The mid-week cards have been disappointing at Belmont. Races either look like only one horse can win or nobody can win. The “co-features” are a pair of NW1X Allowance races for state breds circled by three maiden races, three claiming races, and an optional claimer. I can guarantee this – there will be a couple of races where you’ll be scratching your head about the winner, especially now that they have taken three of the six scheduled races off the turf.

Race 1

Stays on the turf, scratch the MTO, Lotasa Noodles.

• 6 Kenzadargent – was racing in Group races as recently as June; won his last at about this class; had serious seconditis in Europe but isn’t up against much today. Looks like another winner’s circle picture for Brown and Irad.
• 2 Almost an Angel – is listed at 10-1 and isn’t any worse than others in here; trainer hitting at 24% this year and the combo with Gabriel Saez has been even higher. As much right to place as anyone.

Race 2

• 1 Invasion Point – has been fading badly in longer races and on the turf. but his best race was on the dirt at a mile and an eighth; drops another notch in claiming price  and takes the blinkers off. Maker 22% turf to dirt.
• 6 Wishandaprayer – first timer for Carlos Martin shows some quick works; could take the field all the way.
• 9 Artemus Paperboy – disappointed as the fav two back and never got into the race last out. Jacobson claims win with great regularity and it would be a surprise if he stayed a maiden too much longer.

Race 3

Has been taken off the turf. My original selections are shown below. MTO 1 Julie Napp is at 6-5 on the ML and probably will go off near those odds. The other MTO 8 Mr Rico Is Valid has some early foot and may actually go off as second choice. This does not look like a good betting race.

• 2 Stage Name – puts the blinkers on and drops back to 6F. Drops from starter allowance last two to $40K NW2L claiming.  Reasonably good chance in a weak field.
• 6 Courageous Karen – hasn’t shown an affinity for being in front at the wire but does have competitive figures; another that only looks good based on the weak field.
• 9 Blistering Strike – Drops from Penn National ALW to this claimer. At 12-1 she generates some interest.

Race 4

This race was tough before they took it off the turf. Two MTOs 10 Shoot the Moon and 11 Quezon are both first time starters  and neither was listed at low odds on the ML. Quezon has a very high wet track rating and may be the value in the race. The other MTO 12 The Lewis Dinner is listed at 2-1 on the ML and may go off lower. She has two races with a place and a show. She’s backed up in the stretch but,  of the starters, dominates in terms of figures. Go Babe still looks playable considering she showed speed on the dirt last out. 

• 4 R Y Squadron – one of the ubiquitous Chad Brown 1st time starters on the turf. Looks typically ready to pop.
• 7 Go Babe – showed a bit of speed when fighting the bit and looks like she bled a half mile in. She gets Lasix today and Castellano.
• 1 Stolen Victory – Part of the Contessa entry along with Wesdrewmax. Nice series of works, especially the last one.

Race 5

• 4 North Ocean – has run some excellent figures and has been relatively consistent. Claimed in each of his last three and dropped to his lowest level today. If he’s healthy, he’ll be hard to beat.
• 2 M J Plus – has been first or second in half his starts. The hot David Jacobson trains.
• 7 Matt and Jesse – is more of an in the money type but is fast enough to get a piece here.

Race 6

Two MTOs in this race, 4 First Bid and 10 Classic Sense. They are likely to be the top two choices at post time. 1A Killer Crossover has primarily been a dirt horse and has a very high wet track rating. 

• 9 Pep the Champ – likely has some physical issues that keep him from starting very often. Looked good breaking his maiden and came back to finish less than a length out in a $50K starter. Back at this level with three solid works since his last. Addition of blinkers two back seems to have made all the difference.
• 5 March Reward – puts the blinkers on today in an attempt to focus his speed. Fast enough to be the winner, but needs to show some heart.
• 2 Smokey Brown – been close in 3 of 4 this year and should run his best at today’s distance.

Race 7

• 7 Blithely – Three race career, a win and two places. Laid off for close to a year and came out at SAR running; only figures to  improve today.
• 1/1A The Lost Tigress and Very Accomplished – Very Accomplished finished 3rd in the Blithely race at SAR but seems a little stuck at NW1X. Lost Tigress second in the mud last out and seems just as well placed as stablemate.
• 8 My Girl Madison – speedster ships from MTH and jumps up a little here. Three solid lifetime starts.
• 4 Verisimilitude – ran into the monstrous effort by Girlaboutown first out on the SAR dirt, came back to win on the turf after a troubled trip. Looks very competitive here

Race 8

• 5 Iced Over – Broke his maiden on the SAR grass and lost chances when he stumbled at the break in his NW1X, but made a nice close to finish 3rd.
• 9 Adams Note – tactical speed, competitive figures and 10-1 on the ML. Not without chances.
• 8 Blue Pigeon – Clement trainee is improving; thought well enough of him to put him in a Grade 2 as a 2 year-old. Needed the SAR races and should run his top race today.
• 1 Gridley Here – has been with quality NY breds this year; cuts back in distance to the mile and seems well suited for that. One of the competitors in a competitive race.

Race 9

• 9 Tiger D – 2-1 ML favorite been knocking at the door and should be let in today.
• 5 Boston Strong – Not quite Wicked Strong but has done well in two starts with state-bred maidens. Took a month off after last but has been working steadily  for his return.
• 4 Talledega – he’s shown a nice closing kick in both of his races and his last workout might give him a little more speed than he’s had. Solid contender.
• 10 Keen’s Culpa – 15-1 longshot finished 5 behind Tiger D in his one turf start and didn’t disgrace himself. Worth using for a minor award at the odds.

It’s another day where with competitive races, some with a bit of guesswork involved.

Race 1

• 4 Shayjolie – broke her maiden at BEL, could have had one last had Divided Attention not ran lights out
• 1 Running Wild – in a five horse race it’s going to be tough to find a price; this horse is as close as you come

Race 2

• 7 May Flowers – Jeremiah Englehart has had success in this sort of race. Nice steady workout pattern including a big one last time
• 1 Sunnysammi – good speed last out, looked like she was a winner and then crashed into a wall. Came back to work well though
• 2 Desert Image – Weaver is one of the better first out, 2 year old trainers and the last workout says “go” for the filly

Race 3

• 5 Remarkable – showed big early zip and a little bit of courage in the mud last out. Could set her own pace this time
• 1 Loving Lorri – troubled trip last out, puts shades on and gets Lasix this time
• 4 Savvy Sassy – One of two Clement trainees here; Irad takes this one which suggests she’s the better; been working at BEL all along

Race 4      Ashley T. Cole

• 1 Effinex is a MTO
• 2  Front goes for the hot Jimmy Jerkens barn. He’s 2 of 6 on the BEL turf, including a win against open OC$62 in May. Last race was his best figure-wise. He’s been consistent and reliable and at 10-1 ML would be the second choice for me here.
• 3 Lubash has been something of a win machine with 10 victories in 36 starts. This 7 year-old horse was last seen finishing second a head in the West Point at SAR. He loves the BEL turf and you have to expect him to run his usual competitive race today. Totally in the mix.
• 4 Kharata has been a bit of a tease lately, but did win the Kingston two back. His figures are as solid as anyone’s in this race. He’s sharp at the moment and is 9 of 11 first or second on the BEL turf. An in the money player.
• 5 Notacatbutallama is neither of those but a horse that has burned a lot of win money. He was third in the West Point that a few of these horses are coming out of. In his last 10 starts he has never finished farther than 6 lengths behind. He’s definitely been more focused with the addition of blinkers in his last two. No surprise at all if he wins but more likely in the money.
• 6 Spa City Fever is a MTO
• 7 King Kressa was well-enough regarded to head over to Hong Kong for the prestigious $2.5 million Hong Kong Mile. He only beat two in that race and laid off until August when he came out to wire the West Point field. He’s coming back in a month and given the stress of that effort might bounce. The pace in the West Point was relatively slow early and the presence of a slew of pace pressers in this race should make it harder for him to loaf up front. He’ll be a deserved favorite, and is the top choice, but could has some vulnerability.

Race 5

• 2 Mop Head – running consistently but having some trouble getting over the top this year; a very tepid top choice
• 9 Tiz Yankee – just faltered in his last when Rosie lost her irons in the stretch; Zito jumps him up and he could hardly be in better shape, but the 2 for 22 with 10 seconds makes me wary of using him a lot on top
• 6 Make it Gold – been another frustrating runner but has the figures and potential to catch a piece
• 8 Loveisheartandsoul – 2 for 5 in a brief career, claimed by Contessa last out, improvement definitely a possibility

Race 6 

• 1/1A Be Bullish, Back Forty – Be Bullish is the stronger of the two but has had a lot of races this year. Back Forty was claimed two back, dropped for a win, and jumped back up today. Shrewd trainer  may win two in a row
• 5 Street Shark – Ian Wilkes lost the horse three back to Contessa and grabbed him again two back. Likes to win on all surfaces and tracks
• 2 Summer Sunset – threw a clunker in last out, laid off since middle of July but two nice comeback workouts; runs well fresh
• 7 Broad Rule – claimed by Abigail Absit last out and given the size of her stable, she’s always looking for wins; an outside chance

Race 7 

• 4 Day Six – showed much greater liking for mile and a sixteenth; has tactical speed and upwardly trending figures
• 7 All the Way – should be winging on the lead and will have to withstand some challenges in the stretch; Bush not so good with second start maidens, but this could be the exception
• 6 King of Bay – ran lights out after bobbling at the break. One more jump up can be the difference today
• 8 Throckmorton – missed the break, blocked and checked twice in the stretch when making a move; scary today

Race 8

• 11 Old Harbor – goes back with state-breds; likes BEL turf and has an effective pressing style; lately has been with better
• 8 Henry’s Gal – has plenty of speed, 4 of 8 wins lifetime; improving 3 year old and should be at her best distance
• 5 One Time Only – consistent but hasn’t really been facing this quality the last three outs
• 3 White Sangria – wasn’t happy at 5.5F at SAR; prefers BEL and slightly longer; 7F should be perfect. Perhaps a tad cheaper than the best in here

Race 9    John Hettinger

• 2 Frosty Bay has been uninspiring against open claimers and in restricted stakes this year. Would really have to make  big improvement to win here.
• 3 Stock Fund has been effective in ALW races, and her last win came on this BEL turf. She’s not been the distance and it looks like she’s a minor player in this one.
• 1 Carameaway – SCR
• 4 Selenite is another that hasn’t been the distance. She won a division of the NY Stallions Series last month at SAR, but that was against 3 year olds only. She also looks destined for a minor award.
• 5 Strike Accord has only won an OC $40K this year. Would have to seriously outrun her odds to get a chunk here.
• 6 Effie Trinket has been with the right crowd but has been struggling to crack the winner’s circle. She’s best on the BEL turf and has won at this distance. She has a best last out pace figure and for that I’ll put her on top.
• 1A Dreaming of Cara is 3 for 37 and her last win came two years ago. She’s 0 for 11 on the BEL turf. Not much to recommend here.
• 7 Get Gorgeous – SCR
• 8 Mah Jong Maddnes is not sweeping the country, but the horse by that name definitely has a shot here. She’s a stakes winner this year and has good speed out of the gate. She hasn’t been the distance, but if Lezcano rates her well, he could milk the mile and an eighth out of her. A contender.
• 9 Princess Mara looks like she could use the cutback in distance. Patrick Quick has not been having a good year but given the speed  Princess Mara has a chance to hit the board at long odds.
• 10 Invading Humor is another that hasn’t negotiated the distance previously. She wired a field on a slow pace last out, but doesn’t figure to get dawdling fractions today. Another with an outside shot.

Race 10

• 6 Chief Kitten – best of the prior starters, Brown/Lezcano has actually been a high percentage combo
• 4 Brother O’Connell – cuts back in distance for his second start after being wide  last time; three snappy workouts since
• 1 Gear Jammer – was wide last out but made a valiant close. Should be closer and if Alvarado finds a way clear could be the one
• 8 Mark My Style – puts the blinkers on and stretches out in distance; looks like a smart move by Contessa

Well, as The Who said, just another tricky day for you.Thursday continued the odd week at BEL with another seconditis horse won (Downgoesfrazier) and someone popped a $20K win bet on Surfing USA, who then promptly ran out of the money. I’ll do a short blog piece on that tomorrow. But for now, let the madness commence for Friday.

Race 1     Betting Value  – C      4-3-6

This really looks like a two horse race on paper – actually a one horse to win and one horse to place race. Money Changer looks set to break his maiden. The Pletcher trainee just missed a head at SAR, has all the speed in the race (and the track has been relatively kind to front runners the last couple of days), and has the best figure to boot. 9-5 would be really optimistic to hope for. Courtier had a nasty trip first out. He was wide and steadied. He is trained by Bill Mott who is well known to have almost no chance with his firsters, but is much better second out. The second place finisher from his SAR race has already come back to win, and while he’ll have a tough time running by Money Changer, it’s not out of the question. Someone has to run third and it might be Rimbaud. He went off almost 60-1 first out, but should catch better action this time. He’s bred to like a dirt mile.

Race 2      Betting Value – C      4-1-7

Lil Honey Badger was claimed in June for $30K at CD by low profile trainer William Heffner, who promptly took the horse to SAR and put her on the turf in two optional claimers NW1X for $75K. She showed good speed and didn’t fade badly in either turf start. She drops to a $50K NW3L today and has as good a shot as any to pick up the win. Bartiromo raced well in an OC NW1X at BEL but clunked at SAR. In fact, she has a win and a second on the BEL turf and should loom the major threat. Al’s Gal has a second over the BEL turf and convincingly won a $40K NW2L last out at SAR. Bruce Levine and Jose Ortiz have been a potent pairing and the step up in claiming price makes sense.

Race 3      Betting Value – C      2-5-1

This really doesn’t look like a great money-making race. Of the starters, Treasure looks very good. She went off at 5-2 in her debut for the strong Jimmy Jerkens stable and only lost by a length and a quarter. Paris Bikini goes for Todd Pletcher who seems to be live every time he puts a 2 year-old on the track.  She has a nice series of works and some nice works on the SAR training track. Pletcher can afford to wait until horses are ready, and while she may not have made the SAR meet, she still has a chance at some of the richer fall races. Onus is coming out of the same race as Treasure. She broke slowly, but steadily made up ground until hanging in the stretch. She’s certainly eligible to improve.

Race 4      Betting Value – C      2-1-8

This is a competitive race for the wrong reason – nobody looks that good. There are two 1 for 20somethings and two who are just about to enter that category in eight entrants. Let’s face it. You don’t drop a horse from ALW $75K to a $16K claimer just because you’re desperate for a win. The drop on Sheriffa seems very negative, but if the horse holds together around the track she is the fastest animal in the race. Andromeda’s Risk is dropping from $25K and has been off since April. I sometimes think the trainer is just prepping the horse for the winter meet at AQU, but in this field and at 12-1 I’ll give the horse a long look. Golden Cheetah has bounced between low level claimers and NW1X and is 1 for 19. I don’t think she is a likely winner, but she could make up part of the tri.

Race 5      Betting Value – B      2-4-1-8

This is another low level, state-bred optional claimer for NW2X. The Lady Says Yes won a state-bred ALW NW1X in June in her first start of the year at BEL, came back at SAR and ran poorly. It’s likely the horse had some physical issues earlier this year, and perhaps they cropped up again at SAR. Trainer Chad Brown has given the horse a nice series of workouts to prep her for the race and assuming she doesn’t have any residual issues she is the best horse in the race. Carribean Beat has been knocking around at this level for a while and has managed to reel off three in the money finishes in a row. She ran strongly in her last against two solid state-breds in Distorted Beauty and One Time Only, and off that race has a big shot to win in here. Run to Mama is coming out of the same race as Caribbean Beat and finished 4th in that race. She has a pressing style and in this race doesn’t have a lot of speed to run past. She has a win over the BEL turf and a nice :36.2 blowout four days ago. She looks ready to run a good one here. Lucky Nancy E. tried a state-bred stakes on the dirt last out and did not impress. Before that she had won three of six and her last two in a row, including a wire to wire victory at a mile at Belmont. She seems to have blossomed under the care of James Ryerson and has the best early speed in the race. If she’s allowed to go out on her own pace, she’ll be tough to catch.

Race 6      Betting Value – C      7-9-1-3

How can you not like a horse called Funky Monkey Fever? She broke her maiden in an off the turf event and has been running into bad weather and races over her head. She should be a bit of a price and if Alvarado positions her well could run by the field in the stretch. Bossanova Lady ran a nice race at big odds in a SAR sprint last out. She’s never run a mile but is bred well enough for the distance. Given her sprint background I’d expect her to be very close to the front. She has my second favorite jockey (anyone else is first) up, but I like the fact that she’ll be ignored. Costenia just broke her maiden in wire to wire fashion and Todd Pletcher thought well enough of her to pop her back in this $50K starter event. I like the wakeup last out and if she takes to the BEL turf could get a piece. Lonely Teardrops broke her maiden over this BEL turf in wire to wire fashion two back and came right back to just miss at SAR. She needed 17 starts to win the first time and maybe she’s figured it out.

Race 7     Betting Value – B      2-9-3

Sweetpollypurebrd ran a strong second first out to easy winner Hard to Stay Notgo. This field doesn’t look like it has nearly the talent of her last and a wire to wire victory is well within her ability. First Service has a steady work pattern for her debut, including a nice five furlong breeze a week ago. Johnny V takes the mount and he rides at 35% for Michael Dilger.  Janny Love goes for Linda Rice who has a good record with 2 year-olds but has not done will first out. I like the workout pattern and Cornelio Velasquez should help the horse’s chances.

Race 8      Betting Value – B      6-1/1A-10-9

Zinzay switched stables after a fading 6th in her last out. Graham Motion takes over the schooling duties. Zinzay broke her maiden at first asking and since then has been in two graded stakes and a restricted stakes. She has acquitted herself well in those races but has clearly been a little over her head. She tries to get back on the winning track today and seems to have found the field to do it. Dancing House is making her 2014 debut after running three graded stakes in 2013. She showed a lot of promise at a two year-old and Kieran McLaughlin has hit at a 26% rate with long layoff horses. She may be prepping here, but if McLaughlin has her wound up she could be best. Her stablemate Ballylee has been stuck at this level a while, but has shown some talent. Hobe Wins goes for Graham Motion after first trying the turf at SAR. She had a bit of trouble in that race but still finished with interest. She adds blinkers today and gets a good jockey switch to Jose Ortiz. American Girl is the interesting horse for me. She broke her maiden in Ireland last February, came to MTH and ran evenly around the track. She took a month an a half off and shows one official workout four days ago. The Alan Goldberg/Angel Arroyo combination is not inspiring, but they have won one out of two races together.

Race 9      Betting Value – B      10-7-9-2

The 9th is another $40 MCL for state-breds on the turf. Barrier to Entry is a six start maiden that is dropping from straight maidens. The drop is warranted since she hasn’t been a threat in her previous races. She has decent speed and her best start came over the BEL turf. She looks better suited to the 6 furlong distance than 5 1/2. Quit Smokin has been going off at boxcar odds but catches a much weaker field. She’s got some good tactical speed and perhaps the drop to the claiming ranks will be what she needs to take her over the top. Read It and Weep drops back a quarter mile in distance, a move trainer Terri Pompay has had great success with. She had a lot of trouble in her last and should be contending at the wire. No Trespassers ran her best race last out. She’s certainly no better than a $40K claimer, but if she continues improving she could get a piece.

The midweek races at Belmont have not been what you’d call high quality. Bottom level claimers, NY State bred messes, and NW1X passing as the feature race. Strange things can happen on these type of days, like the 1 for 44 Eurokay by Me winning a race. Sort of blows your handicapping expertise right out of the water.

Race 1      Betting Value – B      2-7-5

Once again the day starts with a bottom level claimer. The fact is that most of the horses at this level have physical issues, are nearing the end of their careers, or are often over-raced. Noble Doss has managed a win and a second from only four races in 2014. Lifetime he has a win, place and show at BEL. On his good days he will press the pace and look to draw off in the stretch. He actually won at this class level as recently as June, and was definitely in over his head in a $25K starter allowance a month and a half ago at SAR. He likes the BEL surface and if he runs back to either of his two recent BEL efforts he should be the winner. Summit County was claimed back out of his last at Finger Lakes by Chris Englehart who is quietly having an excellent year. Summit County has run more races on the turf (16) than on the dirt (7) but has the same number of wins on each surface. Clearly Englehart likes the potential of the horse because he grabbed him back after only one race. His last win was at the $10K level at FL, and realistically this is no jump up in class at all. This looks like a good spot for his second win of the year. Magnificent Moon was claimed last out by Michelle Nevin, another trainer quietly having major success. The horse has two wins in four starts at BEL, and the switch to the Nevin barn can only help.

Race 2      Betting Value – B      8-6-2

The second is a $40K maiden claimer at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Beauty Surprise is listed at 2-1 on the ML and looks fairly strong against this group. Her last was at a mile on the inner turf at SAR. She was breaking from the 10 post, got jostled out of the gate, went wide into the first turn, but finished in a herd of horses, 5th by only three lengths. She’s had some useful workouts since then and Clement should have her ready to go. Reckless Move makes her second start at the $40K level for high percentage trainer Anthony Dutrow. In her last she prompted a fast pace to the top of the stretch before dropping back. Little Miss Brown set all the fractions before getting caught in the stretch and returned to win her next. If she can relax up front she could last all the way. More Everything is also making her second start at the $40K level and is coming out of the same race as Reckless Move. More Everything stayed a bit closer than she had in her previous races and ran fairly evenly around the track. She could improve enough to be a factor at the wire. Shaikha will draw some action on the basis of her 6 place finishes from 16 starts. She is a low probability to win, but could be part of the tri/super.

Race 3      Betting Value – B      2-7-6

The third is a NW3L for $50K claimers. Shore Runner solidly beat a field of $40K NW2L claimers in his last out and was claimed by Ian Wilkes who has been 29% first off the claim. Shore Runner has two place finishes in two races at BEL and despite the career best figure in her last, has had plenty of time to recover so I’m not overly concerned with a bounce. Joking has lately been in with starter allowance types, probably close in class level to this group. In his last at SAR he ran evenly around the track, but given he had been off since April he probably needed the race. He’s primarily been a dirt sprinter, but in his four turf races he does have a second and third. Asset Inflation soundly beat a state-bred NW1X field at BEL in July at today’s surface and distance. Maker and Castellano have been a high percentage combo, the horse has plenty of natural speed and has been working steadily for his return after a brief rest. Very dangerous if Maker has him wound up.

Race 4      Betting Value – B      5-10-4-11

This is the mess of a race with which they love to start the Pick-6 sequence. Invasion Point gets the nod here. Michael Maker has had great success with the route to sprint move on the turf. In his last Invasion Point had to gun to the front from the 11 post, was hung wide around the track, and was still there to the top of the stretch. Based on his three lifetime starts he seems better suited to sprinting and fits well against this group. Spa City Treasure nearly won a turf sprint at SAR last out, losing a neck to the heavy favorite Eternal Bull. He’s a lightly raced 5 year-old that should be pressing the pace and finishing well. Bad to the Roan has been off since May, but trainer George Weaver is fair with this sort of layoff horse, and has been working him steadily for his return. It’s likely after the race someone will be asking, Whyalwaysme. The horse has been doing all his turf running in route races, and was well enough thought of to achieve favoritism in his last race, his second at the $40K claiming level. He showed a little bit of speed in that race and may appreciate the cut back in distance.

Race 5      Betting Value – C      1-2-6

There doesn’t seem to be much insight here. The favorites look best in this field, and frankly they all seem a bit suspect. Frame broke his maiden at the $40K level last out. He seems to have good speed and should find nice position from the 1 post. It’s pretty clear whatever potential he had when his connections debuted him at SAR last year has diminished and he is probably better suited for this cheap claimer. Herd Mentality has 11 starts, his last seven in diminishing claiming levels. It looks like Steve Assmussen is trying to move the horse out of his stable. Herd Mentality does have a good turn of foot early and fits about as well as any at this level.  Perfect Disco is dropping to the $16K level after finishing second in a $25K NW2L last out in May at BEL. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious reason why he should have laid off for four months, then dropped in claiming price. His workout pattern is also a little spotty. But, at least he hasn’t gotten to the confirmed NW2L place a number of the others in here have.

Race 6      Betting Value – C      1-9-6-4

This is a straight maiden for 2 year-olds at a mile. Cover Up breaks from the rail, and if she breaks more efficiently than her last race she should have a say. She may not have a lot of natural speed, and if that is the case she may wind up running the same race as last out, buried on the rail and having to swing wide for the drive. I’m leaning toward the horse breaking better and establishing a more effective pressing position. McGaughey does well with second time starters, and has had great success combining with Joel Rosario. Kinsley breaks from the far outside post, and given the lack of speed she showed in her first outing at SAR she may wind up staying wide the entire trip. She was well thought of in that race, going off as the 5-2 second choice. She looked good enough that her owners paid $300K for her as a yearling and she is regally bred, so the mile distance should not present an issue. Sweet Maya has already had two starts, her last at 1 1/16 miles on the turf when she had a very difficult trip. She was bumped out of the gate, steadied when cut off going into the first turn, stuck on the rail for most of the race and was left with little for the stretch. She’ll be much more competitive on the dirt and at BEL where she already has a second place finish to the very talented Cavorting, the horse that won the Grade 2 Adirondack. Midnight Citra had little on the turf at SAR and returns to the BEL dirt. She seems better bred for the dirt and Mott does much better once his horses have had a race or two.

Race 7      Betting Value – B      5-8-3-1

This turf sprint features the usual mix of budding professional NW2 horses and horses looking to find a win.  Lunar Tales was claimed last out by low profile trainer Cam Gambolati for today’s price. He does have a win over the BEL turf and adds blinkers today to help focus his speed. Vecino is really not dropping in class today, going from a state-bred NW1X to this $40K claimer. He was bet off the board in his last, could not keep up with a very fast pace, and really showed little in the stretch. He should be part of the early pace duel and if he runs back to his maiden winning race he will be a factor. Bajan Summer broke his maiden at BEL for $40K and ran well in a $25K claimer at SAR where he was claimed by Gary Sciacca. Sciacca has not dazzled with first off the claim, but he looks competitive in this race. Golden Story goes first off the claim for Jacobson who has been lights out with these sorts of horses. He has plenty of speed and should be in the leading group down the backstretch. He’s been a little heartless in the stretch, but hopefully Jacobson cures that.

Race 8     Betting Value – B     5-8-4-6

I really wanted to like Mack Miller in this race. He trained the first horse I ever bet, a 12-1 shot named Royal Spouse. Fortunately he scratched so I didn’t have to make a decision. Surfing U S A face planted out of the gate in his last and pretty much lost all chance. He was a nice third in the Tampa Derby and ran well at BEL in his debut race. He looks really solid in this race. Encryption was soundly beaten in the Haskell – clearly he was over his head – but prior to that he ran competitively in the Long Branch and the Pegasus. He’s well suited for the distance and has plenty of tactical speed to get position on the outside. Cool Samurai ships in for John Sherriffs off a disappointing finish in the RB Lewis. His maiden race was a flat mile at BEL and he far outran his odds to finish second to none other than Wicked Strong. He’s been with better and should be competitive today. Mosler was a bundle of nerves in his last start. blowing his energy running to the front  from the rail post and fading badly. He clearly needed the race since he had been off for close to a year. Trainer Bill Mott is 32% with runners off long layoffs. He takes the blinkers off today and and should improve in his second start of 2014.

Race 9      Betting Value – B      11-2-5-4

None of the MTO’s scratched early which means they are concerned about rain. Barring that, Bella Kateri gets the nod. The switch from Michelle Nevin’s barn to Lisa Lewis is more negative than positive, but she has shown some talent in her three starts and ran a good race at BEL in May. She went off as the favorite last out and disappointed. Let’s hope she’s not just a money-sucker and she runs to all her ability today. Manner of Speaking makes her third start and 2014 debut for Linda Rice, who has been struggling so far at BEL. As a 2 year-old she ran faster than other horses in the race have run as 3 year-olds, and for me this is a huge angle. Rice is fair off the layoff, and if the horse is wound up today she will be a big factor. Roman Reign goes second out for low-profile, high percentage trainer Peter Pugh. Pugh has only five starts with 2nd time maidens, but has won two of them and is 5 for 19 overall this year. In her last race she was tardy out of the gate and still showed a little interest. With a good break she could definitely be there at the wire. Gu Gu Beans is turning into a money-sucker. She has two seconds and two thirds in her last four races, and while she is definitely competitive with respect to figures, she is a bit chancy in the win slot.

After going through the card, it’s not too good even for a Wednesday. Five races have seven or fewer betting interests, and that’s before scratches. But, I wasn’t too jazzed up about Sunday but it was a pretty good day overall.

Race 1      Betting Value – C       1-5-2

The David Jacobson entry of Italian Rules and Glickman was listed at 2-5 on the morning line. As expected, Glickman scratched. Italian Rules has been claimed five times in his last seven races.  At the recent SAR meet he won a $40K claimer and just missed a neck in a $25K starter allowance. So why is he dropping to $12,500, the lowest price he’s seen in his life? It certainly doesn’t look like a positive drop. The horse is a presser who probably sits just off his stablemate and will be hard to pass in the stretch. Buckeye Heart was claimed by Steve Klesaris after winning for $12,500 at BEL in July. He has the figures and the stretch courage to be a threat in this field. If the B Shanny of 2013 was running, he’d be a solid favorite. Unfortunately, the B Shanny of 2014 is not quite the same horse and the uninspiring combination of trainer Assaf Ronen and 7 pound bug Andre Worrie is no help. He’s another one freefalling through the claiming ranks but still should have enough left in the tank to be competitive.

Race 2      Betting Value – B      5-6-7-3

This 1 1/16 mile maiden claiming race does have some interesting possibilities. Inventor’s Gate at 12-1 ML generates the most curiosity for me. He actually ran a pretty decent race at BEL in May and then threw in the towel on a sloppy SAR track in a race that was originally scheduled on the turf. In that BEL race the early pace was slow enough that Peaceful Talk easily wired the field, but when the pace picked up Inventor’s Gate quickened nicely, running the last 5/16 in a pretty respectable 29 seconds. He also appears to be the best speed in a race devoid of true front runners. I think he’s better than those ML odds and maybe the best value in the race. Are We Not Men was snagged for $40K by John Toscano last out and he jumps him up a notch today. He’s a plodder cutting back in distance and he actually ran his best race at 1  1/16 miles. I’m not a big fan of plodders, and the pace in this field is not likely to help him, but there aren’t a lot of other horses that are more inspiring. Mambo At the Gym is cutting back from straight maidens to this $62,500 claimer. He ran a very nice race in his last at SAR, actually taking the lead entering the stretch and running very gamely while in tight at the rail. He’s got the best figures and if he is smart enough to track he’ll be in a nice spot turning for home. He’ll be the favorite and no surprise if he is there at the wire. Dividend caught all the worst of it in his last start and probably should have won the race. He’s another that is going to have to come from off the pace.

Race 3      Betting Value – C      5-2-4

Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is a horse that has done well at the $62,500 level. She’s 4 for 4 in the money at BEL, and her last race is probably the poorest on her sheet. In that race she was on the far outside, broke well, but never got a great spot. She swung widest of all around the turn, but clearly wasn’t going to close enough to win the race. If she reverts to her BEL form she is formidable. Evening Show is coming out of the same SAR race. She is solid at the level but does seem to hang a bit in the stretch. Given the odds difference, I’ll stick with Nuffsaid Nuffsaid. La Madrina is listed as the even money favorite for good reason. She’s 2 for 3 lifetime, including a NW1X last out at SAR. She’s fast enough and could have talent far beyond what she’s already shown. You certainly can’t leave her out of your pick 3/4/5 wagers.

Race 4      Betting Value – C      7-4-2

This is a typical mid-level, NW2L claimer. Eurokay by Me, Kate is a Ten, and My Four Rewards all have too many starts with only one win. I’m going to place Casey Roo on top. She was claimed two back by Richard Schosberg and he has been trying to move her from a sprinter to a router. She ran fairly well in a $50K starter allowance at SAR on a good turf course and came back to run out of steam in a fairly fast paced mile. She’s had a couple of good works since that one and while she might not inspire a tingly feeling, in this field she has a good chance. Barbara’s Smile is making her sixth career start and second after a claim by Gary Sciacca. She ran an even race in her first start at 1 1/16 miles and should improve today despite the slight rise in claiming price. Eddy’s Time is making her 13th career start, so she is approaching that professional NW2L point. She showed nice speed in her last at SAR, tiring in the stretch but running legitimate fractions. She likes the BEL turf and should be a major pace factor.

Race 5      Betting Value – B      1-4-3

With the other half of the entry scratched it is up to Bobby Jo to carry the banner for David Jacobson. She is riding a two race win streak and looks to have a great style for the distance. What the Front was claimed last out by Gary Contessa after dropping in claiming price to $40K. That was not a stirring performance – she really hasn’t had an eye-popping race in a while – but she is dropping to a level at which she can win and I think the 6 1/2F distance will suit her well. Her pace figure is the best in the field. She’s 12-1 on the ML and that is enough to encourage taking a chance. In Kelly’s Defense is making her BEL debut after spending her career at tracks like CD, IND, and FG. She last raced in July and switched barns to Chris Englehart, a trainer who has turned a lot of heads since his successful SAR meeting. Englehart had the horse at SAR but apparently didn’t find a spot to start her. The bad news is that there has been an 18 day gap since her last workout and that may leave the horse a little short in this race. When she is in condition she will press close to the front and finish well. Her ML is 5-1 and she should represent value at that price. Still…

Race 6      Betting Value – C      4-1-5

Boldlee had one start at SAR in which he broke slowly, pretty much lost contact with the pack, and closed impressively on the far outside to get third. A better break today and he has the talent to run by them all. Tiz a Chance is trained by Graham Motion and in his first day back from a suspension Irad Ortiz gets the mount. He has a nice series of workouts for this race. I’m not enamored with the one post, but Motion does very well with turf juveniles. One Eyed Ray is also coming out of the same SAR turf sprint as Boldlee. He broke well, set rapid fractions, and faded badly. With a more relaxed trip he could set the pace all the way around the track.

Race 7     Betting Value – B      7-5-1A

Big Town comes off a a claim by Rudy Rodriguez on a sloppy SAR track. Prior to that he was knocking around CD and OP  with moderate success. You have to throw out the last race in the slop – although he has a good wet track record, he never really got into that race. He’s a solid front runner and certainly fits at this class level. He hasn’t run a one turn race in quite a while, but he has enough speed to control the race. Groomedforvictory was another last out claim, this time for Micelle Nevin who was sizzling at SAR. He has the fastest  pace figure and a nice pressing style. Nevin gave the horse a nice series of workouts, the last a bullet five-furlong zip on the BEL main. Nevin is 28% with a positive ROI first off the claim, and the Nevin-Johnny V combination is hitting at 23%. It is interesting to note Nevin was the trainer of the horse earlier this year for a victory at a mile on the AQU inner dirt. Wealth to Me will take up the charge with the scratch of stablemate Joan’s Choice. He is another of the myriad claims by David Jacobson. He’s been claimed five times in his last seven races and rarely runs a clunker. He looks well placed, and definitely has the figures to be successful.

Race 8      Betting Value – B      2-3-4

Groupthink goes for trainer Chad Brown. He’s a perfect 6 for 6 in the money lifetime, and has been knocking at the door in his last two. In his last he went very wide around the turn but finished with good energy. He has a nice pressing style and is well suited for the seven furlong distance. Here Comes Tommy is one of those chronic seconditis horse, with 11 seconds and thirds and only one win in 29 starts. He has the figures and the talent to win, but his heart is suspect. Much higher probability of in the money than win finish. Broadway Bay is only making his third start . He broke his maiden in the mud at SAR at today’s distance in a somewhat slow time. Given the muddy track, the race may not be representative of the horse’s true ability and given the small number of starts improvement is reasonably likely.

Race 9      Betting Value – C      3-8-9

This group two year old state-bred maiden fillies is trying 5 1/2 furlongs, all but two for the first time. This race is wide open so watch the board. Take Issue is a Steve Assmussen trained filly with a long series of works coming up to this race. The breeding of the horse is ordinary  but Assmussen and Jose Ortiz are hitting at a 28% clip.  My Sweet Ellierose has one start at Timonium where she was bounced around at the start but still retained enough interest to finish third. Giant Hearted Lee is the other Rudy Rodriguez starter. Unlike her stablemate, she has no breaks in a long training schedule and should be ready for her debut. The scratch of Forestry’s Majesty is in Giant Hearted Lee‘s favor.

Another so-so weekend card from Belmont. Yesterday the best opportunities came early. Today I don’t have a real sense that there are a lot of big opportunities waiting, but here goes.

Race 1      Betting Value – B      5-4-2-6

Wild Kay is listed at 5-2 on the morning line and I’d be surprised if she didn’t go off at less than 2-1. She looks to be the controlling speed and that should count for a lot in this field. She won at this class two months ago, was claimed, and Patrick Quick unsuccessfully tried her in a couple of higher claiming races. He drops her to her best level today and she is 2 for 2 on the BEL main. Are there concerns? Sure. Quick is a 7% trainer from less than 100 starts in 2014. Andre Worrie is still riding with a 7 pound bug and has a 7% win rate. However, he does seem to be able to get a horse out of the gate, and in this race that could be all the difference. Inaflash is a hard-trying horse that suffers from a mild case of seconditis. She’s certainly no better than this class level and is another with low level connections. Still, she has good enough figures to be somewhere close by at the finish. Golden Rule is the X-Factor here. She has been racing primarily at Parx at slightly higher levels, and fits well in this spot. Allie Sweet has been running longer, but when she has been in condition she has figures very competitive with this field. Unfortunately in her last two she faded badly after contesting the lead for 3/4 of a mile. On a positive note, her last win came at Belmont in an off the turfer. She was claimed last out for $25K by low-profile, high win percentage trainer Diane Balsamo. If she wins this race at best it is a break-even proposition. Somewhat ambiguous, but scarier not to use than to use.

Race 2      Betting Value – C      4-8-1

Not a sterling field of $40K maidens going 6F on the turf. The scratch of Megsmelia changes the race quite a bit. Lochan changed barns over the summer after two unimpressive races at CD. She’s only had one turf start in four lifetime attempts, but it was enough to give me confidence she’ll be fine on the turf today. She drops from straight maidens, a powerful angle, and gets the services of Javier Castellano. Stay In Front has been on the sidelines for a year and changes hands from Chad Brown to Rudy Rodriguez. She ran a bang-up race in a straight maiden on the Saratoga turf at first asking, so she runs well fresh. If Rudy Rodriguez has her wound up she will be dangerous. Acrostic showed good speed in a turf race at BEL a year ago but has tailed off since. Still, with the lack of real speed in the race, I have to give her a slight chance.

Race 3      Betting Value – B      3-5-4

The first running of the Sky Beauty brings together a short field of five Montana Native has been a consistent sort and has been racing in Graded stakes company at Monmouth and Delaware. She is a pace pressing sort and in this field will probably go to the front and is a good bet to stay there. She’s been game in most of her races. Clement and Rosario have been a good combination. John Shirreffs brings Katie’s Garden to BEL off a win in an OC62 at Saratoga. She’s had plenty of time to recover from that effort and should be the one coming at Montana Native in the stretch. Toasting is at a bit of a disadvantage given her closing style here. If Castellano has her close enough in the stretch she could be dangerous. She has two wins from six starts at BEL.

Race 4      Betting Value – C      4-3-2

After 7 of 8 first or second in 2013, including a close second to superhorse Wise Dan in the BC Mile, Za Approval is still looking for his first victory of 2014. On paper he is the classiest horse in the field but has been burning money this year. It’s not a particularly strong field, and 8-5 on this horse wouldn’t make him much of a value proposition. Right beside him in the starting gate will be Pass the Dice. This lightly raced 6 year-old seems to have found some vigor in 2014 with a third in a Graded stakes and a second in a restricted stakes in his last. While he hasn’t been on the grass in a while, he does have two wins from three turf starts. His figures have been consistently strong this year and he is in a good spot to get his first win of 2014. Fredricksburg has shown good speed in his last two starts at 1 1/16 miles, including a very game second in the Oceanport at MTH. His front running style merits respect and his figures make him competitive.

Race 5      Betting Value – C      3-5-2-7

Clark Kent ran a super race (couldn’t resist) first out at FG, and top horseman Larry Jones brings him back after a five month layoff. In that FG race he was a favorite who ran into a buzzsaw in Embellishing  Bob, but today he may not have such stiff competition. He should break on top and take command of the race in the stretch. Smoke Police outran his odds when finishing 3/4 lengths behind Gentrify at SAR. That race should have done him a world of good, and the fact that Chad Brown bumps him up to straight maidens seems positive. Joel Rosario stays for the race. Jazz Player was a $450K yearling purchase and is making his debut for Wounded Warrior Stables and Gary Contessa. He has a nice series of works coming into this, including a three furlong blowout just three days ago. Contessa is not strong first time out, so we’ll see how wound up this horse is. Lord Cashel goes first time for Jimmy Jerkens who has been doing very well lately.

Race 6      Betting Value – C      7-1-9-2

Another 2 year-old maiden race and another contest between Pletcher, Brown and Rudy Rodriguez. Eskenformoney has had two starts already. She looked much better in her last at 1 1/16 miles and if she continues improving she looks like the winner. Doukas just missed a month ago at Saratoga and that experience should make her a real threat today. Breach of Duty is one of the endless string of Chad Brown first timers on the turf and she has had a very nice workout pattern for this race. Miss Chatelaine is a medium price horse that gets a look based on the success Clement has had with turf 2 year-olds.

Race 7      Betting Value – B      2-4-9

Leroy Jr. is a game speed horse who ran into the streaking Dowses Beach last out. He’s listed at even money in the program and I suspect you’d be lucky to get that. Obviously this is a horse with physical issues – he’s a 5 year-old with only five starts – but in his second off a year layoff he looks the strongest on paper. Latigo Trail had been knocking on the door since June, and finally broke his maiden last out at Saratoga. Brown and Luzzi have been a profitable combination in turf sprints. Should track Leroy Jr. and take a run at him in the stretch. Sunlover is a 1 for 14 horse that has been off since last December. He doesn’t look like a winner, but could catch a piece.

Race 8      Betting Value – B      3-9-1-4

This gets old, but Chad Brown starts Fila Primera in the other 2 year-old maiden filly race at a mile on the turf. This event looks a little more ambiguous than the 6th race, but it seems everything Brown puts on the track has to get a second look. Margaret Reay ran to her odds in her debut race at SAR. I watched the race replay and she clearly wasn’t ready for the start. The assistant starter was working hard to straighten her head, but she was having none of it. She showed interest for a while and then just backed up. It’s a bit of an angle but I’m willing to pay to find out if she has learned how to relax in the gate and run her race. At 10-1 ML she should pay a rewarding price. Birkenhead looked like she was in for experience in her maiden at SAR. Tom Durkin noted in his call she was hard to handle, but David Donk is a good enough trainer to get the horse straightened out. Given her breeding she should prefer the mile distance to the sprint. Class Will Tell is the other first timer who looks well-intentioned.

Race 9      Betting Value – B      5-6-1-4

Dyker Beach is coming off an impressive win at Saratoga a month ago. He had been having a lot of trouble finding the winner’s circle, and perhaps the feeling of finishing in front will stick with him for another race. His main competition should come from Waco, a 3 year-old with plenty of early foot and a hidden good race over the BEL surface. Crafty Dreamer is one of those horses that occasionally moves over from optional claimers to take a shot in a NW1X. He’s 10 of 13 in the money and should like the 7 furlong distance. Coolusive takes the blinkers off and gets a good jockey switch to Johnny V.

Race 10      Betting Value – C      11-2-3-10

This mess of a state-bred maiden race at a mile on the turf features 10 first time starters, and yes, one of them is trained by Chad Brown. Detail breaks from the far outside, a definite disadvantage, but if she gets out and runs to her breeding, she’s the main threat. Courageisamajority goes for Graham Motion and has been working well for her debut . Call me crazy, but Loon River looks like the most solid of the two horses with a start over the track. She should improve with the stretch out. Bad Girl Phase is the other 2nd time starter. In her debut she was bumped hard at the break and really lost all chance.

I’m back and raring to go. The Saturday card at Belmont is not a great weekend card. There are a few short fields, and a few really poor fields. I’m doing a 10 race analysis and giving each race an A, B or C in terms of betting potential. “A” races are those where I think the selections are solid and the betting opportunities represent value. “C” races are those where either there is a lot of ambiguity or the betting value is low. “B” is somewhere between.

Race 1      Betting Value – C

I’m not seeing a lot of ambiguity in this race, but I’m not seeing great value either. The first two choices look like the highest probability winners. My Place was claimed by David Jacobson at Saratoga and he ran her back in a $35K NW3 race at 7F. The drop in claiming price is concerning, but the switch from Worrie to Castellano should improve the horse. Island Candy won a $50K starter allowance last out and is another one with a head scratching drop in price. If she runs back to any of her last three she should be dueling to the wire. Of the other starters, perhaps South Sound can be given a second look. She has a little bit a speed and may push Island Candy.

2-4-7

Race 2      Betting Value – C

Artemus Paperboy was claimed by David Jacobson last out. That race was a bit of a clunker, but he does get some time off and a strong series of works to get ready for this race. Americas Guest opened his career in the slop at SAR, showed speed and got swallowed by the field in the stretch. Manny Franco subs for the suspended Irad Ortiz. Perhaps a faster track will be the tonic for the horse. Hi Speed Chase is coming off a nine month layoff and trainer Gary Sciacca is not well known as a layoff trainer. He showed some speed as a juvenile and was beaten by some decent runners, including Commanding Curve. I’m leaning toward giving him a race. Dickens is another layoff horse dropping from straight maidens to claimers. He has a shot at a minor award. Boss Daddy was claimed off his maiden run by Adele Adsit. She has been training well with a limited stable and wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

3-6-7

Race 3      Betting Value – C