Selections

Aqueduct November 7

I quipped today (with no reaction) that it was gloomy at Aqueduct – and the weather wasn’t so good either. I’m planning on the turf races being moved to the main, but we’ll find out in the morning.

Race 1

  • 7 False Positive – raced a week ago at 6 1/2 furlongs and at today’s level. He seems to be more at home on the AQU dirt and the addition of blinkers last time got him to focus a little more. Of the horses with experience, he might be the best.
  • 1 Back Scatter – started off on the BEL turf and then shipped down to Laurel where he managed a good 4th place finish. He’s back in NY and  although the price looks a little higher, given the difference in circuits and the move to state-breds, he might actually be taking a drop in class. Good outs today.
  • 3 Fit to Keep – never got into his debut start but seems to be working usefully in the morning. Went off 3-2 first out so somebody thought he was a runner. Fairly good wet track rating. Has to beat the horse who beat him last out.
  • 4 Doctor Red – dropping from MSW on the turf to this dirt affair. Adds blinkers and Lasix. All those changes might be the tonic he needs to hit the top today.

Race 2

  • 1 Stage Name – claimed last out by R N Falcone, a 4 for 31 trainer who decided to try him back on the dirt. He has an 11 length win at AQU on a good track. Been a little suspect in the stretch but does have a quick workout nine days ago and perhaps the price drop keeps her in front all the way. Irad aboard doesn’t hurt his chances.
  • 4 Over My Head – 10 starts this year and zero wins but her one win did come on a wet track. She isn’t likely to catch a field this weak very often so this is probably her best shot at a win.
  • 7 Golden Cheetah – has a second on a wet track, although the 1 for 21 record is not very inspiring. Another one that might benefit from the weak field,
  • 2 Lady Halite – has plenty of early foot and a third in two tries on a wet track. Hasn’t had a lot of success at the NY “A” tracks but you have to respect Englehart.

Race 3

  • 6 Abide in Me – Took 10 starts to break her maiden but ran reasonably well against winners on a sloppy track, Listed at 4-5 on the ML and while she looks pretty good in here, odds-on might be a little optimistic. Still, she has far and away the top figures.
  • 4 Lady Rhubarb – flopped on the SAR turf but was much better on the AQU dirt. A little faint hearted in the stretch, and will have to concern herself with the speed to her inside, Has two thirds in two tries at AQU and one third in one try on the wet track.
  • 3 Player to Be Named – best speed in the race and only five lifetime starts. Remains to be seen if she takes to AQU and a moist track.

Race 4

  • 1a Melville – had a horror trip last out and was flattered when Wake Up and Go strongly beat a field Wednesday. May not stay in the race if it is moved off the turf but is a huge danger if it stays.
  • 9 Sassicaia – one of the MTO’s. Fourth of six in the Tesio and ran a good one last out at Parx. If the race goes on the dirt he’s the one to beat.
  • 11 Jazz Player – another of the MTO’s. Ran well on a muddy BEL track and has a quick work inbetween. Takes the blinkers off today. Can’t leave him out of the picks.
  • 5 Something Awesome – first timer for Sherriffs gets Johnny V. Good wet track number and the most interesting of the firsters.

Race 5

  • 2 St Moose – two wins and two seconds in five tries on a wet track. Has some nice tactical speed and is 4 of 7 at the distance. Claimed two back – in fact in his last five he’s been claimed four times. Has a quick workout nine days ago. Lots of positives.
  • 6 Spa City Fever – hard-knocking 8 year-old has been good at the distance and on a wet track. Perhaps a little heartless in the stretch, but still has competitive numbers and David Jacobson training. Was only 3/4 length behind top pick St. Moose last out.
  • 3 Percussion – been off since May but has had distance, wet track and AQU success in the past. Has graded race experience and the always helpful services of Todd Pletcher. Perhaps a little over-enthusiastic at a 2-1 ML but still a contender.
  • 7 Tenango – 60% of his wins have been on a wet track and he has two seconds in two tries at AQU. Primarily a sprinter. Jacobson/Cornelio a 25% combo.

Race 6

  • 1a Royal Posse – a win and a second in four starts on the wet track. Plenty of speed and good figures lately.
  • 12 This Hard Land – ten races on the wet track with two wins. Has recently been with better and has a win over the AQU dirt.
  • 7 Testosterstone – won this April in an off the turf affair at AQU. Laid off until October when he ran a 7 furlong race on the turf at BEL. He showed some early interest but didn’t have the condition to finish. He’s much better as a dirt horse and although he won’t be 30-1 he might be a good enough price to back.

Race 7

  • 3 Bernie the Maestro – 8 of 10 in the money on a wet track. Tracked in his last race and couldn’t get to the front, but still has a nice figure. Pretty much the same price level and in good condition so he has to be given serious consideration.
  • 6 Santa Elf – two wet track races and two strong wins. Has been primarily in ALW NW1X races and drops to the level at which Bruce Brown took him. Good figures and should be rolling in the stretch.
  • 8 Herbal Prospector – claimed last out by Dutrow. Has plenty of early speed and is five of seven in the money on a wet track.
  • 2b For Love of Lil – Contessa runner is 6-2-2-2 on the wet track. More of a closing style and that was winning on Thursday. Hasn’t been this distance but should adapt to it. Didn’t like the turf last out and didn’t adapt well to the mile and a quarter time before that. A little hidden but definitely a contender.

Race 8

  • It’s now a five horse race and MTO Groomedforvictory is listed as 4-5 on the ML. Modern Child is the other MTO. Given the uninspiring nature of the runners in this race, he will be lucky to go off that high. No insight here beyond the two MTO’s.

Race 9

  • 4 Kisses for Romeo – went off at 5-2 in her five furlong debut at SAR and ran a good learning race. Has had a steady series of workouts for her return and should improve today.
  • 1/1a Midnight Citra/Theophilia – since Alvarado is named on both one will scratch. Mott runners always need a race or two and both of these have experience. Midnight Citra may be the better of the two at a sprint distance.
  • 2 All too Many – first timer for Pletcher has been working steadily if not remarkably for debut. Paid 15 times the stud price so we can expect some talent.
  • 7 Loaded for Bear – Ships in from Woodbine for Jacobson who is 27% with horses debuting in his stable. Ran second in a Canadian-bred sprint in a fair time. Given the trainer it’s not unreasonable to expect an improvement.