Race 1 2-4-7 C=3 V=3
Congrats Kid has two races that are better than looked. He’s dropping from MSW down to the claiming ranks and has a good workout 10 days ago. Gets first Lasix. Lots of small positives. Little Schmo is another making a substantial drop today. Has some early foot and seems better suited for the dirt and the sprint distance. Ghostcatcher is another of the price droppers. Takes the blinkers off today and has a nice work in prep for this.
Race 2 7-5-8-6 C=1 V=2
This race was an awful mess to handicap. I finally settled on Threes Are Wild, a colt making his third start. He improved in his second start, puts blinkers on, and despite the very low key trainer he manages to attract Irad. Could prove the value. Colonel Jessup has shown a lot of early foot and may be tough to catch. The 13 starts are a negative, but given the long odds he’s worth a look. Mind Magic has been close at this level a few times and has the best lifetime figure in the field. Freudian Lights has three third place finishes in a row, and figures at this distance and price.
Race 3 2-1-5 C=2 V=2
Son of a General was claimed last out by Asmussen. Horse has a win and two seconds in four starts this year. His figures have been consistent and given he’s running at the same level as last out, he has to be a serious contender. Day of Fury finished second at OC $62K and drops down to the $32K level. Has had a good 2015 and DJ is always dangerous off the drop. Integrity was a winner last out at a slightly higher price and should be the one to catch.
Race 4 1A-3-4 C=2 V=3
Wheels Up Now goes for Albertrani who is not especially strong with first time runners, so you can excuse the first race. He adds Lasix for this start and has the best last race figure. Solid in the win slot. Condo King ran well in his first start last May and has been working well for the return. Stradavari goes first time for Pletcher/Velazquez and has a typical Pletcher pattern.
Race 5 6-2-7 C=1 V=1
Undertherainhas the best early foot in the field and has competitive figures. At 12-1 he’s worth consideration. On a Star has been in the money three of five starts this year and has the best last race figure. Ten Penny Princess is four of four in the money this year and ran a lifetime best last out.
Race 6 3-1-8 C=1 V=2
This race is highly competitive where even the longshots look like they have a chance. I went with Juba, a solid horse at this level. He’s been good throughout 2015 and has the best last race number. S’maverlous is on a four race win streak and can’t be discounted. Lucky Lotto fits at this level and has competitive numbers. At 15-1 he’s worth a second look.
Race 7 1-4-7-8 C=1 V=1
All Over Me won his last out and makes a pretty good drop today. He’s one of a number in here with chances. Hyman Roth has had a good 2015 and jumps up a bit in price, but his numbers say he’s right in the mix with this group. Frrogman Mel has done well at higher levels and drops down looking for the win. Cozy Kitten has had trouble winning but has been coming every race. Could be a stretch factor.
Race 8 7-5-1 C=2 V=3
My Super Nova is a bit of an enigma. She’s looked good in 2015 but hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle. Plus, her one race over the AQU dirt was poor. Still, in this group she has to be given a long look. Golden Gem is another that has looked competitive but can’t seem to find the winner’s circle. Violette has had a quiet AQU meet so far, puts the blinkers on and gets a good jockey switch to Castellano. She’s All Even just broke her maiden last out in a good time. Jumps up today but at 10-1 still has to be considered.
Race 9 2-3-9 C=1 V=2
Energy Policy ran well first time out, stretches out slightly today. Very much in the mix. Next Shares makes his fifth start. In his first two starts he finished second in a MSW and then second in a Grade 2. He led to the stretch in the Pilgrim but faded five lengths. In his next out he bobbled at the start and lost any real chance. With a clean start he should be right there at the wire. In Equality showed a little bit of speed last time and didn’t fade that badly. Gets Lasix today. Love the chances at 15-1 ML.