Daily selections from racetracks around the county
Most likely another day with lots of scratches. Only Race 7 stayed on the turf. Speed seemed to hold up well yesterday so we’ll be looking at some of the speed horses today.
Race 1 3-4-7
Race 2 7-1-6
Race 3 1-3-2
Race 4 1-4-5
Race 5 1-4-2-9
Race 6 7-4-2
Race 7 4-3-1
Race 8 4-6-9
Race 9 6-3-1
Happy Veterans Day and thanks to all who have served. Interesting AQU card.
Now that the track has come up sloppy and off the turf, fields have gotten shorter and the shape of races have changed. I’ll offer a couple of adjustments.
Race 1 2-7-6 C=2 V=2
No scratches in this race so I’ll leave the choices the same. Touchdown may get a bump up if the track favors speed.
In a race where it looks like a number of horses have legitimate chances, I’m starting with Jai Alai. Since breaking his maiden for $40K he’s been trying higher priced fields. He cuts way back today and given his recent figures he’s a competitor in here. Husion is 27% off the short layoff. Bird Prince is another dropping way down for this race. He’s got plenty of speed and may hold it better in a lower price field. Touchdown is an interesting runner that get first Lasix. He seems better adapted to a dirt sprint and at 12-1 I’ll be thinking about having him in my exotics.
Race 2 8-9-2-5 C=1 V=1
Seeking Alpha and Caldera were scratched and only five starters remain. Moss Code may move up on the wet track. Bluegrass Rye and Contradict stay in the top three.
Seeking Alpha has the best last race figure and drops from MSW down to the claiming ranks. Blugrass Rye improved in his last race when dropped down and a similar effort puts him right there. Caldera can be excused for his last and gets back to the grass today. Given he has fewer starts than most in here there is room for improvement. Contradict is a proce dropper with competitive figures.
Race 3 3-5-1 C=2 V=2
With Irish Whisper out I’d move Lady Gracenote up. Run a Dubb Dubb and Bileaps and Bounds remain in the top three.
Run a Dubb Dubb has had a pretty good 2015 and drops in price for this race. Her last two wins came at this level. Bileaps and Bounds has the top speed in the race, and while she’ll likely be challenged she’s 4 of 9 in the win column this year. Irish Whisper is 2 for 2 on the AQU dirt. She’s only had three starts this year and has figures that give her a good shot to win.
Race 4 2-7-1 (11) C=1 V=1
The top choices all stayed in the race, and Module drew in. Module definitely factors in the race.
Anna Creek ran well after breaking from the outside. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz are deadly with two year old turf fillies. Mo’s Ginny improved when moved to the turf and should have an impact today. Gold Medalist didn’t look sharp last out but has been freshened and moves to the turf where she’s better bred. If Module gets into the race she’s a definite contender.
Race 5 6-5-8 C= 1 V=1
Head Shrinker improved when moved from the turf to a dirt sprint. Stays at the right level for this run. Live Like Jay drops from MSW and gets first Lasix. Last race produced a lot of next out winners and the works should have her ready to go. Show Giant is a first timer with a good workout pattern. Gary Gullo is good with first time starters.
Race 6 8-2-6 C=1 V=2
The top choices stayed in and I’ll stick with them.
Geaux Mets comes from FL to challenge an OC$40K group. He’s a win type that rarely runs a bad race. Should have a good spot to run at the leader and off his best figures is competitive here. Bass River Road has been popular at the claim box lately. Will have to make sure to get a good spot from the rail but has the talent to be a factor here. Gypsum Johnny hasn’t been out of the money in four months but has had trouble cracking the winner’s circle. Was a winner last time he was on the AQU dirt.
Race 7 2-3-7-10 C=1 V=1
Of the top choices only Rontos New York stayed in this race. G R’s Giant moves up substantially in this field.
Dynamic Decision drops down in search of a win today. His lifetime numbers stand above the field, so his best effort should give him the win. Whippo comes off a solid maiden win and should be one of the front runners here. Britannia’s Most was over his head in the last two and drops to a much more likely level. Rontos New York has had trouble cracking the winner’s circle but could be useful in the verticals.
Race 8 2-1-6 C=2 V=2
Ocean Knight has been handled well by McLaughlin and seems ready for this step up. His last race was impressive and a repeat makes him the danger. Madefromlucky has three wins in seven tries this year and he’s been racing exclusively in graded stakes. Should find this easier group easier to handle. Tommy Macho is another coming out of graded stakes and should also benefit from catching an easier field.
Race 9 6-10-2 C=1 V=1
With Secure Access and Laquesta scratched and Tessio in the race, Tessio gets the nod with Scatoosh.
Secure Access improved when moved to the turf and has a last race figure that should dominate the field. Laquesta should be one of the horses close up early and she’s shown some courage in the stretch. Scatoosh improved when stretched out and a repeat performance puts her in the mix.
Race 1 2-4-7 C=3 V=3
Congrats Kid has two races that are better than looked. He’s dropping from MSW down to the claiming ranks and has a good workout 10 days ago. Gets first Lasix. Lots of small positives. Little Schmo is another making a substantial drop today. Has some early foot and seems better suited for the dirt and the sprint distance. Ghostcatcher is another of the price droppers. Takes the blinkers off today and has a nice work in prep for this.
Race 2 7-5-8-6 C=1 V=2
This race was an awful mess to handicap. I finally settled on Threes Are Wild, a colt making his third start. He improved in his second start, puts blinkers on, and despite the very low key trainer he manages to attract Irad. Could prove the value. Colonel Jessup has shown a lot of early foot and may be tough to catch. The 13 starts are a negative, but given the long odds he’s worth a look. Mind Magic has been close at this level a few times and has the best lifetime figure in the field. Freudian Lights has three third place finishes in a row, and figures at this distance and price.
Race 3 2-1-5 C=2 V=2
Son of a General was claimed last out by Asmussen. Horse has a win and two seconds in four starts this year. His figures have been consistent and given he’s running at the same level as last out, he has to be a serious contender. Day of Fury finished second at OC $62K and drops down to the $32K level. Has had a good 2015 and DJ is always dangerous off the drop. Integrity was a winner last out at a slightly higher price and should be the one to catch.
Race 4 1A-3-4 C=2 V=3
Wheels Up Now goes for Albertrani who is not especially strong with first time runners, so you can excuse the first race. He adds Lasix for this start and has the best last race figure. Solid in the win slot. Condo King ran well in his first start last May and has been working well for the return. Stradavari goes first time for Pletcher/Velazquez and has a typical Pletcher pattern.
Race 5 6-2-7 C=1 V=1
Undertherainhas the best early foot in the field and has competitive figures. At 12-1 he’s worth consideration. On a Star has been in the money three of five starts this year and has the best last race figure. Ten Penny Princess is four of four in the money this year and ran a lifetime best last out.
Race 6 3-1-8 C=1 V=2
This race is highly competitive where even the longshots look like they have a chance. I went with Juba, a solid horse at this level. He’s been good throughout 2015 and has the best last race number. S’maverlous is on a four race win streak and can’t be discounted. Lucky Lotto fits at this level and has competitive numbers. At 15-1 he’s worth a second look.
Race 7 1-4-7-8 C=1 V=1
All Over Me won his last out and makes a pretty good drop today. He’s one of a number in here with chances. Hyman Roth has had a good 2015 and jumps up a bit in price, but his numbers say he’s right in the mix with this group. Frrogman Mel has done well at higher levels and drops down looking for the win. Cozy Kitten has had trouble winning but has been coming every race. Could be a stretch factor.
Race 8 7-5-1 C=2 V=3
My Super Nova is a bit of an enigma. She’s looked good in 2015 but hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle. Plus, her one race over the AQU dirt was poor. Still, in this group she has to be given a long look. Golden Gem is another that has looked competitive but can’t seem to find the winner’s circle. Violette has had a quiet AQU meet so far, puts the blinkers on and gets a good jockey switch to Castellano. She’s All Even just broke her maiden last out in a good time. Jumps up today but at 10-1 still has to be considered.
Race 9 2-3-9 C=1 V=2
Energy Policy ran well first time out, stretches out slightly today. Very much in the mix. Next Shares makes his fifth start. In his first two starts he finished second in a MSW and then second in a Grade 2. He led to the stretch in the Pilgrim but faded five lengths. In his next out he bobbled at the start and lost any real chance. With a clean start he should be right there at the wire. In Equality showed a little bit of speed last time and didn’t fade that badly. Gets Lasix today. Love the chances at 15-1 ML.
Race 1 5-4-1 C=2 V=2
Resourceful looks like the clear frontrunner and will have to be caught. Danzig Storm was one of the horses that slipped by Resourceful last out and certainly looks competitive in this field. Ross J Dawg is a head and a neck away from being undefeated and if he takes to the dirt he’s going to be dangerous.
Race 2 1-4-8 C=1 V=1
This race was confusing and I spent quite a while on it before reluctantly coming up with three choices. Pep the Champ got the nod. He was claimed last out by Joe Sharp who is 27% first off the claim. Elroi is the best closer in the race and should be coming at the end. Changewilldoyagood drops out of a state-bred OC$40K into a $35K NW3. His figures say he is competitive here.
Race 3 2-8-4-5 C=1 V=1
This race has a ton of early speed and not a lot of closers. Longfor the City has three recent races that were competitive at the distance. He’ls the selection based on him looking like the best finisher. Between the Lines hasn’t been worse than second in over a year and gets top apprentice Cancel in the saddle. On Tap only has two starts. Has been off since January, but has a good third over the AQU dirt. Alex the Terror has improved since the claim by Toscano and figures to be in the mix today.
Race 4 4-5-11-10 C=1 V=1
Sassy Spirit made a big improvement when moved to the turf and at 12-1 ML should be considered. Two Below was wide in a five horse field but closed willingly for second. Another longshot with better outs than her odds suggest. Tiyo ran a good one first time out. Castellano rode her in that first race and the switch to De Sousa is not encouraging, but if she gets the right ride she’s in the mix. Stupefaction ships in from Parx, drops out of MSW, and gets first Lasix. Interesting combiantion.
Race 5 9-1A-4 C-2 V=2
Super Psyche was not at his best on the slop last out but prior to that just missed on the SAR turf. Pop the Hood looks the stronger of the Broman entry. He hasn’t looked strong in the stretch but adds blinkers in an attempt to focus. River of Magic has a couple of mediocre races and Weaver takes the blinkers off and moves him to the dirt. His breeding looks far more adapted to the dirt.
Race 6 7-1/1A-5 C=1 V=1
Bigger Picture was unlucky not to be on a two race win streak. Horse rarely runs a bad one. The entry of Midnight Notes and Mr. Rosenthal look formidable in this group. One is more front, the other more off the pace from mid-pack. Both have been in good condition lately. McIlroy has had some seconditis lately but the numbers say he has a reasonable chance.
Race 7 3-2-8-6 C=2 V=2
Send It In moves up off a win at the $50K SA level. Will be closing and hopefully will not run out of real estate. Uncle Sigh was well regarded in early 2014. His two return races have not been that impressive. He’ll be a favorite but looks vulnerable. Full of Mine usually runs a competitive race and should be around at the end. Euros to Dollars makes his fifth start and has been improving with each start.
Race 8 3-4-8-2 C=1 V=1
This is a very competitive edition of the Long Island Handicap. There are probably seven horses you could make a case for. Goldy Espony is dangerous if the pace is leisurely. Rosalind is very tractable and has figures just as fast as any horse in the race. Danza Cavallo nearly won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl and nearly won this race last year. Evidently is the sleeper horse in the field. Her Grade 3 efforts are not great, but her figures say she has an excellent chance, especially since she has the best closing kick. Gottachancetodance looks overmatched her. Mei Ling is MTO. Courtesan is another that looks overmatched. Mutatis Mutandis is a step slower than the top two but given that her last was her first in America, she could make a big step forward. A definite contender. Crisolies has looked excellent since moving to America, although in lower grade races. Still, her numbers say she has a legitimate chance. Walk Close and Interrupted don’t look like they have real shots here.
Race 9 1-9-4 C=2 V=2
Spooked Out has one race and it was a good one. With small improvement he runs away from this field. Gaming improved significantly when moved to the dirt. Hit It Once More has run two good races, although it’s a little disappointing he didn’t break through. Still, can’t ignore him in this group.
Race 1 3-6-1 C=2 V=3
Greek Life drops slightly in price off a win in an open $20K. She’s already improved off the claim by Falcone. She’s a 50% winner this year and is well suited for the distance. Colonel Juanita has been consistent this year and has been popular at the claiming box. Despite the jump in price she’s got competitive numbers and should be the one to catch. My Donna Jean was taken by Contessa last out. Has a win and is 3 of 5 in the money at AQU.
Race 2 3-1-8 C=2 V=3
Lots of horses with multiple starts in this maiden affair, but I like looking at the horses with fewer starts. Counter Culture made a good debut at 6.5 furlongs and puts the blinkers on for this effort. That first run was really better than looked considering she got caught up in a lively speed duel. Beating Heart Baby is listed at even money on the ML, and while she has plenty of outs, she isn’t clearly superior to the top choice here. She’s been off a year, but switches to trainer Michelle Nevin who is 24% with the long layoffs. Lil Renegade showed some speed when moved to the turf last out and definitely looked improved.
Race 3 5-1-2 C=3 V=3
Theophilia has a ton of speed and is only 3/4 of a length away from being undefeated in 2015. Will have to be run down. Guayana has four wins in eight starts this year and has shown some liking for AQU. Always runs competitively. Natalie Victoria has the best last race figure. DJ usually rules the winter at AQU.
Race 4 11-9-2 C=1 V=1
Foolish Cause is listed at 20-1 ML. She’s shown some new maturity, although she hasn’t quite been able to finish. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will keep her focused to the wire. Matty’s Wondergirl is a nine start maiden that has been in and out of the money lately. Her numbers look competitive and perhaps number 10 is the charm. Break Away has shown good closing ability and should benefit if a pace duel develops.
Race 5 2-1-3 C=2 V=2
Cosmic Coincidence was claimed two back by Edward Barker 75% of his wins have come at this distance. Life’s Reward is dropping down a few levels in price. He comes off a win two back and followed that with a mediocre effort. Has the figures to top this field. Best Play is a new gelding and would be competitive off his best. We’ll see if the equipment change makes a difference.
Race 6 7-11-8-3 C=1 V=1
Miss Thursday dominated a field at Delaware and came back at Parx in an ALW NW1X where she ran pretty well. She’s been competitive since breaking her maiden and has the best last race figure. Daisy a Day has been competitive at slightly higher levels and has had improving figures lately. Shakespearian Dream hasn’t run a bad one in a while and beat a few others in here last out. One of a number of horses with good outs. Theresa Candyrose has a good tracking style, should get good position early and should have first jump on the frontrunners.
Race 7 5-4-6 C=2 V=2
This one looks like a battle between the two heavyweights, Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher. The good news is that both trainers are keeping the horses in MSW. The Brown entrant, Acapella, stumbled at the start last out but still managed to finish second. With a clean break she’s the danger. Pletcher’s horse, Taken by Surprise has two turf starts and moves to the dirt today. She’s better bred for the dirt and should improve at the sprint distance. Ditch Em goes first time for George Weaver. Uncle Mo’s progeny are off to a rip-roaring start and the workout pattern looks like he should have her ready.
Race 8 3-2-4 C=2 V=2
The Big Deluxe has dominating figures when he is at his best. He’s been a little off lately but drops to his lowest price in a while. Likes this distance and shows some liking for AQU. Pegasus Red was taken by Persaud out of an open $12,500 claimer. Moves up in price but with state-breds. Good enough to get the win in this group. Star of New York does well at the distance and at AQU and has been running consistent figures.
Race 9 3-7-2 C=1 V=1
Ally’s Envy has run two good ones and stretches out in search of the win. Ragazza Di Papi ran well first time out and should improve today. Lady’s First gets a trainer switch to Tony Dutrow. Has run figures as good as any of the starters in the race.
Remember C represents competitiveness where 1 is the most competitive and 3 the least competitive. V is value where 1 is the best value and 3 is the worst value.
Race 1 2-5-3 C=3 V=3
Even Bette ran a strong race a year ago at AQU then laid off until late September. Her comeback race was a good one and she should improve off of that race. Building Permit is six of seven in the money but she’s had some trouble cracking the winner’s circle. Her last race gave her a dominating figure and given the strength of this field she’ll be tough to keep out. Brandini has the look of a horse with physical issues, but at her best she’s competitive in this field.
Race 2 2-1-3 C=3 V=2
Ideal Quality apparently does not figure in to Todd Pletcher’s plans for next year. Pletcher drops him down to $40K claimers and he looks like he should have an eacy time here. Lightning Bug looked well placed at $40K but jumped up last time to a straight MSW. He had some trouble at the start but still showed some interest. Looks more like running for second today. Uncle Duncan is another dropping from MSW and looks as good as any to contend for the win.
Race 3 3-2-5 C=2 V=2
Autumn Squall’s best race came at this distance. Since that race she’s been flopping back and forth between the turf and dirt and not looking strong in the stretch. She looks to be the dominating speed and may be able to control the pace in her favor. Eta Carinae finished a distant second at BEL in October but has her sole win over the AQU dirt. Johnny V stays for the trip. Yes for Success is another flopping between turf and dirt but her one win came on the dirt. Another whose only win came at AQU.
Race 4 2-4-7 C=2 V=2
Tapitry has been in good form and drops from a Grade 2 down to this OC $80K. Her figures dominate the field. Runner Runner has looked good in her two starts in the U.S. Chad Brown is one of the best turf trainers out there, and she should be wound up for this start. Rock Me Again should be the pacesetter and if she can dictate her own pace could be dangerous.
Race 5 1-3-5 C=2 V=2
Banker’s Boss had some trouble at the start in his last race, rushed up and expectedly faded. Prior to that start he had been competitive at this level. With a fair start he will be the danger. Jacob’s Here has been knocking for a while but his last race showed much better close than we’d seen in a while. Properly placed at this level. Our Luck drops down and puts the blinkers on. His first effort on the turf showed some ability and his second effort he never cleared the field. Big improvement in post position today and with a better break he has good outs.
Race 6 7-1/1A-2 C=2 V=2
Sokie came close first time out. That’s the good news. The not so good news is that she was on a crawling pace, went out to a clear lead and couldn’t hold on. Still, in this field she could be the pacesetter again and with one race under her belt should be stronger. The Contessa-trained entry of Neilinger and Aimone is interesting at ML odds of 10-1. Neilinger looked fine in her first turf route in a while, but is not the strongest part of the entry. Aimone looks like the stronger of the two. Her last race turned a good figure and given this is only her fourth start there is plenty of room for improvement. Kodiva has a third in a minor stakes at Newmarket and has looked competitive in her two U.S. starts.
Race 7 3-6-4 C=3 V=3
Beautyinthepulpit drops down to his lowest level in a while. He’s been off since February but has run well fresh and RuRod is 24% off the long layoff. Dominating figures off his best race. Wake Up in Malibu was claimed by John Parisella off a win two back and he almost got him to repeat. Should be out winging it on the lead. One Sided has shown some versatility and hasn’t run a bad race yet. Have to give him serious consideration.
Race 8 12-9-2 C=1 V=1
Lots of potential contenders in this race. I’m going to put Sax Change on top. He showed well while wide last out, and given the outside post he’s going to have to work out a trip today. Potentially is at 20-1 ML and given his decent run last out has to be considered. Ranger’s Coming should get the jump on the other frontrunner Brooklyn Speights. Best race came on the turf and he’s back there today.
Opening day of racing at Aqueduct for the next six months. Get comfortable. Next time you see Belmont we’ll be well into spring.
Race 1 6-1-2 C=3 V=3
Race 2 6-3-1 C=2 V=2
Race 3 6-2-4 C=3 V=3
Race 4 7-1-8 C=2 V=2
Race 5 6-1-2 C=3 V=2
Race 6 8-7-1-4 C=1 V=2
Race 7 9-7-3 C=2 V=2
Race 8 7-6-1 C=2 V=2
Race 9 7-1-5 C-2 V-1
The second day of the Breeder’s Cup is an exhausting grind. I hope you’ve saved up your bankroll because it could expensive by the end of the day.
Race 3 The Juvenile Fillies
There are not many Grade 1 races for two year old fillies. The Del Mar Debutante, the Spinaway, the Chandler, the Alcibiades, and the Frizette. We’ll focus most of the attention on the Grade 1 horses.
Songbird won the two West Coast Grade 1 races, the last one around two turns at today’s distance. Her pace figures absolutely dominate this field. That’s the good news. The bad news is that this is a much deeper field than she’s faced previously. She’s never been headed, but Nickname and Forever Darling should provide competition up front. She’ll be bet heavily, and she does look like the one to beat, but….
Land Over Sea was running behind the top pick in both the West Coast Grade 1’s and it is hard to believe the result is likely to be different today. Doug O’Neill’s top filly, Gomo, sustained an injury and this horse will fill the spot for Reddam Racing. O’Neill is a top conditioner, and if anyone can pull the upset it’s him. If Songbird is compromised in the front, Land Over Sea is one of the horses that can benefit.
Nickname won the Frizette on a sloppy Belmont and earned a big number doing it. The knock on the effort is that a couple of the top fillies passed the race, so perhaps she wasn’t as strong as previous Frizette winners. She should have no issue with the distance and may improve with a drier racetrack. Her Kenneland works are encouraging. We haven’t necessarily seen her best, and we don’t know if her best is good enough to beat Songbird, but she has to be in the mix.
Rachel’s Valentina was the winner of the Spinaway the last week of Saratoga. She has dream breeding and will have no issue negotiating the mile and a sixteenth. Pletcher decided to bring her up to this race with works, and perhaps that is not the best decision. Let’s face it. TAP is still an ace and the potential is limitless for the daughter of Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. There is enough ambiguity and other talent in this race that given the odds, I’m not likely to use her on top.
Dothraki Queen was coming at Gomo in the Alcibiades and she is potentially the horse that will benefit most from a pace duel. Given the potential shape of the race, she is not without chances.
Is this race primed for an upset? On paper it iooks like if Songbird is to lose, some other horse is going to have to show us something they haven’t already. But with young horses, the improvements can be dramatic from race to race. Remember last year that Take Charge Brandi outran any of her previous figures. Can Land Over Sea jump up? Is the Frizette winner looking at a new top? Is the sentimental choice, Rachel’s Valentina, going to run like mom or pop? It might be gambling, but that’s why the run the race instead of deciding it on paper.
Race 4 Turf Sprint
This race doesn’t have the twist of the last Breeder’s Cup where horses had to negotiate the unique Santa Anita course. The fact is this race is a 14-horse mess of a race, and it may more resemble a rodeo than an organized horserace. There are speed horses galore (at least 11 of the 14 prefer the front) and there is a lot of front running quality.
Undrafted is one of the few horses that prefers coming from off the pace. He was a winner in a six furlong race at Ascot, earning a huge figure. I like that he came back at Kentucky Downs and ran an even race at a distance that’s not his best. One concern – given the off the pace style, he may find the 5.5 furlongs a bit too short. But with all the speed, it can hardly set up better for him. At 4-1 he’s not highly attractive, but it’s not likely you’ll get less on him.
Ready for Rye has to overcome the 12 post but Albertrani’s moving him to the turf has been a real tonic for the horse. He’s riding a three race winning streak and his turf numbers look as strong as anyone. At 10/1 ML he’s making it onto my tickets.
Lady Shipman is a three year old filly going against the boys. Don’t be fooled. These speedy fillies can compete in any race. My knock? I think sometimes fillies can get intimidated and physically bounced around in big fields, and she hasn’t even seen a 10 horse field since April. Yes, the numbers look strong and her fractions are blazing, but she’s not going to be in my top two. If she clears early and has the front to herself, she has real outs, but if not, I’d be surprised to see her in the mix at the end.
Pure Sensation is a true turf sprinter. In his four turf races, he’s won three (at this distance) and that is enough to put him in the mix here. No question he’s got to gun from the one hole and if he can get a spot he’s well suited for the distance.
No Silent is one of the West Coast competitors in the race. He’s got speed and has won 50% of his starts at this distance. He lost the Shakertown in his Keeneland start, but if you look at that race he really had no shot after breaking slow, getting bumped and having to race wide. Often the West Coast sprinters are first rate, and he looks as good as any horse shipping from the coast.
Green Mask may be the best of the closers. I like how Wesley Ward gave him plenty of recovery time after the race in Dubai, and I like the Kentucky Downs race as a prep. He’s got some useful works at Keeneland, and while he’s a stretch in the top slot, he’s got reasonable chances to be in the exotics.
This is a wide open race. I’m not a big Lady Shipman fan, but I like what I’ve seen of Undrafted. Ready for Rye is an interesting starter, especially at the odds. But if something totally surprising happens, well, maybe it wasn’t such a big surprise at all.
Race 5 F&M Sprint
Some of the races seem almost gimmicky, and for me this may be one, although there are some quality fillies and mares in this race. There should be enough speed to give the off the pace horses something to run at. I wouldn’t be surprised if any one of eight or nine horses won.
Cavorting is breaking from the far outside and that makes her vulnerable for me. She will likely stay in the center of the track, so ground loss is a real possibility. She’s a three year old going up against older for the first time, but she has run some A+ races in her last two. The McLaughlin/Ortiz combo has been dynamite this year. She’ll probabably go favorite, but she has to run a perfect race to get the win.
Taris has been effective at the middle distance, winning two of three at seven furlongs. One other important clue – her lifetime top came right here at Keeneland at this distance in a Grade 2. She is one of the many horses that shows a lot of interest in running to the front, but he last race showed some ability to track. Doesn’t stick out, but enough positive to make her a contender to watch.
Dame Dorothy is going to be one of the horses that will be tracking and while her figures look a step below some in here, Pletcher has done his usual expert job of bringing her up to this race in top form. She’s won 7 of 11 lifetime, and is 4 of 5 at the distance, and considering she’s been almost exclusively in graded races, she is in the mix.
La Verdad has been untouchable in 2015. She won a state-bred, essentially public workout last week, but I don’t think that race took much out of her at all. She has run figures that would top this field most days at six and six and a half, but at seven furlongs she’s suspect. She’s tried the distance twice and only has a second to show for it. She’s a quality mare, and becomes more dangerous now that she showed some ability to press off the pace. If I had to say, I’d look for a lesser share.
Artemis Agrotera is an extraordinarily talented horse that obviously has some physical issues. She’s been off since last year’s F&M Sprint where she disappointed on the Santa Anita Dirt. Mike Hushion is a quality trainer, and he looks like he has her ready for the return here. Obviously taking this on a little bit of faith, but I’m not sure you can eliminate her based on past performance.
The morning line has Cavorting as the favorite followed by Stontastic, La Verdad, and Judy the Beauty. I can’t see Stonetastic coming off an OC $40K at Parx and a second in a restricted stakes at Saratoga. She’s 0 for 3 this year and I’m have a really hard time trying to figure out how she could be the second choice. While Judy the Beauty has a win and a second in the last two renewals of this race, she doesn’t look like the same horse to me. I’ll make her a pass. There is a lot of speed signed on, although La Verdad and Taris both looked like they were prepping to track instead of fighting for the front. Cavorting has a major test and I’m not solid that she’ll pass with flying colors. Dame Dorothy and Taris both look better than their odds. Artemis Agrotera is the X-factor horse and at 20-1 if she runs to her lifetime best she is great value.
Race 6 F&M Turf
Another race that can give handicappers brain cramps. We’ll look first at the Euro horses, and then the top Americans.
Legatissimo is the top Euro in this field and that is enough to earn her favoritism. She is good at the distance, likes the soft turf, and has the rave reviews from her trainer. While favorites have not had great success in this race, she looks about as strong as a shipper can look.
Miss France has struggled a bit finding the winners circle, and she has not started at today’s distance, but she has been racing with top flight fillies and mares. Andre Fabre and Frankie Dettori are two of the best Europe has, and that elevates her chances. A bit of faith necessary, but not to be ignored.
Secret Gesture had been running pretty much nothing but Group races in Euorpe, and was taken down in the Beverly D in a constroversial DQ. She is by top turf sire Galileo, meaning she shouldn’t have any trouble negotiating the distance. She was only two lengths behind the top choice in a Group 1 in June and given the odds difference, she looks like one to consider.
Stephanie’s Kitten is one of America’s top turf mares and Chad Brown has brought her up to the race perfectly. She ran with some good horses in the Beverly D and looked good winning the Flower Bowl. If the turf stays soft her chances get upgraded.
Sentiero Italia has been one of the top three year old turf fillies this year. She did not have a great trip in the QE II but still showed interest, closing for third. Before than she won a couple of Grade 2 races. She looks very tractable and I like that she has a race over the track.
Dacita came from Chile to win at first asking in the U.S. in the Ballston Spa. That was an excellent effort, and while the record isn’t as plump as I might have liked, that professional run in the Ballston Spa has to give her consideration. Well, that and the fact that Chad Brown and Javier Castellano team up.
Queen’s Jewel is coming to this race off three straight Group 1 races. She only won one of them, but the connections are quality. I’m giving her a small shot at a minor award.
This is a tale of one standout horse and a whole lot of potential upsetters. Legatissimo looks better than anything else in the race on paper, but she wouldn’t be the first Euro to not run her race. Still, she has to be on most of your horizontals and verticals. Miss France, Secret Gesture and Stephanie’s Kitten all have legitimate upset chances.
Race 7 Sprint
The Sprint is always the most confusing race for me. If I think there is too much speed, one horse goes out and has its own way. I’ll admit I’ve had less success in this race than about any other. Admitedly, I have no real insight in this race. The only knock against Private Zone is the outside post. He’s got a series of figures, any one of which could dust this field. He’s been working well at Keeneland and he’s got a huge turn of speed. His losses this year came to Tonalist and Honor Code, exceptional stakes horses. There is no horse of their caliber in this race. At 5/2 he actually might be value. Runhappy is the top three year old in the race. He won the King’s Bishop in the summer and came back with a win against older in the Phoenix at Keeneland, despite having his saddle slip and breaking slowly. Improving three year olds are always dangerous, and he looks as dangerous as they come. Of the rest, Wild Dude will be there to pick up the pieces should the frontrunners fail to hold. He’s four of six at the distance and has only been keeping company with graded horses. My B/C horses are Salutos Amigos, Limousine Liberal and Masochistic. Salutos Amigos isn’t the same horse he was last year but comes into this race in the best shape of the year, having run a close second to division leader Rock Fall. Limousine Liberal looks like another improving three year old and that merits consideration. Masochistic has thrived since moving from the care of A C Avila to Ron Ellis. He’s been beaten twice by Wild Dude, but he’s been close. Not without a chance.
Race 8 Mile
Like most of the turf races, this comes down to the (often B Team) Euros vs. the North Americans. There are a couple of very stong looking Euros and some intersting Americans.
Esoterique has been in nothing but Group 1 and 2 races this year with two wins, two seconds and a third. Both of her wins came at the mile, one against the boys. She lost to the primo sprinter Muhaarar by only a half length and Solow, widely thought of as Europe’s top miler, but beat a top notch group of fillies and mares in the Sun Chariot states a month ago. She generally runs toward the back, but don’t be fooled – she has push button speed if she needs it. While she is second on the morning line, she looks the one to beat for me.
Make Believe is a three year old colt with only 6 starts so he is definitely eligible to improve. He comes in off a win in the Prix de la Foret, the same race Goldikova used to prep for her mile wins. His pace number in that race was spectacular, and I expect that is what induced Fabre to bring him here. Fabre trains both Make Believe and Esoterique, and may actually think a little bit more of this runner, but in any case it looks like Fabre has the inside track here.
Tepin has not yet raced against males but her races against females have been excellent. She has four wins and two seconds this year, and her race in the First Lady at Keeneland was powerful. Trainer Mark Casse is super high on the horse and don’t be scared away by the fact she is a filly. Some top fillies like Miesque and Goldikova have been winners here. At 12-1 morning line she could give the Euros a run for their money.
Grand Arch comes off a win in the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland. He looks like he is at the top of his game and looks like he loves the Keeneland course. He’s got a big hill to climb against the Euros but he’s not likely to ever have a better chance.
Time Test is another Euro three year old looking to cap a good season. He has a win in his one mile race and was not that far behind some of the top Euros in the Judmonte Stakes. He is just another of the European contingent that wouldn’t be a surprise in the winner’s circle.
Mondialiste is a veteran campaigner who shipped over to run in the Woodbine Mile a month and a half ago. He came from the clouds to win that race, and while he doesn’t have the Grade 1 credentials of some of the other Euros he does have North American recency.
All in all it is hard to ignore the collective class and ability of the European shippers. The two Andre Fabre horses are both top candidates here, but both Tepin and Grand Arch are worthy competitors. Given they will both go off at double digit odds, they should be considered in both the win slot and exactas.
Race 9 Juvenile
Lots of contenders in this race, and as I’ve already mentioned, two year olds can improve by leaps and bounds from race to race. We’re going to look first for horses that have negotiated turns (which often eliminates the Euros) and we’re especially going to be soft on horses that look more like sprinters.
Exaggerator was second in the Breeders Futurity. Despite having good wet track breeding and getting track that was listed as muddy, the surface played more like a wet fast. He got a good trip, tracking in 5th or 6th down the backstretch, made a bold move coming out of the far turn and simply could not hold off the winner, Brody’s Cause. I think having that experience will be a big help, and being a Curlin means the two turns should be right in his wheelhouse.
Brody’s Cause made an impressive close to win the Breeders Futurity, coming from near the back of the pack to run down everyone. He made that same run in his maiden race and will certainly have to make it again today. Although Keeneland tends to favor closers in these races, he will have a lot of work to do. Can’t leave him out but he’s not the sort of horse I favor enthusiastically.
Nyquist is coming from the loaded Reddam stable, trained by Doug O’Neill. O’Neill has been hot lately, winning the SA training title with three winners on Sunday. Nyquist has a lot going for him. He’s undefeated with two Grade 1 wins, and he’s been around two turns. As much as I am a fan of O’Neill, I think the horse may be more useful sprinting than routing. I won’t leave him off my tickets, but he won’t be on top of many.
Riker comes from north of the border out of one of Canada’s top juvenile races, the Grey. He’s another undefeated colt with improving numbers and looks to be coming into the race in top form.
Greenpointcrusader is the Champagne winner, and that race has been productive in terms of producing top contenders. The sloppy track may have given him an edge, but I like the style and I love the way he’s taken to Keeneland. Certainly eligible to make the jump to the winner’s circle in this race.
Cocked and Loaded is a bit ambiguous for me. On the one hand he is an improving two year old with a good style and competitive numbers. He’s been around two turns, but his last race was seven weeks ago and I favor the horses with a prep a little closer to the race. Not without a chance, but at the bottom of my contender list.
Race 10 Turf
Let’s face it. When the top Euros show up, the North Americans are up against it, and with Golden Horn in the race one of Europe’s top turf horses is in the race. You can usually tell when the Americans have a chance, like last year with Main Sequence. Even so, he had to beat the very talented Flintshire. I’m not sure there is a Main Sequence in this year’s crop, so it looks like Golden Horn and a whole bunch of other contenders.
Golden Horn has perhaps one flaw – he won the Arc and it has been the case that not only do horses pointed at the Arc peak there, but not a one of the Arc winners has come to the Breeders Cup and won. That’s not to say running in the Arc is a kiss of death – 16% of horses who were in the Arc and didn’t win have won the Turf. If you look at Golden Horn’s figures, the Arc represented a maximum effort. So assuming this was Gosden’s goal, he may actually be up against it in the Turf. On the other hand, if any Euro trainer has an understanding of U.S. racing, it is Gosden. There is not much to talk about. If Golden Horn runs his best race, everyone else is running for second. You certainly can’t leave him out, but if you single him you’re going against a lot of history.
Big Blue Kitten has had an excellent 2015. He’s been no worse than second in four Grade 1’s and a Grade 3, His figures top the American contingent and his style is classic for the mile and a half Turf. While Joe Bravo is generally not my favorite jockey, he’s ridden this horse flawlessly, matching Chad Brown’s training. All the second choices after Golden Horn are 8-1, but I have a feeling this one will go lower.
Slumber finished second to Big Blue Kitten last out at Belmont. signaling he is in top form. The other Chad Brown running has volleyed with Big Blue Kitten all year, beating him in the Manhattan and finishing right behind him two other times. He’s good enough to win, and I’m sure Brown has him wound up. One small concern – his race on a yielding track in the Arlington Million was not good, but in all fairness he did not have the best of trips in that race. I’d look for more than 8-1 as the final odds.
Found is much more representative of the type of Euro horse that has had success in the Turf. She’s been running against males the second half of the year with some success. In seven starts this year she has only one win, but five seconds. She finished ninth in the Arc after being bumped at the quarter pole, but was only three lengths out of second. She came back with a second in the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot. I’m not thrilled O’Brien decided to give her another race after a tough Arc but he acquited himself well. She gets Lasix today. I think she’s not quite 8-1, but looks second best of the Euros.
Twilight Eclipse has had a lot of close but no Cigar races. He has been exclusively in Grade 1’s since May, but other than the Man O’War he’s been an also ran. He’s a good horse and if he throws in an A effort he may have a chance to be the top American.
The Pizza Man is a deep closer that has done well in Graded races and at the distance. I think he’s a cut below the horses listed above, but it’s hard to not give the Arlington Million winner some consideration.
This race is pretty easy strategically. Either you buy Golden Horn is the best horse in the race by far, or you believe the curse of the Arc winner stays in effect. It was a while ago, but Dancing Brave was at least as stong looking going into this race and he flopped. If Golden Horn doesn’t do it, the best Americans look like Big Blue Kitten and Slumber. Found, Twilight Eclipse and The Pizza Man all have shots if the top three falter.
Race 11 Classic
The Classic is shaping up to be a classic race. The Triple Crown winner, a super mare, and some top older horses. This race will be dependent on a lot of things, most especially pace. Update: Beholder has been scratched meaning American Pharoah is lone speed, at least on paper. This could change the entire pace scenario. If there was another possible horse that may have put pressure on AP it waas Smooth Roller, and he got scratched. AP will be odds on, and it looks like it may be his race to lose.
American Pharoah is an extraordinary horse, and this comes from someone who never thought he would make the mile and a quarter, much less the Belmont. He has one big advantage in this race – he is the clear front runner and Victor Espinoza has experience with being challenged. I don’t think he’ll make the same mistake twice, and as long as he can get the horse to relax, he can control the pace of the race. Do I necessarily think he is the best? No, but he is the fastest and will have to be caught and that’s no easy task. I believe in losing the Travers he showed just how good a horse he is. I’ll be honest – I wanted to make AP a bet against, but it’s clear Frosted would be committing suicide to go with him again. If Beholder goes and they duel each other into submission, there are a couple of horses who will benefit. Of course if Beholder is the challenger, I would expect AP to bury her the same way he did Frosted. All things considered, he’ll be in much better condition than he was in the Travers and I expect we will see the absolute best he has to offer. If everything goes as well as it can for him, I think he has a high probability of winning, even if he is not the most talented horse in the race.
Tonalist has been swapping wins with a couple of others in here. His race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup was exceptional and he’s not been out of the money this year. It looks to me like Clement has Tonalist right where he wants him for this race. He’ll need to get position from the rail, but Johnny V is about as experienced as you can get in the saddle. He’s as honest as they come and has plenty of talent.
Effinex is my other interesting horse. He looked awesome in the Suburban, but in the Woodward he was clearly having trouble. He was fractious at the gate and left his energy there. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup he was bumped at the start and had to run wide. I think he is a better horse than the 30-1 morning line might indicate and could be the surprise winner. He’ll be on my horizontal tickets.
Honor Code is a plodder likely to close from the back of the pack. While he sounds like a good selection in a mile and a quarter race, he hasn’t had a successful trip at the distance. Still, he’s been running with the big dogs and a classy horse. That’s enough to give him some chance to be the champ.
Beholder doesn’t make it into the serious contenders for me. I know Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra were fillies that won this race, but I just don’t see how she gets the pace scenario with American Pharoah in the race, or how she outruns Tonalist, Effinex and Honor Code in the stretch. I may be wrong, but at best I may have her in some back hole.
For those of you who read Horseplayer Magazine before its unfortunate demise you might have recognized that for the last three years of publication I was the designated handicapper for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. As many of my followers know, I am probably most prolific handicapping on the turf. Turf racing is not simply about the finishing fraction, but it is a lot about pace. This year’s Breeder’s Cup starts with the Juvenile Turf.
Race 6 Juvenile Turf
The Juvenile Turf is an ultra competitive affair this year. I’m looking for a few different keys in this race. First, I’d like to see some experience, say 3-5 races. For the North American Horses, I want a runner that showed well in the better known preps – the Summer, the With Anticipation, and the Pilgrim. While the Bourbon was a Grade 3, I’m not sure this year it attracted the same quality field as the others, but since it was at Keeneland, it can’t be ignored. Let’s go through the contenders.
Azar was the winner of the With Anticipation and a hard luck runner-up in the Pilgrim. He bobbled at the start of the race, was in the five path around the turn and dug in gamely to lose by a short neck to Isotherm, who chose to pass this race. After the start it looked to me like Velazquez was having a hard time relaxing him, and that could be a little worrisome. However, if you look at the race shape, the horses running 1, 2, 3, 5 early finished 5th, 8th, 9th and 10th, while the first four across the line were 8th, (Azar), 9th and 7th. In other words, Azar held up very well. He doesn’t look like a 10-1 horse to me, and only the need to lead Manhattan Dan, Airoforce, and Hollywood Don seem to be the front running types. He should get a good tracking position and should be the first one to move gunning for home.
Cymric is the John Gosden entrant here and Gosden has had great success in this race. He’s not afraid to bring one of his better colts to this race. Cymric just missed in a Group 1 at Longchamp and was in the money in a Group 3 in August. In the Longchamp race he was coming fast at the end and lost to a horse that has three wins in three starts. He’s got a lot of positives and is the must-use Euro.
Camelot Kitten was in one of the outer posts in the Bourbon and wound up with an ugly trip. He was off a little slow, was bumped but in the stretch looked spectacular, closing powerfully to nab the place. He’s stuck outside again, but with a better break he could be a big danger. Chad Brown is quickly becoming the number one turf trainer in the east and given the breeding (Kitten’s Joy) he should be both apt on a firm or soft course and good at the distance.
Conquest Daddyo was the winner of the Summer Stakes at Woodbine. He was off slow in that race, but showed good patience and was drawing away late. Mark Casse is a top flight conditioner and the Woodbine race has always been a good indicator of contenders in this race. He’s one I could put on top.
Airoforce ran well in the Bourbon. He came out of the 13 post, rushed quickly into contention, stayed wide most of the race and looked strong pulling free in the stretch. His figure isn’t as high as some of the other contenders, but he is eligible to improve and if he does he has a realistic chance. I’d be happier if he had another race or two, but I can’t pitch him out of hand.
Shogun is one of the two Aidan O’Brien runners expected to start in this race. In general, you don’t expect the Euro’s to bring their A Team to the Juvenile races, and Shogun does look a cut below the top Euro two-year olds. He’s raced in a Group 1 and Group 2 and today he adds blinkers and Lasix. I’d see him as a minor contender, but I might use him in some backholes.
Birchwood fits at least part of the pattern of a Breeder’s Cup contender. He’s experienced, he’s a Group 2 winner, and Group 1 placed. However, he doesn’t have experience around two turns, and his pace figures are not up to the level of some others in here. He won’t be on top of my tickets, but he’s another I can use underneath.
This is definitely a competitive race, especially considering there are some horses with big eligibility to improve. There are a lot of contenders, but I think the solid horses are Azar and Cymric. I might be wrong, but I have a really strong positive feeling about Camelot Kitten, and at the potential odds I can imagine making a win bet. In the second tier of contenders is Conquest Daddyo and Airoforce. Birchwood and Shogun would be potential underneath horses.
Race 7 Dirt Mile
In the 2014 Dirt Mile, defending champion Goldencents ran a powerful race to repeat. In that race Vicar’s In Trouble sprinted fast out of the gate, leaving Godencents with work to do to get to the front. He drove up the rail and had the lead by the time they hit the turn, eventually burying a stubborn Vicar’s In Trouble in fractions of 22, 44:4, and 109.1. Coming out of the turn it looked like Tapiture had the measure of Goldencents. Those were killing fractions and only the classiest of horses would have even had a chance to stay. In mid-stretch Godencents looked like he might be wobbling a bit and as Tapiture came up on him he showed the heart of a champion, digging down deep, finding another gear and pulling away at the wire. Goldencents was the very definition of class – running a fast pace and sticking to the end. Is there a horse like that in this year’s version?
Liam’s Map may very well be the shortest priced favorite in this year’s Breeder’s Cup and he has a lot of what Goldencents had – speed and finish. His figures stand out over this field and Todd Pletcher has brought him to this race perfectly. Had it not been for an other-worldy run by Honor Code in the Whitney he’d be coming into the race unblemished in 2015. The question is not whether he is the fastest horse in the race, but if there is any horse that can beat him. He’s 3 for 3 at the mile distance and it will take a super effort to deny him 4 for 4.
Red Vine has come to hand for Christophe Clement and is another coming to the race in peak form. In his last race, the key prep Kelso Mile, he stumbled at the break and was squeezed back. Instead of backing out he worked hard to finishing second, beating top stakes runner Honor Code in the process. There is a ton of speed in the race, and much like Tapiture last year, Red Vine looks he might benefit from that.
Tapiture only has one win since giving Goldencents a run for his money, but it was a month ago in the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill. Since then he’s been working steadily at Keeneland. I have to believe Asmussen has been pointing Tapiture to this race all year in an effort to get redemption for last year’s near miss. I’m looking for him to run that same race and we’ll see if Liam’s Map is more vulnerable than Goldencents was last year.
Lea has been in nothing but graded races for the last two years, winning his only three starts on the dirt at the mile distance. Clement initially was pointing the horse at the turf mile, but decided the weather might not cooperate so he elected to send him here. He looks like he took really well to the Keeneland dirt. Perhaps a step slower than the top choice, but still a threat off his best.
Wicked Strong has been knocking around with top graded runners for a while, although in 18 starts he has only produced 3 wins. He was third to Liam’s Map in the Woodward and second to Tonalist in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and his last win came as a three year old in the Jim Dandy. He’s certainly a talented colt, but it would hard to be confident given his lack of wins.
There is nothing on paper to suggest Liam’s Map should not win this race, but then again Goldencents last year looked equally unbeatable as well, and Tapiture gave him a scare. If Liam’s Map falls, the two horses most likely to pick up the pieces are Red Vine and Tapiture. Lea and Wicked Strong seem most likely destined for minor awards.
Race 8 Juvenile Fillies Turf
This race has not been kind to the European Runners, with only one win in the seven runnings of this event. The European fillies have more last place finishes than top three. In fact, the only win was the year the Breeder’s Cup disallowed Lasix in the Juvenile races. Last year’s winner, Lady Eli, was a solid favorite and proved much the best for Chad Brown. In reality, very few of the top Euro runners are pointed at this race, instead opting for the more lucrative European Oaks. The key Euro preps are the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp and the Shadwell Fillies Mile at Ascot, while the key American preps are the Natalma at Woodbine, the Miss Grillo at Belmont, and the Jessamine at Keeneland. The Surfer Girl at Santa Anita may someday be the equivalent of those races, but the reality is that the best turf fillies are racing back east.
Catch a Glimpse was the winner of the Natalma in wire to wire fashion in a good finishing time. One of the advantages the Americans have is that they have already negotiated two turns, while the Euros have mainly run on the straight. She’s in a good spot and should be once again leading the field from the start. Mark Casse has had good success sending his juvenile fillies to the BC turf. She may have to fight off challenges from Ruby Notion and Nemoralia to her outside, but going in she looks like the one to beat, but certainly doesn’t look unbeatable.
Harmonize was the winner of the Jessamine at Keeneland and that race has been a productive prep. In that race she was shuffled to the back of the field, circled everyone and nailed the victory, a really impressive run. She won the P G Johnson, Saratoga’s top filly turf race, in her penultimate start. Bill Mott is well known as taking some time to get his horses in racing shape, and the fact that he had this one ready from the get go is a very positive sign. She is the top U.S. horse in the race.
Alice Springs is one of the top two Euros in the race. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has not had good luck bringing his runners to the Juvenile Filles Turf, finishing poorly with a number of runners that came in looking good. . She hesitated at the start in the Moyglare but still finished well, running behind the top two fillies in Europe, Minding and Ballydoyle.. In the subsequent two races at Newmarket she finished a close fourth in the Group 1 Cheverley Park Stakes and then dusted a field in the restricted Tattersalls Millions stakes. Like many of the Euros, she is getting a dose of Lasix before the race, and while she’s never been the mile, her breeding suggests it shouldn’t be a problem.
Illuminate goes for Richard Hannon and Frankie Dettori. She’s ranked as the fifth best juvenile filly in Europe, but like Alice Springs she has never been in a route or around turns. Unlike Alice Springs, her breeding is far more suspect at the mile. With the connections she can’t be ignored.
Thrilled is one of a couple coming out of the Miss Grillo a month ago. She finished behind Harmonize in the P G Johnson after having a small amount of trouble at the start, and barely missed in the Miss Grillo. She has a good running style for this race and she’s improving with every start. This is not Pletcher’s speciality but he’s still a quality trainer.
Tin Type Gal won the Miss Grillo directly after breaking her maiden. In that race she finished strongly to barely nip Thrilled. Motion has brought her slowly to hand and she’s one of a few with the figures to make an impact.
Despite having two Euros in the top four, I’m very wary given their overall record. Catch a Glimpse comes in off the fastest race, but it remains to be seen if her front running style will work at KEE. I’m disappointed not to have any Chad Brown horses in the top group, but breaking from the outside posts means they will have to overcome difficult trips. Still, Pricedtoperfection was not far behind Tin Type Gal in her maiden race and may turn out to be a good one in the future. Harmonize is another very solid choice, and may turn out to be the value. This should be a good race, and given the past history, a big price is not totally out of the question.
Race 9 The Distaff
The Distaff has produced a number of Eclipse Award winners, including last year’s dominant filly, Untapable. Unfortunately she will not be back to defend her title, so this year we will crown a new distaff champion. I’m looking for solid Grade 1 winners, especially those that have shown well at the distance.
Got Lucky is one of my upset selections in the Distaff. No question Pletcher has her wound up for this race and she is the best of the closers in the race. She was able to negotiate a ground saving trip last time out, and she may have a tougher time coming out of the 12 post, but given the amount of speed in the race she may be able to find the spot she wants early. She’s five of seven first or second at the distance, and showed a keen liking for Keeneland in the Spinster last out.
I’m a Chatterbox won the Cotillion at Parx last out, the same race that prepped Ashado and Untapable for their wins in the distaff. Although the record says she hasn’t won at the distance, she beat Curlina in the CCA Oaks only to be disqualified to second. She showed that wasn’t a fluke by once again beating Curlina in the Alabama. She broke her maiden at Keeneland and has been working well in preparation for this race. She’s a Grade 1 horse and should be in a perfect spot for the stretch run.
Sheer Drama might have been more of a contender had she not gotten stuck on the far outside. In her last ten races she’s finished out of the money exactly once, and this year has not been worse than second. She’s 4 of 5 first or second at the distance. Her last two Grade 1 wins in the Personal Ensign and the Delaware Handicap have given her figures that would top the field if she can repeat them. We’ll see if she can find the right spot and get the best of the field.
Wedding Toast is a tepid 4-1 favorite, speaking to the competitiveness of this race. Kieran McLaughlin has coaxed two Grade 1 wins out of the horse in her last two races, but both were against short fields. I’m somewhat ambiguous about the horse. On the one hand, she has run some good figures in the two Grade 1 wins, but they aren’t head and shoulders above some others in the field. She’s won all three of her mile and an eighth starts, the last two in wire to wire fashion. However, in this race, there are loads of potential challengers for the front. Stopchargingmaria, Calamity Kate, and Yahilwa may all be fighting for the front. Wedding Toast is a quality filly, but she’ll be a bet against in the top spot for me.
Stopchargingmaria in my opinion is the most overrated of the contenders. She spent 2014 ducking Untapable, and has not beaten any of the top contenders this year. Plus, she’s up against it in terms of running style. She’s no better than an underneath horse in the verticals for me.
Curalina finished behind Wedding Toast in the Beldame, and behind I’m a Chatterbox in the Alabama and the CCA Oaks, although she got moved up when I’m a Chatterbox was DQ’d in CCA Oaks. She’s an improving three year old and they are always dangerous, but I’m thinking more a lesser award.
Todd Pletcher has three contenders in the race and I’m going with Got Lucky. His regular rider, Irad Ortiz, gets the mount and considering there are a slew of horses that seem to prefer pushing the pace, her closing style may give her an advantage. In the verticals I don’t believe there are a lot of horses with prospects to get the win, but there are a number of horses that could finish in the back holes. This is a race that might have a huge pay, especially with the morning line favorite, Wedding Toast, and the third choice, Stopchargingmaria, being suspect in my opinion. I’m a Chatterbox and Sheer Drama both have good running styles for this race. They don’t need the leed, and they have shown heart in the stretch. This is one tough race and I’d work very hard on a betting strategy.
Bonus: This four race sequence is a Pick 4. My A, B, C horses are
This will be it for the week. The rest of my handicapping time will be spent working on the Breeders Cup races. I will try to have Friday posted on Thursday and Saturday posted on Friday. Just the numbers today.
Race 1 3-4-7 C=2 V=2
Race 2 2-6-3 C=3 V=3
Race 3 1-5-6 C=2 V=2
Race 4 10-8-7 C=2 V=2
Race 5 6-5-3 (8) C=2 V=2
The 8 in parentheses indicates a horse that has a lot of in the money finishes relative to wins and can be used in the vertical bets.
Race 6 7-2-8 C=1 V=2
Race 7 2-9-6 C=1 V=1
Race 8 1-5-8 C=3 V=2
Race 9 7-6-11-3 C=1 V=2