*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1      2-4-3

Race 2      3-4-5

Race 3      14-7-10

Race 4      2-7-1

Race 5      1A-4-7

Race 6      8-2-5

Race 7      2-7-4

Race 8      2-4-7-1

Race 9      7-4-1A

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1      4-6-1

In a race with a fairly sad group of entrants, I looked to find something more solid than Jazz Player but landed on him anyway. He should have the controlling speed, and with the drop and price should be able to hold to the wire. Chief Assignment ran well on the AQU dirt last out in his first start in seven months. While he’s earned most of his way to professional maiden, this is a weak field and his last race figure says competitive. The David Cannizo entry both look competitive in this field. Promise and Hope is dropping to his lowest price and Mischeivous One had an excuse in his last when dropped to this level.

Race 2      6-1-5

Unstoppable You was claimed last out by Robert Barbara who is not strong first off the claim, but he’s got great front running ability and seems to be in top shape. Was with much better earlier in the year and may be on the way back up. The Jacobsen entry both have outs here. He’s been scratching one of the entry horses lately, but I’ll stick with the one that remains if he does scratch one. Mack Miller won at $14K two back and ran evenly despite hesitating at the start last out when jumped for $20K. He’s in the mix here.

Race 3      3-5-6

Drama King has been doing fairly well in state-bred stakes and optional claimers, and has the figures to win in this field. Readtheprospectus just won and was claimed by DJ. Jumps up a little today and DJ still runs 25% first off the claim. Has been with better in the recent past and may be up to handling this field. One Sided hasn’t been out of the money in his last 8 races, puts blinkers on today and figures to get a good trip. If he wins it would be no surprise.

Race 4      5-10-4

Mind Magic ran well on the AQU turf last out and while I couldn’t give him a 4/5 chance here, he does look best in this field. Three’s Are Wild ran well in the early part of the race on the AQU turf, fading badly at the end. But he probably needed the race and you have to respect speed on this turf. Holy Week runs his best on the turf and has some liking for the AQU turf. Has got outs at 8-1 ML.

Race 5      9-7-3

Winter Wish was claimed by John Parisella two back and was moved up to a state-bred allowance where she ran a new top. Parisella has been quietly having a good year, winning at a 27% overall, and having 100% of his runners in the money at AQU. Hard to go against him off the drop. Enduring Touch has three place finishes in a row at this level and consistent figures. Looks competitive if she develops an interest in winning. Kitty Ride drops down from state-bred allowances to the claiming ranks for this one. Last race was the first in a while and was on the turf. She’s back on the dirt today and off her best has good outs.

Race 6      2-6-7

Absatootly ran well as an outsider first time out and returns at the same level with a figure that doesn’t need much improvement to be the winner here. Super Allison finished behind a couple of these last out but should have learned some lessons in that race. Expect improvement today. Bea Bea showed some interest on the sloppy BEL dirt and has prepped well for this race. A repeat of the BEL fig puts her right in the mix.

Race 7      10-6-3-9

Comes the Dream was claimed last out by DJ when he dropped to his lowest level in the last two years. Prior to that he had been turfing with some solid OC $62K horses. He looks better suited for the mile distance and off his best looks to be a winner. No Texting has good early speed and just missed last out. Looks to be in good shape for this affair. Sun Worshipper has two thirds in three tries on the AQU turf and his last race was a new top for him. American Guest is another that has a good race on the AQU turf and has been competitive at higher levels. Turf numbers look competitive.

Race 8      8-2-6

The New York Stallion series at seven furlongs in the Sunday feature. Empire Dreams has been running exclusively in this state bred stakes and has field-topping figures. 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and on the AQU dirt. Has the best closing kick in the field. Loki’s Vengeance has good early foot and has a win over the AQU dirt. & furlongs may stretch his ability but he has been competitive with these sorts before. John’s Island is another with competitive numbers, some aptitide at AQU and ability with this level.

Race 9      2-7-1-3

The finale pits 2 year old maidens at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. E J’s Legacy made a big  close last out at huge odds. A repeat should be enough to take this field. Ranger’s Coming looked good first time with state-bred maidens on the AQU turf. Figure says he’s a major contender.Sax Change goes for the fifth time. He’s shown an aptitude on the AQU turf and has run consistent numbers. Yummy Bear puts the blinkers on in search of his first win.

*My new book, the Kingpins of Riverbend, is now available at Amazon.com. It is set in a fictional town along the Mohawk River in upstate New York in 1968. It is about a group of seven pinboys at a local bowling alley who in one way or another are confronting their futures against the backdrop of a town desperately trying to recapture the prosperity of the past. The pinboys include the thoughtful Gianni, called G, the book’s narrator; his irrepressible best friend, Vinnie; Charley Horse, a girl who just moved to town after losing her mother; Borneo, a Vietnam veteran broken by the war and coming home to an ungrateful country; Danny, a mentally challenged adult with the mind of a child; Albert, an alcoholic haunted by his failure as a soldier; and Crackers, the overweight kid who has always been picked on. The corrupt town boss, Public Works Director Tony Gallo, wants to tear out the old downtown and put an indoor mall in its place, partially because he wants to see the city revitalized, but mostly because he is interested in lining his own pockets. Unfortunately, he is having trouble getting investors excited about the project. He comes up with the idea of having a bowling match with Riverbend’s best bowler, Marcus Aurelius Pandolfo, known by everyone as Mingo, and the world’s best professional bowler, P.G. Peckham as a way to reinvigorate enthusiasm for Riverbend and his plan. The book winds between the lives of the pinboys and the machinations of Tony Gallo, with both stories coming together in the match of the century and the outcome a surprise for everyone. Check it out if you have a chance.*

Race 1      9-2-6-5

Sherry’s Miracle ran his first two races on the turf and switched to the dirt last out. He looked good in the move to the dirt and seems more apt at the sprint distance. Based on that last race he is as good as anything in the field and the 10-1 ML is attractive. Gehrig lost to monster runner Spooked Out but managed to hold second. He’s well bred for the distance and it looks like the competition might be a little softer. Hit It Once More flopped at AQU last out but before that had been knocking. Good looking drill in prep for this one. Cloontia is a half to Wicked Strong and has been working decently in prep for this one. Sire is around 14% first time. Worth thinking about for James Jerkens who is decent with debut runners.

Race 2      5-2-6-3

Between the Lines is a consistent horse, always somewhere close at the finish. His last race was his first in a while, and he stayed competitive to the end. His figures from earlier this year would dominate the field and if he got what he needed from his last start he’s the one to beat. Altar Boy won at first asking for Todd Pletcher and returns in search of a win against winners. Some improvement second time out puts him in the mix. Loose on the Town returns fresh after being drubbed by BC Sprint winner Runhappy in the King’s Bishop. His penultimate race he ran into Waco, a horse that ran lights out at the Spa. His workouts suggest he’s ready to roll and would be no surprise in the winner’s circle. Possillicious has good speed and a tendency to finish in the money.

Race 3      1-4-2

Flora Dora finished a closing second in the G3 Tempted on this surface. Is one of a few in this race with the credentials to win. Mo d’Amour goes second out for Pletcher/Castellano. Given Pletcher has three going in this race he’s got big chances to walk away with a win. Mo d’Amour looks speediest of the three and has a nice work in prep for this. Lewis Bay is the Chad Brown offering. She dominated a field last out, running the last eight in a tick over 12 seconds. She looks ready to roll.

Race 4      1-6-9

Very tough betting race. Of the horses that have started, Inspector Lynley looks to have the edge. He’s got a start at the distance and McGaughey is 23% with second start maidens. His first start showed a closing style, so if he stays with that he’ll need pace to run at. Snag is the Pletcher/Castellano entrant and is another with a closing style. Big Beyer number ensures he’ll get plenty of action, but off his last he isn’t perhaps as dominating as that number suggests. He’ll be tough but is not invincible. Annals of Time is a first timer for Chad Brown who is a solid 22% with debut runners. Irad is his go-to guy and the works look like typical Brown.

Race 5      3-4-6

This edition of the Remsen has a number of talented runners signed up. Mohaymen was a $2.2 million purchase and has been handled conservatively by McLauhglin. His first race showed good promise and his next start was a convincing win in the Grade 2 Nashua. His first two starts were made without Lasix, but he gets it today. The talent is there, the distance breeding is there, and the style looks good. Flexibility ran a solid second to the top choice in the Nashua and he looks second best again today. Gift Box is the other Chad Brown runner. He broke his maiden at BEL in the slop, and he will be a contender if he runs that race this time.

Race 6      8-9-1

Wicked Freud has one out of the money finish in four starts and looks to be improving. Mile distance shouldn’t be a problem. Hirschbein had been off since Saratoga, came back with a decent run at AQU, and puts blinkers on for today’s run. Should enjoy the cutback to a mile. Island Therapy has made a living finishing second, but is coming off a win at AQU at today’s distance. Some outs.

Race 7      3-9-1

Wonder Gal spent the year struggling against Grade 1 and 2 company until finally topping a state-bred stakes. She’s back in graded company today, but the field looks like one she can handle. Forever Unbridled is another that has been slighly overwhelmed in Grade 1 races. She ran up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, laid off until October and finished a close  fifth in the Grade 2 Raven Run at Keeneland. Gets Johnny V for today’s run. Peace and War failed in the BC distaff, but is another that has gotten a sniff in Graded races this year. Figures definitely indicate competitiveness.

Race 8      6-2-1

With the scratch of Plainview Orino gets an advantage by having less competition on the front end. He was outless against the top state bred turfers like Lubash, King Kreesa and Kharafa in the Mohawk and the West Point, but is in a much more amenable spot today. Has a win and a place in three tries on the AQU turf.  Bombaguia was off over a year and a half until returning at BEL in September. His first two races were fairly close figurewise to his previous efforts before the layoff, and at 20-1 ML I’m thinking about taking a chance that Kimmel has brought the horse all the way back. Moutin won his first start in the U.S. at AQU on the turf, but since then has been in and out. He’s 4 of 6 at the mile distance and McLaughlin is 23% off the medium layoff, but using jockey DeSousa (28 0 3 7) may keep me from using the horse heavier.

Race 9      7-3-5

This is a competitive version of the Cigar Mile. Private Zone is the obvious speed and other than Marking it looks like he gets to set his own fractions. If the track is at all speed favoring, Private Zone is a major danger of going wire to wire. Red Vine has been matriculating with graded milers for the last half of the year and was a decent third to the outstanding Liam’s Map in the BC Mile. Certainly has the credentials to compete here. Tonalist has a win at a mile in the Westchester. Interestingly puts the blinkers on, and his win in the Westchester was with the shades. You can’t give him too much blame for the second in the Met Mile, but he did beat Private Zone in that race. Tonalist would be no surprise here.

Race 10   5-4-7

The finale is a state-bred MSW and is wide open. Kitty Maddnes is one of a few horses coming out of the October 30  race. The pace in that race was not particularly fast but she did manage to make up quite a few lengths. Another race not filled with pace, but she did it once and could do it again. Alabama Bound broke well back in that same 10/30 MSW but also showed some close. Mott is well known to not do well with first timers, but second time out he is much stronger. With a better break she might be a more prominent factor. Preying Mantis has shown an ability to break and go to the front. Her race on October 9 was better than looked, and she flopped again next out, but that race was off the turf  and she looked more apt on the grass. At 10-1 she’s an interesting possibility.

Race 1      Turf:  8-4-10    Dirt:  4-1A-10

Race 2      1-4-7

Race 3      Turf: 2-7-8    Dirt: 3-14-2

Race 4      1-8-3

Race 5      Turf:  1/1A-4-8    Dirt:  5-11-2B-3

Race 6      2-1-3-8

Race 7      4-7-6-2

Race 8      Turf:  3-6-4-2    Dirt:  13-12-14

Race 9      6-11-1

Race 1      3-6-1

Race 2      3-5-7  (the 1 would be included on a wet track)

Race 3      Turf:  6-9-11    Dirt: 12-4-14

Race 4      9-6-3

Race 5      3-6-5

Race 6      Turf:  7-10-6-4    Dirt:  7-13-16-14

Race 7      3-2-5

Race 8      Turf:  6-7-10-2    Dirt:  13-15-3

Race 9      10-5-2-6

Looks like it’s likely to get wet tomorrow. Just depends on what time the storm rolls in. Selections for both turf and dirt.

Race 1      Turf: 10-1-3-9      Dirt: 16-15-10

Race 2       1/1A-3-5

Race 3      Turf: 6-10-1-11      Dirt: 13-14-8

Race 4      2-7-6

Race 5      1-2-3

Race 6      3-6-5-2

Race 7      Turf: 1-6-9      Dirt: 5-1A-3

Race 8      5-2-1-8

Race 9      Turf: 3-8-5      Dirt: 6-16-15

Race 1      3-4-7

This is a cheap race and a lot of the starters are destined to be at this level a while. Frankly, part of the reason they are running at this level is that they are unreliable. Buyer beware. McKenzie’s Way gets the nod for a few reasons. He was claimed by DJ three back and has come close in low level claimers since. His last race was at half this price at LRL but don’t be fooled – it’s the same bottom level group he’s in today. He was also racing with much better earlier in the year. DJ is bringing him back in a week, and that may or may not be a great move, but he is 20% with those horses.  Grosero might be as close as we’ll come to a price in this race. At FL earlier this year he was tearing up the cheap claiming ranks. I’d be happier if he was back with Bruce Anderson, but Michael Aro is at least familiar with the horse. He’lll be near the front and may forget to back up. First Bid was grabbed by Contessa two back and he looks competitive with these horses. If you are playing the horizontals, you might want to contemplate the all button.

Race 2      5-6-1

This maiden claiming event for two year olds is another race where the horses that have already started look suspect and the first time starters don’t stand out. Wicked One is dropping out of MSW for top conditioner Mark Casse. Voided Contract was probably not on her best surface with the muddy BEL track but still ran well. Looking for improvement today. Kalabaka has two seconds in two starts and Violette is usually effective with young horses.

Race 3      3-6-2-7

Roccia d’Oro has two wins in Europe. He didn’t show well in a Group 2 in Italy but looked pretty good first time in America. Losing to Red Smith favorite and winner Mr. Maybe is nothing to be embarrassed about, and there is no Mr. Maybe in this race. He is the one to beat. Grey Wizard has a win at the distance. Last out he took the lead in the stretch and got passed late. Puts blinkers on today in an effort to focus. Coturnix was claimed three back by Abby Adsit and he’s been running open claimers at today’s price. He’s got a decent turn of foot and has a win at the distance and a second at AQU. At 15-1 he could make the verticals. Request has been looking for win number two for most of the last two years. He’s been no worse than fourth in the last year including a couple of nose loses. I’m not enamored with the horse in the win slot, especially at the odds, but he’d be hard to leave out of the verticals.

Race 4      6-5-3-10

Big Al Parker made an obvious improvement when dropped to the $40K level. Drops again AND moves from the turf to the dirt. He seems much better bred for the dirt and actually ran a decent race sprinting on the dirt earlier in the year. Looking at him for the value. Elusive New Yorker ran well in an off the turf sprint two back. Breeding suggests dirt may be the preferred surface and Rosario returns for the ride. Rich Dalone is developing the look for a horse that may prefer second to winning, but he has the figures to be competitive here. El Genio drops slightly for this run. He’s got plenty of speed and may be the one to catch.

Race 5      8-7-5-2

Successful Sweep steps up a notch but has been running well all year. She had been racing on the dirt all year until her last, a decent effort on the turf. She actually has a win on the turf and is well bred for the distance. Angel Choir is on a two race win streak and drops down a bit in the try for three in a row. Looks like the one to catch. Mobilize ships over from Laurel. She’s been seaching at the NW1X level for the second win and drops down to $35K. Figures say she’s got a big shot. Egyptian Magic won a NW2L by daylight in an off the turf affair and figures well here.

Race 6      1/1A-5-7

The Dominck Shettino entry of Heady Creek and Sean and Matt should be tough in this spot. Heady Creek just beat a $10K maiden field and shouldn’t be making much of a jump to this level. He had been totally non-competitive on the turf and the move to the dirt produced a different horse. Sean and Matt was a complete flop on the turf last out but prior to that ran a fair third in a $25K claimer. He hasn’t been any closer to this level than that race and should benefit from the drop. Sourcesandmethodshas been popular at the claiming box lately. He just missed at the $16K level two back and lost to Pin and Win and the now infamous Bossmon, Roy Sedlacek’s horse who ran on AH-7921. Figures well with this group. All My Trails drops almost in half for this run and his best recent run came in an off the turf affair on a muddy track.

Race 7      3-9-7

Fourstar Crook won an open MSW last out for the deadly duo of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She drops into a state-bred NW1X today and given she’s got the fastest last race figure, she looks solid in the win slot. Hillaryinthehouse has been knocking at this level and might have been the favorite if not for Fourstar Crook. Hasn’t been around two turns but is well enough bred for the distance. Forever for Always has been knocking around looking for win number two for a few months. Has been close enough to get some consideration at  15-1 ML.

Race 8      2-4-5-8

Heaven’s Runway stumbled at the start of the Bold Ruler, rushed to the front, dueled all the way but faded at the end. Had a win in a restricted stakes at DEL in July and gets an interesting jockey switch to Alvarado here. Green Gratto dueled with Heaven’s Runway in the Bold Ruler but the 7F distance proved too tough. His best shot is at 6F and he gets the cutback today. We’ll see who wins the duel this time. Marriedtothemusic is almost 50% at the distance and 2 for 2 at AQU. Certainly worth a look at 12-1. This race is filled with speed and it looks like the best closer should be Joking. One to consider coming at the end.

Race 9      5-7-3-8

Secure Access improved when moved to the turf and has the best last race figure. Laquesta is the likely front runner and will have to be caught. She’s fast enough and courageous enough to make a race of it. Pay the Kitten goes for Chad Brown who is 31% second time out. Improvement puts her right there. My Dinah Lee goes second time for Mott who is not known for his proficiency with first timers. He stretches her out today and Chris DeCarlo should be sticking with Laquesta early.

After yesterday’s results I’m wondering if most of us aren’t swimming upstream at AQU. I was especially taken by the crowd in the Red Smith. They made Mr. Maybe a 2-1 favorite against War Dancer, Kaigun, and Mr. Speaker. After the scratch of Great DancerI thought Mr. Maybe would be the value play (see yesterday’s blog). Honestly I was wavering about whether to take him at 5-1, his ML price, but at 2-1 it either meant the crowd had lost it’s collective sanity, or they provided the very definition of a synergy. It turns out all the big money was on a Chad Brown runner that had just won an OC $62K race. When the crowd is that smart, it’s going to be hard to make a buck. In nine races, other than the fluke in the second, the highest odds of the day were 9/2. It was a rarity, but I found no horses that looked like overlays in the entire card.  We’ll give it another try today.

Race 1      1-2-7

Hard to say if this race will produce a price, but the horses that have started do not look particularly superior. Mo d’Amour is a first timer for Todd Pletcher. Uncle Mo’s progeny have run well this year and the workouts look like typical Pletcher. Carella has two fair starts and gets Lasix today. Albertrani is not usually known for early success so the horse can get upgraded today. Rayella was sold for $170K off a $7,500 stud fee. Couple of sharp works suggest she’s in the mix.

Race 2      2-5-6

This has the appearance of a race any of the starters can win. Bird Prince just won for $25K and was claimed by Abby Adsit who is pretty fair with her claims. I’m banking that she keeps the horse rolling. Despite running for modest claiming tags, Aleander has been competitive in almost all his 2015 races and just won a $25K NW3 last out. He’s got two wins and two shows in four starts at AQU. Point Hope came off a short layoff to destroy a field last out. Came back with a good work two weeks ago and should be well recovered from the effort off the layoff.

Race 3      6-8-5

This is a pretty sad group all in all, with only one horse garnering his two wins in less than 10 races. Reach for Yield was grabbed by Michelle Nevin last out and she is 25% first off the claim. He’s got a good turn of foot and a win at the distance. Police Camp has run lifetime best figures in his last two starts and should be one of the horses coming toward the end. His last win was at the $40K level and at his best he’s competitive here.Talbot County is listed at 15-1 ML. He’s been racing at much higher price levels and has a win at $40K this year. Worth a look at the price.

Race 4      1/1A-6-8

She Is My Hero goes for Andrew Lakeman. Of the two she looks the weaker but she did show some speed last out when the blinkers went on and may be on the improve. Stoneheartedlover has been knocking around at this level a while and has the figures to compete with this group. Phocea ran a good second in a race where the jockey lost his whip and gets a big switch to Irad for this trip. Could be the move that puts him over the top. Mohawk Lily has been close without winning in a third of her starts. Goes back to Cancel who rode her well the one time he was up.

Ra ce 5      3-2-7-9

Jumpin Frac Flash made a serious price drop at the Meadowlands after struggling at the $50K level. He’s good enough to compete with this group. In Trouble makes a big drop to the $25K level and if he runs his best he’s got a big shot here. Chang’s Secret has run well in turf sprints and stretches out today. Given his speed he may be a factor. Celebrity Warrior has been running well in NJ and fits the conditions.

Race 6      1-7-3

You Got It has been gelded since his last start and is dropping from MSW to $40K. His first race says he can run with this group and Ru Rod is good with the drop to MCL. Zababa is another dropping from MSW and showed speed first time out. Asmussen is 24% second time out. Littlebitadominic goes second time for Linda Rice and she is usually better on the second start. He adds blinkers today.

Race 7      1-6-8-3

Sea Coast ran lights out first time in the states. If he runs that race he’s the winner. My Cara Mia takes the blinkers off after running a dull race with them on. Prior to that she won an allowance and finished a length and a half out in the Riskaverse. Neck of the Moon dead heated for third in the Ticonderoga and prior to that won at the NW1X level. Figures say he’s competitive. Fresh Feline comes off a bunch of consistently good races at the OC level. He’s run well on the turf and looks to transfer that to the dirt.

Race 8      6-3-7

Sherifa has plenty of speed and cuts back to seven furlongs. He’s run well at AQU and Linda Rice is good off the short layoff. Old Harbor has run well in state bred turf events and looks to make a splash on the dirt. He has a win and a second in two starts on the dirt. He’s definitely one of the classier runners. Saythreehailmary’s has done well at this level and is three of three in the money at AQU.

Race 9      6-8-2-5

Purim Party has shown speed in his last two and at 12-1 is worth a look. Loose Money has closed well in his last two, including a MSW. Should be coming again today. Plundering has been knocking on the door without getting through. One more chance today. River Knight is another with speed who just can’t seem to kick past the winner. As usual, he will be the one to catch.

I’m expecting we’ll be back on the turf today. The fist three races have five horse fields, so I’m not going to spend much time doing analysis.

Race 1      2-3-1

Race 2      4-1-3

Race 3       2-5-3

Race 4       3-1-9

The scratch of Boss Man changes the race slightly. Harpoon was a winner in a $25K starter handicap last out at the Medowlands and returns to the NY circuit today. He’ls not been as happy winning as finishing second, If he’s gotten the winning idea he has a good chance here. The Steve Klesaris entry of Three for Me and Frogman Mel look very strong here. Three for Me has been running well in 2015, not running a bad race until his last one when he checked sharply. Frogman Mel has had a good 2015 and has a win over the AQU turf. Elroi is the best closer in the field and should be doing his best running in the stretch.

Race 5      4-3-1

Governor Malibu comes off a 3rd place finish in the Sleepy Hollow at today’s distance. He’s been improving with each race and gets first Lasix today. Mind Your Biscuits stretches out today after finishing a dull third in a state-bred stakes sprint. This is a much weaker field and he is competitive here. Holdtherightcards has finished midpack in a couple of state-bred MSW and may catch a slice.

Race 6      9-6-1

Indebted comes from Woodbine where he ran evenly in the Toronto Cup. He certainly fits at this level and should appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Disco Partner didn’t like the mud in the Allied Forces but when he got back to the turf ran a big one. Looks primed to continue today. Rock Eagle was closing with interest in his last race and given the short number of career starts has lots of room for improvement.

Race 7      The Red Smith Handicap (G3)

One of the principles I attach to turf races is that Grade 1 horses are superior to Grade 2 horses which are superior to Grade 3 horses. The exception to that rule is a three year old that improves late in the season. The questions are, who are the higher level horses, and are there any three year olds that fit the bill. To start, there is only one three year old in the field, Great Dancer. Great Dancer arrived here from Ireland and was given to the care of James Lawrence. Lawrence is not a high percentage trainer and that counts against the horse. However, Great Dancer has improved with each start in the U.S. and ran his best figure since arriving here in the Grade 2 Hill Prince. The fact that the race was on a soft turf is another point in his favor. That may be offset by the fact that he’s never been the distance, and his breeding doesn’t suggest improvement with longer races. The final point in his favor is the jockey, Kenneth Carmouche, who has been as hot as any rider at this meet. For me the bottom line is this. Yes, he’s got a chance, especially considering we haven’t likely seen his best. The 20-1 ML odds indicate you could get a substantial reward for taking the chance. But realistically, you are taking a chance on a horse that hasn’t been proven at the class or the distance and banking on sharp improvement from a trainer that hasn’t been inspiring. I’d feel fine about using the horse in the verticals, and depending on how the odds break maybe a small win bet, but I’ll admit there would be an element of gambling in the bet. War Dancer is a solid Grade 2 horse that has been competitive against the top Grade 1 horses, including Slumber, Twilight Eclipse, Big Blue Kitten, Red Rifle, and Flintshire. He has a couple of positives. First, he likes to run toward the front, and in a race with very little speed, that will be an advantage. Second, he’s proven at the distance. The down side? His last two races look like he’s starting on the down side of his form cycle. He has Bill Mott and top turf rider Jose Lezcano going for him, and he’s had a month to get ready for this one. If he runs back to his spring/summer races, he tops the field. You’ll have to answer the question of whether he’ll regain that form, but you leave him out at your own peril. St. Albans boy looks a cut below the best in here, but he will do well at the distance. Iron Power is mildly dangerous because he has shown a lot of ability to set the early pace. Lately Clement has asked the horse to press, but it really looks like if he is to have any chance, he’ll revert to the front-running ways. Kaigun is another solid Grade 2 horse with plenty of experience with Grade 1 horses. His last two starts at Woodbine returned two nice figures. The Canadian International gave him experience at a mile and a half, an eighth of a mile longer than today’s distance. Mark Casse is a top trainer in Canada or the U.S. Definitely a contender here. Mr. Speaker is another solid Grade 2 horse, and has a victory in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby at a mile and a quarter. Shug McGaughey finally seems to have the horse on the right path, and off his best he is a deserving favorite. Holiday Star is not outless, but he seems to be a Grade 3 horse at best. His last two Grade 3 wins came in the Sycamore at Keeneland and he looks in the second tier. Mr. Maybe is the X-factor horse. He doesn’t show any graded races, but he did switch to Chad Brown who got him to win immediately at today’s distance. That race was an OC $62K, so he’s got a lot to prove, but he might be worth a thought in the back holes. Charming Kitten is without a graded win in the last two years, and although he gave Holiday Star a run for his money in the Sycamore, he doesn’t inspire me. The race comes down to three groups. The solid Grade 2 horses are Kaigun, Mr. Speaker and War Dancer, and I’ll select them in that order. Great Dancer is the improving three year old, and Mr. Maybe could be any sort now that Chad Brown has taken over the training duties. For me the most likely winner is one of the top three, but the value may lie in the other two.

Race 8      9-3-5

Ogermeister does have two wins, but 7 place finishes. He’s always competitive but often fails in the stretch. Still, should be part of the picture today. Howaboutwe  is coming in off a two race win streak, albeit at FL. He seems to be in top shape and Englehart is a great manager of getting his horses in the right spot. Adirondack Posse moved to the dirt to break his maiden and ran a decent race in his first with winners. Looks to be on the improve and should compete here.

Race 9       5-1-7

Bank Float has been competitive with much better in the recent past and looks like the strength of this field. The Imposter ran well after the claim by Joe Sharp, just missing at a lower level. He stetches out today but shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance. Should pass the test today. Chunnel comes off a win at a level down from here but has run well with better in the past.

No selections posted today. I’ve had a plumbing emergency and will be spending the day taking care of that. I’ll be back with picks tomorrow.