Belmont October 12

Columbus Day is still a holiday at Belmont. Not great races, but you never know when the possibilities will arise. Couple of things to note. All selections are for races on the turf. Some races have a fourth horse to account for the possibility of scratches since I’m doing this the night before.

Race 1      5-1

Watch and Tie has dominant figures but at 3/5 it would be hard to bet him to win. However, one cold exacta could be a money maker and I’m thinking Arctic King. This will be a theme through many of the cards – trainers are starting to unload the two year olds and three year olds that aren’t going to be part of their 2016 plans, and some of them are getting gelded. Arctic King hasn’t been out since AQU in 2014., but has a get workout in prep for this one. Plus, he’s been gelded and drops from MSW to the claiming ranks (sure sign they don’t see him as a top flight runner) . Trying to turn 3/5 into 9-1.

Race 2      1/1A-3-7

DJ has generally been entering two and scratching one. Bass River Road has a big figure from his second back and Johannesburg Smile has been showing good close lately. Wynhurst looks for three in a row for Ru Rod. Attractive Ride has won four of his last six with a second and a third.

Race 3      5-10-8-1

Thirst for Glory is one of those three year olds I’ve been talking about. Gets gelded and dropped to $40K from MSW. Best races are on the turf. Bapu comes third of a layoff and is on the improve. Gear Jammer has too many starts to get excited. He has good figs and is an in the money type though. Freudian Lights get first Lasix. He has improved with a move to the turf. Down side is that he hasn’t shown a lot of speed and has to worry about getting buried on the rail.

Race 4      4-6-1

Aleander won his NW2L and moves up in proce and condition. Favors the distance. Forest Boy is the DJ dropper. Lost all chance at the start last out but the time before that ran a new top. Call Daddy is looking for three in a row.

Race 5      2-8-6-10

Somerset Sandy came close last time and has the field topping figure. Ally’s Envy is another that almost busted through first time out and has a similar figure to a few in here. Lady Lucky has shown good closing ability at the route distances but is probably better bred for this distance. Bareeqa had trouble at the start but showed a lot of interest in a race where he had no shot. At 10-1 you have to give him a long look.

Race 6      2-7-5

Aussie Prayer won at this price as a maiden and came close in his NW2L race. Stays here for today’s race. Hatta’s Appeal has been running with better and her best turf race tops this field. Egyptian Magic was an eight start maiden and was jumped up over her head for her starts with winners. Back where she belongs.

Race 7      3-9-7-5

Hillaryinthehouse has looked good at BEL and ran a good combacker at SAR. Forever for Always has struggled a bit to get the win but at 15-1 ML and competitive figures she’s in the mix. Skinner Box has been close in his last three and should be in a good spot to finish. Loon River is another that is always close and could step up if there is a scratch.

Race 8      1-3-6-7

Guayana has a consistent set of figures and should get a perfect spot here. Natalie Victoria  has a good record at BEL and is coming off a couple of place finishes at DEL. Looks to have the numbers to compete. Callista switches to the Hennig barn after scoring first time out and second with winners. Have to respect that ability. Tahoe Tigress has been racing with much better and looked good when dropped to this price. All four horses have about equal chances.

Race 9      1-2-5

Isabella Sings just missed in a Grade 3 last out and tops the field from a figure standpoint. Partisan Politics has been good enough to win any of her last three with some better luck. She should be in a much better position to make her stretch move today. Consumer Credit won last time she wasn’t in a Graded race. Have to give her a long look.

Race 10   5-2-7-9

Mind Magic just missed first after the claim by Maker. Maker got her to run a new top.  Stays at this level. Priest N the Rabbi has run two decent races at this level. Ward switches to Cancel and the trainer/jock combo is 24%. Talledaga and Steet Fightin Man are multi-start maidens and could have something to say in the verticals.