After going through the card, it’s not too good even for a Wednesday. Five races have seven or fewer betting interests, and that’s before scratches. But, I wasn’t too jazzed up about Sunday but it was a pretty good day overall.

Race 1      Betting Value – C       1-5-2

The David Jacobson entry of Italian Rules and Glickman was listed at 2-5 on the morning line. As expected, Glickman scratched. Italian Rules has been claimed five times in his last seven races.  At the recent SAR meet he won a $40K claimer and just missed a neck in a $25K starter allowance. So why is he dropping to $12,500, the lowest price he’s seen in his life? It certainly doesn’t look like a positive drop. The horse is a presser who probably sits just off his stablemate and will be hard to pass in the stretch. Buckeye Heart was claimed by Steve Klesaris after winning for $12,500 at BEL in July. He has the figures and the stretch courage to be a threat in this field. If the B Shanny of 2013 was running, he’d be a solid favorite. Unfortunately, the B Shanny of 2014 is not quite the same horse and the uninspiring combination of trainer Assaf Ronen and 7 pound bug Andre Worrie is no help. He’s another one freefalling through the claiming ranks but still should have enough left in the tank to be competitive.

Race 2      Betting Value – B      5-6-7-3

This 1 1/16 mile maiden claiming race does have some interesting possibilities. Inventor’s Gate at 12-1 ML generates the most curiosity for me. He actually ran a pretty decent race at BEL in May and then threw in the towel on a sloppy SAR track in a race that was originally scheduled on the turf. In that BEL race the early pace was slow enough that Peaceful Talk easily wired the field, but when the pace picked up Inventor’s Gate quickened nicely, running the last 5/16 in a pretty respectable 29 seconds. He also appears to be the best speed in a race devoid of true front runners. I think he’s better than those ML odds and maybe the best value in the race. Are We Not Men was snagged for $40K by John Toscano last out and he jumps him up a notch today. He’s a plodder cutting back in distance and he actually ran his best race at 1  1/16 miles. I’m not a big fan of plodders, and the pace in this field is not likely to help him, but there aren’t a lot of other horses that are more inspiring. Mambo At the Gym is cutting back from straight maidens to this $62,500 claimer. He ran a very nice race in his last at SAR, actually taking the lead entering the stretch and running very gamely while in tight at the rail. He’s got the best figures and if he is smart enough to track he’ll be in a nice spot turning for home. He’ll be the favorite and no surprise if he is there at the wire. Dividend caught all the worst of it in his last start and probably should have won the race. He’s another that is going to have to come from off the pace.

Race 3      Betting Value – C      5-2-4

Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is a horse that has done well at the $62,500 level. She’s 4 for 4 in the money at BEL, and her last race is probably the poorest on her sheet. In that race she was on the far outside, broke well, but never got a great spot. She swung widest of all around the turn, but clearly wasn’t going to close enough to win the race. If she reverts to her BEL form she is formidable. Evening Show is coming out of the same SAR race. She is solid at the level but does seem to hang a bit in the stretch. Given the odds difference, I’ll stick with Nuffsaid Nuffsaid. La Madrina is listed as the even money favorite for good reason. She’s 2 for 3 lifetime, including a NW1X last out at SAR. She’s fast enough and could have talent far beyond what she’s already shown. You certainly can’t leave her out of your pick 3/4/5 wagers.

Race 4      Betting Value – C      7-4-2

This is a typical mid-level, NW2L claimer. Eurokay by Me, Kate is a Ten, and My Four Rewards all have too many starts with only one win. I’m going to place Casey Roo on top. She was claimed two back by Richard Schosberg and he has been trying to move her from a sprinter to a router. She ran fairly well in a $50K starter allowance at SAR on a good turf course and came back to run out of steam in a fairly fast paced mile. She’s had a couple of good works since that one and while she might not inspire a tingly feeling, in this field she has a good chance. Barbara’s Smile is making her sixth career start and second after a claim by Gary Sciacca. She ran an even race in her first start at 1 1/16 miles and should improve today despite the slight rise in claiming price. Eddy’s Time is making her 13th career start, so she is approaching that professional NW2L point. She showed nice speed in her last at SAR, tiring in the stretch but running legitimate fractions. She likes the BEL turf and should be a major pace factor.

Race 5      Betting Value – B      1-4-3

With the other half of the entry scratched it is up to Bobby Jo to carry the banner for David Jacobson. She is riding a two race win streak and looks to have a great style for the distance. What the Front was claimed last out by Gary Contessa after dropping in claiming price to $40K. That was not a stirring performance – she really hasn’t had an eye-popping race in a while – but she is dropping to a level at which she can win and I think the 6 1/2F distance will suit her well. Her pace figure is the best in the field. She’s 12-1 on the ML and that is enough to encourage taking a chance. In Kelly’s Defense is making her BEL debut after spending her career at tracks like CD, IND, and FG. She last raced in July and switched barns to Chris Englehart, a trainer who has turned a lot of heads since his successful SAR meeting. Englehart had the horse at SAR but apparently didn’t find a spot to start her. The bad news is that there has been an 18 day gap since her last workout and that may leave the horse a little short in this race. When she is in condition she will press close to the front and finish well. Her ML is 5-1 and she should represent value at that price. Still…

Race 6      Betting Value – C      4-1-5

Boldlee had one start at SAR in which he broke slowly, pretty much lost contact with the pack, and closed impressively on the far outside to get third. A better break today and he has the talent to run by them all. Tiz a Chance is trained by Graham Motion and in his first day back from a suspension Irad Ortiz gets the mount. He has a nice series of workouts for this race. I’m not enamored with the one post, but Motion does very well with turf juveniles. One Eyed Ray is also coming out of the same SAR turf sprint as Boldlee. He broke well, set rapid fractions, and faded badly. With a more relaxed trip he could set the pace all the way around the track.

Race 7     Betting Value – B      7-5-1A

Big Town comes off a a claim by Rudy Rodriguez on a sloppy SAR track. Prior to that he was knocking around CD and OP  with moderate success. You have to throw out the last race in the slop – although he has a good wet track record, he never really got into that race. He’s a solid front runner and certainly fits at this class level. He hasn’t run a one turn race in quite a while, but he has enough speed to control the race. Groomedforvictory was another last out claim, this time for Micelle Nevin who was sizzling at SAR. He has the fastest  pace figure and a nice pressing style. Nevin gave the horse a nice series of workouts, the last a bullet five-furlong zip on the BEL main. Nevin is 28% with a positive ROI first off the claim, and the Nevin-Johnny V combination is hitting at 23%. It is interesting to note Nevin was the trainer of the horse earlier this year for a victory at a mile on the AQU inner dirt. Wealth to Me will take up the charge with the scratch of stablemate Joan’s Choice. He is another of the myriad claims by David Jacobson. He’s been claimed five times in his last seven races and rarely runs a clunker. He looks well placed, and definitely has the figures to be successful.

Race 8      Betting Value – B      2-3-4

Groupthink goes for trainer Chad Brown. He’s a perfect 6 for 6 in the money lifetime, and has been knocking at the door in his last two. In his last he went very wide around the turn but finished with good energy. He has a nice pressing style and is well suited for the seven furlong distance. Here Comes Tommy is one of those chronic seconditis horse, with 11 seconds and thirds and only one win in 29 starts. He has the figures and the talent to win, but his heart is suspect. Much higher probability of in the money than win finish. Broadway Bay is only making his third start . He broke his maiden in the mud at SAR at today’s distance in a somewhat slow time. Given the muddy track, the race may not be representative of the horse’s true ability and given the small number of starts improvement is reasonably likely.

Race 9      Betting Value – C      3-8-9

This group two year old state-bred maiden fillies is trying 5 1/2 furlongs, all but two for the first time. This race is wide open so watch the board. Take Issue is a Steve Assmussen trained filly with a long series of works coming up to this race. The breeding of the horse is ordinary  but Assmussen and Jose Ortiz are hitting at a 28% clip.  My Sweet Ellierose has one start at Timonium where she was bounced around at the start but still retained enough interest to finish third. Giant Hearted Lee is the other Rudy Rodriguez starter. Unlike her stablemate, she has no breaks in a long training schedule and should be ready for her debut. The scratch of Forestry’s Majesty is in Giant Hearted Lee‘s favor.

Another so-so weekend card from Belmont. Yesterday the best opportunities came early. Today I don’t have a real sense that there are a lot of big opportunities waiting, but here goes.

Race 1      Betting Value – B      5-4-2-6

Wild Kay is listed at 5-2 on the morning line and I’d be surprised if she didn’t go off at less than 2-1. She looks to be the controlling speed and that should count for a lot in this field. She won at this class two months ago, was claimed, and Patrick Quick unsuccessfully tried her in a couple of higher claiming races. He drops her to her best level today and she is 2 for 2 on the BEL main. Are there concerns? Sure. Quick is a 7% trainer from less than 100 starts in 2014. Andre Worrie is still riding with a 7 pound bug and has a 7% win rate. However, he does seem to be able to get a horse out of the gate, and in this race that could be all the difference. Inaflash is a hard-trying horse that suffers from a mild case of seconditis. She’s certainly no better than this class level and is another with low level connections. Still, she has good enough figures to be somewhere close by at the finish. Golden Rule is the X-Factor here. She has been racing primarily at Parx at slightly higher levels, and fits well in this spot. Allie Sweet has been running longer, but when she has been in condition she has figures very competitive with this field. Unfortunately in her last two she faded badly after contesting the lead for 3/4 of a mile. On a positive note, her last win came at Belmont in an off the turfer. She was claimed last out for $25K by low-profile, high win percentage trainer Diane Balsamo. If she wins this race at best it is a break-even proposition. Somewhat ambiguous, but scarier not to use than to use.

Race 2      Betting Value – C      4-8-1

Not a sterling field of $40K maidens going 6F on the turf. The scratch of Megsmelia changes the race quite a bit. Lochan changed barns over the summer after two unimpressive races at CD. She’s only had one turf start in four lifetime attempts, but it was enough to give me confidence she’ll be fine on the turf today. She drops from straight maidens, a powerful angle, and gets the services of Javier Castellano. Stay In Front has been on the sidelines for a year and changes hands from Chad Brown to Rudy Rodriguez. She ran a bang-up race in a straight maiden on the Saratoga turf at first asking, so she runs well fresh. If Rudy Rodriguez has her wound up she will be dangerous. Acrostic showed good speed in a turf race at BEL a year ago but has tailed off since. Still, with the lack of real speed in the race, I have to give her a slight chance.

Race 3      Betting Value – B      3-5-4

The first running of the Sky Beauty brings together a short field of five Montana Native has been a consistent sort and has been racing in Graded stakes company at Monmouth and Delaware. She is a pace pressing sort and in this field will probably go to the front and is a good bet to stay there. She’s been game in most of her races. Clement and Rosario have been a good combination. John Shirreffs brings Katie’s Garden to BEL off a win in an OC62 at Saratoga. She’s had plenty of time to recover from that effort and should be the one coming at Montana Native in the stretch. Toasting is at a bit of a disadvantage given her closing style here. If Castellano has her close enough in the stretch she could be dangerous. She has two wins from six starts at BEL.

Race 4      Betting Value – C      4-3-2

After 7 of 8 first or second in 2013, including a close second to superhorse Wise Dan in the BC Mile, Za Approval is still looking for his first victory of 2014. On paper he is the classiest horse in the field but has been burning money this year. It’s not a particularly strong field, and 8-5 on this horse wouldn’t make him much of a value proposition. Right beside him in the starting gate will be Pass the Dice. This lightly raced 6 year-old seems to have found some vigor in 2014 with a third in a Graded stakes and a second in a restricted stakes in his last. While he hasn’t been on the grass in a while, he does have two wins from three turf starts. His figures have been consistently strong this year and he is in a good spot to get his first win of 2014. Fredricksburg has shown good speed in his last two starts at 1 1/16 miles, including a very game second in the Oceanport at MTH. His front running style merits respect and his figures make him competitive.

Race 5      Betting Value – C      3-5-2-7

Clark Kent ran a super race (couldn’t resist) first out at FG, and top horseman Larry Jones brings him back after a five month layoff. In that FG race he was a favorite who ran into a buzzsaw in Embellishing  Bob, but today he may not have such stiff competition. He should break on top and take command of the race in the stretch. Smoke Police outran his odds when finishing 3/4 lengths behind Gentrify at SAR. That race should have done him a world of good, and the fact that Chad Brown bumps him up to straight maidens seems positive. Joel Rosario stays for the race. Jazz Player was a $450K yearling purchase and is making his debut for Wounded Warrior Stables and Gary Contessa. He has a nice series of works coming into this, including a three furlong blowout just three days ago. Contessa is not strong first time out, so we’ll see how wound up this horse is. Lord Cashel goes first time for Jimmy Jerkens who has been doing very well lately.

Race 6      Betting Value – C      7-1-9-2

Another 2 year-old maiden race and another contest between Pletcher, Brown and Rudy Rodriguez. Eskenformoney has had two starts already. She looked much better in her last at 1 1/16 miles and if she continues improving she looks like the winner. Doukas just missed a month ago at Saratoga and that experience should make her a real threat today. Breach of Duty is one of the endless string of Chad Brown first timers on the turf and she has had a very nice workout pattern for this race. Miss Chatelaine is a medium price horse that gets a look based on the success Clement has had with turf 2 year-olds.

Race 7      Betting Value – B      2-4-9

Leroy Jr. is a game speed horse who ran into the streaking Dowses Beach last out. He’s listed at even money in the program and I suspect you’d be lucky to get that. Obviously this is a horse with physical issues – he’s a 5 year-old with only five starts – but in his second off a year layoff he looks the strongest on paper. Latigo Trail had been knocking on the door since June, and finally broke his maiden last out at Saratoga. Brown and Luzzi have been a profitable combination in turf sprints. Should track Leroy Jr. and take a run at him in the stretch. Sunlover is a 1 for 14 horse that has been off since last December. He doesn’t look like a winner, but could catch a piece.

Race 8      Betting Value – B      3-9-1-4

This gets old, but Chad Brown starts Fila Primera in the other 2 year-old maiden filly race at a mile on the turf. This event looks a little more ambiguous than the 6th race, but it seems everything Brown puts on the track has to get a second look. Margaret Reay ran to her odds in her debut race at SAR. I watched the race replay and she clearly wasn’t ready for the start. The assistant starter was working hard to straighten her head, but she was having none of it. She showed interest for a while and then just backed up. It’s a bit of an angle but I’m willing to pay to find out if she has learned how to relax in the gate and run her race. At 10-1 ML she should pay a rewarding price. Birkenhead looked like she was in for experience in her maiden at SAR. Tom Durkin noted in his call she was hard to handle, but David Donk is a good enough trainer to get the horse straightened out. Given her breeding she should prefer the mile distance to the sprint. Class Will Tell is the other first timer who looks well-intentioned.

Race 9      Betting Value – B      5-6-1-4

Dyker Beach is coming off an impressive win at Saratoga a month ago. He had been having a lot of trouble finding the winner’s circle, and perhaps the feeling of finishing in front will stick with him for another race. His main competition should come from Waco, a 3 year-old with plenty of early foot and a hidden good race over the BEL surface. Crafty Dreamer is one of those horses that occasionally moves over from optional claimers to take a shot in a NW1X. He’s 10 of 13 in the money and should like the 7 furlong distance. Coolusive takes the blinkers off and gets a good jockey switch to Johnny V.

Race 10      Betting Value – C      11-2-3-10

This mess of a state-bred maiden race at a mile on the turf features 10 first time starters, and yes, one of them is trained by Chad Brown. Detail breaks from the far outside, a definite disadvantage, but if she gets out and runs to her breeding, she’s the main threat. Courageisamajority goes for Graham Motion and has been working well for her debut . Call me crazy, but Loon River looks like the most solid of the two horses with a start over the track. She should improve with the stretch out. Bad Girl Phase is the other 2nd time starter. In her debut she was bumped hard at the break and really lost all chance.

I’m back and raring to go. The Saturday card at Belmont is not a great weekend card. There are a few short fields, and a few really poor fields. I’m doing a 10 race analysis and giving each race an A, B or C in terms of betting potential. “A” races are those where I think the selections are solid and the betting opportunities represent value. “C” races are those where either there is a lot of ambiguity or the betting value is low. “B” is somewhere between.

Race 1      Betting Value – C

I’m not seeing a lot of ambiguity in this race, but I’m not seeing great value either. The first two choices look like the highest probability winners. My Place was claimed by David Jacobson at Saratoga and he ran her back in a $35K NW3 race at 7F. The drop in claiming price is concerning, but the switch from Worrie to Castellano should improve the horse. Island Candy won a $50K starter allowance last out and is another one with a head scratching drop in price. If she runs back to any of her last three she should be dueling to the wire. Of the other starters, perhaps South Sound can be given a second look. She has a little bit a speed and may push Island Candy.

2-4-7

Race 2      Betting Value – C

Artemus Paperboy was claimed by David Jacobson last out. That race was a bit of a clunker, but he does get some time off and a strong series of works to get ready for this race. Americas Guest opened his career in the slop at SAR, showed speed and got swallowed by the field in the stretch. Manny Franco subs for the suspended Irad Ortiz. Perhaps a faster track will be the tonic for the horse. Hi Speed Chase is coming off a nine month layoff and trainer Gary Sciacca is not well known as a layoff trainer. He showed some speed as a juvenile and was beaten by some decent runners, including Commanding Curve. I’m leaning toward giving him a race. Dickens is another layoff horse dropping from straight maidens to claimers. He has a shot at a minor award. Boss Daddy was claimed off his maiden run by Adele Adsit. She has been training well with a limited stable and wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

3-6-7

Race 3      Betting Value – C

It’s my last day here for two weeks. I’ll be in Germany and Spain on “business.” I will miss the last two weeks of Saratoga, but I hope I’ll be able to weigh in on some of the big races and events.

Monday’s card is uninspiring at first glance, but there are a couple of very vulnerable favorites.

RACE 7

• 2 Alysaro broke his maiden on the inner dirt at AQU for $20K this March. He’s raced twice at BEL since then and once in the SAR mud. He’s shown excellent tracking ability and should like the 6F distance. He looks a little fainthearted, but could get a really nice spot on the rail. Not impossible here.
• 4 Captain Toews is a playback for me. I think you can discount his last race in the mud. Until that point he was very competitive in fields like this. His low profile connections take the blinkers off today. While I think he is a step slower than a few in here, he will be long odds in a short field with a vulnerable favorite.
• 6 DJ Manlove is going first out in the Bruce Levine stable. This horse has shown high early speed and has a steady series of good works for his 2014 debut. I doubt he’ll be 6-1 at post time. I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if he wires this field. Top choice.
• 7 Dyker Beach is the fastest horse in the race. He also has the dreaded record of 1 for 18 with 9 place finishes. I think he has to be a bet against in the win slot, but it would be a shock if he wasn’t one of the top three.

RACE 8

• 1 Red Vine is a presser that will have to get out of the gate quickly today. He’s been a consistent horse with 9 of 10 lifetime in the money. His figures are competitive and combination of Clement and Rosario has always been solid.
• 3 Inchcape has two seconds over the SAR turf. He’s been knocking on the door all year and certainly has the style and the numbers to beat this field. He needs to prove he can beat this class and maybe today will be the day.
• 9 Pyrite Mountain is the obligatory Todd Pletcher trainee. He lost last out by the slimmest of margins and returns today to the same conditions. That was his first out in nine months, and given the maximum effort, a bounce is a distinct possibility. That was by far his best lifetime figure.  Perhaps the month off and the two maintenance works point toward him remaining in condition, but he is not an unbeatable favorite in this race.
• 10 Side Road is making his 2014 debut for Kieran McLaughlin. He was a respected 3YO, starting in the Gotham. Something went wrong in that race because he spent the rest of the year on the sidelines. He came back as a turf horse, winning an OC25K at GP and then running in a series of graded and restricted stakes. His figures are very competitive. His last off a long layoff was just fair, but McLaughlin and Ortiz have been a deadly combination for a while. Top choice.

RACE 9

• 2 Zucchini Flower has gone up against graded company last out, including getting beat for show by Ambusher by a length. The switch from McCarthy, a fine rider on lesser tracks but out of his league in SAR, to Irad Ortiz is monumental and the combination of Motion and Ortiz has been burning up SAR. She’s 7-2 on the ML and I think she’ll go off about that. On her best day she is as good as anyone in the field. Top choice.
• 4 South Andros has been having a good 2014 and low profile trainer Rodney Jenkins brings her in for a try with the big boys. Xavier Perez has been riding primarily at Monmouth, with moderate success. She is 10-1 on the ML, and given her connections and apparently cheaper previous competition, she’ll be a big price at post time.
• 5 Natalie Victoria should be the post time favorite for Michelle Nevin. Not that she doesn’t deserve the action, but Michelle Nevin is about as hot right now as you could ask a trainer to be. I think the horse is vulnerable, but the Nevin factor and her ability to wire fields are still dangerous. Not sure anyone can go with her.
• 6 Ambusher was stuck in the mud last out but before that showed promise against graded fillies. She’ll have a lot to do in the lane to catch the 5, but wouldn’t be a surprise in the money.

RACE 10

• 2 Callans Candy tried 5 1/2 on the SAR turf a month ago, finishing up the track after showing a little speed. There are a couple of interesting angles here. First, Bill Mott simply does not win with first timers. His record is abominable, and it shows in the 25-1 odds the horse went off at. Second, he gets first Lasix. Perhaps he bled in that race and perhaps he didn’t, but the Lasix won’t hurt. If you are playing strictly on numbers, this horse has no chance. On the other hand, if you believe Mott had a plan and today it all comes together, you’ve got a potential double digit longshot here.
• 4 Hurricane Turn is the listed ML favorite. In a devilishly clever move, Stony Brook stables decided Chad Brown was no longer up to the task of training the horse and moved him over to Todd Pletcher. Brown tried to put him on the turf last out but was rained off. He almost won that race leading until close to the wire. He’s well enough bred for the turf, although this isn’t Pletcher’s main move. Wouldn’t be a shock, but I’m not leaning hard in his direction.
• 5 Summation Time has one turf race at MTH  where he was steadied out of the gate but made a big move to finish second a neck. The Clement-Ortiz combo makes the horse a legitimate threat. The downside – why is he dropping the horse into a maiden claimer from a MSW? You can’t ignore the horse, but there are questions.
• 6 Loves Last Chance is a six start maiden that has been close in a few races. Graham Motion finally drops the horse into a maiden claimer and that may be enough to get him over the hump
• 10 Better Man is first on the turf for low profile trainer Patrick Reynolds. I’m inclined to give him a look but the outside post may be a bit too much to overcome.  Still, the numbers suggest he could be in the mix.

It was a hard luck sequence for me in the late pick-4 yesterday. After crushing a few of the earlier races, and for the first time in decades having a DQ go my way, I had mixed luck in the last 4. Of course, I would have been a lot happier if the 3 had won the 11th, but today is another day.

RACE 8

• 2 Making Havoc gets a nod from me for pretty much one reason – the change to the hot Phil Serpe barn. She was ultra competitive at Gulfstream, Parx, and Pimlico and didn’t embarrass herself at BEL when she was taken for $62K. She had a big break in her works from June 29 to July 31. I’d like to think Serpe was taking care of so nagging injuries and and giving her a much needed rest – she already has 6 starts this year. I just don’t think you can leave her off the tickets.
• 6 Evening Show takes the blinkers off today in her second start for Steve Klesaris. After winning three in a row she developed a serious case of seconditis. This is not an overwhelmingly strong field, but her winning likely depends on getting the right ride from Rosario. Much the fastest, but not a sure thing. Still the top choice.
• 9 Misszippityslewda could be the main pacesetter, meaning the outside post shouldn’t be much on an issue. She is another one with a tendency not to pass that last horse in the stretch. 6F should be her best distance and lately Junior Alvarado has been riding speed horses very well.
• 10 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has been knocking around this level her last two. She’s in the mix based on speed, but if you need a convincer I have two words – Michelle Nevin. Until she cools off I’m not leaving anything she puts on the track off my tickets.

RACE 9

• 1 Alpha is a horse that will be overbet. Yes he’s been racing nothing but graded stakes for the past two years. Yes, he is a Grade 1 winner in a race with the interesting condition that it is limited to non-graded winners. Yes, Johnny V gets aboard. Yes, he seems to have good speed from the 1 post. Yes, you can throw out his last on the turf. But even with that, I think he is up against it and mostly a play against.
• 3 Farhaan is a lightly raced 5 YO also coming from the stable of Kieran McLaughlin. On paper he looks a cut below these, but his pace figures do give reason for opimism. The main question is, why did McLaughlin enter him when he had the more accomplished Alpha? Sure they are from different owners, but I have to believe the trainer would not enter this horse if he was not cranked and ready, and he didn’t believe he had a legitimate chance to win. He wouldn’t be a comfortable win bet for me, but he deserves to be on the tickets.
• 4 Easter Gift had no chance at all in the Monmouth Cup. The short comment belies the horrible trip she got. It also understates that speed killed in that race, with the first three horses down the backstretch were the first three horses across the wire. I’ll just say it. Joe Bravo stinks at SAR. He stinks at MTH too if you watch that race. He’s putting his horses in bad spots, he’s fighting them around the track. The change to Rosario is a big upgrade. Top choice.
• 6 Stormin Monarcho fits the race and the distance well. He wouldn’t be a a big surprise. He was clearly way over his head in the Suburban, but did contest the pace for a bit. The switch from the overmatched Corey Lanerie to Cornelio Velasquez should help.

RACE 10

• 4 Main Sequence won the United Nations in his first start in the U.S. His main issue is that he is a head case in the gate. He broke slowly in his last, dwelt in the race before that one. He’s probably the best horse in the race but not a sure thing.
• 5 Imagining seems to be a Grade 1 horse. He likes the SAR turf and has run well this year. He has speed to use, but can be versatile. Hard to leave him off the tickets.
• 7 Twilight Eclipse almost wired the U.N. field and should have no problem staying this distance. Top choice in this field.

RACE 11

• 2 Jimmy Fillpot has two races on the turf and ran relatively evenly in both. He’s been off since Jun 21 but has a nice steady workout tab between.
• 3 Breakeven Analysis has been off since November for Chad Brown. He’s had a deep closing style, which I don’t generally prefer, but he has great figures as a 2YO, which I do like alot. He has a perfectly steady work pattern and Castellano stays aboard. Have to be on the tickets.
• 9 Hines has good numbers, Todd Pletcher and Johnny V. He’s had plenty of shots to win, although his last against NW1X runners probably wasn’t a real win opportunity. TAP and Velasquez just gets on my tickets somehow.
• 10 Day Six will be the top pick. I love her last where she led most of the way and stayed fairly strong in the stretch. The cutback in distance won’t hurt and the switch back to Maragh has to be a godsend for his backers. Nice workout pattern and Barclay Tagg doesn’t hurt.

This pick-4 includes the Alabama, one of the four races that once defined the Saratoga season. I’ve found on big days races tend to be formful, but just like Moreno at the Whitney, upsets occur. We have two dirt races and two turf races in this sequence.

RACE 8

• 1 Mosler is sure to get some action. He wired a field at a mile at Belmont last September. From the 1 post he’ll have to gun for the lead but there aren’t many horses he’ll have to duel with. His figure as a 2 year-old is about as good as anything else in the race. Bill Mott is almost 20% off the bench and I believe the drop to 7F is right up his alley.
• 4 Scam goes for trainer Shug McGaughey. In has last start at SAR the comment says “off beat slow.” I think that is a little understated. He looked to me like he got out of the gate but something happened and the jockey pulled back to last. Then around the turn Joe Bravo managed to get stuck behind a horse and checked slightly. I don’t think anyone was beating the Big Beast that day, but he showed great courage and talent first out off a long layoff, closing past horses to finish 3rd. The 7F distance should be right to his liking. If he breaks he is a serious win contender.
• 5 Surfing U S A was the show horse in the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s been off since March, but has run well fresh twice. He has a nice series of works at SAR and competitive pace numbers. He will most likely show a pressing style, sitting off the flank of Mosler. He may have the most potential talent in the field.
• 10 Financial Mogul shows nothing but graded stakes runs since he broke his maiden last year at SAR. I really dislike seeing a horse handled this way. It is obvious he is not a graded stakes runner, and it took Violette all of 2014 to figure it out. The problem is that the horse has has seen nothing but rumps on his drives to the wire, and this can have an effect on his interest in winning. His running lines are full of real Grade 1 horses – Bayern, Social Inclusion, Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Coup de Grace. This is the easiest field he’s met in a year and if he has it in him to win, today is the day.

RACE 9

• 2 Orino wired a field last year at the mile distance on the SAR turf, although he was ultimately DQ’d and placed second. He hasn’t come out quite as eager to go to the front this year, but from the 1 post he will have to break sharply to get position. Trainer James Bond has given him a nice series of works, including two bullets in his last two drills. Rajiv Maragh gets the mount. He’ll be my top choice.
• 3 Hurry Up Alan shows up in the barn of David Jacobson after spending his career at Woodbine. Jacobson is 25% first time from a large sample, so that alone makes him a contender. The down sides are that it isn’t clear if the mile is his best distance and he has not shown a great amount of interest in leading at the wire this year. Still, his pace number say he is a consistent runner, plenty competitive with these.
• 5 Petrocelli is a speedball with only four lifetime turf starts. His last time on the turf was last November, and he finished a close up third at the mile distance. He looks a little cheaper than some of the other contenders, but speed is always dangerous. He’ll find a spot on a few tickets.
• 6 Sun Worshipper has been closing in turf sprints and perhaps the added distance will be more to his liking. He’s probably at the right class level, and although I won’t say this often, the switch to Alex Solis is an upgrade.
• 7 Mobridge intrigues me slightly. His pace figures put him a few steps behind some of the other runners, but he has a few things going for him. First, Mott has been having a good meet and he looks geared up for a big Alabama Day. Second, he ran an off the pace style last race and won. He’s dropping in class today and if he runs back to that race could be there at the end. He’ll be on some of my “B” tickets.

RACE 10

• 1 Unbridled Forever will be on some tickets, but is not by any means a key here. Since winning the Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds in January, she’s run into Untapable twice, Sweet Reason, and the favorite in this race, Stopchargingmaria. I think she’ll be overbet here. Her style is to come from off the pace, and from the one she may have to pull back farther than she might prefer in order to find a seam in the stretch.
• 5 Got Lucky is the otherTodd Pletcher trainee in here. She’s been close in a number of graded stakes. You have to throw out the effort in the Kentucky Oaks because she had a horrible beginning. Other than that she’s been first or second in each of her races. I think Pletcher would like nothing better than to sweep the top spots here.
• 8 Stopchargingmaria will be close to odds on at post time. Does she deserve it? I’m not sure. She’s been ducking Untapable all year, so she has to prove she belongs at the top of the division. She didn’t beat a lot in the CCA Oaks, but she doesn’t have a lot to beat here. She’s likely the best horse in the race, but I don’t think she is unbeatable (or Untapable).
• 9 Size at 5-1 will be the choice today. In a race without much pace (remember Moreno two weeks ago?) she looks like she could get to the front and relax. Her race in the Iowa Oaks was excellent, despite it being in the slop. Distance should not be an issue since she is a First Samurai out of a Pulpit mare. The hot Bill Mott trains, and Junior Alvarado (remember who rode Moreno) rides. Could be deja vu all over again.

RACE 11

• 1 Innovation Economy has one win in one start at this distance. In that race he dropped back to last, circled the field and exploded home. Unless he changes tactics, that’s exactly what he’ll have to do today. I’m not a big fan of plodders, but I am a big fan of Chad Brown. He has a big two year old figure, and if Brown has him ready to fire he could be dangerous.
• 3 Woodfield Springs has been a bit over his head lately. He’s another that likes to close, but I think he’ll be able to get a decent tracking position today. I think on the drop down, he gets a look.
• 4 Request has a win and a second from three lifetime races. His last race was at this distance and class level, and despite being wide, he closed well for second. Another with prospects.
• 9 Shaun’s Blessing ran two bang-up races at Churchill this spring. He picked up the always capable Johnny V. I like his pressing style, and his pace numbers are competitive. I’ll make him the top choice.

It is a much more competitive day today than yesterday. There are a couple of false favorites so the pick-4 may wind up paying something.

RACE 7

• 1 Trecastle is a three start maiden that is very well suited to longer races on the turf. The negative for me is his plodding style. Plodders have to read the pace perfectly and make their sustained move at the right time. He certainly has the talent. The question is, is he talented enough to run past the entire field, especially considering the pace is not likely to be killing. He is a must use on the ticket, but not a single.
• 3 Atherton led most of the way in a mile and a half turfer at Delaware. Many handicappers think the longer the race, the more likely a closer will win, but it is in fact the opposite. A front runner that can run at an easy pace has all kinds of advantage in a long race. The race at Delaware was useful for Atherton. The comment, gave way grudgingly, speaks to his distance ability. It was an 11 horse field, and he only finished two and a quarter lengths out of it. He looks live, although suggesting the change to Luis Saez might be positive is a little bit of a stretch.
• 8 Decisive Edge is already starting to show signs of the dreaded seconditis. He has plenty of front running ability, plenty of ability to stay the distance, a shrewd trainer, and a nice series of works since his last. He’ll be the favorite and if he has learned that close but no cigar is unacceptable he should be the winner. Another one where you are betting everything will go right for the horse.
• 10 Vasco de Gama has one mile race on the Monmouth turf and he managed to close past most of the field. There are times at Saratoga when you think Pletcher could enter Mr. Ed and you’d have to back him. He gets a switch from Bravo to Johnny V and he has three useful 4F drills at Monmouth. The deep closing style is a concern, but I’ll make him the top choice.

RACE 8

• 1 Parting Kiss is one of those shippers from a high percentage trainer that have to be respected when they bring a horse in. I’d be a little more excited if he looked for a local rider. She’s got a little bit of speed and may surprise the locals.
• 3 Tabreed comes over from a Grade 3 at Arlington. Clement is having a good season at SAR and the horse has a third over the SAR turf. She’s a better horse than she was last year and should improve more in her second out of 2014. I’d like to have seen a gate work or two given she seems to have trouble getting out of the gate, so the race may turn on her start. If she gets out she’s dangerous.
• 5 Maximova is the other Clement trainee. She’s just come off an OC on the turf where she showed some willingness to close. I’m betting Clement believes the horse is ready for a higher level of competition. She has good tactical speed and should have no problem with the distance. Top choice for me.
• 6 Red Hot Tweet is included on the “if you take the 5 you have to take the 6” theory. She’s coming out of the same race and was only a quarter length behind Maximova. Graham Motion has been putting nothing but live runners on the track and this figures to be one of them.

RACE 9

• 3 Weekend Hideaway has plenty of early foot and yesterday the track seemed to favor those who could get out in front early. He’s much better running in Statebred races and should figure in the outcome today.
• 4 Quick Money is trained by Michelle Nevin who seems to be having a career meet at SAR. He’s been running with slightly cheaper but has the pace figures to compete with these. He’ll be my longshot opportunity.
• 5 Moonlight Song has the most consistent figures in the race. He faded to 4th in the 7F Belmont Sprint, but this field is a little less talented than that one was. I’ll make him the top choice.
• 6 Big Business is a high win percentage type and has not run a bad race for quite a while. He will come from off the pace in this race so it will be critical for Johnny V to put him in a good spot early. It’s going to be hard to keep him out of the top three.
• 7 Amberjack is an interesting longshot. He only has one start this year, but it was a fast race. The dangerous Mike Hushion trains and Irad Ortiz gets the mount. This will be a big test, but I think you have to pay to see if he’s up to it.

RACE 10

Let’s start with the one-for-too-many horses. 2 , 3 and 6 are 1 for 16, 9 is 1 for 19. Despite the fact that the 9 is likely to eat money again, we are going to throw them out of the win spot.

• 4 Barbara’s Smile was claimed last out by Gary Sciacca. She won at first asking on the Belmont turf, but then hit a rough patch. Sciacca has given her a nice series of works for this start and has actually jumped her in price from her last. She’s listed at 12-1 on the morning line but I’m going to make her the top choice.
• 8 Sultry Warrior raced on a muddy SAR surface last out so that race is a pitch. Prior to that she was getting clobbered by NW1X fillies. She only has eight starts, but she’s really going to have to show a lot more to win this race. Fortunately the field is pretty weak and if Sciacca has her wound up, she could contend for the win. She gets a nod more based on how bad the field is than how good she is.
• 12 Simple Touch goes for Wesley Ward after an 8 month layoff. She won at first asking, so there is every reason to expect her to run well fresh. Simple Touch has pace numbers as fast as anyone, and as you know I think any horse coming from 2 to 3 that has superior pace figures to the field is a high percentage play. I have two things that keep me from making her top choice. One is the outside post which could be a big disadvantage. Two is the rider switch to the tenuous Abel Lezcano. I’ll use her, but I wouldn’t be surprised to be griping about the ride at the end.

The rain is gone, the track is listed as good and they are back on the turf.

RACE 7

• 3 Casey Roo was claimed two back by Richard Shosberg who wheeled her back at a higher class level where she ran a fairly even race. I don’t like the fact she has no workouts between that race and today, but Johnny V stays and that is a good sign.  The comment line is a little misleading. She rode the rail around the track and when it was time to move she was generally boxed in. Johnny V make no attempt to punish her through the stretch and if she goes off at her ML 5-1 she would be fair win odds.
• 4 Al’s Gal is the ML second choice but will be my choice today. She was just claimed last out by Bruce Levine who does well off the claim but is not known as a turf trainer. Al’s Gal only has 5 previous starts and gets a chance to improve today.
• 6 Wine Burglar was a little unlucky last out. She kept Lonely Teardrops at bay through the stretch but Ear D’Rhythm flew from out of nowhere to get the win. No reason to expect she won’t run the same race this time.

RACE 8

• 1 Sense of Peace found himself on the lead when Lucci the Lion suddenly backed out of the race. He had a clear lead in the stretch but by the time they hit the wire he was exhausted. I don’t think he gets a break today with the other speedsters in the race. Should be battling up front, questionable if he will be around for the photo.
• 2 Take Down Two was beaten in his last by Photon, a horse who seems to have an extra gear in the stretch. This 9 year old gelding has been a solid racehorse with 103 lifetime starts. Is he fast enough? He is on his best day. Is today that day? There is enough speed for him to use his closing kick so it isn’t impossible.
• 4 Immortal Eyes has been with much better in the not too distant past. He was a win machine in 2013, but since David Jacobson has had the horse he hasn’t been quite the same. He has plenty of speed, but it is unlikely he’ll get the lead. He can come from just off the pace, but given the heartlessness he’s shown in the stretch, I’m on the fence. Still, he will be good odds and this should be his top effort.
• 5 Broad Rule is another with back class. He’s more of a closer and that should be a preferred running style in this race. His last wasn’t that bad and he takes a big drop today. He will be my longshot top choice.
• 6 Photon is a hard horse to leave out given he’s beaten half this field in the last two months. He did, however, change barns after his last victory, and perhaps the change of scenery will break the streak. He won’t figure heavily on my tickets.

RACE 9

• 2 Caribean Beat finished almost four lengths behind Distorted Beauty in her last. She likes to come from well out of it and has actually run her best races on a turf with some moisture in it. She’s competitive and if she times her run right could be the one at the wire.
• 5 Distorted Beauty is making her fifth start and second on the Saratoga turf. She has improved her figure in each start and a small move forward today should give her the win. She’ll be close to odds on and deservedly so.
• 8 One Time Only will be the horse in front on the backstretch. She hasn’t run on the softened turf, so today will be a test to see how far she can take them. I think maybe a little underlayed at the 2-1 ML.

RACE 10

• 1 Tarpey’s Goal ran a monster at CD two races back. He’s been close at 6F before, but hasn’t won a race at that distance yet. Still, you can’t ignore him off the drop.
• 2 Real Estate Rich is the longshot pick. David Jacobson tried blinkers on his in his last two starts and that experiment flopped. He was taken last out by Patrick Quick, and the blinkers come off today. He’s 4 of 5 at the distance and has been competitive with much better. He’s probably the best of the late runners.
• 3 Regulus has plenty of speed to get himself into position and lately has been finishing well. He has a second on the Saratoga dirt and is fast enough to make an impact in the race.
• 8 The Big Deluxe has good early speed and just missed 3 weeks ago at 6.5F. He’s faced better, he’s beaten better but you have to wonder if even with the slight cutback in distance if he has enough courage to make it to the wire in front.

Not the greatest day of racing at the Spa, but there are certainly opportunities.

RACE 6

• 1 Alexndeed. This five start maiden started in MSW earlier this year and dropped to MC by the time he got to Belmont. His two maiden claimers showed significant improvement and although he takes a very slight rise in claiming price today, he is competitive in this field. He has shown speed before so the 1 post should pose no problem.
• 3 Smoke Police is a first time starter for Chad Brown who is 22% with a positive ROI with a large sampling of first timers. I don’t think the workout pattern is particularly strong so I will watch the board before including him in the pick-4.
• 5 Bird Now drops into a maiden claimer for the first time. He has a race over the surface and improving numbers, but he doesn’t look as fast as some of the others. A lesser pick for me in here.
• 7 Perfect Danger has a good last race in his first try with maiden claimers. He is fast and other than a tendency to lose stregth in the deep stretch looks like the controlling speed. If he is anywhere near his 12-1 ML he is a must use.

RACE 7

• 2 Thisdanseistaken is a turf sprint specialist but has been racing at lower levels. She is a pressing sort so she’ll have to stay close enough to kick by the 4 at the end, but she has an excellent record in turf sprints.
• 3 Chelsea Road has had success at 5.5F, is 2 for 3 on the turf and 1 for 1 at SAR.
• 4 Be My Love is a 5F specialist and is the fastest horse in the race. She  has two negatives – she’s been off since March and she’s been at lower class levels. It wouldn’t be a shock if she wired the field but she is no sure thing.

RACE 8

• 2 Sweet Acclaim has been knocking at the door since her trip to the U.S. She seems well suited for the mile distance, is graded stakes placed, and made a very nice closing run into a fairly slow early pace in the Lake George. Chad Brown switches to Joel Rosario today and that shouldn’t limit Sweet Acclaim’s chances.
• 3 Walk Close has done nothing wrong in three starts for Christophe Clement, plus she’s already beaten a couple of these. Will probably be the favorite and deservedly so.
• 5 Zinzay threw in a clunker in the Appalachian and may actually be better suited to sprints. She has a win over the SAR turf and runs well fresh. If she runs her best she could be part of the finish.
• 9 Hillhouse High fits with this group. She’s been first or second 5 of 6 starts on the turf inlcuding two nice runs at SAR. She looks well suited to the mile and has plenty of room for improvement.
• 11 Final Redemption has drawn into the race and must be given a look. The Graham Motion trainee ripped a field at 6F on the yielding Belmont turf and the step up shows a lot of confidence in her ability. She’ll have to work hard from the outside post, but has a lot of upside.

RACE 9

• 3 Bolt From the Blue has two mile turf starts and obviously needs a shorter distance and perhaps a cheaper class. He’s probably a little underlayed at 6-1 ML but I don’t think he’ll be used heavily in the picks.
• 6 Giant Slayer is one of the numerous drop down horses. He is lightly raced and did show a nice turn of foot in his last. Could win with just a little improvement.
• 7 Eternal Bull started out inauspiciously but has two useful races in a row, one of the SAR turf. The trainer/jockey combination has done well this year and Mike Hushion does well with this sort of drop down. He’s dropping into a maiden claimer and looks very strong in this spot.

Since I’m going to be at Monmouth on Sunday I thought I would take a look at some of those races. It initially has the look of a pick-4 that doesn’t have a lot of complexity with the possible exception of the 8th race.

RACE 8

The 8th is the featured Colleen Stakes for 2 year old fillies at 5 furlongs on the turf. There is a lot left to prove for this group and I think it is fair to say no filly really sticks out.

• 3 Momma’s Favorite has one race on a sloppy race track where she showed a lot of interest swinging wide into the stretch and closing past horses to finish second. There is every reason to expect she’ll take to the turf. Given that half the field is still without a win, it wouldn’t be a complete shock for someone to get her first win in this race. It certainly could be Momma’s Favorite.
• 5 Nicky’s Brown Miss opened her career at MTH but moved to BEL where she ran a good race on the turf. She is one of the many that has yet to break her maiden, but her last race really showed a lot of aptitude for the turf. If she shows a bit more speed and her closing enthusiasm she could break her maiden in this race. She is cross entered at Saratoga so may not go in this race.
• 6 Tulira’s Star was third in the Schuylerville on opening day at SAR. She was bumped at the break and was not able to show the speed she did in her maiden win. She gets her third new rider, but with a clean break she has a chance to be in the mix at the wire.
• 8 Nellinger has one maiden race on the turf at Saratoga and ran evenly around the track. She looks as good as any of the runners here and is another one that may break her maiden.

RACE 9

• 1 More Than a Party is one of two horses that look well above the rest of the field. She has a win at the distance at MTH two races back. You can excuse her last race since it was on the turf. If she runs to her figure she seems to be the winner.
• 2 P J’s Superego has four seconds in four races at MTH. She has the speed to duel More Than a Party and on her best day can win the race.

RACE 10

• 2 World Gone Wright has one race on the turf but it was a win over the MTH surface. She has three wins in five outings and has been competitive with better. She looks like she’ll have the lead and will be the one to catch.
• 4 Allaboutcaroline looks a little cheaper than some in this field, but she is a fast filly and she likes turf sprints. She looks like a must use on the pick-4.
• 7 Ju Ju  Eyeballs ran big in her last at MTH and may inherit the favorites role today. She’s 4 for 5 with a second on the turf, she has good figures and would be no surprise at all in the winner’s circle.
• 11 Well Lit has a win and two seconds on the MTH turf. She’s won two sprints in a row, although at Penn National. I’m not sure she is fast enough to get into the race early, and she has been racing with much less than she is facing today, but I think she has a chance to be in the money.

RACE 11

• 1 Writer’s Block is a four start maiden that showed some talent at the $10K level last out. He has a little bit of speed so should be able to establish position from the 1 post.
• 3 Soniko was claimed last out at this same $10K level. He was a solid favorite in his last race, and didn’t run poorly but didn’t really finish in a way that might justify his 5-2 ML. With only two races under his belt he has every chance to improve, but I wouldn’t make him a single.
• 5 Safari Samba was second in the same race in which Writer’s Block was third last out. It was a useful race, and with only five starts he is another that could improve enough to win the race. He should be the one battling with Soniko and if speed is holding up, it could run that way around the track.
• 8 Devil’s Match raced at the wrong distance last out but didn’t disgrace himself. He looks far better placed in a sprint, and although he hasn’t shown high early speed, his finishing numbers make him a contender.