This is about as tough a day as I’ve seen in a while. I guarantee some upsets, but I’ll be damned if I am confident about predicting them. 

Race 1      6-10-4      C=2    V=2

In a tough maiden field Grand Sky gets a tepid nod. Seems to be on the improve and his last race figure looks strong. Tiz a Chance was off a year, came back to run a close third in his 2015 debut despite some trouble. Will probably go favorite. Memory Keeper has a high turf number and makes his turf debut today. Looks competitive off his last.

Race 2      6-4-9       C=2    V=2

Sudden Surprise comes off a couple of state-bred stakes wins. Stretches out another furlong and we’ll see if he can hold his speed all the way. Has never trailed a horse in three starts. Get Jets was right behind the top choice last out and may sweep by with another furlong to run. Governor Malibu is still a maiden but I like the way he’s run. Should enjoy the stretch out.

Race 3      9-5-1      C=2    V=2

Palace is obviously the horse to beat. He’s a multiple Grade 1 winner and was coming hard on top sprinter Rock Fall. Not 6/5 on my line, but hard to discount. Ostrolenka has the look of a horse that lost her way in the second half of the year, but I’m looking at one telling statistic – 4 for 4 at BEL. She doesn’t run well anywhere else, and at 15-1 I’ll be thinking about the upset. Loki’s Vengeance has been competitive all year and should have a good spot from the rail.

Race 4      9-5-8      C=2    V=2

La Verdad is the class of the field, but showed some vulnerability in the Gallant Bloom. On the other hand, she’s not been headed in her last five races, is 7 of 8 at BEL and 3 of 4 at the distance. Willet has been competitive with these sorts for a while, but has had trouble cracking the winner’s circle. In a race with 6 top speed horses, you have to look at a closer somewhere. Tricky Zippy is an improving 3 year old and has shown well with older. Not without chances.

Race 5      3-5-8      C=1    V=1

Saratoga Snacks has had a productive 2015.and likes the BEL dirt. Should be up in the front and has shown good heart when challenged. Royal Posse was a mild upset winner of the Shipman and in a field top heavy with speed he seems to be more tractable. Sciacca should have him at the top of his game. Given the presence of all the early/pressers, it wouldn’t be a surprise if some horse came flying from the back and the best prospect is Empire Dreams. He doesn’t always get there but in seven starts at BEL he’s been first or second six times.

Race 6      9-11-7      C=1    V=1

Ancient Secret was a $225K purchase off a $5K stud fee, so this horse must have looked impressive in the sales ring. Chad Brown is dynamite with turf fillies. Lulu’s Blues goes first time for Clement. Abbreviated workout pattern, but the works show some speed and I trust Clement will have her ready. Tough Temper has been prepping at Finger Lakes but the works look good. Englehart/Saez are winning at a 34% clip.

Race 7      6-3-2      C=2    V=2

It’s the usual suspects. Lubash has shown himself to be consistent and should appreciate the mile and a sixteenth more than the 9 furlongs he missed at last time. The horse that beat him, Kharafa, only has one bad race in the last two years, the Grade 3 Oceanport. No reason to expect he won’t be fighting for the win today. Iron Power was slightly subpar last out, but he’s a quality runner and may represent the overlay. Let the odds guide you here.

Race 8      10-2-1-11      C=1    V=2

Animal Appeal was a strong maiden winner last out and looks to move through the next condition.  That last race number would give her win number two. C d’Cat has been looking for her second win and has been about a close as she could get without winning. Gets back to her winning distance today. Miss Matzoball ran lights out in her 2015 debut. That was on a sloppy track and moving back to the turf should be in her favor. Improvement puts her in the mix. Full Tap flopped in the slop last out, but her one win came on this turf at this distance. In the mix.

Race 9      10-5-1      C=1    V=1

She’s All Ready ran respectably in the Frizette. Has a good turn of foot and is on the improve. Melodic comes off a state-bred stakes win and looks especially good considering the trouble she had last out. Trappe Play looked strong breaking her maiden but will have to break fast to maintain position.

Race 10      9-5-8      C=2    V=2

Wonder Gal had no chance in the Test but prior to that had been competitive in Grade 1’s and 2’s. The drop into an ungraded state-bred race should be a good tonic for her. TemperMint Patty is another with experience in open graded stakes. Consistent figures this year. I have to believe Repole and Pletcher knew what they were doing when they purchased her and this could be the break through race. Hot Stones was the Saratoga Dew  winner. Likes the BEL dirt.

Race 11      5-12-10      C=1    V=1

This is a better finishing race than we get most days, the Ticonderoga. Discreet Marq is a multiple graded stakes winner. She failed in the Yadoo, but she’s back her favored BEL turf and at her best tops this field. Old Harbor comes off a win in the Hettinger. Gets a nod because of her BEL record. The Tea Cups was a longshot winner of the Yadoo but failed as the favorite in the Hettinger. Englehart has done wonders with the horse this year and the story can continue today.

Yesterday was chalky, but today it looks like there are a lot of very competitive races.

Race 1      1A-7-3      C=1    V=2

Lazarus Project sold for four times the stud fee and has a good series of workouts. Orseno not known for debut or two year olds, but the competition here is not that stout. Voluntario was caught wide in his debut on the turf. He’s really far better bred for the dirt and Irad stays for the trip. Dr. Edgar looks well bred for the sprint and has a useful looking workout pattern.

Race 2      1-10-8      C=3    V=3

Riviere Du Loup has been trying to break through since coming to America. He’s as talented as any horse in the race, and will win sooner or later.  Schoolofhardrocks is the third horse coming out of the strong looking Sept 23 race. Second race off a four month layoff so potential to improve. Reach for Yield goes first off the claim for Jacobson. Horse has looked like he’s figured it out since he broke his maiden.

Race 3      2-1-3      C=1    V=2

Elated has had moderate success at BEL and the distance, but she’s starting to have the look of a horse that may have seconditis. Tough call. Regia Marina has four seconds and a third in six starts. Another that will have to overcome the seconitis. Pretty and Sweet looked good coming off a short layoff and seemed to take to the longer distance. Five starts, never out of the money.

Race 4      3-8-5      C=2    V=2

Bubbe Zena should prefer the sprint distance and has figures competitive with the field. Kellyesque drops down from MSW and hadn’t run that badly at the higher level. Looks well placed. Sing for Beauty should have all the front speed and will have to be caught. Another dropping from MSW.

Race 5      5-2-1      C=1    V=1

Upgrade has been close in every race he’s run in 2015. Figures have been ultra consistent and he looks ready for win number two of the year. U S Citizen actually looks best from a figure standpoint but it’s hard to know how well he’ll adapt to the turf at BEL. Can’t leave him out but go with caution. Saint Finian ran a big one at Saratoga and ran fair in his next at BEL. Competitive off his best.

Race 6      1-3-5      C=2    V=1

Privately Speaking flopped last out in the mud but her turf races are more impressive. Should be in the group up front. Chow Fun is 12-1 ML but she has run mid-pack with some better fields. Levine has good numbers with turf sprints and route to sprint. Looks live at the odds. Dot Product just won at $40K NW2 and takes a slight drop to $25K for the NW3 race. Has been competitive all year and matches well in this group.

Race 7      5-1-10      C=1    V=1

Dettifoss looked strong first time with winners and has been a new horse since Bruce Brown removed the hood. Should be a major player today. David Rocks will have to go out of the one post but he’s shown good ability to go to the front and stay to the end. Indiana Stones is a speedy sort with a win at BEL. Seems to be on the improve. And

Race 8      3-4-5      C=1    V=2

Request has been close at the longer distances and looks to be a good fit here. Nexrad is the closest thing there is to a pacesetter here and if he goes slow enough early he may steal the race. Grey Wizard has won at the distance and is 2 of 3 in the money at BEL.

Race 9      6-10-1-7      C=2    V=2

Laquesta just missed last out. Has improved in both her starts with good figures in both. Light the Sky was a $750K purchase. Lost as the favorite at DEL but showed respectably. Gets Johnny V for the trip. Amaze me Grace showed a lot of closing ability and unless she finds some speed today she’ll have to do it again in this race. Scatoosh takes the blinkers off today. Figures well at the distance.

One of the tough things about this part of the year is watching trainers start to move horses out of their stable. Two year olds that didn’t live up to their potential, three year olds that aren’t likely to be earners. It doesn’t mean they won’t win, but you have to discern the trainer’s intent.

Race 1      3-2-5      C=1    V=2

Dominic’s Smile won as the favorite last time out and takes a healthy step up. Hasn’t been the mile but the breeding suggests it shouldn’t be a problem. 3 for 3 at BEL and gets a switch to Castellano. The Catmancan looked good first time with winners but had a troubled trip last out. With a clean trip he’s a threat.

Race 2      5-8-6      C-1    V=1

Irish Cat goes second off the claoim for Linda Rice. Last out was on the slop and he’s back on the turf today. Last breeze was impressive. Stormy Invasion goes first time for George Weaver. The workouts suggest he should be part of the pace scenario and Manny Franco should help. Bold Runner has too many starts to get excited about in the win position, but he does show an interest in being close.

Race 3      2-4-6      C=3    V=3

Stay Tuned was grabbed last out by Linda Rice who drops him in half for this run. Workout looks like he’s ready to roll. Spartan Emperor showed good speed in dominating his maiden field. Should be the one to catch. Got Winged took a while to break his maiden. Should benefit if the track stays fast.

Race 4      2-7-5      C=3    V=2

ToBe Determined has the best lifetime figure in the group on the dirt. Should be the one to catch. Sonora had a bad start last out but prior to that was competitive. Should be part of the early pace scenario. Tachiello keeps dropping in search of a win. Has the figures, but hard to get overexcited about a 1 for 13 horse at 7/5 ML.

Race 5      1-5-8      C=1    V=1

Dauphine Russe was claimed two back by Mike Maker who jumped her up to a Grade 2. Should like the competition better here. Spectacular Me has won three of hier last six and wasn’t more than a neck behind in the others. Should be battling to the wire again. Vicki’s Dancer was grabbed last out by RuRod. More in the money finishes than wins, but is always competitive.

Race 6      5-9-6      C=1    V=2

Infinite Wisdom has been close in all his starts. Will be tough to beat if he duplicates his last two figures. Tale of Fancy has been improving and has figures nearly equal to the top choice. Liam’s Prince made a big improvement when moved to a turf route. At 10-1 this is the interesting horse.

Race 7      5-7-12      C=1    V=1

Mohican Chief goes for Brown/Castellano. Hasn’t run a bad one lifetime but is one of a few that has the talent in this field. My Friend Keith flopped in his first with winners but Mott should have him wound up for this event. Charity Reins makes the drop looking for the win. Throw out the last one and he’s right with the top contenders.

Race 8      4-7-3-6      C=1    V=1

Hope Cross is the Brown/Castellano entrant. Like the distance and BEL. Last race fig is tops. Tap It Out has been running consistently at Parx and MTH and has some good races at BEL. Alan Goldberg doesn’t bring many to NY but he’s a competent conditioner. My Sweet Girl has been competitive at this level for a while. May be one of the pacesetters. Striking Style is another that looks good enough to pick up the biggest piece. Watch the odds board.

Race 9     15- 5-8-4      C=1    V=2

Madam Maybry drew in off the AE list and looks to be the prime contender. Ran a close second last time out and this time puts the blinkers on and gets first Lasix. If she clears and gets a good spot, she’ll be the one to beat. D’bunnyphone has shown enough front speed to create an interest and takes the blinkers off today. At 10-1 I’ll be taking a long look. Queen’s Tiara is the Pletcher/Velasquez dropper. She had a troubled trip last out and certainly deserves to be given a long second look. Head Shrinker drops from  MSW to the claiming ranks and cuts back to a more preferred trip. Plenty of dirt breeding.

Race 1      3-6-4      C=2    V=2

Call Me Stoney should be the front speed. Big drop suggests he holds on. April Color was grabbed by the low profile Juan Ortiz who contracts with the ice cold Cornelio Velazquez for the ride. Should result in some nice odds. Royal Burgh is a 5 start horse that was well thought of earlier this year. He got picked up in a Todd Pletcher fire sale but should be good enough to compete here.

Race 2      5-7-6      C=3    V=3

High Ridge Road looked strong first time out and the combo of Brown/Ortiz is always dangerous. Que Chulo is not 20-1 in this race and has as good a chance as anyone. Sylish Quality has a strong set of works and Nicks is good first time out.

Race 3      2-3-1      C=1    V=1

Frazil can be excused for the race in the slop last time but the cutback in distance should make him the best chance. Distorted Dream is 5 of 8 second place and loves the distance. Storm Pursuit likes to win and is competitive with these.

Race 4      6-4-9      C=1    V=1

Weather Girl goes for Asmussen/Castellano. Improved when dropped to this level and has the best lifetime figure in this group. O K by Me improved markedly when moved to the turf and at the odds she’s worth a look. Hope’s Roar has been looking to break through for a while and looked best when dropped to seven furlongs.

Race 5      5-1-3      C=2    V=2

Just Got Out looks to be the fastest in the race. Not a lot of speed though to set her up. The Jacobson entry looks tough although lately he’s been scratching one or the other. Even with a scratch I’ll stick with the other. Bounty Pink has been running consistently and figures as close as anything else.

Race 6      6-5-2      C=3    V=3

Thamaan drops down to MCL after looking good first time out. Looks like perhaps Chad Brown has decided the horse doesn’t have a place in the stable. Brevard is probably better suited for today’s distance and has been improving with each start. Bluegrass Rye drops into MCL. Every bit as fast as the first two.

Race 7      2-3-7      C=3    V=2

Sister Sophia does not have a bad lifetime start. Her best should top this field. Sweetpollupurebred wasn’t that far behind the top choice last out. She’s done well at BEL and should adapt well to the distance. Run to Mama should be tracking the leaders and will get first run in the stretch.

Race 8      1-4-6      C=1    V=1

The Big Deluxe is better on the dirt and at his best dominates the field. Bond Vigilante was snatched by Bruce Levine and he’s a respectable 22% first off the claim. 3 of 5 at the distance and 1 of 2 at the distance. Gypsum Johnny has been with much better in the recent past and looks to be in good condition.

Race 9      11-3-8-12      C=2    V=2

Sauvignon looks to be the fastest in the race and the drop from MSW should make her tough to beat.  Fredaq drops from MSW and goes second off the layoff. Sugar Mags has run two nice seconds in a row and and seems to be improving. Miss Rickles was competitive with a few of these last out and no reason to expect a regression.

Numbers only today.

Race 1      9-1-4      C=1    V=2

Race 2      1-3-7      C=2    V=2

Race 3      4-3-5      C=1    V=2

Race 4      5-3-6      C=2    V=3

Race 5      1-3-8      C=2    V=2

Race 6      4-9-6      C=1    V=1

Race 7      1-9-7      C=2    V=2

Race 8      4-8-11-1      C=1    V=1

Race 9      2-3-7      C=3    V=2

Race 10   4-11-10      C=1    V=2

Race 1      2-6-5      C=2    V=3

Silver Ride broke his maiden at first asking but was not effective at the ALW NW1X level. HE dropped into this level last out and showed a lot of speed before fading to be a close fourth. Looks like he’s finally come to top condition again. Here Sir just broke his maiden by seven on a sloppy BEL track. May have simply been the wet track, but he’s had some competitive figures previously. Resourceful has been improving with each start. Has shown he can ship well and gets a nice switch to Irad.

Race 2      6-9-12      C=1    V=3

Pricedtoperfection showed a nice closing kick last out. The winner of that race came back to win next out. Chad Brown is lights out with second start maidens. Alto Belle showed good speed last out in an off the turf affair at today’s distance. The other top duo of Pletcher/Velasquez  make her a top threat. Girls Secret has a couple of thirds at this distance but will have to find position from the outside post.

Race 3      1-4-6      C=1    V=2

King Kranz ran a great race at BEL after showing his lack of experience in his first start. Although he is a maiden, I like what he showed last time. Ready Dancer was thrashed in the Champagne but this is a much easier spot. Should prefer the sprint. Full Salute has been in three stakes since graduating, winning one and finishing second twice. Coming from some lesser tracks, but looks like the real deal.

Race 4      11-6-10      C=1    V=2

This looks like a wide open race. Plainview has won a quarter of his races, including the last one at this distance. Seems to really like BEL. Almasty has three wins in seven starts this year. He faltered in the Better Talk Now but is well suited for the distance and the level. Sandy’z Slew stretches out today but has a second and third in two starts at the distance. Should be part of the front speed.

Race 5      4-1-8      C=1    V=2

In this race the horses with starts don’t stand out so we’ll look at Afleet Alfredo. He went for four times the stud fee and the workout pattern looks good. Playwright didn’t do much for Mott first out but he is not known for having horses ready to roll first out. Will need to show a lot more speed to not get buried on the rail. Charming Indy goes for Violette who is 17% with debuting maidens. If Schettino has him ready he will be dangerous.

Race 6      5-8-2      C=2    V=2

Coturnix was claimed last out by Abby Adsit. He bobbled at the start in that race but in the race previous ran a figure that would put him right there at the end. Midnight Notes is at the right level for his ability. He only has one win this year, but four seconds. Recent figures top the field. Tattenham was claimed by Mott last out and he doesn’t do that very often. No reason to expect he’s lost any condition since his last out.

Race 7      1-7-2      C=1    V=1

Jax Heritage has been looking to break through for a while and has been close a few times. Crescent Street is a little closer to having broken his maiden and since then he’s been competitive. His last race the jockey lost the whip but still finished with courage. Looks to be the best competition. His best races seem to be at the mile distance. Chasintheblues is another that has been knocking but can’t get in. His one win has come at BEL and the distance.

Race 8      9-3-7-11      C=2    V=2

S’maverlous was claimed last out by the shrew Michael Maker after winning his third in a row and fourth in his last six. Loves to win and has the figures to keep the streak alive. First Down was up against it on a muddy BEL dirt in the Allied Forces. Prior to that he came close to wiring a similar field. Alex the Terror won his first start for Toscano and is looking for two in a row. He’s been with better in the recent past and should be part of the front speed. Longfor the City has been on the improve and is worth a look at a price.

Race 9      10-6-13-1-12      C=1    V=2

I’ll give my analysis in order of preference. I think there are at least five horses with reasonable chances.

• Coffee Clique has pretty much been in nothing but graded stakes. She won the Just a Game at BEL last year. She may have lost half a step since last year, but in top shape she’s as dangerous as any horse in here.
• Granny’s Mc’s Kitten has a good pressing style and a hearty closing kick. She’s consistent and with Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz she’s got a much better chance than the 10-1 odds suggest.
• Lady Lara just missed in the Noble Damsel at BEL last out. She’s a legitimate graded horse and Mott is as sharp as there is with turfers. Another with a legitimate shot if she can overcome the far outside post.
• Stellar Path should be toward the front so the inside post should not work against her. She might be a step below some of the others in here, but could be a factor based on pace.
• Fauflier ships over from France. She’s been running in Group events competitively and gets Lasix today. Trainer and jockey made the trip with her.

Race 10   2-11-4-10      C=2    V=2

Light the Night stretches out a furlong after coming close in his first two starts. Tops the ones who have started figurewise. War of Ideas goes first time for the deadly combo of Brown/Ortiz. Well bred for the distance. Jan’s Reserve has three ok starts and takes the blinkers off today. Dilger is 2 of 5 with that move. Publishanditerate goes first time for McLaughlin who is 25% with first timers.

I’m going to try a new feature. I’m not sure how it will work and it may need some refinement, but I’m going to categorize races with regard to Competitiveness (C) and Value (V). C1  would represent a race where there are lots of contenders. V1 would represent a race where some price horses have good potential. C2 would be a race where the contenders stick out and there are some clear eliminations. V2 would represent average value. C3 would be a race where a few contenders stick out. V3 would represent a race where payoffs should not be high. I expect not to have too many V1 races.

Race 1      7-2-4      C=2    V=2

This is a difficult race for a couple of reasons. There are two Pletcher first-timers, a solid looking favorite, and some horses that have previously started and have excuses. Acapella lost as the favorite for Chad Brown and stretches out a furlong here. The two horses that beat her both came back to win. She was a $300K purchase, a good sum for a NY bred. Most likely will achieve favoritism. Flataway is the first-timer for Pletcher that gets Velasquez and that is usually a deadly combination. Well bred for the distance and the dirt. Sweet Peaches missed her break fist time out on the turf but did make a strong stretch move. She’s better bred for the dirt and at 15-1 may be the value in the race.

Race 2      7-5-4      C=1    V=2

Chelsea Road has been popular at the claiming box and winds up in John Parisella’s barn for this start. She’s been flipping back and forth between the dirt and the turf, but if you look at the record a quarter of her races have been on the fast dirt but half her wins, and a third at BEL earlier this year. There are some negatives – she hasn’t won this year – but given how many horses have a shot in here, I’ll look for some value. Talent N Passion is 2 for 2 this year and 2 for 3 at BEL. She’s proven at the distance and looks to be the clear frontrunner in this field. Irad jumps on for the ride. Bridgetta is another speedy sort and she gets a good switch to Castellano. She’s had good success at BEL and the distance, and is at the right price.

Race 3      5-9-2-4      C=2    V=2

Congress Park finally drops out of MSW to the claiming ranks. Her last start she wasn’t able to control the pace but the start before she missed wiring a field by a nose. She looks like the controlling speed today and has two figures that would top the field. Tiz Adore stumbled out of the gate first time out and lost all chance. She is very well bred for the distance and Shirreffs has a high percentage with second start maidens. One other interesting horse I’d point out is Classy Teacher. She came out first time against super turf filly Lady Eli and then ran a clunker on the dirt. She laid off a year, returning in the care of RuRod. He put her in a race that got washed off the turf where she showed a little interest early before fading. That race should give her some needed condition and the drop to the claiming level should help. Enthusiastic Gal has one turf sprint at Parx but shouldn’t have trouble with the stretch out. In her sprint she broke slowly and was wide, losing all chance. I like the switch to Lezcano, and while it’s a bit speculative the 6-1 odds make her worth a look.

Race 4      5-3-6      C=1    V=2

Lost in D Shuffle shifted to the Michelle Nevin barn for 2015. She’s had one dirt race, one synthetic race, and and one turf race. Nevin put front wraps on him last time, but doesn’t drop him out of the MSW ranks. Another that is a little speculative but interesting. Lightning Buzz may have gotten the top slot but I’m a little hesitant because of the switch to Luzzi. He’s got the speed and looked tough dueling all the way around the track last out. Henrik Rules goes first time for Carl Domino who is 20% first time with limited data. The last workout was a bright advertisement for the horse’s potential speed.

Race 5      10-8-9   C=1    V=2

There are only a couple of easy pitches in the 5th, hence the C1 rating. That being said, I’m going with Nevada Kid. He’s been off since March 2014, but has a sharp workout (an advertisement?) and has won before off the long layoff. Obviously this horse has some physical issues and Zito is practically giving the horse away, but I’m thinking Zito wants him to show well. Moneyinyourpocket was taken by DiPrima last out. a win at the $16,000 level. He fits at the level, and his figures are competitive with this group. Cease has not won a race in the last two years but has been in the money four of six starts this year. Figues suggest he has the ability, we’ll have to see if he has the heart.

Race 6      5-6-10       C=1    V=1

I like some price horses in this race, hence the V1 rating. We’ll start with Upstate Bird at 8-1 on the ML. She jumped up to the wrong distance and class last out, so you can throw that race out. Before that she had not finished any worse than fourth at this level.  Once again DJ dropping a horse is a pretty common move. Daisy Cutter hasn’t seen this price since her maiden voyage. She’s got two wins this year and has been consistently around the same figure. Race and Shine has been picking up minor checks for most of the year. Her last three races she’s run the same number and they have been her best of 2015. Potential for a breakthrough is there.

Race 7      5-1-6      C=3    V=3

Bellamy Way will be battling for favoritism with Uncle Sigh. Bellamy Way adds shades today after showing well in the Albany. He’s been consistent and fits the level perfectly. Uncle Sigh was a top three year old early last year and has looked good in his two state-bred starts this year. Colorado Grandslam is not without chances, especially given his controlling speed. It really looks like the winner has to come from one of these three.

Race 8      3-4-1      C=2    V=2

Crisolles has been competitive since coming to America and has been fairly unlucky not to have a win. Doesn’t dominate the field, but at his best should handle them. Queen’s Parade has been ambitiously placed since popping in an OC$25K. Adds blinkers today and given the improvement in the last few months has every right to be part of the finish. Evidently comes off a couple of Grade 3 races where she beat half the field. Decidedly easier task today.

Race 9      7-6-8      C=1    V=2

Tough race to close the card. Oscar Nominated has two good races at the MSW level and drops down to the claiming ranks today. Cyber Security goes first time for the combination of Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz. Table Talk is the intersting horse at 15-1 ML. He had the lead for a half in his last and was not that far out at the stretch call. Should show some improvement with the experience under his belt.

Since I’m posting this the night before picks are prior to scratches and assume races stay on the turf.

Race 1      2-1-4

Spearhead has not finished out of the money in 2015. He comes from Parx, but has raced with better there. Is particularly well bred for the distance. Captain Moss drops out of starter allowances into a NW2L event. He looks better at the sprint distance on the dirt. Hillbilly Style puts the blinkers on and gets a switch to Irad. Last couple of workouts look like he’s prepping for a sprint.

Race 2      4-1-5

Autumn Squall gets a positive switch to Castellano. She looks like the major speed and the one to catch. He best starts have been on the turf. Comet Sixty Two may be listed at 8/5 on the ML but the 1 for 16 record with 7 seconds makes me suspect. Turf figures look good and would be no surprise, but looks underlayed at the odds. Undertherain was claimed last out by Jason Serpe and he is 23% first after the claim. Should have first run at the leader.

Race 3      6-1A-4

Goodtimehadbyall was taken last out by Contessa after running a good third to Readtheprospectus. Should be in the mix at a decent price. Readtheprospectus goes for three in a row. Has a number of lifetime figures that would top this field. If he goes will be a legitimate favorite. Integrity makes a big drop and has shown good early speed against better. Throw out the last – he stumbled at the start and lost all chance. Has done well at BEL and at today’s distance.

Race 4      9-6-3

Insta Erma drops from MSW to the claiming ranks for Mott who generally does better giving horses some experience. Gets her first does of Lasix today. Should have no issue with the distance. Anna Creek didn’t break well last out but finished powerfully. Chad Brown does well with second time maidens and the works suggest she should be in top form. A better break and she may be the winner. Singmeasongbella stretches out on the drop down. Pletcher is 30% with MSW going to MCL.

Race 5      9-11-7

Native George is 20-1 ML but is much better than those odds. He ships over from FL where he was in MSW races. In his last start he had trouble at the break. Strategy is likely to send him from the outside. Lieutenant Dale is for sale today at $140K less than his purchase price. Figures are competitive with most of these in here. Banker’s Boss should be part of the early scrum and should benefit from the cutback to a mile.

Race 6      2-3-5

Hyper has been in nothing but graded stakes since coming back after a year and a half layoff.  He was placed in both a G1 and G3 and this is the easiest field he’s seen in quite a while. Sly Tom has a win and a third at BEL and has run his best races in his last three. Should have no problems with the 11 furlongs. Umgiyo flopped as the favorite last out. He’s a better horse than he showed in that race and I’m willing to give him another chance.

Race 7      1-9-10-6

Cuppa Joe should be the pacesetter and has done well at BEL and the distance. Drops down to his lowest price ever and  Irad gets back up. Comes the Dream is another tumbling down the price ladder. You can throw out his two mile races – this is a much better distance for him. Not Goliath comes off a state-bred stakes where he finished a close up fifth. Figures are competitive in this group. Elroi is a stone closer and if the race breaks down he has prospects.

Race 8      1-6-5-4

Joe Franklin looked good as a turf sprinter in his last and he’s 8 of 9 in the money with four wins lifetime. Tackles some of the big boys today but has the speed and the figures to surprise the field. Night Officer comes out of a couple of restricted stakes where he missed only by only half a length in each event. Seven year old has never better than in 2015. Dowse’s Beach has been out of the money only twice in his last ten starts. Horse has been consistent with his figures, does well at BEL and has a win at the distance. Iroquois Girl was off a year and has run  two good races. Ralph Nicks has been hot lately and the workouts suggest he’ll be dangerous today.

Race 9      10-3-5 (13)

Doc Curlin drops to his lowest price in search of a win and adds shades for focus. Has looked good in his turf starts. In his maiden race he missed by a nose at BEL. If he runs back to that one he’s got big outs. Updraft drops from MSW to MCL and has gotten the ultimate equipment change since his last in January. At his best he’s as good as any horse in this race. Seeking Daily goes for Jason Servis who is 33% off the layoff. Figures are right there with the top two, Our Luck has to get consideration if he draws in.

Columbus Day is still a holiday at Belmont. Not great races, but you never know when the possibilities will arise. Couple of things to note. All selections are for races on the turf. Some races have a fourth horse to account for the possibility of scratches since I’m doing this the night before.

Race 1      5-1

Watch and Tie has dominant figures but at 3/5 it would be hard to bet him to win. However, one cold exacta could be a money maker and I’m thinking Arctic King. This will be a theme through many of the cards – trainers are starting to unload the two year olds and three year olds that aren’t going to be part of their 2016 plans, and some of them are getting gelded. Arctic King hasn’t been out since AQU in 2014., but has a get workout in prep for this one. Plus, he’s been gelded and drops from MSW to the claiming ranks (sure sign they don’t see him as a top flight runner) . Trying to turn 3/5 into 9-1.

Race 2      1/1A-3-7

DJ has generally been entering two and scratching one. Bass River Road has a big figure from his second back and Johannesburg Smile has been showing good close lately. Wynhurst looks for three in a row for Ru Rod. Attractive Ride has won four of his last six with a second and a third.

Race 3      5-10-8-1

Thirst for Glory is one of those three year olds I’ve been talking about. Gets gelded and dropped to $40K from MSW. Best races are on the turf. Bapu comes third of a layoff and is on the improve. Gear Jammer has too many starts to get excited. He has good figs and is an in the money type though. Freudian Lights get first Lasix. He has improved with a move to the turf. Down side is that he hasn’t shown a lot of speed and has to worry about getting buried on the rail.

Race 4      4-6-1

Aleander won his NW2L and moves up in proce and condition. Favors the distance. Forest Boy is the DJ dropper. Lost all chance at the start last out but the time before that ran a new top. Call Daddy is looking for three in a row.

Race 5      2-8-6-10

Somerset Sandy came close last time and has the field topping figure. Ally’s Envy is another that almost busted through first time out and has a similar figure to a few in here. Lady Lucky has shown good closing ability at the route distances but is probably better bred for this distance. Bareeqa had trouble at the start but showed a lot of interest in a race where he had no shot. At 10-1 you have to give him a long look.

Race 6      2-7-5

Aussie Prayer won at this price as a maiden and came close in his NW2L race. Stays here for today’s race. Hatta’s Appeal has been running with better and her best turf race tops this field. Egyptian Magic was an eight start maiden and was jumped up over her head for her starts with winners. Back where she belongs.

Race 7      3-9-7-5

Hillaryinthehouse has looked good at BEL and ran a good combacker at SAR. Forever for Always has struggled a bit to get the win but at 15-1 ML and competitive figures she’s in the mix. Skinner Box has been close in his last three and should be in a good spot to finish. Loon River is another that is always close and could step up if there is a scratch.

Race 8      1-3-6-7

Guayana has a consistent set of figures and should get a perfect spot here. Natalie Victoria  has a good record at BEL and is coming off a couple of place finishes at DEL. Looks to have the numbers to compete. Callista switches to the Hennig barn after scoring first time out and second with winners. Have to respect that ability. Tahoe Tigress has been racing with much better and looked good when dropped to this price. All four horses have about equal chances.

Race 9      1-2-5

Isabella Sings just missed in a Grade 3 last out and tops the field from a figure standpoint. Partisan Politics has been good enough to win any of her last three with some better luck. She should be in a much better position to make her stretch move today. Consumer Credit won last time she wasn’t in a Graded race. Have to give her a long look.

Race 10   5-2-7-9

Mind Magic just missed first after the claim by Maker. Maker got her to run a new top.  Stays at this level. Priest N the Rabbi has run two decent races at this level. Ward switches to Cancel and the trainer/jock combo is 24%. Talledaga and Steet Fightin Man are multi-start maidens and could have something to say in the verticals.

Race 1      3-6-5

Inca Saint may have the best chance in a suspect field. His negatives (zero wins at BEL and 1 for 7 at the distance) give me pause, but his best figures top this field. Will need odds to push the button at the window. Power Crazed was claimed by RuRod for $35K, jumped up to the ALW level where he ran respectably, and is dropped down to $25K today. Not far behind the 3. Successful Brothers has 11 seconds in 29 starts and only 2 wins. He’s in the top three as the likely vertical horse.

Race 2      3-2-5

Big Gillette came close first time out and RuRod usually improves them second time out. Destin is a first timer for Pletcher/Castellano. The workouts are typical Pletcher and being a Giant’s Causeway he should have no issue with the distance. Sea Wizard is listed at 4-1 ML and given the low profile connections you have to think he might be the real deal. Four bullets in his last five works.

Race 3      5-6-1

Indygita won the last two times she was in straight claimers, last time with the hot Jose Ortiz aboard. All systems go today. Kacy Lauren has two in a row, last in a state-bred allowance. This straight maiden is not much of a drop down in reality but she has won at the distance and at BEL. Arctic Ocean has had some weather bad luck, but has run well on the turf and at BEL. Would be no surprise and at 10-1 is the interesting horse.

Race 4      4-3-1

Sources and Methods was grabbed last out by 27% winner Brad Cox. The horse was coming hard at seven furlongs to just miss and perhaps the mile distance will be in his favor. Pin and Win ran better than looked last time out, but let’s face it – he’s 1 for 20.  A small chance to win, but more likely right behind the horse breaking next to him again. Bossmon has been knocking around at this level for a while but has competitive figures for this group. Lots of question marks in this race, and a head scratching finish is not out of the question.

Race 5      3-4-2

Chapman had been off since the end of the AQU meet, came out at SAR and held the lead to the stretch. He’s got a lot of back class, Chris Englehart in his corner, and the works should have him ready. The concern? He can’t blow his brains out running with Comandante. That one is now the controlling speed since Petrocelli is out of the race. He’s dropping in price and would be no surprise wiring the field. Bug Juice has had success at the distance and his figures are competitive with this group.

Race 6       5-1-8

This is one tough race to handicap. It was impossible to eliminate more than a couple of runners at a glance. I went with Compliance Officer on top. He has been with better in the recent past and although he was beaten last out by Sinatra that was at a sixteenth longer. I think he turns the tables at a mile. Media Kid had been off four months but turned in a good one in his last out. Improvement likely in the second start off the layoff. Sinatra is in top condition, has shown an ability to track and if he can avoid being part of a speed duel he has a lot of outs.

Race 7      2-5-3

This is another tough affair. Street Jersey and Star’s Ride look like the potential front speed here and both have chances if the track favors speed. Godrevy has been closing mildly but should have pace to run at today. Figures look like they should produce a top finish. I’m looking at some of the horses that haven’t had multiple starts. Candour stretches out another 16th and moving to the middle of the track should give him more room to run. Bookeelia Island broke slow last out, but Rosario was patient and when he pushed the go button the horse started flying. With a clean trip he’s got lots of outs.

Race 8      3-10-8

This is another very competitive race and it was a lot of effort to reduce the likely winners to three horses. Three for Me has been running lights out this year. He has won three times in 2015, once at the state-bred NW1X level. He’s moving up a level, but given the competitive races he should be in the mix at the end. Battle Red just broke his maiden and may have finally figured out how to win after finishing second six of eight times. Romeo Lima ships over from France and Clement is 27% with first timers in the states. Euro figures might be a little light but should be competitive today.

Race 9      2-1/1A-7

One Sided hasn’t run a bad race is his life and has managed consistent figures. Likes BEL and should do well at the distance. The entry is now just a single. Sailmate may have been the weaker part of the entry, but this is a common Jacobson move. Sailmate was competitive with much better last year and he looks like he might be rounding into shape. Likely to go much higher than the 4-1 ML. Force should appreciate the cutback in distance. He should be part of the early pace and should have the lead heading into the stretch.

Race 10   11-7-8

Whatawonderflworld did well breaking from the outside last time and has to circle again. Casse is 26% with second start maidens. Sherry’s Miracle ran well after a troubled start last out. A clean trip puts him right in the mix. Slapstick just missed first time out and has a nice series of breezes prepping for this. Another who could be the winner with a move forward.