Race 1      3-4-7

This is a cheap race and a lot of the starters are destined to be at this level a while. Frankly, part of the reason they are running at this level is that they are unreliable. Buyer beware. McKenzie’s Way gets the nod for a few reasons. He was claimed by DJ three back and has come close in low level claimers since. His last race was at half this price at LRL but don’t be fooled – it’s the same bottom level group he’s in today. He was also racing with much better earlier in the year. DJ is bringing him back in a week, and that may or may not be a great move, but he is 20% with those horses.  Grosero might be as close as we’ll come to a price in this race. At FL earlier this year he was tearing up the cheap claiming ranks. I’d be happier if he was back with Bruce Anderson, but Michael Aro is at least familiar with the horse. He’lll be near the front and may forget to back up. First Bid was grabbed by Contessa two back and he looks competitive with these horses. If you are playing the horizontals, you might want to contemplate the all button.

Race 2      5-6-1

This maiden claiming event for two year olds is another race where the horses that have already started look suspect and the first time starters don’t stand out. Wicked One is dropping out of MSW for top conditioner Mark Casse. Voided Contract was probably not on her best surface with the muddy BEL track but still ran well. Looking for improvement today. Kalabaka has two seconds in two starts and Violette is usually effective with young horses.

Race 3      3-6-2-7

Roccia d’Oro has two wins in Europe. He didn’t show well in a Group 2 in Italy but looked pretty good first time in America. Losing to Red Smith favorite and winner Mr. Maybe is nothing to be embarrassed about, and there is no Mr. Maybe in this race. He is the one to beat. Grey Wizard has a win at the distance. Last out he took the lead in the stretch and got passed late. Puts blinkers on today in an effort to focus. Coturnix was claimed three back by Abby Adsit and he’s been running open claimers at today’s price. He’s got a decent turn of foot and has a win at the distance and a second at AQU. At 15-1 he could make the verticals. Request has been looking for win number two for most of the last two years. He’s been no worse than fourth in the last year including a couple of nose loses. I’m not enamored with the horse in the win slot, especially at the odds, but he’d be hard to leave out of the verticals.

Race 4      6-5-3-10

Big Al Parker made an obvious improvement when dropped to the $40K level. Drops again AND moves from the turf to the dirt. He seems much better bred for the dirt and actually ran a decent race sprinting on the dirt earlier in the year. Looking at him for the value. Elusive New Yorker ran well in an off the turf sprint two back. Breeding suggests dirt may be the preferred surface and Rosario returns for the ride. Rich Dalone is developing the look for a horse that may prefer second to winning, but he has the figures to be competitive here. El Genio drops slightly for this run. He’s got plenty of speed and may be the one to catch.

Race 5      8-7-5-2

Successful Sweep steps up a notch but has been running well all year. She had been racing on the dirt all year until her last, a decent effort on the turf. She actually has a win on the turf and is well bred for the distance. Angel Choir is on a two race win streak and drops down a bit in the try for three in a row. Looks like the one to catch. Mobilize ships over from Laurel. She’s been seaching at the NW1X level for the second win and drops down to $35K. Figures say she’s got a big shot. Egyptian Magic won a NW2L by daylight in an off the turf affair and figures well here.

Race 6      1/1A-5-7

The Dominck Shettino entry of Heady Creek and Sean and Matt should be tough in this spot. Heady Creek just beat a $10K maiden field and shouldn’t be making much of a jump to this level. He had been totally non-competitive on the turf and the move to the dirt produced a different horse. Sean and Matt was a complete flop on the turf last out but prior to that ran a fair third in a $25K claimer. He hasn’t been any closer to this level than that race and should benefit from the drop. Sourcesandmethodshas been popular at the claiming box lately. He just missed at the $16K level two back and lost to Pin and Win and the now infamous Bossmon, Roy Sedlacek’s horse who ran on AH-7921. Figures well with this group. All My Trails drops almost in half for this run and his best recent run came in an off the turf affair on a muddy track.

Race 7      3-9-7

Fourstar Crook won an open MSW last out for the deadly duo of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. She drops into a state-bred NW1X today and given she’s got the fastest last race figure, she looks solid in the win slot. Hillaryinthehouse has been knocking at this level and might have been the favorite if not for Fourstar Crook. Hasn’t been around two turns but is well enough bred for the distance. Forever for Always has been knocking around looking for win number two for a few months. Has been close enough to get some consideration at  15-1 ML.

Race 8      2-4-5-8

Heaven’s Runway stumbled at the start of the Bold Ruler, rushed to the front, dueled all the way but faded at the end. Had a win in a restricted stakes at DEL in July and gets an interesting jockey switch to Alvarado here. Green Gratto dueled with Heaven’s Runway in the Bold Ruler but the 7F distance proved too tough. His best shot is at 6F and he gets the cutback today. We’ll see who wins the duel this time. Marriedtothemusic is almost 50% at the distance and 2 for 2 at AQU. Certainly worth a look at 12-1. This race is filled with speed and it looks like the best closer should be Joking. One to consider coming at the end.

Race 9      5-7-3-8

Secure Access improved when moved to the turf and has the best last race figure. Laquesta is the likely front runner and will have to be caught. She’s fast enough and courageous enough to make a race of it. Pay the Kitten goes for Chad Brown who is 31% second time out. Improvement puts her right there. My Dinah Lee goes second time for Mott who is not known for his proficiency with first timers. He stretches her out today and Chris DeCarlo should be sticking with Laquesta early.