Selections

Aqueduct November 8

  • Still waiting for the form to settle and the track to dry out. It’s been an interesting couple of days. Speed has generally not done well – in fact the winning move seems to be staying wide through the stretch. There have been races with lots of speed where only one horse has gone out and races where a horse you wouldn’t expect has wired a field. My strategy will be to not ignore the top trainers, no matter how their horses look, and to look for the fastest horse in the race, After coming off the sandy Belmont surface horses have to adjust to the new course and hopefully we’ll start having more success in the coming weeks,

Race 1

  • 4 Artemus Paperboy – Jacobson runner has been running  well since breaking his maiden on the BEL mud. If the outside move is still working, I look for him to be in a good striking position heading for home and his figures are good enough to get the win here.
  • 7 Patty and Nooche – claimed two back by Asaf Ronen. He’s a stone closer in a race that isn’t likely to produce a lot of pace. If Cornelio puts him in the right spot he’s got plenty of outs.
  • 2 Harley – in 27 starts he’s got 6 seconds and seven thirds to go along with his single win, That makes him a higher probability to finish in the money than win the race.
  • 3 Maximus Mike – claimed last out by Gary Gullo who gave him a seven week rest. He started out in the Bill Mott barn at AQU where he broke his maiden going a mile and an eighth over a muddy track. He was claimed at SAR in August by Scott Schwartz and was taken next out by Gullo. I’m thinking this may be more of a prep for something longer, but he’s actually nicely bred for the distance.

Race 2

Is now off the turf. Of the original turf selections, only the 10 was scratched. However the MTO’s 14, 15 and 16 are now in the race. 14 Osie is a Pletcher first time starter by Awesome Again with a very strong wet track rating. He would be a must-use in the verticals and horizontals. 15 Fowler Avenue has two mediocre races on the turf and takes the blinkers off today. He may improve on the dirt but I’m going to have to see something before backing him. Despite the monster wet track rating for 16 Kick Off he totally flopped on a sloppy track last out. He’s another that is going to have to show something before getting any money. Of the horses that stayed in, 2 Mandolin Wins had been on the dirt twice, finishing three lengths behind King of New York. He moves up on the dirt. 5 Wild Dynaformer showed good speed on a fast BEL track last out and really didn’t lose lengths in the stretch. I’d add him to the contenders list.

  • 12 King of New York – three seconds and a third in four starts is encouraging on the one hand, but perhaps concerning on the other. He adds blinkers today and that may be enough to get him past the whole field.
  • 1 Made in Detroit – been working up a storm at AQU for Richard Violette. Ran evenly on the BEL lawn first out and should be better for having had the experience. At 12-1 ML he could make the picks.
  • 11 Ebreeq – purchased for $270K as a yearling. Came out on the BEL turf and set the pace for close to six furlongs in a pretty fair time. Steady works since then for the comback. Dangerous if he can carry his speed.
  • 3 Path Dependent – two races on the turf and should benefit from the experience. Last race he broke on top from the far outside and pressed hard for half the race, fading a bit in the stretch. Mark Hennig started to pick up toward the end of the BEL season.

Race 3

  • 2 Rap d’Oro – 2 for 3 at AQU and has 3 wins, 3 places in 11 starts this year. Ran Evenly at a mile on a fast track last out, but the three before that were in the goo. Should appreciate the mile distance. Drops a bit in price and that could put him over the top. May have to work to get a good spot from the rail and get clear in the stretch where he does his best running.
  • 1/1a My Adonis/Socialsaul – one of them will get scratched since Cornelio is named on both. My Adonis is dropping in price but hasn’t yet had luck at AQU. Socialsaul has two wins in a row and Jacobson jumps him up a level looking for three. Gotta trust Jacobson to leave the best of the two in the race,
  • 7 Bedouin Now – Clunker in the slop last out at $30K, although ran a decent race in the mud time before that. Just missed on a fast SAR track at essentially this level three back. Lots of starts this year but still seems to have some fuel left in the tank.
  • 4 Little Jimmy – shows plenty of speed and should get the front here. Has not been racing at the A tracks but probably fits at this level. Might not look back if the track is friendly to speed.

Race 4

  • 1/1a Bemata /Glickman – Jacobson claimed Bemata for $25K seven weeks ago and wheels him back at the same price. Winner in his last repeated so perhaps that was a strong heat. Glickman is the stronger of the two and the last time he was this low in price he wired the field. Has had a pretty successful 2014 and definitely is the reason the entry is 2-1 on the ML.
  • 7 Storm Pursuit – Was claimed last out by Mike Miceli and comes back at the same price. Beat Bemata in his last. Ran most of his career on the turf but seems to have found new life running on the dirt. Plenty of speed but doesn’t seem to be a need to lead type. Strong contender.
  • 5 Joe Mooch – has run well in 2014 and was claimed last out by Gary Contessa. He’s only 10% first off the claim but Mooch seems to run well no matter who is conditioning. He is moving from the state-breds to open company but has some pretty good figures and no reason why he can’t be competitive here.
  • 8 The Big Deluxe – ran dead last last out but prior to that was running well. Has plenty of speed but will have to deal with Glickman on the front end.

Race 5

  • 9 Hope Cross – Broke her maiden at this distance at SAR and then came back to run second on a yielding turf in an 11 horse field. Switches from Castellano to Bravo and that isn’t a positive, but the horse looks strong enough to compensate.
  • 5 Sky Painter – Ran nowhere in the 2013BC Juvenile Fillies Turf and laid off until August where she ran second in an ALW race. She came back at BEL and showed a good close. It’s a little concerning that in two starts she hasn’t reached last year’s figure, but she seems to have a lot of talent. Some concern about her style winning at AQU, but if you look at the race two back she pressed the pace and still showed a little close.
  • 4 Miss Atomic Bomb – well suited for the mile based on Euro experience. Immediately adds lasix. May not make it to BEL given she’s cross entered in a Laurel race. Looking for a spot and if she goes here you can’t cross her out.
  • 6 Morning Star – Showed her speed lately and especially after the claim by Serpe. Jumps up in class today and needs to rise to the occasion if she expects to win.

Race 6

  • 10 Partytime Chill – was scheduled to try the turf first time out but that race was washed off and she wound up trying the mud at BEL. She didn’t run badly, pressing the pace for half a mile and ultimately holding on to third. She stays on the dirt today and Dutrow is 28% with second out maidens.
  • 8 Movie Starlet – ships in from Laurel where she finished third in a six furlong maiden. Got a good figure from this race despite running wide most of the way around. Is listed at 10-1 on the ML and should be good value at post time.
  • 2 Dream On – adds the blinkers for Carlos Martin who is 18% with second start maidens. Broke slowly in the debut but has a series of good works including a speedy last work out of the gate. Puts the blinkers on today and big improvement would be no surprise.
  • 3 Golden Gem – First timer for Violette who is 13% with debut maidens. Good series of works for this one.

Race 7

  • 1 Aigue Marine – been consistently racing in Grade 3’s this year, winning one and finishing second in two. Irad Ortiz leaves this one for the 5 horse, but he picks up Johnny V and that’s not so bad. Very nice series of turf works for Clement. Has run well on softer turf at AQU previously.
  • 5 Danza Cavallo – first start in the U.S. for Chad Brown and he is 27% with first time Euro shippers. Has been running well all year, mostly at the long distances on softer turf. She’s been here for at least a month and a half and has been working regularly so should be ready to go.
  • 2 Viva Rafaela – Pletcher trainee is another that has been knocking around with graded players but hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle. Doesn’t get Javier or Johhny V so will take his chances with Bravo who did ride the horse to a third place in the grade 2 New Yotk. Regular maintenance works for the horse. Given her tendency to be heartless in the stretch we’ll have to look for value odds.
  • 6 Hellenistic – Racing well at the B Irish tracks but doesn’t show any group races. Still, she’s that most dangerous of horses, the rapidly improving three year-old. Would have liked to have seen some works, so she may lack a bit of stay in the stretch. Perhaps the good Irish trainer Dermott Weld wanted to hang out in the states and see if she improves on Lasix.

Race 8

  • 3 Official – seems good on either turf or dirt. Started her career on the dirt, moved to the turf and has been close but no wins in her three turf starts. She did get a win in an off the turfer at BEL in July. The Jacobson trainee looks like she has been well handled this year, and after a summer vacation of three months she came back to run a nice race on the BEL turf. This is the second back off the short layoff and we’re expecting a good one.
  • 8 Clean Eleven – Chad Brown trainee is running third off a 15 month layoff. It’s concerning she hasn’t been able to top her maiden winning figure, but Brown does bring her back in a little over two weeks which indicates she make have overcome whatever problems put her on the shelf. Dangerous trainer/jock combo.
  • 1 Touching My Toes – hard to gauge just how good the horse is. Was pulled up and walked off at SAR in July. Linda Rice considers herself effective with horses that have physical problems, so I I have no doubt the horse will be able to run. Still, she hasn’t seen anything approaching a fast main track since last November at AQU, and she ran a poor one that day. A bit of a chancey horse, and certainly not inspiring at 7-2, but a contender in this field.
  • 6 Jcs American Dream – thoroughbred with a quarter horse sounding name. Only 1 for 15 lifetime, and a tendency to close but fall short. Beat Kelly’s Prize in her last, and that’s enough to give her the nod as the last contender.

Race 9

16 Roman Reign is the MTO that draws in in this off the turf affair. Took the long way home last out but closed courageously to finish a close second. Peter Pugh is a sneaky 20% with limited starters this year and she is definitely a contender.

  • 4 Lutheran Miss – almost held off Miss Motivation in her last, and was over six lengths ahead of the third place horse. Has a second on the fast dirt and a third on a wet track, so she’s not limited to the turf.
  • 1 Traipse in Utopia – has a couple of dirt starts at AQU before shifting to the turf. Finally dropped into MCL last out and stays at the level today. We’ll know how the track is playing by this race, and whether staying on the rail compromises her chances.
  • 12 Senso – is trained by David Jacobson. Was not much on the dirt first three of her career, and improved markedly on the turf, but given the trainer, she’s worth adding in the mix.
  • 8 Confessa – is somewhat hidden for Danny Gargan. She finished second in a $40K MCL and then went on the turf in a straight MSW and then in a dirt MSW. She’s back with the claiming folk today and could be a surprise.