This is an extremely competitive day. Getting some of the races down to four horses was difficult. Lots of turf horses moving onto the dirt for the winter season, and many don’t have any dirt form. Good luck to everyone today.

Race 1

• 7 Opener – was wide moving on to the backstretch in a turf race and was bumped hard entering the backstretch. Stayed wide throughout, looked a little anxious when she tugged Luzzi into third, but ran out of energy around the far turn. Drops from $50K to $20 K today and changes jockeys to Dylan Davis. Steve Jerkens gave her two recent workouts, nothing special but she should be ready to roll today. She’s a Rock Hard filly so she should be fine with the dirt switch.
• 1 Bay Dawn – has done her best running at FL where she nearly broke her maiden. Her last was on the turf and she’s shown no affinity for the lawn in two starts. Given the weak field, she’s got plenty of outs.
• 3 Bay Road – Been on a break since May 2013 and trainer Randi Persaud is 0 for 14 with long layoff horses. Still she had better figures as a 3 year old than any other horse in the race and has a decent dirt pedigree. If she is over her obvious physical issues she could be the winner.
• 6 Tenacious Indeed hasn’t yet been on the dirt although her best turf races have figures that would be competitive in this field. Perhaps the X factor in this race.
• I’m honestly having trouble throwing anyone else in the win mix. Our Favorite Place showed a tiny bit of talent on the MED lawn at five furlongs but only has two really poor dirt races. You Take the Cake is a 23 start maiden but does have five seconds, so she might be useful in combination bests. That’s No Limit is an 11 start maiden with a recent string of poor races. Too Many Pockets hasn’t been closer than 19 lengths in four lifetime starts. This is a poor field and I’d caution investing at your own risk.

Race 2

• 1 Seeking – second start for Mott who doesn’t have much of a reputation with first timers. She broke second last and closed steadily through out the race despite a dawdling pace. Had a useful work 6 days ago. Regular rider Alvarado is up.
• 4 Accord – goes for Leah Gyamati. Unlucky to have both her first two races wash off the turf and being a Lemon Drop Kid the turf and the distance should be to her liking. Steady works since her last.
• 8 Trensita – ran a good second at this distance on the BEL turf. Comes back with a steady series of works at Fair Hill. Doesn’t have to improve much to be in the mix.
• 10 Lismore – ran second in a 7 furlong sprint and adds Lasix today. Worked a bullet five days ago and Cornelio stays.
• Lots of other interesting horses to look at. Cover Up has three decent dirt starts and tries the turf for the first time. Violinist is a first timer for Todd Pletcher and how often does one of his horses get listed at 12-1 ML. Tiz Jeweled went in a race that washed off the turf and with Clement training she could make a big improvement on the green. Bishops Pond is a first timer for Chad Brown and he is something of a genius with 2 year old turf fillies. She might be one to throw in just because of the connections. Finally, any of the three also eligibles would have to be considered if they drew in.

Race 3

• 5 Ridingwiththedevil – winner last out for Abby Adsit and hasn’t run a really bad one in a while. Seemed to be developing some seconditis but after she was claimed, Adsit put fronts and blinkers on and the horse ran away from a MSW field in a good time. Should enjoy the cutback to six furlongs.
• 3 Wraith – 6-5 ML favorite has thrown four second place finishes in a row and that is not really positive. But has been at the class level and has the figures to compete.
• 1 Vision of Mine – last at Parx is a little hidden – she was only a length and a half out at the six furlong call. Puts the blinkers on and that may focus her enough to be in the picture.

Race 4

• 2 Blue Collar Cat – was running fairly well in MSW last year. Laid off a full year and came out at six and a half at BEL where he ran well after being slightly bumped at the break. Definitely needed the race and given his front running style she should be able to get a good initial position. Encouraging sign that Johnny V stays.
• 5 Blue Shark – only one race on a fast dirt track and that was a decent effort, but he is dropping from MSW and that should be a big help. Should be tracking and we’ll see if he has the stamina to get by everyone.
• 4 Fictional Character – one race on a fast dirt and he just missed. That has to be enough to put him in the contender category.
• 6 Greg’s Fourwheeler – Dropping from MSW and has been ok on the dirt. Improved out of the gate last time when he put the shades on and that race can be excused because the track was soupy. Ran evenly at a mile and might be the value play.

Race 5

Frustratingly now off the turf. Of the MTO’s, 15 Nonnie Connie is 2 for 22 and may catch a piece but I just can’t back horses with that kind of percentage with any enthusiasm.

• 8 Bella Kateri – had been knocking on the door before she won her maiden drawing away. Like the pressing style and the nice series of works after two months rest.
• 3 Thatza Wrap – has run decently on the yielding turf. Don’t necessarily like that this is her fifth try at the NW1X level but she has run consistent figures and is good enough on her best to get a piece.
• 6 Lady Kreesa – has not really run a bad one in a seven race career., including two races in the NY Stallion Series. Another with consistently competitive figures. Should thrive at the mile.
• 4 Swear by It – one start, one win. Came from way back in that one and was very wide into the stretch. Has two decent works at Fair Hill for her return. 

Race 6

• 4 Saint Joseph – Clunked in his debut race but came back to lose by only one and a quarter lengths to a strong Regal Minister. He had to fight that one all the way around the track and perhaps he won’t have it quite so hot on the front end today.
• 3 Got Winged – moved from the turf for his second race and only lost by half a length to the aforementioned Regal Minister. Gets a switch to Lezcano from Rice and that is a positive. Should like the 7 furlong distance.
• 1 Copernicus – had a troubled beginning in the same MSW race but Johnny V stays and that is a good sign. Gets first time Lasix. We’ll give him one more chance to see what he can do with a clean start.
• 7 Mr Harlan – puts the blinkers on after running a middling race in the Regal Minister heat. Worked a bullet 10 days ago and have to expect some improvement today.

Race 7

• 9 North Star Boy – has been fairly consistent this year, and only lost to champion Wise Dan by two and a half in the Baruch. Fits the field, fits the distance and has a win on the AQU turf.
• 2 Sky Blazer – has been running longer distances but is 3 for 7 at the mile and a sixteenth. Only one win this year, and that was a while ago at GP. Was another not too far in back of Wise Dan in the Baruch and the race before that he missed less than a length in the Bowling Green. Good enough to compete in this field.
• 1a Tetradrachm – Claimed by Jacobson last out but before that had been running mainly in graded races. Looking for his first win of the year, and Jacobson is just lights out with 1st off the claim.
• 8 Mutin – comes to America and gets Lasix for Kieran McLaughlin who is 3 for 5 with first time Euro shippers. He hasn’t run particularly fast in Europe and hasn’t threatened in a group race, but a return to the turf from the synthethic track in Dubai should help. Has been working steadily since September so should be fully acclimated.

Race 8

• 7 Frivolity – clearly didn’t care for the sloppy BEL track where she wanted to stay wide and clear of mud being kicked in her face. She pulled up quickly once the race was over. I think you put a line through that race.  Jacobson claimed her out of that race, laid her off six months and decided to start her today. Jacobson claiming a horse has been powerful and off her best she’s competitive here.
• 2 Misszippityslewda – Plenty of tactical speed but perhaps a little less heart in the stretch than I’d prefer. Is dropping in price so that could make the difference between hanging on and getting caught. Does have a place and show at the distance.
• 4 Swakopmund takes a drop for Gary Contessa. He claimed the horse two back and put her on the turf in $50K claimers. She’s back at 7 furlongs on the dirt and given her closing style could be the major beneficiary of a pace duel.
• 3 Guyana – romped for $20K last time and returns at the same distance today. Jumps up a bit in price and may have to duel with the 2 up front, but should be fair odds.

Race 9

• 9 Loveisheartandsoul – this is a very competitive affair, so we’ll go with the horse with the best figures. He finished second on the good turf at a mile at BEL and was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart. He’s got a win in two starts on the AQU turf, is lightly raced and has a nice pressing style.
• 5 Bigger Picture – had been running on dirt and synthetic exclusively with 3 year olds until Linda Rice claimed him and started him on the yielding BEL turf. He closed by the field to nail the victory and basically stays at the same price except now it’s NW3. If he really prefers the turf he’s a factor here
• 11 Honor the Kitten – has been running competitively around this level. Struggled to find the winner’s circle until Jimmy Klesaris took him SAR in July. Since then he has a win and a second. Looks very possible today.
• 3 Permanent Campaign – has run well in 2014, winning his last for Richard Violette. He beat 11 others that day, and although it was at a slightly lower price and condition he fits well with this group. Not a need to lead sort, so should be in a comfortable tracking spot.