It’s another day where with competitive races, some with a bit of guesswork involved.

Race 1

• 4 Shayjolie – broke her maiden at BEL, could have had one last had Divided Attention not ran lights out
• 1 Running Wild – in a five horse race it’s going to be tough to find a price; this horse is as close as you come

Race 2

• 7 May Flowers – Jeremiah Englehart has had success in this sort of race. Nice steady workout pattern including a big one last time
• 1 Sunnysammi – good speed last out, looked like she was a winner and then crashed into a wall. Came back to work well though
• 2 Desert Image – Weaver is one of the better first out, 2 year old trainers and the last workout says “go” for the filly

Race 3

• 5 Remarkable – showed big early zip and a little bit of courage in the mud last out. Could set her own pace this time
• 1 Loving Lorri – troubled trip last out, puts shades on and gets Lasix this time
• 4 Savvy Sassy – One of two Clement trainees here; Irad takes this one which suggests she’s the better; been working at BEL all along

Race 4      Ashley T. Cole

• 1 Effinex is a MTO
• 2  Front goes for the hot Jimmy Jerkens barn. He’s 2 of 6 on the BEL turf, including a win against open OC$62 in May. Last race was his best figure-wise. He’s been consistent and reliable and at 10-1 ML would be the second choice for me here.
• 3 Lubash has been something of a win machine with 10 victories in 36 starts. This 7 year-old horse was last seen finishing second a head in the West Point at SAR. He loves the BEL turf and you have to expect him to run his usual competitive race today. Totally in the mix.
• 4 Kharata has been a bit of a tease lately, but did win the Kingston two back. His figures are as solid as anyone’s in this race. He’s sharp at the moment and is 9 of 11 first or second on the BEL turf. An in the money player.
• 5 Notacatbutallama is neither of those but a horse that has burned a lot of win money. He was third in the West Point that a few of these horses are coming out of. In his last 10 starts he has never finished farther than 6 lengths behind. He’s definitely been more focused with the addition of blinkers in his last two. No surprise at all if he wins but more likely in the money.
• 6 Spa City Fever is a MTO
• 7 King Kressa was well-enough regarded to head over to Hong Kong for the prestigious $2.5 million Hong Kong Mile. He only beat two in that race and laid off until August when he came out to wire the West Point field. He’s coming back in a month and given the stress of that effort might bounce. The pace in the West Point was relatively slow early and the presence of a slew of pace pressers in this race should make it harder for him to loaf up front. He’ll be a deserved favorite, and is the top choice, but could has some vulnerability.

Race 5

• 2 Mop Head – running consistently but having some trouble getting over the top this year; a very tepid top choice
• 9 Tiz Yankee – just faltered in his last when Rosie lost her irons in the stretch; Zito jumps him up and he could hardly be in better shape, but the 2 for 22 with 10 seconds makes me wary of using him a lot on top
• 6 Make it Gold – been another frustrating runner but has the figures and potential to catch a piece
• 8 Loveisheartandsoul – 2 for 5 in a brief career, claimed by Contessa last out, improvement definitely a possibility

Race 6 

• 1/1A Be Bullish, Back Forty – Be Bullish is the stronger of the two but has had a lot of races this year. Back Forty was claimed two back, dropped for a win, and jumped back up today. Shrewd trainer  may win two in a row
• 5 Street Shark – Ian Wilkes lost the horse three back to Contessa and grabbed him again two back. Likes to win on all surfaces and tracks
• 2 Summer Sunset – threw a clunker in last out, laid off since middle of July but two nice comeback workouts; runs well fresh
• 7 Broad Rule – claimed by Abigail Absit last out and given the size of her stable, she’s always looking for wins; an outside chance

Race 7 

• 4 Day Six – showed much greater liking for mile and a sixteenth; has tactical speed and upwardly trending figures
• 7 All the Way – should be winging on the lead and will have to withstand some challenges in the stretch; Bush not so good with second start maidens, but this could be the exception
• 6 King of Bay – ran lights out after bobbling at the break. One more jump up can be the difference today
• 8 Throckmorton – missed the break, blocked and checked twice in the stretch when making a move; scary today

Race 8

• 11 Old Harbor – goes back with state-breds; likes BEL turf and has an effective pressing style; lately has been with better
• 8 Henry’s Gal – has plenty of speed, 4 of 8 wins lifetime; improving 3 year old and should be at her best distance
• 5 One Time Only – consistent but hasn’t really been facing this quality the last three outs
• 3 White Sangria – wasn’t happy at 5.5F at SAR; prefers BEL and slightly longer; 7F should be perfect. Perhaps a tad cheaper than the best in here

Race 9    John Hettinger

• 2 Frosty Bay has been uninspiring against open claimers and in restricted stakes this year. Would really have to make  big improvement to win here.
• 3 Stock Fund has been effective in ALW races, and her last win came on this BEL turf. She’s not been the distance and it looks like she’s a minor player in this one.
• 1 Carameaway – SCR
• 4 Selenite is another that hasn’t been the distance. She won a division of the NY Stallions Series last month at SAR, but that was against 3 year olds only. She also looks destined for a minor award.
• 5 Strike Accord has only won an OC $40K this year. Would have to seriously outrun her odds to get a chunk here.
• 6 Effie Trinket has been with the right crowd but has been struggling to crack the winner’s circle. She’s best on the BEL turf and has won at this distance. She has a best last out pace figure and for that I’ll put her on top.
• 1A Dreaming of Cara is 3 for 37 and her last win came two years ago. She’s 0 for 11 on the BEL turf. Not much to recommend here.
• 7 Get Gorgeous – SCR
• 8 Mah Jong Maddnes is not sweeping the country, but the horse by that name definitely has a shot here. She’s a stakes winner this year and has good speed out of the gate. She hasn’t been the distance, but if Lezcano rates her well, he could milk the mile and an eighth out of her. A contender.
• 9 Princess Mara looks like she could use the cutback in distance. Patrick Quick has not been having a good year but given the speed  Princess Mara has a chance to hit the board at long odds.
• 10 Invading Humor is another that hasn’t negotiated the distance previously. She wired a field on a slow pace last out, but doesn’t figure to get dawdling fractions today. Another with an outside shot.

Race 10

• 6 Chief Kitten – best of the prior starters, Brown/Lezcano has actually been a high percentage combo
• 4 Brother O’Connell – cuts back in distance for his second start after being wide  last time; three snappy workouts since
• 1 Gear Jammer – was wide last out but made a valiant close. Should be closer and if Alvarado finds a way clear could be the one
• 8 Mark My Style – puts the blinkers on and stretches out in distance; looks like a smart move by Contessa