Race 1      2-6-5      C=2    V=3

Silver Ride broke his maiden at first asking but was not effective at the ALW NW1X level. HE dropped into this level last out and showed a lot of speed before fading to be a close fourth. Looks like he’s finally come to top condition again. Here Sir just broke his maiden by seven on a sloppy BEL track. May have simply been the wet track, but he’s had some competitive figures previously. Resourceful has been improving with each start. Has shown he can ship well and gets a nice switch to Irad.

Race 2      6-9-12      C=1    V=3

Pricedtoperfection showed a nice closing kick last out. The winner of that race came back to win next out. Chad Brown is lights out with second start maidens. Alto Belle showed good speed last out in an off the turf affair at today’s distance. The other top duo of Pletcher/Velasquez  make her a top threat. Girls Secret has a couple of thirds at this distance but will have to find position from the outside post.

Race 3      1-4-6      C=1    V=2

King Kranz ran a great race at BEL after showing his lack of experience in his first start. Although he is a maiden, I like what he showed last time. Ready Dancer was thrashed in the Champagne but this is a much easier spot. Should prefer the sprint. Full Salute has been in three stakes since graduating, winning one and finishing second twice. Coming from some lesser tracks, but looks like the real deal.

Race 4      11-6-10      C=1    V=2

This looks like a wide open race. Plainview has won a quarter of his races, including the last one at this distance. Seems to really like BEL. Almasty has three wins in seven starts this year. He faltered in the Better Talk Now but is well suited for the distance and the level. Sandy’z Slew stretches out today but has a second and third in two starts at the distance. Should be part of the front speed.

Race 5      4-1-8      C=1    V=2

In this race the horses with starts don’t stand out so we’ll look at Afleet Alfredo. He went for four times the stud fee and the workout pattern looks good. Playwright didn’t do much for Mott first out but he is not known for having horses ready to roll first out. Will need to show a lot more speed to not get buried on the rail. Charming Indy goes for Violette who is 17% with debuting maidens. If Schettino has him ready he will be dangerous.

Race 6      5-8-2      C=2    V=2

Coturnix was claimed last out by Abby Adsit. He bobbled at the start in that race but in the race previous ran a figure that would put him right there at the end. Midnight Notes is at the right level for his ability. He only has one win this year, but four seconds. Recent figures top the field. Tattenham was claimed by Mott last out and he doesn’t do that very often. No reason to expect he’s lost any condition since his last out.

Race 7      1-7-2      C=1    V=1

Jax Heritage has been looking to break through for a while and has been close a few times. Crescent Street is a little closer to having broken his maiden and since then he’s been competitive. His last race the jockey lost the whip but still finished with courage. Looks to be the best competition. His best races seem to be at the mile distance. Chasintheblues is another that has been knocking but can’t get in. His one win has come at BEL and the distance.

Race 8      9-3-7-11      C=2    V=2

S’maverlous was claimed last out by the shrew Michael Maker after winning his third in a row and fourth in his last six. Loves to win and has the figures to keep the streak alive. First Down was up against it on a muddy BEL dirt in the Allied Forces. Prior to that he came close to wiring a similar field. Alex the Terror won his first start for Toscano and is looking for two in a row. He’s been with better in the recent past and should be part of the front speed. Longfor the City has been on the improve and is worth a look at a price.

Race 9      10-6-13-1-12      C=1    V=2

I’ll give my analysis in order of preference. I think there are at least five horses with reasonable chances.

• Coffee Clique has pretty much been in nothing but graded stakes. She won the Just a Game at BEL last year. She may have lost half a step since last year, but in top shape she’s as dangerous as any horse in here.
• Granny’s Mc’s Kitten has a good pressing style and a hearty closing kick. She’s consistent and with Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz she’s got a much better chance than the 10-1 odds suggest.
• Lady Lara just missed in the Noble Damsel at BEL last out. She’s a legitimate graded horse and Mott is as sharp as there is with turfers. Another with a legitimate shot if she can overcome the far outside post.
• Stellar Path should be toward the front so the inside post should not work against her. She might be a step below some of the others in here, but could be a factor based on pace.
• Fauflier ships over from France. She’s been running in Group events competitively and gets Lasix today. Trainer and jockey made the trip with her.

Race 10   2-11-4-10      C=2    V=2

Light the Night stretches out a furlong after coming close in his first two starts. Tops the ones who have started figurewise. War of Ideas goes first time for the deadly combo of Brown/Ortiz. Well bred for the distance. Jan’s Reserve has three ok starts and takes the blinkers off today. Dilger is 2 of 5 with that move. Publishanditerate goes first time for McLaughlin who is 25% with first timers.