Another so-so weekend card from Belmont. Yesterday the best opportunities came early. Today I don’t have a real sense that there are a lot of big opportunities waiting, but here goes.
Race 1 Betting Value – B 5-4-2-6
Wild Kay is listed at 5-2 on the morning line and I’d be surprised if she didn’t go off at less than 2-1. She looks to be the controlling speed and that should count for a lot in this field. She won at this class two months ago, was claimed, and Patrick Quick unsuccessfully tried her in a couple of higher claiming races. He drops her to her best level today and she is 2 for 2 on the BEL main. Are there concerns? Sure. Quick is a 7% trainer from less than 100 starts in 2014. Andre Worrie is still riding with a 7 pound bug and has a 7% win rate. However, he does seem to be able to get a horse out of the gate, and in this race that could be all the difference. Inaflash is a hard-trying horse that suffers from a mild case of seconditis. She’s certainly no better than this class level and is another with low level connections. Still, she has good enough figures to be somewhere close by at the finish. Golden Rule is the X-Factor here. She has been racing primarily at Parx at slightly higher levels, and fits well in this spot. Allie Sweet has been running longer, but when she has been in condition she has figures very competitive with this field. Unfortunately in her last two she faded badly after contesting the lead for 3/4 of a mile. On a positive note, her last win came at Belmont in an off the turfer. She was claimed last out for $25K by low-profile, high win percentage trainer Diane Balsamo. If she wins this race at best it is a break-even proposition. Somewhat ambiguous, but scarier not to use than to use.
Race 2 Betting Value – C 4-8-1
Not a sterling field of $40K maidens going 6F on the turf. The scratch of Megsmelia changes the race quite a bit. Lochan changed barns over the summer after two unimpressive races at CD. She’s only had one turf start in four lifetime attempts, but it was enough to give me confidence she’ll be fine on the turf today. She drops from straight maidens, a powerful angle, and gets the services of Javier Castellano. Stay In Front has been on the sidelines for a year and changes hands from Chad Brown to Rudy Rodriguez. She ran a bang-up race in a straight maiden on the Saratoga turf at first asking, so she runs well fresh. If Rudy Rodriguez has her wound up she will be dangerous. Acrostic showed good speed in a turf race at BEL a year ago but has tailed off since. Still, with the lack of real speed in the race, I have to give her a slight chance.
Race 3 Betting Value – B 3-5-4
The first running of the Sky Beauty brings together a short field of five Montana Native has been a consistent sort and has been racing in Graded stakes company at Monmouth and Delaware. She is a pace pressing sort and in this field will probably go to the front and is a good bet to stay there. She’s been game in most of her races. Clement and Rosario have been a good combination. John Shirreffs brings Katie’s Garden to BEL off a win in an OC62 at Saratoga. She’s had plenty of time to recover from that effort and should be the one coming at Montana Native in the stretch. Toasting is at a bit of a disadvantage given her closing style here. If Castellano has her close enough in the stretch she could be dangerous. She has two wins from six starts at BEL.
Race 4 Betting Value – C 4-3-2
After 7 of 8 first or second in 2013, including a close second to superhorse Wise Dan in the BC Mile, Za Approval is still looking for his first victory of 2014. On paper he is the classiest horse in the field but has been burning money this year. It’s not a particularly strong field, and 8-5 on this horse wouldn’t make him much of a value proposition. Right beside him in the starting gate will be Pass the Dice. This lightly raced 6 year-old seems to have found some vigor in 2014 with a third in a Graded stakes and a second in a restricted stakes in his last. While he hasn’t been on the grass in a while, he does have two wins from three turf starts. His figures have been consistently strong this year and he is in a good spot to get his first win of 2014. Fredricksburg has shown good speed in his last two starts at 1 1/16 miles, including a very game second in the Oceanport at MTH. His front running style merits respect and his figures make him competitive.
Race 5 Betting Value – C 3-5-2-7
Clark Kent ran a super race (couldn’t resist) first out at FG, and top horseman Larry Jones brings him back after a five month layoff. In that FG race he was a favorite who ran into a buzzsaw in Embellishing Bob, but today he may not have such stiff competition. He should break on top and take command of the race in the stretch. Smoke Police outran his odds when finishing 3/4 lengths behind Gentrify at SAR. That race should have done him a world of good, and the fact that Chad Brown bumps him up to straight maidens seems positive. Joel Rosario stays for the race. Jazz Player was a $450K yearling purchase and is making his debut for Wounded Warrior Stables and Gary Contessa. He has a nice series of works coming into this, including a three furlong blowout just three days ago. Contessa is not strong first time out, so we’ll see how wound up this horse is. Lord Cashel goes first time for Jimmy Jerkens who has been doing very well lately.
Race 6 Betting Value – C 7-1-9-2
Another 2 year-old maiden race and another contest between Pletcher, Brown and Rudy Rodriguez. Eskenformoney has had two starts already. She looked much better in her last at 1 1/16 miles and if she continues improving she looks like the winner. Doukas just missed a month ago at Saratoga and that experience should make her a real threat today. Breach of Duty is one of the endless string of Chad Brown first timers on the turf and she has had a very nice workout pattern for this race. Miss Chatelaine is a medium price horse that gets a look based on the success Clement has had with turf 2 year-olds.
Race 7 Betting Value – B 2-4-9
Leroy Jr. is a game speed horse who ran into the streaking Dowses Beach last out. He’s listed at even money in the program and I suspect you’d be lucky to get that. Obviously this is a horse with physical issues – he’s a 5 year-old with only five starts – but in his second off a year layoff he looks the strongest on paper. Latigo Trail had been knocking on the door since June, and finally broke his maiden last out at Saratoga. Brown and Luzzi have been a profitable combination in turf sprints. Should track Leroy Jr. and take a run at him in the stretch. Sunlover is a 1 for 14 horse that has been off since last December. He doesn’t look like a winner, but could catch a piece.
Race 8 Betting Value – B 3-9-1-4
This gets old, but Chad Brown starts Fila Primera in the other 2 year-old maiden filly race at a mile on the turf. This event looks a little more ambiguous than the 6th race, but it seems everything Brown puts on the track has to get a second look. Margaret Reay ran to her odds in her debut race at SAR. I watched the race replay and she clearly wasn’t ready for the start. The assistant starter was working hard to straighten her head, but she was having none of it. She showed interest for a while and then just backed up. It’s a bit of an angle but I’m willing to pay to find out if she has learned how to relax in the gate and run her race. At 10-1 ML she should pay a rewarding price. Birkenhead looked like she was in for experience in her maiden at SAR. Tom Durkin noted in his call she was hard to handle, but David Donk is a good enough trainer to get the horse straightened out. Given her breeding she should prefer the mile distance to the sprint. Class Will Tell is the other first timer who looks well-intentioned.
Race 9 Betting Value – B 5-6-1-4
Dyker Beach is coming off an impressive win at Saratoga a month ago. He had been having a lot of trouble finding the winner’s circle, and perhaps the feeling of finishing in front will stick with him for another race. His main competition should come from Waco, a 3 year-old with plenty of early foot and a hidden good race over the BEL surface. Crafty Dreamer is one of those horses that occasionally moves over from optional claimers to take a shot in a NW1X. He’s 10 of 13 in the money and should like the 7 furlong distance. Coolusive takes the blinkers off and gets a good jockey switch to Johnny V.
Race 10 Betting Value – C 11-2-3-10
This mess of a state-bred maiden race at a mile on the turf features 10 first time starters, and yes, one of them is trained by Chad Brown. Detail breaks from the far outside, a definite disadvantage, but if she gets out and runs to her breeding, she’s the main threat. Courageisamajority goes for Graham Motion and has been working well for her debut . Call me crazy, but Loon River looks like the most solid of the two horses with a start over the track. She should improve with the stretch out. Bad Girl Phase is the other 2nd time starter. In her debut she was bumped hard at the break and really lost all chance.