In the interest of time I’m going to do a brief analysis of all the races except the features today.

Race 1

• 9  Cashmere Cat – Good early foot, switch back to winning jock Rosario
• 1  Breakeven Analysis – Game first out of 2014, should improve, Brown/Castellano helps
• 4  Santa Elf – 10 of 13 in the money, 3rd off claim for Bruce Brown, can improve today
• 6 Baratti- Tries turf today, should improve off last

Race 2

• 2 Strum – Missed break first out but outran her odds, switch to Pletcher barn a positive sign and should help
• 4  Cali Star – So far seconditis but this one turn mile should be to her liking
• 5  Garzoni – Makes 2014 debut but 2013 races showed promise; raced greenly and has obviously needed the time to mature
• 7  Sun and Moon – 5 seconds in 7 lifetime starts; she might be ready to run by horses or just drain more win money

Race 3

• 6  Pisco Bliss – First start of 2014 for Chad Brown who always has them ready; Ortiz in the saddle has been effective for Brown
• 7  Dynamon – Improving and placed correctly; has to get a better spot down the backstretch today
• 3  War Melody – all sorts of difficulty last race but looking for a better effort today
• 12  Coviello – drops into $40K claimers, gets switch to J Ortiz, showed a little improvement in last

Race 4

• 7  Moonluck – dominated cheaper company last out, was taken by shrewd David Jacobson; best races at BEL
• 5  Pecorino – just missed in the SAR mud last out; should be pressing close to the lead, likes BEL
• 3  Gentrify – broke his maiden last out, should do well against this group.

Race 5

• 5  Sleeping Giant – goes for Assmussen, ran better than looked at SAR
• 2  Magnum Opus – Excellent workout pattern, Dutrow is pretty good at having them ready first out
• 4  Night Prowler – Brown and Castellano can’t be ignored
• 11 Blazing Truth –  on the improve, Mott horses usually need a race or two

Race 6

• 11  Giant Jo – Flopped in SAR mud, but back at BEL where he’s run his best
• 4  Handsome Dennis – A few more starts between wins than I’d like to see, but last at BEL showed well; claimed last out by Maker
• 5  Aheadofthecurve – last two were in the mud and off the turf, before that broke his maiden; in the right spot today
• 9  With Expresssion – showed speed his last two, should be pressing today
• 2 Papa Freud, 3 Navajo Ca Lo, 7 Sonnyandpally, and 10 Dominate are all in professional NW2 position but can be used in the show and fourth spots in tri’s and super’s

Race 7     The Noble Damsel

• 1 Byrama has a puncher’s chance in here. She had been running nothing but graded stakes until her last, the Intercontinental at SAR. She went off as the favorite that race against a solid field of restricted stakes runners. She hasn’t won in a while and she has very marginal success at BEL. She’s listed at 10-1 on the program and that is where she probably should be.
• 2 Alaura Michele was a disappointment at Parx in the Penny Memorial and at SAR in the De  La Rose. Pletcher trains and that is always something to take into account, but she really looks a half a step below this group. She does have a win and a third in four tries at BEL.
• 3 Devilish Love is ambitiously placed her by Anthony Dutrow but does seem to be in top form. It wouldn’t be a total shock, but there are others that look better.
• 4 Love Train is probably the likeliest front runner. She’s another won that looks somewhat ambitiously placed, but is in top form and has the hot combination of Clement and Rosario.
• 5 Tokyo Time is Grade 3 placed and lately seems to be running very well. Given her stakes experience, she’s not out of the question, but at this level she has been middling at best. She’s listed as the ML second choice, and that should indicate how ambiguous the field looks.
• 6 Annecdote ships from England where she had been running competitively in Group stakes. Her races at Lingfield, Doncaster, and Goodwood were better competition than any other horse has run against, and there is no shame in losing to Integral. She gets Lasix today and Clement has been very successful with these first out European shippers. She has to be a prime contender.
• 7 Medeo has been running in the U.S. for a year and a half. She won the Grade 3 Eatontown at MTH in June but faltered in the Matchmaker. The horse has never been in better condition, but even so she seems to be a step below the best horses here.
• 8 Julie’s Love has been competitive in Graded and restricted stakes in 2013 and 2014. She only has one start this year, in the Powder Break at GP in April and she went evenly around the track.  Given her pace figures she competitive, but she needs to show a sincere interest in winning if she is to succeed. Graham Motion is 24% off the layoff.
• 9 Baffle Me was the 4th place finisher in the aforementioned De La Rose. She’s 3 of 5 on the BEL turf, and that is enough to make her a prime contender.7 furlongs to a mile seems to be her best distance, and she has plenty of tactical speed to get into the race. She is another top contender.

Race 8     The Sands Point

• 1 Xcellence is listed as the 3-1 ML second choice and deservedly so. Since coming to America she raced evenly in the Belmont Oaks and nearly won the Lake Placid. In that race jockey Joe Bravo managed to get the horse in trouble in the stretch, trying to drive up a tight rail and having to steady slightly, affecting the horse’s momentum. Despite the DRF race commentator seeming to feel the lost of Bravo was something of a negative, I think it was a relief to see Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Bravo has been nothing short of mediocre on the big stage with bad rides and bad decisions his current MO. I think Xcellence is best here and should have no problem cutting back to the mile and an eighth.
• 2 Aqua Regia is a MTO
• 3 Miss Besilu is coming out of two Grade 1 dirt races, the Alabama and the CCA Oaks. She ran well in both of those races and is 2 for 4 with a second on the turf. Given the turf is her favored surface, she has a chance, although her Graded stakes try on the turf was pretty uninspiring. Still, she’s improving and can’t be counted out.
• 4 Walk Close is coming out of the Tenski at SAR where she suffered her first lifetime loss. She’s 3 for 3 on the BEL turf, and has shown an ability to race in close without intimidation. I like 3 year olds that are showing improvement each out, and that is certainly the case with her. I think she is a must use in the win/place slots.
• 5 Sea Queen was a disappointment on the ship out to Del Mar because she looked very strong  heading into that race. She tends to run toward the front and should be with the leaders today. She has the numbers to compete in this group, but seeing her and the Bel Oaks winner Minorette both lose next out is a little disconcerting. Still, in this field she is a major player, although her odds are likely to not make her a value bet.
• 6 A little Bit Sassy won the Grade 3 Regret ( but was DQ’d) at CD and followed that by just missing in the Lake George. She is probably the best speed in the race and if the others let her go on soft fractions she’ll be hard to catch. She hasn’t run a bad one this year and can’t be ignored.
• 7 Queenofzeenile doesn’t look classy enough or fast enough for this field. She seems a pretty safe throw out.
• 8 Daring Dancer was the winner of the aforementioned Lake George. That gives her two graded stakes wins in her last three, although her race over the BEL turf as the odds on favorite was disappointing. She’ll be one of the crowd choices and although I think she has a chance, she won’t be value and she’s going to have to work a lot harder to get into this race from the 8 post. I think she is a horse that you have to beat to make money.
• 9 Duff One set all the fractions in the Lake Placid, but with only four horses in the race and none of them real front runners, that race looks a little better than it is. She doesn’t get an easy lead today which means she’s going to have to close by some better sustained runners. Another that wouldn’t be a total shock, but not a horse that looks like a good bet.
• 10 Ball Dancing interestingly was in the same Prix de Diane as Xcellence at Chantilly and only finished half a length behind that one. She’s lightly raced, having not started until March of this year,  and seems to be one of those improving three year olds I like. However, that being said, I don’t think she is one of those powerful Europeans that comes to America to dominate. She, like Xcellence, is probably in need of softer competition. I’m not so sure Joe Bravo had his choice of mounts and opted here, given what I thought was about as disadvantageous a ride as Xcellence could have gotten. I think Chad Brown threw him this bone for taking him off Xcellence. You have to respect Chad Brown, but the fact is that she is going to have to run her best to get a check. But if she does run her best, she’s a prime contender.

Race 9

• 4  Daredevil – first out for Pletcher, excellent breeding and a good workout pattern
• 5  Leave the Light On – Chad Brown firster, big sales price for a horse from a lesser stallion
• 9 On Tenterhooks – troubled trip first out, best of the horses that have started.
• 2  Mizumi – goes for Assmussen; Harlan’s Holiday sires a lot of precocious 2 year olds, good steady workout pattern

Race 10

• 12 Hurry Up Allen – gets the nod in a fairly poor field; Jacobson is hot lately
• 7 Analysis – 7 starts and he’s been through his NW2X condition; in shape and is better than 15-1 ML odds
• 8  Morning Calm – has been with better earlier this year, just won against state breds, needs to avoid getting boxed around the turn
• 4 Mobridge – consistent sort, good pace figure, plodding style not really an advantage her but always is closing
• 10 Sneaky Kitten has 10 seconds from 20 starts but only 2 wins. Hard to leave out of combination bets in the minor spots. 11 Why Not Whiskey is another with in the money but less probable win tendencies.