After going through the card, it’s not too good even for a Wednesday. Five races have seven or fewer betting interests, and that’s before scratches. But, I wasn’t too jazzed up about Sunday but it was a pretty good day overall.

Race 1      Betting Value – C       1-5-2

The David Jacobson entry of Italian Rules and Glickman was listed at 2-5 on the morning line. As expected, Glickman scratched. Italian Rules has been claimed five times in his last seven races.  At the recent SAR meet he won a $40K claimer and just missed a neck in a $25K starter allowance. So why is he dropping to $12,500, the lowest price he’s seen in his life? It certainly doesn’t look like a positive drop. The horse is a presser who probably sits just off his stablemate and will be hard to pass in the stretch. Buckeye Heart was claimed by Steve Klesaris after winning for $12,500 at BEL in July. He has the figures and the stretch courage to be a threat in this field. If the B Shanny of 2013 was running, he’d be a solid favorite. Unfortunately, the B Shanny of 2014 is not quite the same horse and the uninspiring combination of trainer Assaf Ronen and 7 pound bug Andre Worrie is no help. He’s another one freefalling through the claiming ranks but still should have enough left in the tank to be competitive.

Race 2      Betting Value – B      5-6-7-3

This 1 1/16 mile maiden claiming race does have some interesting possibilities. Inventor’s Gate at 12-1 ML generates the most curiosity for me. He actually ran a pretty decent race at BEL in May and then threw in the towel on a sloppy SAR track in a race that was originally scheduled on the turf. In that BEL race the early pace was slow enough that Peaceful Talk easily wired the field, but when the pace picked up Inventor’s Gate quickened nicely, running the last 5/16 in a pretty respectable 29 seconds. He also appears to be the best speed in a race devoid of true front runners. I think he’s better than those ML odds and maybe the best value in the race. Are We Not Men was snagged for $40K by John Toscano last out and he jumps him up a notch today. He’s a plodder cutting back in distance and he actually ran his best race at 1  1/16 miles. I’m not a big fan of plodders, and the pace in this field is not likely to help him, but there aren’t a lot of other horses that are more inspiring. Mambo At the Gym is cutting back from straight maidens to this $62,500 claimer. He ran a very nice race in his last at SAR, actually taking the lead entering the stretch and running very gamely while in tight at the rail. He’s got the best figures and if he is smart enough to track he’ll be in a nice spot turning for home. He’ll be the favorite and no surprise if he is there at the wire. Dividend caught all the worst of it in his last start and probably should have won the race. He’s another that is going to have to come from off the pace.

Race 3      Betting Value – C      5-2-4

Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is a horse that has done well at the $62,500 level. She’s 4 for 4 in the money at BEL, and her last race is probably the poorest on her sheet. In that race she was on the far outside, broke well, but never got a great spot. She swung widest of all around the turn, but clearly wasn’t going to close enough to win the race. If she reverts to her BEL form she is formidable. Evening Show is coming out of the same SAR race. She is solid at the level but does seem to hang a bit in the stretch. Given the odds difference, I’ll stick with Nuffsaid Nuffsaid. La Madrina is listed as the even money favorite for good reason. She’s 2 for 3 lifetime, including a NW1X last out at SAR. She’s fast enough and could have talent far beyond what she’s already shown. You certainly can’t leave her out of your pick 3/4/5 wagers.

Race 4      Betting Value – C      7-4-2

This is a typical mid-level, NW2L claimer. Eurokay by Me, Kate is a Ten, and My Four Rewards all have too many starts with only one win. I’m going to place Casey Roo on top. She was claimed two back by Richard Schosberg and he has been trying to move her from a sprinter to a router. She ran fairly well in a $50K starter allowance at SAR on a good turf course and came back to run out of steam in a fairly fast paced mile. She’s had a couple of good works since that one and while she might not inspire a tingly feeling, in this field she has a good chance. Barbara’s Smile is making her sixth career start and second after a claim by Gary Sciacca. She ran an even race in her first start at 1 1/16 miles and should improve today despite the slight rise in claiming price. Eddy’s Time is making her 13th career start, so she is approaching that professional NW2L point. She showed nice speed in her last at SAR, tiring in the stretch but running legitimate fractions. She likes the BEL turf and should be a major pace factor.

Race 5      Betting Value – B      1-4-3

With the other half of the entry scratched it is up to Bobby Jo to carry the banner for David Jacobson. She is riding a two race win streak and looks to have a great style for the distance. What the Front was claimed last out by Gary Contessa after dropping in claiming price to $40K. That was not a stirring performance – she really hasn’t had an eye-popping race in a while – but she is dropping to a level at which she can win and I think the 6 1/2F distance will suit her well. Her pace figure is the best in the field. She’s 12-1 on the ML and that is enough to encourage taking a chance. In Kelly’s Defense is making her BEL debut after spending her career at tracks like CD, IND, and FG. She last raced in July and switched barns to Chris Englehart, a trainer who has turned a lot of heads since his successful SAR meeting. Englehart had the horse at SAR but apparently didn’t find a spot to start her. The bad news is that there has been an 18 day gap since her last workout and that may leave the horse a little short in this race. When she is in condition she will press close to the front and finish well. Her ML is 5-1 and she should represent value at that price. Still…

Race 6      Betting Value – C      4-1-5

Boldlee had one start at SAR in which he broke slowly, pretty much lost contact with the pack, and closed impressively on the far outside to get third. A better break today and he has the talent to run by them all. Tiz a Chance is trained by Graham Motion and in his first day back from a suspension Irad Ortiz gets the mount. He has a nice series of workouts for this race. I’m not enamored with the one post, but Motion does very well with turf juveniles. One Eyed Ray is also coming out of the same SAR turf sprint as Boldlee. He broke well, set rapid fractions, and faded badly. With a more relaxed trip he could set the pace all the way around the track.

Race 7     Betting Value – B      7-5-1A

Big Town comes off a a claim by Rudy Rodriguez on a sloppy SAR track. Prior to that he was knocking around CD and OP  with moderate success. You have to throw out the last race in the slop – although he has a good wet track record, he never really got into that race. He’s a solid front runner and certainly fits at this class level. He hasn’t run a one turn race in quite a while, but he has enough speed to control the race. Groomedforvictory was another last out claim, this time for Micelle Nevin who was sizzling at SAR. He has the fastest  pace figure and a nice pressing style. Nevin gave the horse a nice series of workouts, the last a bullet five-furlong zip on the BEL main. Nevin is 28% with a positive ROI first off the claim, and the Nevin-Johnny V combination is hitting at 23%. It is interesting to note Nevin was the trainer of the horse earlier this year for a victory at a mile on the AQU inner dirt. Wealth to Me will take up the charge with the scratch of stablemate Joan’s Choice. He is another of the myriad claims by David Jacobson. He’s been claimed five times in his last seven races and rarely runs a clunker. He looks well placed, and definitely has the figures to be successful.

Race 8      Betting Value – B      2-3-4

Groupthink goes for trainer Chad Brown. He’s a perfect 6 for 6 in the money lifetime, and has been knocking at the door in his last two. In his last he went very wide around the turn but finished with good energy. He has a nice pressing style and is well suited for the seven furlong distance. Here Comes Tommy is one of those chronic seconditis horse, with 11 seconds and thirds and only one win in 29 starts. He has the figures and the talent to win, but his heart is suspect. Much higher probability of in the money than win finish. Broadway Bay is only making his third start . He broke his maiden in the mud at SAR at today’s distance in a somewhat slow time. Given the muddy track, the race may not be representative of the horse’s true ability and given the small number of starts improvement is reasonably likely.

Race 9      Betting Value – C      3-8-9

This group two year old state-bred maiden fillies is trying 5 1/2 furlongs, all but two for the first time. This race is wide open so watch the board. Take Issue is a Steve Assmussen trained filly with a long series of works coming up to this race. The breeding of the horse is ordinary  but Assmussen and Jose Ortiz are hitting at a 28% clip.  My Sweet Ellierose has one start at Timonium where she was bounced around at the start but still retained enough interest to finish third. Giant Hearted Lee is the other Rudy Rodriguez starter. Unlike her stablemate, she has no breaks in a long training schedule and should be ready for her debut. The scratch of Forestry’s Majesty is in Giant Hearted Lee‘s favor.