainer/jock combo.
• 1 Touching My Toes – hard to gauge just how good the horse is. Was pulled up and walked off at SAR in July. Linda Rice considers herself effective with horses that have physical problems, so I I have no doubt the horse will be able to run. Still, she hasn’t seen anything approaching a fast main track since last November at AQU, and she ran a poor one that day. A bit of a chancey horse, and certainly not inspiring at 7-2, but a contender in this field.
• 6 Jcs American Dream – thoroughbred with a quarter horse sounding name. Only 1 for 15 lifetime, and a tendency to close but fall short. Beat Kelly’s Prize in her last, and that’s enough to give her the nod as the last contender.

Race 9

16 Roman Reign is the MTO that draws in in this off the turf affair. Took the long way home last out but closed courageously to finish a close second. Peter Pugh is a sneaky 20% with limited starters this year and she is definitely a contender.

• 4 Lutheran Miss – almost held off Miss Motivation in her last, and was over six lengths ahead of the third place horse. Has a second on the fast dirt and a third on a wet track, so she’s not limited to the turf.
• 1 Traipse in Utopia – has a couple of dirt starts at AQU before shifting to the turf. Finally dropped into MCL last out and stays at the level today. We’ll know how the track is playing by this race, and whether staying on the rail compromises her chances.
• 12 Senso – is trained by David Jacobson. Was not much on the dirt first three of her career, and improved markedly on the turf, but given the trainer, she’s worth adding in the mix.
• 8 Confessa – is somewhat hidden for Danny Gargan. She finished second in a $40K MCL and then went on the turf in a straight MSW and then in a dirt MSW. She’s back with the claiming folk today and could be a surprise.

I quipped today (with no reaction) that it was gloomy at Aqueduct – and the weather wasn’t so good either. I’m planning on the turf races being moved to the main, but we’ll find out in the morning.

Race 1

• 7 False Positive – raced a week ago at 6 1/2 furlongs and at today’s level. He seems to be more at home on the AQU dirt and the addition of blinkers last time got him to focus a little more. Of the horses with experience, he might be the best.
• 1 Back Scatter – started off on the BEL turf and then shipped down to Laurel where he managed a good 4th place finish. He’s back in NY and  although the price looks a little higher, given the difference in circuits and the move to state-breds, he might actually be taking a drop in class. Good outs today.
• 3 Fit to Keep – never got into his debut start but seems to be working usefully in the morning. Went off 3-2 first out so somebody thought he was a runner. Fairly good wet track rating. Has to beat the horse who beat him last out.
• 4 Doctor Red – dropping from MSW on the turf to this dirt affair. Adds blinkers and Lasix. All those changes might be the tonic he needs to hit the top today.

Race 2

• 1 Stage Name – claimed last out by R N Falcone, a 4 for 31 trainer who decided to try him back on the dirt. He has an 11 length win at AQU on a good track. Been a little suspect in the stretch but does have a quick workout nine days ago and perhaps the price drop keeps her in front all the way. Irad aboard doesn’t hurt his chances.
• 4 Over My Head – 10 starts this year and zero wins but her one win did come on a wet track. She isn’t likely to catch a field this weak very often so this is probably her best shot at a win.
• 7 Golden Cheetah – has a second on a wet track, although the 1 for 21 record is not very inspiring. Another one that might benefit from the weak field,
• 2 Lady Halite – has plenty of early foot and a third in two tries on a wet track. Hasn’t had a lot of success at the NY “A” tracks but you have to respect Englehart.

Race 3

• 6 Abide in Me – Took 10 starts to break her maiden but ran reasonably well against winners on a sloppy track, Listed at 4-5 on the ML and while she looks pretty good in here, odds-on might be a little optimistic. Still, she has far and away the top figures.
• 4 Lady Rhubarb – flopped on the SAR turf but was much better on the AQU dirt. A little faint hearted in the stretch, and will have to concern herself with the speed to her inside, Has two thirds in two tries at AQU and one third in one try on the wet track.
• 3 Player to Be Named – best speed in the race and only five lifetime starts. Remains to be seen if she takes to AQU and a moist track.

Race 4

• 1a Melville – had a horror trip last out and was flattered when Wake Up and Go strongly beat a field Wednesday. May not stay in the race if it is moved off the turf but is a huge danger if it stays.
• 9 Sassicaia – one of the MTO’s. Fourth of six in the Tesio and ran a good one last out at Parx. If the race goes on the dirt he’s the one to beat.
• 11 Jazz Player – another of the MTO’s. Ran well on a muddy BEL track and has a quick work inbetween. Takes the blinkers off today. Can’t leave him out of the picks.
• 5 Something Awesome – first timer for Sherriffs gets Johnny V. Good wet track number and the most interesting of the firsters.

Race 5

• 2 St Moose – two wins and two seconds in five tries on a wet track. Has some nice tactical speed and is 4 of 7 at the distance. Claimed two back – in fact in his last five he’s been claimed four times. Has a quick workout nine days ago. Lots of positives.
• 6 Spa City Fever – hard-knocking 8 year-old has been good at the distance and on a wet track. Perhaps a little heartless in the stretch, but still has competitive numbers and David Jacobson training. Was only 3/4 length behind top pick St. Moose last out.
• 3 Percussion – been off since May but has had distance, wet track and AQU success in the past. Has graded race experience and the always helpful services of Todd Pletcher. Perhaps a little over-enthusiastic at a 2-1 ML but still a contender.
• 7 Tenango – 60% of his wins have been on a wet track and he has two seconds in two tries at AQU. Primarily a sprinter. Jacobson/Cornelio a 25% combo.

Race 6

• 1a Royal Posse – a win and a second in four starts on the wet track. Plenty of speed and good figures lately.
• 12 This Hard Land – ten races on the wet track with two wins. Has recently been with better and has a win over the AQU dirt.
• 7 Testosterstone – won this April in an off the turf affair at AQU. Laid off until October when he ran a 7 furlong race on the turf at BEL. He showed some early interest but didn’t have the condition to finish. He’s much better as a dirt horse and although he won’t be 30-1 he might be a good enough price to back.

Race 7

• 3 Bernie the Maestro – 8 of 10 in the money on a wet track. Tracked in his last race and couldn’t get to the front, but still has a nice figure. Pretty much the same price level and in good condition so he has to be given serious consideration.
• 6 Santa Elf – two wet track races and two strong wins. Has been primarily in ALW NW1X races and drops to the level at which Bruce Brown took him. Good figures and should be rolling in the stretch.
• 8 Herbal Prospector – claimed last out by Dutrow. Has plenty of early speed and is five of seven in the money on a wet track.
• 2b For Love of Lil – Contessa runner is 6-2-2-2 on the wet track. More of a closing style and that was winning on Thursday. Hasn’t been this distance but should adapt to it. Didn’t like the turf last out and didn’t adapt well to the mile and a quarter time before that. A little hidden but definitely a contender.

Race 8

• It’s now a five horse race and MTO Groomedforvictory is listed as 4-5 on the ML. Modern Child is the other MTO. Given the uninspiring nature of the runners in this race, he will be lucky to go off that high. No insight here beyond the two MTO’s.

Race 9

• 4 Kisses for Romeo – went off at 5-2 in her five furlong debut at SAR and ran a good learning race. Has had a steady series of workouts for her return and should improve today.
• 1/1a Midnight Citra/Theophilia – since Alvarado is named on both one will scratch. Mott runners always need a race or two and both of these have experience. Midnight Citra may be the better of the two at a sprint distance.
• 2 All too Many – first timer for Pletcher has been working steadily if not remarkably for debut. Paid 15 times the stud price so we can expect some talent.
• 7 Loaded for Bear – Ships in from Woodbine for Jacobson who is 27% with horses debuting in his stable. Ran second in a Canadian-bred sprint in a fair time. Given the trainer it’s not unreasonable to expect an improvement.

Race 1

• 7 Seven Stars – the hunch bet of the year. How could you not bet a horse with seven in its name breaking from the 7 post? Well that and the fact that she is a Jacobson claim coming back at a reduced price. She’s better on the fast dirt but does have a third on a wet track. She’s in that critical third back off a layoff. This is not a high grade field, and the horse has a good dose of back class. She’s 9-5 on the ML and you’ll be lucky to get that.
• 6 Kiss Cat – has been showing decent speed and is probably better suited for six furlongs. She’s 0 for 11 on the fast dirt but 2 of 4 on the wet track. Has been a little over-raced in 2014, but seems to take to AQU as well as any track.
• 4 Jealous – Drops way down off her last two, but she’s probably at the right price today. A little uninspiring at 2 for 28, but did have a nice work 12 days ago.
• 3 Appearance – Dropping to the level where she has a shot to win. Most of her races have been against 3 year-olds. Trainer change to Bernardo Callejas from Bruce Levine is not a big positive.

Race 2

Worst race of the year so far. Welcome to Aqueduct. There isn’t a horse that has a 1, 2, 3, or 4 in its past performance at any call in the race.

• 6 Sister Charm – dropping from MSW. Hoping the fast work on 9/29 means she has speed. It’s discouraging though that she hasn’t been on the track since then. She’s well-bred for the distance. As long as we’re taking a stab, might as well stab at 10-1.
• 8 Oohlala – showed a little more when dropped to MCL. Has the monster 52 Beyer and that is what makes her 4-5 on the ML. Don’t be fooled too much – she stinks, just a little less than some others.
• 1 Yellow Cello – couldn’t get out of her own way at the break last out, but at least she has an excuse and in this group it’s good enough to use her.

Race 3

• 3 Doublicious – another one with speed and may compromise the 2. She’s dropping way down and trainer Abigail Adsit has been quietly having a good year.
• 5 South Sound – Has been running well lately, although has had some issues getting by horses in the stretch. Mostly likely to have first run at the leaders into the stretch.
• 2 Star Magnolia – lots of speed and probably isn’t useful beyond 6 furlongs. If she gets out on her own she has a good chance to hold on.

Race 4

• 5 Stonely Heart – showed a lot of interest first time out, just missing to Kleptocrat. Decent figure and a useful work since then.
• 8 Moonlight Fantasy – lots of speed but not so much heart. Finished behind both the 5 and the 12 after having the lead in the stretch. Have to believe she’s getting a little better and might be a little stronger this time.
• 12 Moldavite – ran with the 8 and outfinished her, albeit by a nose. Expecting these three to duel again.
• 2 Bossy Boots – last race first two finishers have already come back to win, and second last race winner has repeated. Of course, those races were seven months ago, although the last was on the AQU main dirt. Has some useful breezes leading up to this one.

Race 5

With the race off the turf the MTO Lotsa Noodles looks good. The other MTO House Rules has primarily been running graded races this year, and the last time she didn’t run a graded stake she won by six and a half. 

• 4 Marbre Rose – ran a good one for Clement in a yielding BEL turf three weeks ago, and before that was Group placed in Europe. Looks like Lasix has made a difference for the horse. Best horse in the field as long as we don’t see a Euro bounce.
• 5 Party Now – lightly raced horse that was competitive in the Wonder Again last May. Perhaps the rest has allowed her to mature. Certainly has competitive figures and McGaughey is very good with layoff horses.
• 9 Rubindy – Chad Brown is on top of the world after the Breeder’s Cup  and is back home with the New York stable. Ran a good one first on the turf and improvement wouldn’t be a surprise.
• 8 Neolexia – Always seems to be around at the end, but some trouble getting the top prize.

Race 6

• 3 We Fly Private – improved on the slop and looks like he’ll have another chance to improve today.
• 7 Jimmy Soul – starting to look like a professional maiden, but has a big wet track rating. Perhaps the claim by RuRod gets him on the right track.
• 5 Alyish – six starts and not a lot of success, but he does have a good turn of speed and on this track it may help.

Race 7

• 1 Old Upstart – claimed by Abigail Adsit last out after running a good second in the slop. Has the right style and figures to do well today.
• 3 Sean and Matt – ran away from a $50K maiden field last out after being off nine months. Looks like he matured during the time off and fits in this group.
• 10 Oltre’ Oro – been off since spring at AQU but has a good series of works for the comeback.
• 8 Invasion Point – powerful rating on the wet track and he’s coming off a strong maiden win, albeit with a lesser group.

Race 8

• 8 Cool Samurai – Sherriffs runner ran well at BEL after coming back east from Santa Anita. Major distinction is that he finished second to Wicked Strong in his debut outing. Has the wet track rating to dominate this group.
• 3 Celebrated Talent – a win and two seconds on the wet surface, and that makes him dangerous today. Loves the distance as well.
• 5 Apex – In good condition for low profile connections. Often around for a piece at the end.
• 1A – M J Plus – won an $8K starter allowance at Parx and was probably the stronger of the two horse entry. 3 wins in seven wet track starts.

Race 9

• 6 Great Cross – won on a muddy BEL track last out and was taken by Maker. That’s the best race she’s run in a while and maybe the moisture gives her two in a row.
• 7 Bartiromo – finally ran on a wet track last out and finished a distant second. That was encouraging enough for trainer Barbara to keep him in this off the turfer.
• 9 Malibu Queen – nothing special about her wet track races but with the shortened field, she has a chance.