Happy Veterans Day and thanks to all who have served. Interesting AQU card.
Now that the track has come up sloppy and off the turf, fields have gotten shorter and the shape of races have changed. I’ll offer a couple of adjustments.
Race 1 2-7-6 C=2 V=2
No scratches in this race so I’ll leave the choices the same. Touchdown may get a bump up if the track favors speed.
In a race where it looks like a number of horses have legitimate chances, I’m starting with Jai Alai. Since breaking his maiden for $40K he’s been trying higher priced fields. He cuts way back today and given his recent figures he’s a competitor in here. Husion is 27% off the short layoff. Bird Prince is another dropping way down for this race. He’s got plenty of speed and may hold it better in a lower price field. Touchdown is an interesting runner that get first Lasix. He seems better adapted to a dirt sprint and at 12-1 I’ll be thinking about having him in my exotics.
Race 2 8-9-2-5 C=1 V=1
Seeking Alpha and Caldera were scratched and only five starters remain. Moss Code may move up on the wet track. Bluegrass Rye and Contradict stay in the top three.
Seeking Alpha has the best last race figure and drops from MSW down to the claiming ranks. Blugrass Rye improved in his last race when dropped down and a similar effort puts him right there. Caldera can be excused for his last and gets back to the grass today. Given he has fewer starts than most in here there is room for improvement. Contradict is a proce dropper with competitive figures.
Race 3 3-5-1 C=2 V=2
With Irish Whisper out I’d move Lady Gracenote up. Run a Dubb Dubb and Bileaps and Bounds remain in the top three.
Run a Dubb Dubb has had a pretty good 2015 and drops in price for this race. Her last two wins came at this level. Bileaps and Bounds has the top speed in the race, and while she’ll likely be challenged she’s 4 of 9 in the win column this year. Irish Whisper is 2 for 2 on the AQU dirt. She’s only had three starts this year and has figures that give her a good shot to win.
Race 4 2-7-1 (11) C=1 V=1
The top choices all stayed in the race, and Module drew in. Module definitely factors in the race.
Anna Creek ran well after breaking from the outside. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz are deadly with two year old turf fillies. Mo’s Ginny improved when moved to the turf and should have an impact today. Gold Medalist didn’t look sharp last out but has been freshened and moves to the turf where she’s better bred. If Module gets into the race she’s a definite contender.
Race 5 6-5-8 C= 1 V=1
Head Shrinker improved when moved from the turf to a dirt sprint. Stays at the right level for this run. Live Like Jay drops from MSW and gets first Lasix. Last race produced a lot of next out winners and the works should have her ready to go. Show Giant is a first timer with a good workout pattern. Gary Gullo is good with first time starters.
Race 6 8-2-6 C=1 V=2
The top choices stayed in and I’ll stick with them.
Geaux Mets comes from FL to challenge an OC$40K group. He’s a win type that rarely runs a bad race. Should have a good spot to run at the leader and off his best figures is competitive here. Bass River Road has been popular at the claim box lately. Will have to make sure to get a good spot from the rail but has the talent to be a factor here. Gypsum Johnny hasn’t been out of the money in four months but has had trouble cracking the winner’s circle. Was a winner last time he was on the AQU dirt.
Race 7 2-3-7-10 C=1 V=1
Of the top choices only Rontos New York stayed in this race. G R’s Giant moves up substantially in this field.
Dynamic Decision drops down in search of a win today. His lifetime numbers stand above the field, so his best effort should give him the win. Whippo comes off a solid maiden win and should be one of the front runners here. Britannia’s Most was over his head in the last two and drops to a much more likely level. Rontos New York has had trouble cracking the winner’s circle but could be useful in the verticals.
Race 8 2-1-6 C=2 V=2
Ocean Knight has been handled well by McLaughlin and seems ready for this step up. His last race was impressive and a repeat makes him the danger. Madefromlucky has three wins in seven tries this year and he’s been racing exclusively in graded stakes. Should find this easier group easier to handle. Tommy Macho is another coming out of graded stakes and should also benefit from catching an easier field.
Race 9 6-10-2 C=1 V=1
With Secure Access and Laquesta scratched and Tessio in the race, Tessio gets the nod with Scatoosh.
Secure Access improved when moved to the turf and has a last race figure that should dominate the field. Laquesta should be one of the horses close up early and she’s shown some courage in the stretch. Scatoosh improved when stretched out and a repeat performance puts her in the mix.