I’m going to try a new feature. I’m not sure how it will work and it may need some refinement, but I’m going to categorize races with regard to Competitiveness (C) and Value (V). C1  would represent a race where there are lots of contenders. V1 would represent a race where some price horses have good potential. C2 would be a race where the contenders stick out and there are some clear eliminations. V2 would represent average value. C3 would be a race where a few contenders stick out. V3 would represent a race where payoffs should not be high. I expect not to have too many V1 races.

Race 1      7-2-4      C=2    V=2

This is a difficult race for a couple of reasons. There are two Pletcher first-timers, a solid looking favorite, and some horses that have previously started and have excuses. Acapella lost as the favorite for Chad Brown and stretches out a furlong here. The two horses that beat her both came back to win. She was a $300K purchase, a good sum for a NY bred. Most likely will achieve favoritism. Flataway is the first-timer for Pletcher that gets Velasquez and that is usually a deadly combination. Well bred for the distance and the dirt. Sweet Peaches missed her break fist time out on the turf but did make a strong stretch move. She’s better bred for the dirt and at 15-1 may be the value in the race.

Race 2      7-5-4      C=1    V=2

Chelsea Road has been popular at the claiming box and winds up in John Parisella’s barn for this start. She’s been flipping back and forth between the dirt and the turf, but if you look at the record a quarter of her races have been on the fast dirt but half her wins, and a third at BEL earlier this year. There are some negatives – she hasn’t won this year – but given how many horses have a shot in here, I’ll look for some value. Talent N Passion is 2 for 2 this year and 2 for 3 at BEL. She’s proven at the distance and looks to be the clear frontrunner in this field. Irad jumps on for the ride. Bridgetta is another speedy sort and she gets a good switch to Castellano. She’s had good success at BEL and the distance, and is at the right price.

Race 3      5-9-2-4      C=2    V=2

Congress Park finally drops out of MSW to the claiming ranks. Her last start she wasn’t able to control the pace but the start before she missed wiring a field by a nose. She looks like the controlling speed today and has two figures that would top the field. Tiz Adore stumbled out of the gate first time out and lost all chance. She is very well bred for the distance and Shirreffs has a high percentage with second start maidens. One other interesting horse I’d point out is Classy Teacher. She came out first time against super turf filly Lady Eli and then ran a clunker on the dirt. She laid off a year, returning in the care of RuRod. He put her in a race that got washed off the turf where she showed a little interest early before fading. That race should give her some needed condition and the drop to the claiming level should help. Enthusiastic Gal has one turf sprint at Parx but shouldn’t have trouble with the stretch out. In her sprint she broke slowly and was wide, losing all chance. I like the switch to Lezcano, and while it’s a bit speculative the 6-1 odds make her worth a look.

Race 4      5-3-6      C=1    V=2

Lost in D Shuffle shifted to the Michelle Nevin barn for 2015. She’s had one dirt race, one synthetic race, and and one turf race. Nevin put front wraps on him last time, but doesn’t drop him out of the MSW ranks. Another that is a little speculative but interesting. Lightning Buzz may have gotten the top slot but I’m a little hesitant because of the switch to Luzzi. He’s got the speed and looked tough dueling all the way around the track last out. Henrik Rules goes first time for Carl Domino who is 20% first time with limited data. The last workout was a bright advertisement for the horse’s potential speed.

Race 5      10-8-9   C=1    V=2

There are only a couple of easy pitches in the 5th, hence the C1 rating. That being said, I’m going with Nevada Kid. He’s been off since March 2014, but has a sharp workout (an advertisement?) and has won before off the long layoff. Obviously this horse has some physical issues and Zito is practically giving the horse away, but I’m thinking Zito wants him to show well. Moneyinyourpocket was taken by DiPrima last out. a win at the $16,000 level. He fits at the level, and his figures are competitive with this group. Cease has not won a race in the last two years but has been in the money four of six starts this year. Figues suggest he has the ability, we’ll have to see if he has the heart.

Race 6      5-6-10       C=1    V=1

I like some price horses in this race, hence the V1 rating. We’ll start with Upstate Bird at 8-1 on the ML. She jumped up to the wrong distance and class last out, so you can throw that race out. Before that she had not finished any worse than fourth at this level.  Once again DJ dropping a horse is a pretty common move. Daisy Cutter hasn’t seen this price since her maiden voyage. She’s got two wins this year and has been consistently around the same figure. Race and Shine has been picking up minor checks for most of the year. Her last three races she’s run the same number and they have been her best of 2015. Potential for a breakthrough is there.

Race 7      5-1-6      C=3    V=3

Bellamy Way will be battling for favoritism with Uncle Sigh. Bellamy Way adds shades today after showing well in the Albany. He’s been consistent and fits the level perfectly. Uncle Sigh was a top three year old early last year and has looked good in his two state-bred starts this year. Colorado Grandslam is not without chances, especially given his controlling speed. It really looks like the winner has to come from one of these three.

Race 8      3-4-1      C=2    V=2

Crisolles has been competitive since coming to America and has been fairly unlucky not to have a win. Doesn’t dominate the field, but at his best should handle them. Queen’s Parade has been ambitiously placed since popping in an OC$25K. Adds blinkers today and given the improvement in the last few months has every right to be part of the finish. Evidently comes off a couple of Grade 3 races where she beat half the field. Decidedly easier task today.

Race 9      7-6-8      C=1    V=2

Tough race to close the card. Oscar Nominated has two good races at the MSW level and drops down to the claiming ranks today. Cyber Security goes first time for the combination of Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz. Table Talk is the intersting horse at 15-1 ML. He had the lead for a half in his last and was not that far out at the stretch call. Should show some improvement with the experience under his belt.