It is a much more competitive day today than yesterday. There are a couple of false favorites so the pick-4 may wind up paying something.

RACE 7

• 1 Trecastle is a three start maiden that is very well suited to longer races on the turf. The negative for me is his plodding style. Plodders have to read the pace perfectly and make their sustained move at the right time. He certainly has the talent. The question is, is he talented enough to run past the entire field, especially considering the pace is not likely to be killing. He is a must use on the ticket, but not a single.
• 3 Atherton led most of the way in a mile and a half turfer at Delaware. Many handicappers think the longer the race, the more likely a closer will win, but it is in fact the opposite. A front runner that can run at an easy pace has all kinds of advantage in a long race. The race at Delaware was useful for Atherton. The comment, gave way grudgingly, speaks to his distance ability. It was an 11 horse field, and he only finished two and a quarter lengths out of it. He looks live, although suggesting the change to Luis Saez might be positive is a little bit of a stretch.
• 8 Decisive Edge is already starting to show signs of the dreaded seconditis. He has plenty of front running ability, plenty of ability to stay the distance, a shrewd trainer, and a nice series of works since his last. He’ll be the favorite and if he has learned that close but no cigar is unacceptable he should be the winner. Another one where you are betting everything will go right for the horse.
• 10 Vasco de Gama has one mile race on the Monmouth turf and he managed to close past most of the field. There are times at Saratoga when you think Pletcher could enter Mr. Ed and you’d have to back him. He gets a switch from Bravo to Johnny V and he has three useful 4F drills at Monmouth. The deep closing style is a concern, but I’ll make him the top choice.

RACE 8

• 1 Parting Kiss is one of those shippers from a high percentage trainer that have to be respected when they bring a horse in. I’d be a little more excited if he looked for a local rider. She’s got a little bit of speed and may surprise the locals.
• 3 Tabreed comes over from a Grade 3 at Arlington. Clement is having a good season at SAR and the horse has a third over the SAR turf. She’s a better horse than she was last year and should improve more in her second out of 2014. I’d like to have seen a gate work or two given she seems to have trouble getting out of the gate, so the race may turn on her start. If she gets out she’s dangerous.
• 5 Maximova is the other Clement trainee. She’s just come off an OC on the turf where she showed some willingness to close. I’m betting Clement believes the horse is ready for a higher level of competition. She has good tactical speed and should have no problem with the distance. Top choice for me.
• 6 Red Hot Tweet is included on the “if you take the 5 you have to take the 6” theory. She’s coming out of the same race and was only a quarter length behind Maximova. Graham Motion has been putting nothing but live runners on the track and this figures to be one of them.

RACE 9

• 3 Weekend Hideaway has plenty of early foot and yesterday the track seemed to favor those who could get out in front early. He’s much better running in Statebred races and should figure in the outcome today.
• 4 Quick Money is trained by Michelle Nevin who seems to be having a career meet at SAR. He’s been running with slightly cheaper but has the pace figures to compete with these. He’ll be my longshot opportunity.
• 5 Moonlight Song has the most consistent figures in the race. He faded to 4th in the 7F Belmont Sprint, but this field is a little less talented than that one was. I’ll make him the top choice.
• 6 Big Business is a high win percentage type and has not run a bad race for quite a while. He will come from off the pace in this race so it will be critical for Johnny V to put him in a good spot early. It’s going to be hard to keep him out of the top three.
• 7 Amberjack is an interesting longshot. He only has one start this year, but it was a fast race. The dangerous Mike Hushion trains and Irad Ortiz gets the mount. This will be a big test, but I think you have to pay to see if he’s up to it.

RACE 10

Let’s start with the one-for-too-many horses. 2 , 3 and 6 are 1 for 16, 9 is 1 for 19. Despite the fact that the 9 is likely to eat money again, we are going to throw them out of the win spot.

• 4 Barbara’s Smile was claimed last out by Gary Sciacca. She won at first asking on the Belmont turf, but then hit a rough patch. Sciacca has given her a nice series of works for this start and has actually jumped her in price from her last. She’s listed at 12-1 on the morning line but I’m going to make her the top choice.
• 8 Sultry Warrior raced on a muddy SAR surface last out so that race is a pitch. Prior to that she was getting clobbered by NW1X fillies. She only has eight starts, but she’s really going to have to show a lot more to win this race. Fortunately the field is pretty weak and if Sciacca has her wound up, she could contend for the win. She gets a nod more based on how bad the field is than how good she is.
• 12 Simple Touch goes for Wesley Ward after an 8 month layoff. She won at first asking, so there is every reason to expect her to run well fresh. Simple Touch has pace numbers as fast as anyone, and as you know I think any horse coming from 2 to 3 that has superior pace figures to the field is a high percentage play. I have two things that keep me from making her top choice. One is the outside post which could be a big disadvantage. Two is the rider switch to the tenuous Abel Lezcano. I’ll use her, but I wouldn’t be surprised to be griping about the ride at the end.