Unfortunately you just get the numbers today (before scratches) since today is the anniversary of my birth. While I had time to handicap early, with partying I had no time to do a detailed write-up. So I’ll know how many of you read the blog by how many birthday wishes I get! And I won’t specifically say anything about age, but when I was born Eisenhower was president.

Race 1.  3-6-1

Race 2.  4-2-8-6

Race 3.  3-2-4

Race 4.  3-5-8

Race 5.  1/1A-3-5

Race 6.  8-4-7-6

Race 7.  Primary 5-1-9  Secondary (2, 4, 10)

Race 8.  3-6-4-1

Race 9.  Primary 2-10-7  Secondary (3, 6)

Race 10.  Primary 10-7-1  Secondary (2, 3, 8)

Race 11.  Primary 1-8-4  [If 11, 12, or 14 draw in from the AE list they would be on the contenders list]

Travers Day. The culmination of the Saratoga season, which has been very good to me again. With 13 races no analysis on the early events, just the stakes.

Race 1.  Primary 2-3-1  Secondary (4, 10)

Race 2.  Primary 10-1-11  Secondary (2, 3, 6, 8)

Race 3.  Primary 4-1A-2  Secondary (3, 6)

Race 4,  Primary 10-3-5-7 Secondary (1, 8)

Race 5. Primary 10-5-6  Secondary (3, 7, 8)

Race 6.  2-5-1

This edition of the Personal Ensign looks like it is Curalina’s to lose. She had a smashing victory in the Shuvee and has had good success at SAR. She hasn’t run in anything but Grade 1’s since June 2015 and her figures are very consistent. Should be in a good spot turning for home. Cavorting looks like the major competition. She’s a multiple Grade 1 winner and is three of three at SAR. Although it may look like a two horse race, I’m a Chatterbox can’t be discounted. The winner of the G1 Delaware handicap last out ran a lifetime top in that race and a figure that puts her in the vicinity of Curalina. Forever Unbridled was second to Cavorting in the Ogden Phipps and in a five horse field she can’t be thrown out of the verticals. Paid Up Subscriber may be the speed in this field but just doesn’t look as accomplished as the others.

Race 7.  9-2-8-3

This is a good renewal of the Ballerina. Carina Mia gets the slight nod in this version. She was second to the powerful Songbird in her last but before that was an impressive winner in the 8 Belles and the Acorn. She has a nice stalking style and has the top last out figure. By the Moon may be the value play in this race. She beat Wavell Avenue in the Bed O Roses showing an impressive turn of foot coming out of the turn. Ortiz opts to ride the 3, but the switch to Castellano isn’t a downgrade at all. Wavell Avenue came out of the Bed  O Roses to win the Shine Again at SAR in an excellent time. She likes the track with two wins in three tries. Off her best she’s a prime contender. Paulassilverlining has been competitive in G2 and G3 events. She may be a half step below the choices in this race but she may be part of the early pace picture.

Race 8.  Primary 2-1-6-13  Secondary (3, 8)

The King’s Bishop is one of the most anticipated races of the season. Lots of contenders in here. Fish Trappe Road seems perfect for the 7F distance. He comes off a win in the Dwyer around one turn and looks to have developed quite a bit since his two year old and early three year old seasons. At 8-1 ML he’s worth a long look. Economic Model was second in the Dwyer and adds blinkers today. Chad Brown is 22% with that move. Irad Ortiz opts to stay with the horse. The most interesting horse is Mohaymen, especially at 5-1 ML. He was up against it in the Jim Dandy here a month ago after stumbling at the start, but he is still one of the quality three year olds in training. He showed he could negotiate the one turn sprint in his first two starts, and showed a good tracking style since. Based on breeding, this distance should be to his liking. Junior has to break the horse cleanly today and get a good attacking spot. He has every right to win this race. Defrong ships in for Bob Baffert and gets a nod on that basis. Plus, his last race figure thoroughly tops the field.  Summer Revolution is one of those young horses that can jump up and surprise. Mind Your Biscuits was a solid winner of the Amsterdam and can’t be dismissed out of hand.

Race 9.  Primary 11-8-1  Secondary (2, 9)

The two primary contenders are A.P. Indian and Marking. The former is on a three race winning streak including the 7FBelmont Sprint. He has a win on the SAR dirt. The latter was coming at the winner in the Belmont Sprint, losing by only a head. He looks recovered from the trip to Dubai and I like the switch to Rosario for this run. Stallwalkin‘ Dude comes off an good win in the Tale of the Cat at SAR. He loves the track and looks like he is at the top of his form cycle. Catalina Red comes off a series of Graded efforts including a win at this distance at CD. The figures say he is a main contender with this group. Chief Lion was second in the Tale of the Cat after lugging out with the lead in the stretch. Can’t be dismissed out of hand. Ready for Rye looks like he has some potential for the verticals.

Race 10.  Primary 6  Secondary ( 1, 2, 4)

Not a lot of need to go deep in this race. Flintshire is the best turf horse running in America and unless something strange happens he should be a short-priced winner. If you feel inclined to go deep, Grand Tito, Money Multiplier and Twilight Eclipse are the most likely upsetters.

Race 11.  Primary 4-7-8  Secondary(2, 10, 14)

The Travers is the race everyone is here to see. I like the race Governor Malibu ran in the Jim Dandy, and I actually think the mile and a quarter should be no problem. The good news and bad news are the same thing with this horse – nine starts, two wins but five seconds. But on a fast and fair track, I think the Governor should prove he is the three year old who has blossomed since the spring. Exaggerator is the obvious choice in this field, having beaten Nyquist handily in the Haskell. The question – is he just a good rather than great three year old when the track is fast. We’ll find out today. Destin disappointed in the Jim Dandy (and broke my heart in the Belmont) but I’m  willing to give him one more chance. I’m not throwing Laoban in the mix, and perhaps that is a mistake, but I think  his race in the Jim Dandy, while garnering an impressive number, was a fluke. We’ll find out today. Instead I’ll look at American Freedom, who ran the most impressive race in the Haskell, Connect, and improving three year old that was an impressive wire to wire winner in the Curlin, and Gun Runner who clearly needed that race in the Jim Dandy.

Race 12.  Primary 3-5-8  Secondary (6, 7)

Let’s face it. Lady Eli is the clear sentimental favorite. The old Lady Eli was an overlay at even money. But I don’t know what to think about the Lady Eli post-laminitis.  You can’t bet her with both fists, but the Lady Eli of 2014-15 would be a solid pick here. But let’s be realistic. We have no idea if she comes back better as a four year old, and we know some of the other horses have improved since last year. One of those is Sentiero Italia whose prep for this race was impressive She simply doesn’t ever run a bad race and should be every bit the match for the top pick. Miss Temple City is another that has to be considered. That last race was excellent, and she’s clearly a Grade 1 horse. She’s recovered from Dubai, where she showed her exceptional closing ability. While she is a solid closer notice at today’s distance she is 2 for 2. Strike Charmer is better than her 20-1 ML odds and can make the verticals. Onus is another that interests me. Notice in her last she had the lead at the stretch call before folding. The cutback in distance should be in her favor.

Race 13. 10-11-7-6

Race 1. Doesn’t look like there is anything tricky here. It looks like the winner will come from Gold for the King, Syndergaard, and Bobby on Fleek. Gold for the King had trouble in his first out on the same day that Syndergaard ran, and both ran about the same time. At the odds I’ll look harder at Gold for the King. 3-5-4

Race 2. Tough race with a lot of unknowns. Super Mama goes for Chad Brown and he is just excellent with debuting turf fillies. Filly Madison ran well on a sloppy track at SAR and tries the turf today. Breeding seems better for the turf and adds Lasix for this effort. About that Base should show speed today and could be tough to catch.  4-8-11

Race 3. Another race with no obvious throw-outs. Cause I’m Alex didn’t run badly on the slop at SAR. He’s the best closer in the race and has a good lifetime win percentage. Onecats Chance has been on a good run lately and has a nice work at the SPA for this race. Has a win at SAR in four races. Deuces High didn’t show well in the NY Derby at FL, but drops to a level that should allow him to show the talent he flashed in breaking his maiden. Primary 5-4-1  Secondary (3, 7)

Race 4. Moonshine Cafe ran well in her debut last year at SAR, laid off 10 months and ran decently at BEL. Comes back in seven weeks with a series of useful works at SAR. Preying Mantis has nine starts, and that is more than I usually like to see, but he has shown well on the turf lately. Catch Your Dreams goes for Jonathan Sheppard who is still a good turf trainer. Top last race figure. Primary 2-4-7  Secondary (8, 9) **Note: With this race off the turf only Moonshine Cafe stays in from the contenders list. That would make 5 Cahirciveen and 1 Cashconsiderations the more likely winners. 

Race 5. Nothing tricky here for me. The likely top choices Hit it Once, Jet Black and Extinct Charm look best. Primary 6-1-3  Secondary (7)

Race 6.  Totally wide open race. Lucky Lou Pal, The Great Samurai and Follow the Signs get the primary nod for me.  Primary 8-7-2  Secondary (5, 10) 

Race 7. I didn’t think there were any throw-outs in this running of the Seeking the Ante. Code Red ran wide entering the stretch but finished powerfully. Workouts suggest she should be ready in this spot. Tiznow’s Smile has a few positives. She didn’t break sharply and was well out of the race early, but finished strongly. She takes the blinkers off today and adds Lasix for this run. At 10-1 she’s the one I’ll be most interested in looking at for a win bet. Twist ‘n Shout dueled early and them dominated a field in the slop a month ago. Can’t discount her chances.  Primary 4-3-5  Secondary (2, 6, 7)

Race 8. The Yaddo is always an entertaining race and this renewal is likely to live up to that billing. Fourstar Crook draws in off the AE list looking for her fifth win in a row for Chad Brown. Her last is the top figure for the field. Neck of the Moon has been prepped for this race by Chad Brown. As a 5 year old she won at this distance on the SAR turf, and has only seemed to have gotten better in 2016, placing in two stakes at BEL. The works should have her ready to roll. Her last race was a lifetime best. The Tea Cups is back to defend her title in this race. She had a trouble start in her last and didn’t finish well, but she is top notch running against state breds. She likes the distance and likes SAR. Distorted Beauty isn’t really jumping up in class. She ran well in her last out at SAR and her figures suggest she fits in this race. Primary 13-10-7-11  Secondary (2, 3, 9) 

Race 9. The West Point brings together some of the better NY bred turf horses. King Kreesa is my choice here. He was second to Lubash in last year’s running of this race and looks to be in top shape having run competitively in the G1 Fourstardave. Kharafa ran well in the Oceanport, just losing to Blacktype. He’s always a threat in these statebred stakes.  Primary 2-4  Secondary (1, 3)

Race 10.  The Fleet Indian brings together a competitive field of fillies. Super Surprise has been running well for Pletcher this year and comes off a win at SAR. Consistent runner should have no trouble with the step up in distance. Highway Star had some trouble at the break last out when tried on the turf but still showed some interest. Back to the dirt today and that should put her in with a better chance today. Mecke’s Madalyn just missed in the NY Oaks at FL and should be fine with the stretch out. Last race figure suggests she competes well in this group. Primary 5-2-6  Secondary (3, 4)

Race 11. The closer is a tough race, especially if it moves off the turf. Primary 15-2-8  Secondary (1, 5, 6, 10)

Race 2. A lot of uncertainties here, but I like the drop Risener is taking today. A little bit of a chance, but at 8-1 he might be worth a second look. Trappe is dropping a little bit less, but is adding blinkers. In his last he never got away from the gate and made no real effort, but he was 9/2 in his debut and has Steve Asmussen in his corner. Mr. Curiosity ran very well in his 2016 debut and switches to the RuRod barn. Irad stays for the ride.  3-2-7

Race 3.  Tough race with more than a few unknowns. I’m going with the horse that has had some experience, Jacqueline D.  Primary 3-6-7-9  (13, 15 if they draw in are contenders)

Race 4.  This is one of a couple of races today where there are a plethora of contenders. Saluda is at 15-1 on the ML but if you toss the last race on the turf, the prior race is competitive. Dreamboat Annie showed a little bit of speed last out and drops a bit in price. The drop should help her hold her speed longer. Lady Luciano has had a decent 2016 and her figures suggest she’s competitive here.  Primary 2-7-5  Secondary (1, 3)

Race 5.  I don’t think there is a real throw out in this race. Dom the Bomb had three races on the synthetic at AP but prior to that had a big number on the dirt in a higher class. Rich ‘n’ Tuck was over his head last race but is at a much kinder level today. Winter Games was claimed last out by DJ off a strong win at $32K and fits well at this level.  Primary 1-3-5  Secondary (4, 6, 7)

Race 6. I tend to look for horses that haven’t gotten too close to professional maiden status. The horses that fit best for me are Bright Side Up, Queenofthechannel, and Laquesta. Primary 1-3-5  Secondary (4, 6, 7)

Race 7. No Texting was claimed last out by RuRod who laid him off for nine months. Rudy is not known for horses coming off layoffs, but the horse has done well off the layoff previously. Should be the speed in this race, Shalako comes off a win at SAR and is actually looking for his fourth in a row. Steamboat Bill always seems to be competitive. Figures put him right in the middle of this race.  Primary 11-3-8  Secondary (2, 4, 5, 9)

Race 8.  Cadeyrn has been on my list of horses to keep an eye on, and should be the one to catch today. Flash Trading shipped in for Albert Stall and impressively beat a field $50K starter ALW horses. Should be the one bearing down on the leader in the stretch. Primary 4-5  Secondary (1, 6, 7)

Race 9.  On Leave hasn’t run a bad one in her short career and is looking for her third win in a row. Actually had a second at SAR as a 2YO. Pricedtoperfection is one of the three horses trained by Chad Brown. She ran decently in the BEL Oaks and has a win in a G3 at GP. Island Reward moves over to the Chad Brown barn and he is 24% first time with new charges. At 12-1 she could be the overlooked horse.   Primary 7-8-1  Secondary (2, 3, 4, 10)

Race 10. Rio Vista didn’t run badly last out with $50K starter ALW horses. Figures are competitive. Ellenvelyn just broke her maiden for $40K and should be in a good pressing position. The drop to 5.5F shouldn’t hurt. Peppermint Stick makes her second start for RuRod. She’s at 12-1 which is worth giving her a longer look.  Primary 11-8-1  Secondary (4, 6, 10)

Race 2. Not a lot of insight here since the horses likely to get bet look best. I went with Chorus Line a horse that made a good debut last November at AQU, and actually didn’t run that badly in her 2016 debut three weeks ago at SAR. Expecting some improvement this time. Phantom Phasr adds blinkers today and usually Albertrani horses need a race or two. Antebellum moves back to the dirt after trying the turf for a while. Learning Curve is making the big drop today and may be tops based on back class. 4-9-1-8

Race 3. Bee Noteworthy never got out of the gate but made a decent run considering it was her 2016 debut. The drop in price should help today. Staff Sgt Reckless should be better at the sprint distance. The entry of Papa’s Missile and Redneck Gold both look well placed in this field. Primary 6-2-1/1A  Secondary (4, 5)

Race 4.  This race looks extremely wide open. Undercutter looked good breaking his maiden, but didn’t break and may have been over his head in his first with winners. He has enought speed to benefit from the one post. Zoot Suit is coming off a five month layoff, but has shown some talent at the short turf sprint distance. Seems better suited for the turf. Tapit Wicked has a bad case of seconditis, with 7 place finishes in 16 starts. Obviously he has the talent, but will he have the heart? Big Air made his SAR debut three years ago and it was inauspicious to say the least. Based on his last he certainly gets consideration.  Primary 1-8-3-11  Secondary (4, 5, 10)

Race 5. Very difficult race. While Johnny V normally rides debuting 2YO’s for Pletcher, in this race he went to Dr. Stone. Bruce Levine is struggling at SAR, but I’ll give him a nod today. Out of Trouble goes for Kieran McLaughlin who is a solid  21% with first timers. Great Neck has a start over the SAR dirt. She ran evenly to finish 3rd last out and should improve with the experience.  Primary 8-7-3  Secondary (2, 5, 6)

Race 6. A little more predictable 2YO race. Forge is the Chad Brown entrant and looks very tough off his last race. Let’s Get Loud goes for top 2YO trainer Wesley Ward. Toshiro goes first time for top turf trainer Graham Motion.  Primary 6-2-7  Secondary (3)

Race 7.  Greywalls is an interesting choice for me. She has been racing at a higher price, so the drop should be helpful. She has a win in two tries at SAR and she looks like she is cycling up in her form cycle. Littlemissperfect ran a good second and was claimed last out by Linda Rice who is 31% with a positive ROI first off the claim. She is dynamite on the dirt, but competent on the turf. Have to trust Rice  to place the horse where she has the best chance of winning. Emerald Pond goes for Chad Brown and you can’t ignore his turf fillies, especially considering she’s got three wins in four starts this year. Primary 5-4-2  Secondary (1, 8, 10)

Race 8. Saratoga Heater already has two wins at SAR and is looking to come back in three days to make it three in a row. Jacobson is actually 22% with that move. John’s Island has struggled a bit to find the winner’s circle this year but in his defense he’s been racing with much better than this group. More Zen Tea was claimed last out by Steve Asmussen after just missing three weeks ago. Should be finishing quickly in the stretch. Primary 6-1-4  Secondary (2)

Race 9. My Afleet has proven he can run the long distance races as he proved in 2014 at SAR with a win and a second. He’s been with better in the past and looks like he is cycling up to a top effort. Mr. Maybe has been running with graded horses this year and has the top figures in this field. Will be very tough in this spot. Renown jumped to the flats after doing well as a hurdle horse and won a stakes at DEL. I actually like horses that can run well over both the hurdles and the flat, and Elizabeth Voss is a good trainer.  Primary 7-3-1. Secondary (2, 5)

Race 10.  Stella Street is the Chad Brown horse dropping in price and has to be considered the main contender here. Magnesia Big Girl raced well when placed at this level last out. Figures suggest she’s right in the mix. Rosedale Arch didn’t have her best chance on the slop last out and the return to the turf should help her today. Primary 4-10-11  Secondary (2, 6, 9)

Race 1.  4-1-3

Race 2.  4-8-9 (12 if he draws in)

Race 3.  8-1-3

Race 4.  2-1-11-5

Race 5.  Primary 1-8-2  Secondary (3, 4)

Race 6.  Primary 2-5-3  Secondary (6, 7, 8)

Race 7.  9-5-3

Race 8.  Primary 2-1-5  Secondary (6, 7)

Race 9.  Primary 11-2-5  Secondary (1, 8, 9)

Race 10.  Primary 2-6-9  Secondary (1)

Race 11.  Primary 7-1-8  Secondary (4, 5, 6)

No time to write up the analysis, so just the picks today.

Race 1.  1-2-4

Race 2.  Primary 5-7-6  Secondary (4, 9)

Race 3.  4-6-5

Race 4.  2-5-3

Race 5.  Primary 4-1-5  Secondary (6, 7, 9)

Race 6.  10-1-3

Race 7.  Primary 5-3-8  Secondary (4, 7, 10)

Race 8.  Primary 4-10-5  Secondary (3, 6, 7, 9)

Race 9.  Primary 8-6-4  Secondary (1, 3, 9)

Race 10.  Primary 6  Secondary (4, 5, 7)

Race 11.  Primary 3-9-1  Secondary (4, 6, 7 , [11, 12])

Race 12.  Primary 10-9-11  Secondary (4, 5, 12)

That makes two days in a row that the P4 paid over $2,500 and two days in a row where you could have had it if you followed my picks. Today Saratoga is trying to make up for some of the races that were washed out last week. With 11 races, some of the race analyses will be abbreviated.

Race 1. One More Round sticks out on figures here, but will have to contend with Chad Brown first timer Homewood Field. Clear the Mine has six previous starts and has shown some talent. Could be the one if either of the top two are not in top shape.  2-3-5

Race 2. Another race without a lot of clever analysis. Tashreeh is making a price drop and that should help him hold his speed better. Evolution had all sorts of trouble at the start last out but prior to that had been on a good streak. Steve’s Image hesitated at the break last out and that probably cost him any chance at the win. Should show better today.  1-7-4

Race 3. At the risk of sounding repetitive, the favorites look best in this race. Wellabled has a big number off his AP race. Freud’s Friend showed some courage in the stretch in winning his last race over this course. Iron Mane dominated a field at IND and runs for top 2YO trainer Wesley Ward.  1-5-6

Race 4. Finally a competitive affair. This one actually swings all the way to the other side with a lot of potential contenders. Burndines is the clear speed in this one. Anthony Dutrow hasn’t been spending a lot of time at SAR this year, but the horses he has brought in have been live. Speed has not been reliable on the turf, but he doesn’t have a lot to push him. Farhaan has a win at SAR this year to go with his win from two years ago, and McLaughlin brings him back at the same price. He doesn’t race often on the turf, but when he does he seems to run good figures. Abtaal ran third in the aforementioned race with Farhaan and could improve here.  Primary 7-10-3  Secondary 1, 5, 6

Race 5. Frankly you can’t immediately toss anyone out of this race. I’m putting Tale of Life, Doyouknowsomething, and Mr. Palmer constitute my top three, but you can’t immediately toss Transparent or Securitiz, and Muqtaser could be anything.  2-1-5

Race 6. This race has a lot of potential value. Prime Time Man goes for D Wayne Lukas. The coach is not nearly the trainer he once was, but he can occasionally recapture old glory. This horse broke slowly last out, but ran evenly and finished with a good figure. Maybe the sentimental pick, but he can’t be discounted. Approvethismessage may be the best of the speed horses, and he goes for Midwest trainer Stephen Lyster who has a pretty good win percentage. Castellano takes the ride. Mambo at the Gym seems to be suffering from some seconditis but has the figures to compete in this group.  Primary 10-7-3  Secondary 6,9

Race 7. Picco Uno hasn’t run a bad one in his short four race career and has the best last race figure. Jason Servis has been having a good SAR meet. Even Bette had no speed last out but still made a decent run to pass horses and get third. She should outrun her 15-1 ML odds today. Riot Worthy has been showing signs of seconditis but has still shown enough talent to be a factor here at the end.  Primary 8-2-10  Secondary 7, 9

Race 8. This is a confusing and competitive race. Startwithsilver has two good races in her last two turf starts. Linda Rice has been having a good SAR meet. My Kinda Gal has raced well since breaking her maiden. She should thrive at the sprint distance. Little Bear Cat has been in good form for David Cannizzo and gets an interesting switch to Irad Ortiz.  Primary 9-8-3  Secondary 2, 4, 5, 7

Race 9. In this race the favorites look best, although there are a number of contenders.  Primary 2-3-9  Secondary 4, 5, 6

Race 10. The Adirondack was one of the races cancelled on Saturday. The selections still stay the same. Primary 7-3-5  Secondary 2, 6

Race 11. Wide open race.  Primary 5-6-7  Secondary 1, 4, 9, 10

Pretty good day yesterday. The $2 late P4 came back at over $2,500, which makes two I’ve hit in the last week that paid over $2,500.  Another interesting weekday card.

Race 1. This race is ambiguous for me. Winter Springs was claimed by low percentage trainer Ray Handal from high percentage trainer Chad Brown. If Brown was still training the horse he’d be bet fairly heavy and deservedly so. But Handal is 0 for 8 first off the claim, and overall he’s 3 for 26 this year. Despite having good figures (for Brown) the Handal connection gives reason for pause. His distance breeding isn’t strong, but he has been with much better in the recent past. His Saratoga record isn’t strong either, but he adds blinkers. Overall, he has a reasonable chance of winning, but I’m going to go light in his direction. Neoclassic is a contender in this race, but he has been busy lately, racing opening week at SAR and then popping over to MTH where he didn’t really make an impression. Still, his SAR races have been pretty good and I give him a puncher’s chance in here. Dream Man is the likely favorite here despite having no experience at the distance, He switches to the Contessa barn for this run, and Contessa is not notable for his proficiency with new runners. His numbers look positive though. Artic North at least has been the distance, albeit with limited success. He doesn’t have impressive numbers, but he has been with better. Dendrite may be the surprise in the race. His numbers are enough to put him in the mix, and he could be the controlling speed in a race without much speed, but his win percentage is weak. Carlos Martin runs him back in five days, and if this is a serious move I think it may upgrade the horse.  5-4-1

Race 2. This seems to be a competitive affair. Ghareeb is one of the horses that doesn’t look like a winner to me, but could be part of the verticals. He’s got a second at the distance and a second at SAR. He looks better on the turf, but has some decent races on the dirt. Norm the Giant just won at PRX and steps up to the next condition. Another one that doesn’t get me excited in the win column, but has some prospects for the verticals. Swivel ran a decent race at SAR in the first week of the meet and he has an intervening maintenance work. His numbers are a little below the top contenders, but I like his chances in here. Don’t Point was gelded since his last. He’s another that has a win and is moving up to the next level. Can’t be underestimated as a win prospect. Shadow Rider threw in a clunker in his SAR race last out but he was clearly over his head. Prior to that he won at a higher price and off his best he is a serious contender. Chubby Master doesn’t have a ton of speed and will have to overcome the outside post, but he is dropping to a lower level. Another with vertical potential.  10-7-8

Race 3. Small field, but a competitive group. Breaking Bread was beaten by Carina Mia last out, and that one returned to win a graded stakes. The layoff gives some reason to pause, but given how well she ran first time out and the nice workout pattern, I’m putting her on top. Chase Motto looks very competitive in this group. She has a decent race over the track three weeks ago and should relish the distance. Fellini is making his 2016 debut and ran well in two races last year. She’s been well thought of and looks to be coming to the race off a nice series of works. Blenheim Palace was third in the race where Chase Motto finished second. That certainly puts her in the mix.  2-3-1A-6

Race 4. Not a lot of insight here. The horses that are likely to be bet look like the contenders. I have them ranked in the following order 7-3-1-5

Race 5. Something of a crapshoot. Divine Cause goes for George Weaver who has been having a somewhat disappointing meet. Still the works on the turf training track are encouraging. Reconsider It has excellent breeding for the turf and the distance, although the works are not inspiring. Both Impazible Angela and My Mission are well bred for the sprint. Very Fashionable may have the biggest advantage with Mike Hushion being the trainer.  6-5-2

Race 6. Another two year old affair. Ethan Hunt looks the best of the  horses with a start. Mirai goes for top conditioner Chad Brown. Chatter Pattern starts for the other good 2YO conditioner RuRod.  3-8-1

Race 7. Pretty decent field for a NW1X, but again, not a lot of insight. Malibu Stacy looked good in finishing second in the Victory Ride. Kelsocait and Fifth and Madison both are coming off impressive maiden wins and both should be battling up front. Inheritance and Open Arms are not without some small chances.  7-6-3

Race 8. This is a competitive race. Saratoga Dreamer has a win and a second at SAR and his most recent win at 7F at BEL was strong. The switch to Castellano should be helpful, but I’m resisting putting him in the top three. Dowse’s Beach only has two starts as a five year old  so he has room for improvement today. First, the horse seems to really enjoy the distance on Saratoga’s turf course. Irad Ortiz is his regular rider and has been doing well at SAR. Mosler will probably achieve favoritism. His last race figure dominates this field and his last two works suggest he’s raring to go. Flashaway has been gelded since his last start and is making his 2016 debut. An outside chance here. Night Officer is a specialist at the distance and is coming off a good race in the Turf Sprint at PIM. Sandy’z Slew is another with an outside chance.  4-2-7

Race 9. This version of the Union Avenue has a good field. Quezon is the likely second choice. Her figures are good, but do not soar above some of the others in this field. A prime contender. Court Dancer has an impressive win last out in a lower level, but given the condition she has an outside chance. Dr. Fager’s Gal ships in from California for Jerry Hollendorfer. She has consistent figures and I always like good sprinters from the West Coast. Perhaps the change in scenery will do her some good. Hot City Girl will probably go favorite at post time, but she is not unbeatable. She should be the one to catch, but there is a enough speed in the race so that she doesn’t get away with soft fractions. Familyofroses is another with an outside chance.  3-6-7

Race 10. While Slapstick will probably go favorite he’s making his eighth start and I’m not usually excited about horses having that much trouble breaking their maidens. He seemed to improve with the drop to MCL, and he deserves one more chance to crack the winners circle. 3-1-4

Late P4

7th  3, 6, 7  primary,  4, 5 secondary

8th  2, 4, 7  primary,  1,6,8 secondary

9th  3, 6, 7  primary,  4,8 secondary

10th  1, 3, 4  primary,  5, 7, 9 secondary

Race 2. Doesn’t look like a prime race for me. Jademarie has been turfing lately. She’s moving back to the dirt and is taking a pretty substantial drop in price. That may explain the 3-1 ML but her overall win percentage suggests she might need more to propel her over the top. Broadway Music Gal looks like the choice to me. She doesn’t often run a bad one and she has a win on the SAR dirt. Sole Victory just doesn’t look good enough here. I think Spa Town Parade is better than her 15-1 ML odds and she’ll make my top three here. She looked very good a few months ago, and frankly I think she’s been a bit over her head lately. Off her best she can be part of the verticals. Lutheran Miss is obvious here. She’s coming off a two race winning streak, but she is taking on a tougher group. Second choice for me.  2-5-4

Race 3. Not a lot of insight here. Askfor Forgiveness has a start over the track and some good figures, but she’ll get a lot of action. Must use in the horizontals though. Cash Considerations is the Chad Brown first timer. Sprinting on the dirt not Brown’s bread and butter, but you can’t leave her out. Wild With Style had all sorts of trouble with her first start over this SAR dirt, so she gets a second chance today. Leo O’Brien is not the trainer he once was, but he still can get it done.  4-5-1

Race 4. While Akatea and Industrial Policy both look tough in here, I’m leaning toward Darling Sky at 6-1 ML. She came to SAR live, running a good one to the solid Sentiero Italia. She is fast enough to get the win here and represents the value.  4-2-5

Race 5. Sugar Trip seems to stick out here and I’d consider using him as a single. In his first start he was green early, but showed speed and finished well, losing to a horse that won his next out with winners. His figure dominates the field.  9-5-3

Race 6. I’m going to step away from the favorites and go with Street Strut here. She broke slowly last out, stayed wide and fought traffic until deep in the stretch. It is well known that Bill Mott is not great with first timers, but is better with horses that have had racing experience. The likely favorite, Llanita, has had plenty of opportunity to win. I’m willing to take a chance against her.  3-6-1

Race 7. No insight here. The likely favorites look to be the best. Cort may have a a tactical advantage here, but was run down last time by Lord of Love.    6-4-3

Race 8. This race looks open after the scratch of Transparent. I’ll still stick with his entrymate, Indycott. While Don Dulce is coming off a long layoff, he’s run well fresh previously and has the best numbers overall. I think the upset prospect is Derby Glass. He was claimed last out by Steve Asmussen and and figures to be competitive with this group.   1-5-4

Race 9. This race looks full of speed and promising horses. I’m leaning toward Lull and China Grove. The former won impressively in her debut, while the latter has looked good against stakes competition. 7-9-2-1

Race 10.  6-4-8

Late Pick 4

7th  6,4 primary, 3, 5 secondary

8th  1, 4, 5 primary, 6 secondary

9th  7, 9 primary, 1, 2, 5, 8 secondary

10th  4, 6, 8 primary, 7, 9, 11 secondary